Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
It’s such an inspiring idea … and it is the most likely reason that we’ve had Bomber, Latham and Rudd – and now the accidental ‘try to convert any positives’ PM.
by CTar1 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Opposition has started campaign to get votes on a no confidence motion by the sounds of things.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Barking
And yet we have Wilkie grandly announcing that he will rewithdraw his support, which indicates that hell froze over and has since rethawed….ot that Wilkie hasn’t been quite as miffed as he made out.
by zoomster on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Outsider
this is my understanding as well, and well said.
by sprocket_ on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:08 pm
No evidence as of yet.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:09 pm
I think that the government has a better chance of keeping Wilkie on side if it moves quickly to support suspension of Slipper. It’s all getting a bit sleazy and the moral high ground is the way to go and I’d be amazed if Wilkie abandoned Labor if Slipper is suspended with ALP support/initiative. Please Julia – don’t entrap yourself again with words and promises!
by Mick77 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:09 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:10 pm
zoomstar
i am sure you are right, and do know some people within – the GAP (great australian public) do not know this – i suspect there is a huge seismic reorganisation to occur if you are right – let people leave – better than being pushed or sunk a la queensland. you might ask your contacts why the party esp JG could not control its leader if there was a problem. but as has been discussed here repeatedly there is no justification: whatever swan and crean and your contacts – you dont depose a first term PM – what is hard to understand?
the debate on june 2010 is a bit past tense – but its consequences and outcome are still in play, whatever anyone inside or outside the party might chose to think … and yes, there was considerable spin and unacceptable vilification of rudd – not clever politics at all.
by geoffrey on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:10 pm
by sprocket_ on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Afternoon All!
Have spent the day (between washing sheets and cleaning floors) on twitter, and watching the nonsense over Slipper.
One thing is patently obvious – this was deliberately timed to take the gloss off ALP’s Aged Care package so that govt cannot get a poll boost from it.
It has become a ‘clockwork’ action. ALP makes good policy move, NewsLtd comes out (often via Lewis) with a beat up that gets all the public attention, followed immediately by a ‘righteous’ statement from Tony Abbott “calling on … (insert whomever – govt. GG. PM???) to act”
This is getting beyond a joke. And people who have ANY conscience need to boycott NewsLtd and stand up for democratic processes.
I am getting so angry and frustrated that the message is continually being hijacked by a corporation that is intent on regime change, NOT for the betterment of the country, but for greedy and personal profit.
What is happening to our democratic process is both unconscionable and highly destructive. The lies are forcing timepoor Australians to vote against their own best interests.
The kind of propaganda devices being used reminds me (from my historical research/education) very much of Germany in the late 1920s/early 1930s. THAT kind of action from political organisations led the world to the brink of destruction.
Just because Australia is far removed from the rest of the world, doesn’t make it any less dangerous. We are a beacon of freedom and ‘good fortune’. This ‘creature’ Abbott and his cronies at NewsLtd is getting very close to completely destroying us.
This Slipper thing, and the Thomson thing are just symptoms of a greater, nastier pattern. EVERYONE who has a progressive, freedom-loving bone in their bodies need to decide to take a stand and STOP this deliberate attempt to subvert power.
It wouldn’t matter who was leading Labor — the r-w loony LIBS are trying to prevent progressive and egalitarian policies from taking hold. If Rudd was in charge the same thing would be happening (so all you Ruddites need to take a pill and realise the REAL situation).
We either lay down and allow these vested interests to win, or we make a stand and start fighting it! Not just by posting to blogs. Start spreading the word. Start investigating. Start gathering evidence of the pattern above (policies/dates/headlines/how much they are lying/double standards etc. etc. etc.) And lets start using it!
by jenauthor on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:13 pm
News24
Has Slipper stepping aside on Breaking
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:13 pm
BTW The Slipper affair is not about gays, it’s about (if anything) the pressure that employees may be subject to in order to satisfy a boss’s personal desires. There are thousands of such instances and a few make the headlines because whistle-blowers/victims/lowly workers can be easily intimidated and in such a high-profile Court filing, the government must show moral concern and leadership.
by Mick77 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:14 pm
I hear on the radio this morning that Tony Windsor won;t support the Coalition on this havn’t heard on Oakey
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Wilkie is going to be very happy
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Geoffrey
I don’t indulge in Ruddegeniration on this site, but in realities.
Your assertion was that a Ruddstoration is possible.
It isn’t.
Whether that,s good or bad is another issue.
by zoomster on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:15 pm
OPT @ 2293
Enjoying latin and using it in everyday communications is not the same thing.
My senior partners view of this was bought home to me when I was asked by my then OH’s uncle to confirm what his company’s board ‘thought’ their solicitors were saying …
by CTar1 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:15 pm
OzPol Tragic
I too was outraged (well only mildly) at the “insult” to latin words. At school it was compulsory for the first three years. At the time it seemed utterly pointless. However in the following years I became very grateful due to it helping understand alot of “sciency” words. Also, loving language (Does nay mean I’m any good at it though ) I loved recognising latin based words in our language. My first being in an external exam asking about Silviculture.
The first conjugation I learnt.
