Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
geoffrey,
Kevin Rudd will never be accepted back as parliamentary leader of the federal Labor Party. He will forevermore be seen by them as what he is-a Labor Rat. He attempted to sabotage the 2010 election campaign and almost succeeded. I don’t think he will even be Opposition Leader after 2013,if the party loses the election. Hopefully, as planned by the LNP,he will lose his seat.
I have no doubts he will turn up as yet another anti-Labor Party commentator in the media like other Labor Rats, such as Graham Richardson and Gary Johns. He is that type of individual. He is only where he is today, and where he will stay, on the backbench, under sufferance. And no end of tawdry, treacly sweet campaigning in the media by Rudd and his traitorous fan club will change that. The Labor Party was Rudd’s vehicle to power, nothing more, nothing less. Pity he flogged the guts out of the vehicle when he was in the driver’s seat. And you can take my word for it, I am that insider you say you will believe. Other than his rusted on rump in the party, and contrary to your assertions he was defeated soundly in the recent leadership ballot, the federal parliamentary members of the Labor Party would rather eat broken glass and a million poor Newspolls, than allow themselves to be ridden roughshod over again by that man and his vainglorious ego.
Frankly, if he thinks he’s all that, let him start his own political party. See how far he gets. Maybe you might join, as you have so much faith in his messianic powers? Pity Tony Abbott has already got his number. Which he does not yet have for Julia Gillard, despite the full force of the media and the multiple hurdles and confected outrages that Abbott’s Opposition have put in her way, and the lily-livered prevarication of supposed ALP supporters such as yourself.
Geoffrey, grow a pair for the ALP, if you believe that they are the best team to be running this country. Kevin had his chance, and screwed up royally, despite being given almost carte blanche by the federal parliamentary party.
He’s not the messiah. He’s just a naughty little boy. Believe me.
The ALP are in the fight of their lives against the plutocratic forces and their minions in the Conservative political parties, and the very future of Progressive Egalitarianism depends on all hands being on deck to fight against them. And the fight begins in the home of the biggest of them, Rupert Murdoch. Here in Australia. Tony Abbott, and all who serve with him, are Rupert’s men and women. Those who work for Murdoch & at the ABC, who just this week has been adjudged to be even more overtly partisan Right Wing than Sky TV, serve his purpose. We, who believe in what is for the best for this country, as opposed to what is best for Rupert, Gina, Clive, Twiggy, Lindsay Fox et al, need to be all hands to the pump. TOGETHER. A party divided can never win against the united forces of darkness.
by C@tmomma on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Doyley
I think you are basically right. However the campaign the Opposition is going to run with its media mates is the Constitution Crisis one. Remember facts do not count. This is why there will be a no confidence campaign waged to try and get Oakshott or Windsor to vote with the Opposition.
That way they can have lots of coverage on anything but what is happening with the budget.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:38 pm
If the #MSM & #TheirABC dont make this clear, then they are NOT telling the punters the real story:
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Rubbish
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:38 pm
So much for the non-event media beat up story….
moving too fast for me to keep up…
so what comes next?
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:39 pm
I do like this Tweet
Allan Moyes so pleased to hear from you on PB
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:39 pm
CTar1. I use this one occasionally “In vino veritas.” The English equivalent doesn’t have quite the same effect. That is the case with many Latin mots justes. And French too.
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:39 pm
(Anna Burke in the Chair, I don’t think.) Yes lbd she is very good
At one stage there last sitti g i thought she may ask abbott to leave
Gosh poor thing another lady in the gov, in a high position
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:39 pm
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/speaker-peter-slipper-flies-in-for-vote-on-his-future/story-e6freuy9-1226335205867
Note they deliberately confuse the issues.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:40 pm
They want Slipper out of parliament, not just standing aside while the allegations go through the court process. Abbott and his henchgoons have been blathering about it all day. They’ll keep on with the ‘Slipper has to go’ chant until our ears bleed. Should it all go pear-shaped, as these Coalition mud-slinging plots always seem to, and the court clears Slipper of all wrong-doing Abbott and Co will be left looking like the idiots they really are.
