Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mod LIb/2093
I have made my point.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:51 am
This from one of the founding members of the “Cult of Rudd”.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:52 am
This thing about showering with the door open has me puzzled.
I always shower with the bathroom door open in case any other member of the household wants to use the bathroom for other purposes such as cleaning their teeth.
But of course such an innocent interpretation is beyond the media.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:53 am
If you vote green and give your second preference to ALP you are an ALP voter in my book (unless you are in Bandt’s seat, but thats the only one!).
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:53 am
by Space Kidette on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:54 am
smithe – If your still reading – can the Federal Court refer the complaint about Slipper to FWA ???
by CTar1 on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:55 am
Mod Lib obviously thinks the innuendo surrounding Peter Slipper is all Julia Gillard’s fault.
Hey Mod Lib, how long do you think it would take the media to get rid of Abbott if they wanted to?
Wow, they have got so much information to go by, what, from his chauvenist pig personality and swearing to his $10.5 bil black hole!
What do you reckon?
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:56 am
Nah, its more like a $70B question. Will be interesting to see if any “journo’s” have the balls to track that one down?
by imacca on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:57 am
Gary @ 2101
Another of your glib one liners.
I have often said I regarded Rudd as having flaws and making mistakes and even listed some.
This stands in start contrast to the cultist to whom Julia is perfection personified. It is rather like the Catholic Church and the cult of Mary.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:57 am
Excuse me, but I never mentioned the victim. I mentioned the journalist (the serial liar, Lewis), the untested court documents (what else are court documents for, if not to be tested?), the Murdoch tactic of using all their mastheads to make it look like a story is being universally covered, and journalists interviewing journalists.
I also mentioned the provenance of the leak: if the documents were not leaked by an officer of the court (illegally), or by one of the plaintiff’s lawyers (improperly) then WHO leaked them? It must have been the plaintiff himself.
If Ashby was the leaker, he started court proceedings and then abandoned them to the gossip tabloids, all in one fell swoop, as the tabloids had the story on the evening of the day the documents were filed.
Who is paying his legal fees? They will be huge. What of the timing? Murdoch journalists on Insiders were already crying crocodile tears over how good a week it had been for the government and then (without a hint of irony) lamenting that it was all ruined: not just the week, but the entire Budget session to come.
There is a lot more to this story yet to come.
I am not panicking. To the contrary I am staying cool and calm in looking behind the story and into its mechanics.
Something really stinks here, and its not just the allegations. It’s the story’s timing, its provenance, it financing, it’s spruiking and the co-ordinated bootstrap that seems to be involved in turning it into not just a political crisis, but a nation-shattering Constitutional one, with 24 hours of its release.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:58 am
@Bushfire Bill; the Media coordination is absolute. As you point out it all appeared as close to simultaneously as is possible. Yet there are deeper implications which may cause the whole episode to disappear faster than UteGare. wp.me/p1gCe-62g
by archie on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:59 am
Victoria
Depends on what is involved. If mr ashby is claiming injuries doctors will be engaged on all sides which create a big delay. If a long hearing is required, 5 days plus, then unless the court is quiet, a hearing will be allocated months after the case is ready.
At the moment in the supreme court in Sydney, cases which are ready for hearing face a 6 month lag for allocation.
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:00 pm
But accurate.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:00 pm
As for Slipper’s travel rorts: here’s Tony Abbott defence of those 20th August 2010 2:00 AM: Abbott defends Slipper’s travel
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:00 pm
@ Bushfire Bill, Oops – I should show my interest in posting this link http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2012/04/22/james-ashby-sues-the-implications/
by archie on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Hey, maybe Peter Slipper will plead “I can’t recall”.
John Howard “I can’t recall”.
Alexander Downer “I can’t recall”.
The former Nats Leader (forgot his name) “I can’t recall”.
But that was not an important issue was it. Selling wheat to your enemy
Your lot are a disgrace!
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Seems strange that there are no mentions of Mal Brough while this is going on (the other player Alex Somlyay is likely to be busy writing his book – “How Brough got back into Parliament” right now ready for instant publication after the next election).
by CTar1 on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Don’t ya just love those that want to get on here and tell you what you should be thinking. Bemused and Mod Lib are past masters at it.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Abbott on News24 news report
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:02 pm
Gary @ 2112
Totally discredited by the facts.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:02 pm
Classic.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:03 pm
What a load of crap Mod Lib, BB makes more sense in one post than you make in 20,the Liberals cosseted Slipper for 20 yrs covered up for him and more than likely other things as well.
