Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Given that Slipper’s step aside doesn’t really change the equation, would it not be better for the investigation to drag out for 17 months? Wilkie won’t abandon ALP, particularly since Slipper has stepped aside. Wilkie seems to be an eccentric moralist so he should be satisfied as things stand.
by Mick77 on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Labor would have to appoint one of its own MPs to the Speaker’s chair causing the government’s numbers to fall from 75 votes to 74. The Coalition would remain on 73 votes.]
Can anyone explain this arithmetic? How do the coalition get to 73?
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:22 pm
2330
Probably one of the best ways to learn, Allan.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Finns
Do you think Slipper will have a “Now THIS is a knife!” moment in mind?
by BK on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:23 pm
I missed the presser by Slipper. Can anyone tell me what his demeanour was like? Thanks in advance
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:23 pm
BH
Jetta is fantastic.
I agree separating the issues was a very intelligent move. Gave a valid reason to step aside for a short time that the Opposition cannot object to.
If cleared and then returns a lot harder for Oppisition to again call for him to stand down as will not be a criminal matter.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:23 pm
od Lib
Posted Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 3:46 pm | Permalink
What line of attack can News and the tories have left on this ?
and
Tricot
Posted Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 3:43 pm | Permalink
Well, there you go for the tories.
They howl, but at the end of the day, the target has moved off stage.
Now the attack will be “Why doesn’t Thomson do the honourable thing and step aside as well?”
I would take more notice of this ModLib if the Coalition senator had stood aside when she was charged , do you agree?
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:25 pm
Sure. But just a forewarning, have to head off to dinner with friends in a moment (just had to come back after hearing the developments…..).
How can I help you?
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:25 pm
ru
without Slipper, Abbott has 71. Add Wilkie and Crook, takes it to 73. Add Katter 74. I would never rely on Katter for a vote, never.
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:27 pm
BK
Yes indeedy , Slipper will “You call that a dirt file ? THIS is a dirt file.” I look forward to it
by poroti on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:27 pm
BK, you dont survive in the LNP for almost 20 years being a pussy cat. Slipper will get his back on Abbott.
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:27 pm
http://www.aph.gov.au/~/media/05%20About%20Parliament/53%20HoR/532%20PPP/StandingOrders/chapter4.ashx
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:28 pm
When will the press realise that by standing aside, Slipper intends to do sfa, he will not attend Parliament or vote.
Surely they will have to press the getting paid for nothing button sooner or later.
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Sortius answered my question: no confidence motions just need a simple majority.
Also, there seems to be some question if Anna Bourke, as acting Speaker, has deciding vote.
by jenauthor on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Heard Tony W this morning on the car radio, I wouldn’t get too hopeful about him if I was Tony Abbott, haven’t heard from Oakey
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Poroti, since you are playing dirty.
Here is a dirt file with plenty of political touches by Abbott:
Abbott: I was charged with indecent assault, By Michelle Grattan
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/17/1089694611809.html
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:30 pm
jenauthor
Ae you sure it needs a simple majority. Some votes need 76, a no confidence may be in that category
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Mr Denmore
http://thefailedestate.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/sex-text-pest-bests-rest-test.html
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Slipper’s return as speaker with no resolution of the civil case will mean a permanent target for LNP spats. Just for interest, do any of the Gillard groupies on this site (and you know who you are) not find anything repulsive about the alleged complaint of Slipper’s aide? How often are women in this position with a lecherous, powerful boss. Personally the cabcharge seems trite although the law must be followed; the sexual harassment as alleged is just awful for a public figure if it’s true and until such time as it’s knocked over, Slipper should be stood aside from speakership if he wants to return.
by Mick77 on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Almost all my textbooks were UK, except Senior Calculus & “Pacific Picture” (Australia etc history).
The standard UK Latin textbooks (blue covers) were (slightly) modified versions of MBA (Montford’s-Bradley’s-Arnold – the Arnold’s being Dr Thomas (Tom) Arnold of Rugby, poet Matthew Arnold’s father).
Each chapter with grammar + a goodly slab of Livy’s History of Rome, its history chronological, its modification decreasing as we worked our way through. 1st year had eg the Kings, Foundation of the Republic, Coriolanus, the Struggle of the Orders (aka “Class Warfare”) – yes, it did start with 1st conjugation verb amo, amas, amat . 2nd Year was pretty solidly war, war, the Fabian Strategy (reprised in Sub-Senior) more war (which I enjoyed) with the Gracchi brothers & Republic’s breakdown (ditto).
I still treasure Tom Arnold for such exciting texts – and even Rugger Bug^ers, when they win the World Cup!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:31 pm
@ Runawake
The coalition libs/nat have 71 seats
Newsltd and pro coaltion supporters are taking for granted crook and katter
which is not the case katter says he will support Gillard in no confidence motions
Tony abbott lied to him and katter regrets giving the coalition support
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:31 pm
If the media decided for some reason that they needed to get rid of Abbott, how long do you think it could take them?