Meanwhile Anna Burke takes over as speaker, Bruce Scott will get a bit more time in the chair and all those MPs on the Speaker’s Panel will get to see a bit more action.
by leone on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:40 pm
lizzie
Indeed!
by MTBW on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:40 pm
lizzie
Oh gawd yes.Text book number one.But that lacked “amamus amatis amant”
by poroti on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:41 pm
my say
anna will take no prisoners.. she is one tough lady… this is the best possible outcome for the govt under the circumstances and i believe slipper will be exonerated and return to his position.
by Lyne Lady on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:42 pm
my say,
I have no idea re the dynamics of the speaker/ deputy speaker roles and who is who in the zoo.
Re other pollies, I think there would be quite a few having a look at relationships with staff members and others at this very moment.
The old can of worms may have opened up across a broad range of issues for a few members of Parliament, tories very much included.
cheers.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Well, there you go for the tories.
They howl, but at the end of the day, the target has moved off stage.
S drops out of the game for awhile. The Deputy Speaker – I guess, steps up – as this is only a “temporary” move, and all the plans about motions of no confidences are as dust on the floor.
Mind you, the Murdoch press will see this as some kind of “victory” and will continue their anti-Labor bash though apart from the “morally right thing to do” stuff, which was all they had as a point – where do they go from here?
All of Abbott’s huff and puff about “integrity = JG = lack thereof” has been pricked. As has that of Wilkie and the good professor from the Catholic university. As he called it, so it will be.
It is now, as Labor had said it should be, in the hands of the legal system. And, as I understand, it could be well into May before anything more happens – other than the conservative press going berko.
So, those journos who thought they might not be able to get to the Budget Lockdown due to the potential no confidence call, might not have to worry now.
by Tricot on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Yes but if mr slipper stsyed ir may be, very similar any way
Mod lib thought it was the same when mr thompsom thing was on
Oakshott and windsor now slipper, are not friends of the liberals
Rubbish is the only thing she can come up with
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Re Grattans tweet,
She fails to recognize that what Mr Jenkins gave as his reasons at the time may be correct.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:44 pm
c@tmomma
I appreciate your post – can you give me a source for this pls?
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:45 pm
and
Now the attack will be “Why doesn’t Thomson do the honourable thing and step aside as well?”
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Presumably those people who said there was no way Slipper would step down have re-evaluated their opinions.
by Diogenes on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Lady lynne i agree
But do they have to have a temporary, deputy
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Mod Lib/2368
Abbott cannot do that. He already said Thomson stepped aside from the economics committee.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Dio
I have been proved wrong. However at least I only said I do not think that.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Which is exactly the kind of inane stupidity that we expect from the Coalition so your probably right ML.
by imacca on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Moves for Slipper to stand aside until proven innocent are absurd.
Harry Jenkins, although a good bloke, was far too weak as Speaker and allowed the Coalition to run riot, hence their call (from old bag Grattan) for his reinstatement.
Slipper STAYS – GOT IT!
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Isn’t the only criminal allegation $140 of CabCharge misuse?
by Diogenes on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:50 pm
C@t momma hear hear!
by Gweneth on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Well I’m sitting here in Hospital at present banging away on The IPad.
The sojourn has given me something of an opportunity to speak to some fellow patients and I can tell my fellow Bludgers that apart from one Bogan blow-hard, every person I’ve spoken to, and I do mean every single one (patients and nurses included), has expressed admiration and support for Gillard and a loathing for Abbott.
Maybe the denizens of a cancer ward aren’t the real Australia that Mod Lib and his mates assure us have “turned-off” and are no longer listening.
I dunno.
All I can say is that round at RPAH, she’s got an audience.
by smithe on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Allan Moyes
That will be due to what seems to be the “compulsory” primer text book in the Brit empire being “Amo ,amas,amat”.I guess my teacher in sheepen shagger land was a rebel
That said we also used the same book.
by poroti on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Dio, yes, but he may wiser thoughts than ours
Ex, u decide u think u know about surgery needed you discuss it
You go to surgery open up the person
Do opposite, do you then go out and they say gee doc, we told u xyz, why did u change your
Mind
U say wiser heads prevailed
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Dio,
Debate for a Sunday afternoon. Has Slipper stepped down or has he stepped aside?
by Scarpat on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Centre
did she say that?? what a joke!
by Lyne Lady on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Generally i think in tbe broader sence pb just think he is a strong person.
I
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:52 pm
OK. Let’s explain what will happen – again.
Peter Slipper has decided to stand aside as Speaker.
He has already announced that Anna Burke – the Deputy Speaker – will take over during his absence. He intends to return to the job after the courts have finished with the case.
We have a Second Deputy Speaker – Nats Bruce Scott – who will continue to fill in when the deputy speaker isn’t there.