So for you porto portas portat portamus portatus portant
by poroti on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Wrong jenauthor – nothing to do with RW conspiracies, certainly not in this instance.
by Mick77 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Let’s do the numbers folks. 150 MPs. 72 Labor, 71 Coalition, plus 7 others: Crook, Katter, Wilkie, Bandt, Slipper, Oakeshott and Windsor.
Let’s say Abbott moves a motion of no-confidence in Slipper (who, as speaker, doesn’t have a vote). Labor needs 3 indies to vote with them to defeat the motion. Which of Windsor, Oakeshott and Bandt would switch camps to support the motion?
From what I have seen, none of them, so far, have shown any inclination to take such an action?
Slipper may have many faults. But what is the basis for any attempt to remove him as speaker? A series of uncorroborated allegations by an accuser with a colorful past? Because its what Abetz wants? Or abbott? I don’t think so. This will move on pretty quickly, unless there is more that is yet to be revealed.
by Outsider on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Will Wilkie yet become Speaker. Maybe Crook or Katter.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Outsider @ 2318
“Suspend” not remove. There’s a difference and it is almost standard practice in corporate governance.
by Mick77 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Major injury to Rohan of Swans team. Appears around ankle.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:19 pm
poroti
What! Not amo amas amat?
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Sorry. I missed the posts indicating that Slipper will step aside.
What are the odds on him rejoining the LNP?
Or supporting Abbott on anything?
by Outsider on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:21 pm
So until the rest has been decided we are going to see Anna Burke in the Speakers Chair on May 8.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:22 pm
NIL!.
by 1934pc on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Outsider @ 2323
Chances of his supporting LNP are zero – Slipper becomes the mirror image of Mal Coulston
by Mick77 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Slipper has done the proper thing.
by davidwh on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:23 pm
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Just like Mary Jo didn’t.
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:26 pm
poroti
Where did you go to school? I don’t mean the name, just was it in Australia or elsewhere? I’m interested because in Scotland the first conjugation we learnt was amo amas amat, etc.
I loved Latin and was surprised when the family came to Australia to see how “popular” it was here. I went from a school with two classrooms of around 30 pupils each to whatever room happened to be vacant with myself and two girls from Germany as the only pupils! Our teacher was also the deputy head and was usually off doing something else so he just threw a lesson at us as he went past the door and hoped for the best! We must have been ok though as all three of us got A’s in the Leaving Certificate.
by Allan Moyes on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Any coaliton supporter who thinks abbott will ever get the numbers for a no confidence is not living on this planet
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:27 pm
OPT & Poroti
I give up! Debating declension etc. should bring out our moderator with his ‘Snip‘ power.
by CTar1 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Guytaur
looks that way – virtually the status quo – slipper to sit on the cross bench – he will support the govt. on votes.
by Lyne Lady on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Slipper is standing aside for the alleged “Fraud” (which is potentially criminal) of some $180 taxi vouchers (we were told) – that’s my take
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:28 pm
The Oops will be delighted to have Anna Burke in the Chair, I don’t think.
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Looks like Mr Slipper has decided to stand aside.
I bet News Ltd and others were hoping for him to stay in the position. They would have had a complete campaign ready to go based on that. In fact,News had already started.
He has now pulled the rug out from under them. The government now has the perfect case. Let the matter take its course.
FWIW, I think Mr Slipper has too much respect for the position and its history to do anything to bring it into question. i think this shows it.
As well, I think this will be good for the government on other levels as well.
Firstly, the public would believe that it was in the power of the PM to “hire and fire ” the speaker, no matter what the truth is. This will “show ” to them that she has taken action even thgough the decision was made by Mr Slipper.
Secondly, the budget will be back in the picture as a issue. Not what some would have wanted.
What line of attack can News and the tories have left on this ?
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:29 pm
CTar,
Now, about Latin conjugation …
Those verbie thingies.
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:30 pm
TLBD… love it!!!
by Lyne Lady on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:32 pm
I suggest as well of Mr Slipper is making the point re the difference between civil and criminal that once the AFP clear up the matter of cabcharge he will be back.
Seems he must be very confident on that issue.
I do not think this is what News ltd and the tories were seeking.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:32 pm
of = if at @2339
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Mickk 77 another lib turns up, for afternoon tea.
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Very sloppy of #TheirABC, very sloppy.
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:33 pm
OPT – I still love non compos mentis. It is just perfect.
by BH on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Allan Moyes @ 2330
Snap! But apparently forbidden to discuss here. Which is hilarious considering some of the other scuttlebutt quoted
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:34 pm
tldb – Latin plurals/verbs. Who cares? Interesting and sometimes fun but plain English is a better modern communication medium.
Proof? We’re speaking it.
by CTar1 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Doyley
Gosh i think mr,slipper has thought this through, and come to your conclusion,
But who is now deputy speaker
What about pyne lol
Seriously is that a worry,
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:36 pm
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Oh how I love the persistent memory of the internet:
I was charged with indecent assualt – Tony Abbott. And for extra sauce check out the author.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/17/1089694611809.html
by Space Kidette on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:37 pm
mari
I saw them. Gotta keep spirits up until the event people have waited decades for actually happens.Here is a trailer for the main event. The music will (probably) not be to your taste but you will support the subtitles, So watch with sound turned down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC3hU2bItTs
by poroti on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:37 pm