They certainly have enough material to hang him, from his chauvenist pig personality and swearing, support for a carbon tax in his book Battlelines, to his fudged costings and $11.5 billion black hole!
I could get him out of parliament in about 3 weeks tops!
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:31 pm
guytaur @ 2233
That assumes an electorate that is interested and engaged in politics. We don’t have that.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:31 pm
He’s as cunning as a rat, Finnigans. Steve Lewis should have known.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-nsw/rats-now-peter-slippers-serjeant-at-arms-is-trying-to-ban-the-tele/story-e6freuzi-1226208572849
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:31 pm
ruawake i should say sorry
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:32 pm
vic
Abbott only had 71 before Slipper if you wish to include Crook as an indie. He now has 70. He needs another 6. Tough going.
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Well I am surprised he has stepped aside but it seems to be to do with the “criminal” allegation relating to the Cabcharges rather than the civil claim by Ashby.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Mick77
Slipper is being accused of sexual harrassment. The case needs to be tested in the courts. If he is found to have sexually harrassed the accuser, of course, he should face the consequences. No one is saying otherwise.
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Finns
It’s a good thing you put the comma in!
by BK on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:33 pm
The Finnigans
Ooh http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckl0mIcYrPA
by poroti on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Who would have thought the Speaker would have actually Slipped aside over this innocent until proven guilty situation.
by Dr Phibes on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Ru
Coalition has 71 without Crook.
150
72 Labor
71 Coalition
oakie
windsor
Bandt
wilkie
crook
katter
Slipper
slipper
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Mea Culpa from #TheirABC and fuck them:
My response:
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
@ABCNews24 That is not strictly true. My reading is that Peter Slipper stood aside for the alleged “Fraud” not the alleged “Harassment”
In reply to ABC News 24
The original tweet from #TheirABC
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Michelle charged Tone?!
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:35 pm
opps cross that extra slipper!
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:35 pm
From the APH website:
So Anna Burke definitely will be able to cast the deciding vote in a tie.
by Von Kirsdarke on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:35 pm
;The Finnigans
Posted Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 4:30 pm | Permalink
Poroti, since you are playing dirty.
Here is a dirt file with plenty of political touches by Abbott:
Abbott: I was charged with indecent assault, By Michelle Grattan
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/17/1089694611809.html
Did you see my tweet to her showing this link to refresh her memory
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Abbott still needs Wilkie’s vote for a no confidence motion, is that right?
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Sortius says simple majority — not sure what his expertise is, but he sounded firm in knowledge
by jenauthor on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:36 pm
geoffrey @ 2238
Much as I think Rudd was a better leader, I am not interested in having him back for reasons of payback or softening policies.
I would like him back because I think he would do a better job of articulating and advocating present Labor policy.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:37 pm
VK
Thanks for that
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:38 pm
But what grounds has abott got any way for no confidence, mr slipper stood aside
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:38 pm
my say
He has none. However, when has that ever stopped him saying things he knows will not happen?
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:39 pm
As for a no confidence motion, it all depends on if it is put on the notice paper.
If Abbott is certain to win such a motion, he would put it on notice, and then there would only need to be a simple majority.
If he was just grandstanding as usual, instead voting to suspend standing and sessional orders so that they can then have a confidence vote, then there would need to be an absolute majority of 76 votes.
by Von Kirsdarke on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Oh no, some of you are still talking about A possible return to Rudd?
I’m no quack, but that is not healthy. You could be looking at medication or hypnosis!
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:40 pm
VK
Thanks again.
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Sounds like harassment to me.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:41 pm
(Posted Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 4:35 pm | Permalink
From the APH website:
Exercise of the casting vote
The Speaker cannot vote in a division in the House unless the numbers are equal, and then h)
Thank you, for tat good piece of i formation,
I think may be on a plane now one can discuss matters by phone , i am sure they who ever they are
Would of worked through all scenarios,
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:42 pm
my say
I should make clear that I mean Abbott knows he cannot get the votes.
A no confidence motion needs no cause. Just a statement the house has lost confidence.
That is the government does not have the numbers to control the house.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Whoever is (legitimately) in the Chair, acting as speaker – in fact, acting in any position – has a Speaker’s (that position’s) rights; ie, she does have the deciding vote.
If the speaker has stepped aside, whoever replaces Burke (it’s an LNP member) has an Acting Speaker’s rights, inc the right to occupy the Chair when AB is absent. If, eg, that person is legitimately in the Chair because AB is absent, that person also has full speaker’s rights.
It’s a standard succession (as it was in the PS when I was in it; as it is in most organisations).
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:43 pm