We also have a Speaker’s Panel made up of MPs from both sides and the cross benches. These MPs take turns to do some of the Speaker’s duties and will keep on doing that.
There is not need for anyone to be elected Speaker od Deputy Speaker etc just yet.
by leone on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:52 pm
tony crook , could be the speaker
dont take my word as gossopil on this, but dont be surprise if the governmennt gets him to accept
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Dio -yes – apparently.
by Gweneth on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:53 pm
I am not saying a no-confidence motion will win, just that to say:
…is clearly, absolute rubbish.
Its a vote here or a vote there, teetering on the brink at the moment. The ALP has only 75/150 votes on the floor of the house WITH Wilkie, Oaky, Windsor and Bandt (ALL of them).
If any single one of them leaves, you get 74/150. The only question is what happens with Slipper’s vote. If that goes with the government, they are safe (or at least can tolerate another indie jumping). If he votes with the LNP, they are in danger. If he doesn’t vote, the government is probably safe.
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Not really. Seems to me that he is standing aside until the allegations of Cab Charge fraud are dealt with. He is still Speaker.
by imacca on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Scarpat and Dio
The Statement says step aside. That is why we know the Deputy Speaker Anna Burke will be in the chair.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:53 pm
mod libe @ 2386
abbot will not get near the numbers
apart from crook, and possibly wilkie were are the other numbers coming from
Abbott lied to katter which katter will not forget about
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:55 pm
(e Posted Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 3:50 pm | Permalink
Well I’m sitting here in Hospital at present banging away on The IPad.)
Smithe your a gem keep strong. Hope your ok
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Apologies to Dio and DavidWH who had been focused on the “criminal” component of the allegations against Slipper ie, misuse of Cabcharge vouchers. My focus has been on the civil component of the complaint.
Slipper Seems pretty confident on his defence to the Cabcharge issue. It only ever seems to have been a minor part of Ashby’s complaint list.
Nice sidestep by Slipper.
And as for Abott’s political master play with Slipper? He’s still down a vote in a hung parliament, unless Wilkie has changed sides. At worst, status quo maintained (there’s that Latin again!)
by Outsider on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Mod Lib
can you seriously think slipper would ever vote with the opp?
by Lyne Lady on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Slipper
He might be disappointed. The current bench-mark is three years.
by Mick77 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:56 pm
the lib/nat best hope is 72 votes
government 76-77 , that if katter decides to vote, he promised to support Gillard agaisnt no confidence motions
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Abbott will not like this development.
Wilkie has become relevant again. A listening government may mean Wilkie not supporting Abbott no confidence motions.
What we do know is no early election.
No no confidence. No Constitutional Crisis. No avoiding economic scrutiny.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:57 pm
The barrier between discussion of possible or actual relationships between members and staffers has now been crashed through.
The connections between the press and staffers and politicians will fall quickly.
by CTar1 on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Lynchpin
I know. Villanova, an Augustinian College, (even though it was not a Greater Public School: GPS) was a cool school & the blokes a cut above those from the parish Marist & CB brothers’ schools.
In my era, Nudgee & Terrace (also CB, but GPS) otoh, were very cool. Not that, when I was in high school, there was much choice. There were 3 ‘cool’ other private schools – Grammar, “Churchie” and “BBC” (P & N, so not imo cool at all), a handful of SHSs (“State High” – BrisSHS – is officially a GPS school). About 2,800 QLD students did Senior in my year, so the total Briz Senior population was about the same size as the smallest of today’s local SHSs, so we all more or less knew one another.
But The QLD DLP Split – a true Civil (Cold) War, which literally split families, parishes, teaching nuns/ brothers in the same school, classmates in a most acrimonious manner for years – happened in my Junior Year, and it did terrible things to some RC schools. Antony Green notes:
Closely followed by The Split in RC schools were the introduction of lay teachers, and Vatican II reforms. The QLD Split altered the “tone”/ “culture” and cohesion of Catholic schools. Brandis, born 1957, the year of The Split, was probably caught up in its repercussions as RCs’ influence inc political influence, very significant when James Duhig was Archbishop of Brisbane, declined just as significantly under the Country Party-Liberal Coalition and the very rapid decline of the DLP.
BTW: Villanova Old Boys
In that company, no wonder Brandis uses his SC as often as possible.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Just what can Thomson step aside from? Being a backbencher?
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 3:59 pm
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:00 pm