And you blame Gillard,Lewis and NEWS LTD have form, remember Ute Gate that to was a rolled gold load of bullshit,that backfired badly,well pal given the antecedents of this story it may well do so again.
If it is wrong with luck it will speed up the demise of Lewis and NEWS LTD who are a proven bunch of liars along with Abbott,the whole thing stinks of a conspiracy between NEWS the Claimant and the LNP in QLD ,in a state that the LNP has a reputation for crooked Government and bending the Law its understandable.
If it is wrong Slipper will be a very rich man
by John Ryan on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Gary @ 2117
I don’t tell anyone what to think. In fact I have made it clear on numerous occasions that I welcome diversity and tolerance.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Centre, yesterday, Arfur Sinodinos also said: “I can’t recall” when asked about Slipper in 2003
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:04 pm
ML
My only fault appears to be that I believe what you say!
If I’m wrong to do so, I apologise.
by zoomster on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Then what’s with this “Cult of Julia” BS? A term coined by you I might add.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:05 pm
bemused
Your continued anti-catholic theme is puts you in the BoerWar class for pushing barrows.
by CTar1 on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:05 pm
I think it’s pop corn time and I hope it brings down Abbott.
I reckob ut will be the money trail, there has to be a lot of money going in funny places to make this happen.
by fredn on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Mark Vaile “I can’t recall”.
Do you think that Howard should have stood down over the AWB scandal, Mod Lib?
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:07 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Gary @ 2125
It is the description of a form of behaviour exhibited by some where the object of the cult receives blind adulation and is seen to be infallible.
This contrasts with real world experience where all human beings have strengths and weakness and don’t always get everything right.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Abbott trying to put the Boot in.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:09 pm
So you use it to do what?
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:09 pm
And this is something that needs to get investigated, and will be if the media is actually doing the job that the public expect of a free press, rather than supporting its owners interests to the exclusion of all else.
And take an Ooppo leader with it??
by imacca on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Bemused
Easy to come up with innocent explanations for being told to shower with the door open…
The exhaust fan doesn’t work; you’re trying to converse with someone; the door latch doesn’t work properly (visitors regularly become trapped in ours, for that reason) — context is always important!
by zoomster on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Abbott has again called for Slipper to step aside. Claims it puts in question the PM’s judgement and integrity.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:10 pm
No protests from Mod Lib I gather?
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:10 pm
CTar1 @ 2126
I can’t recall ever having much to say about the Catholic Church. I am married to a Catholic and there are many Catholics in the family. I think some Catholics are to be greatly admired. e.g. Father Peter Norden. So to call me anti-Catholic is a bit of a stretch.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:11 pm
I think Abbott has bought the media hype on Insiders. hehehehe
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Gary @ 2132
No further explanation should be needed.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Also, the allegations may not even be true.
I know this sounds to some to be “desperate” and “panicking”, but that is precisely what court proceedings set out to establish.
The process has been somewhat ruined by the appearance that the plaintiff himself has cruelled his own case by going prematurely public.
Many here seem to have forgotten that.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Waste of time slagging off the lawyers.
Harmers are probably leading industrial law firm in Oz for workers and employers alike.
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:16 pm
You and I know very well what it is designed to do. To denigrate and/or to “wake those people up” to the “reality”. Ie to change their minds. Come on bemused, you can say it.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:16 pm
zoomster @ 2134
Exactly!
I suppose it could have meant leaving the shower screen open but in most places that would make a wet messy floor and no sense at all. Unlikely.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:16 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/21/pa-priest-trial-painful-p_n_1443041.html
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Gary @ 2142
You are being ridiculous. Are you into conspiracy theories?
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:18 pm
I’m filling in the blank. One that you refuse to fill in. I just wonder why.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:19 pm
And still no glum picture of Slipper on Yahoo7 on-line.
Something not quite right here. Why aren’t they going in boots and all? A ready made s-x scandal in the making – whether true, not true or just gossip?
They must know something in that newsroom.
True to say the ABC/AAP updates are there but no glum pictures!
I am loosing my faith in the conservative media.
When the glum pictures come I will be happier they are running true to form.
by Tricot on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Bemused cults go well beyond loyaty,
I feel u are overusing the word.
So the difference beyween be loyal and cultisim is a big big call
I know u like to bate people that also has name.
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Gary @ 2146
Go for it! Fill in as many blanks as you like, but don’t attribute it to me.
I don’t see any blanks I need to fill in.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 12:21 pm