Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Oh, that question. Yes, I remember it and thought it was so childish it must have been rhetorical!
I have no idea how long it would take “the media….to get rid of Abbott”.
I am certainly happy for any media with any story about Abbott that reflects on his ability to be PM to bring it out into the open.
Go for it I say.
How is that? Happy now? Have to zip (hehe
) so we can continue with Essential results Monday night if you find this line of discussion interesting…
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:45 pm
I try to put myself in the shoes of Joe Voting Public from time to time. Hard to do, but in relation to the Slipper business, I wonder what JVP would make of it?
I reckon a thunderstorm comes close to the mark.
On Friday, a thunderstorm came out of nowhere. Admittedly, the storm clouds had been seeded by the all out efforts of the Murdoch media, abetted by the ABC, but most people just went on with their normal business come rain, hail or shine.
By the end of the weekend, the storm has passed and though there were some puddles on the ground, and some damp areas which needed mopping up, nothing had changed.
Some news outlets had warned that the world would come to an end with this “explosive crisis” of a thunderstorm, but when the sun came out on Monday, hardly anyone could find any damage caused to them.
By the time of the Anzac Day holiday, most had forgotten about the thunderstorm, but the certain news outlets where warning that there was more to come ………as they were going to continue to seed the clouds.
Most shrugged in bemusement to all of this.
by Tricot on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:45 pm
MNC Bludgers – have you realised that we will have our get together the day after the Budget session of Parliament. Some interesting chatter coming up, methinks.
by BH on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:46 pm
When Tone did Latin his first conjugation was odi, odisti, odit, odimus, odistis, oderunt.
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:47 pm
bemused
true true but if carbon remains the albatross i suspect it will be.
FFS who called it a tax? who got all that discourse screwed up.
poitically it should be rebranded … if legislatively possible (might not be poss)
by geoffrey on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:48 pm
VanOnselen is a bit of twit on twitter. Perhaps I should report SkyNews to Fair Trading for false advertising when he says he’s a political scientist. He takes the gloss off that profession.
by BH on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:48 pm
bemused
If you think that the issue is about selling the ALP why don’t YOU start selling the policies? Show us how it is done.
by Gweneth on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Tricot
the GVP (or GAP) gave up thinking rationally in june 2010. as acute as political insiders might be, the public is at mercy of irrational currents and tides – they dont know what to think. everything is larger than life – who is slipper and what has happened now becomes the latest chapter in the daily soapie of fiction (as seen by GVP) dished out from canberra by both side. there is still only one thread of coherence and meaning
by geoffrey on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Basically, we’re back to the way things were when Harry Jenkins. His vote gone means Wilkie voting with the Coalition can get a tied vote but Burke gets the deciding vote until Slipper returns.
The Coalition still can’t get 76 votes on the floor.
Only issue now is Thomson.
Big deal, move along
by spur212 on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Afternoon All
Who said it’s boring when parliament isn’t sitting – wow – a big news weekend
Well done to Slipper for standing down,he really does respect the position of Speaker – wonder how long it will be before the AFP clears him on the cab charge allegations???
As to the civil claim – I feel sorry for all concerned but surely questions need to be asked around if the Liberals observed their duty of care back in 2003 – you can’t, well shouldn’t, just ignore these kind of things
by womble on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:53 pm
spur 212
we’re not back to jenkins days? slipper does not vote when stood down. -1 to coalition?
by geoffrey on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Julia should follow Slipper’s lead and ask Thomson to stand down from the party as well – set the standards
by womble on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Por Bananaby, he still hasn’t worked out that Slipper is an independent who used to belong to the LNP -
Maybe someone should tell him.
by leone on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Tricot, every time we have a storm i will think of you:-)
So was this storm in a tea cup:-)
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:56 pm
lizzie@2367,
The source for the claim of ABC>Sky RW bias came from Twitter. From memory it was a study by a couple of academics. I read it this morning. That’s the best I can do I’m afraid. :$
by C@tmomma on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:56 pm
geoffrey
Did you miss c@tmomma’s contribution?
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:56 pm
This from Abetz:
“I understand there are now investigations in relation to criminal activity both of which occurred whilst he was Julia Gillard’s Speaker in the house.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/slipper-stands-aside-as-speaker-20120422-1xeme.html#ixzz1skYh56z7
The man is a knob.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Not unless Slipper has stood aside from taking his seat (& he hasn’t). If it’s only from Slipper’s Speakership position (it seems to be) he still has his rights as an MP. So, no, the gov doesn’t need Wilkie.
I think the correct term for Slipper’s move would be finesse since it cuts ground from under Abbott’s plans for SSSOs/ No confidence motions aimed at forcing the PM to stand Slipper down. Nor are there grounds for censuring the PM.
I didn’t expect Slipper to stand aside; nor, I’d guess, did Abbott or NewsLtd, whose whole strategy is to have Abbott as PM before the CP, Media regulation, MRRT & other legislation is enacted.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:58 pm
C@tmomma
Thanks for trying.
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Hey Tone, you’d better get your thinking hat on for the address in reply to the budget. Not many days to go.
You can always get Joe and Andrew to work on it for you. Mesma might even Google one for you.
by BK on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Gweneth,
Thank you. I call’s them how I sees them. Anyway, the doe-eyed tosh from geoffrey needed a reality check.
by C@tmomma on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:02 pm
I see the Liberal posters have disappeared. They must have gone back to Menzies House bunker to work out next strategy.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:02 pm
geoffrey
Slipper doesn’t vote, but Wilkie can make it 74-74 giving Burke the deciding vote
by spur212 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Come on mate, morning walk across the lake, water into wine, it’s nothin.
by fredn on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Toilet break. They’re permitted one toilet break per shift on their SerfChoices ‘agreement’, whether they need it or not.
by Cuppa on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:05 pm
C@tmomma – are you on twitter?
On another matter, see last paragraphs of this. Does the LOTO now (which he didn’t then) support Smith on Defence Academy stand down?
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/slipper-stands-aside-as-speaker-20120422-1xeme.html
by Leroy on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:06 pm
@ guytaur; One of those pesky Menzies House people probably read about the consequences and they are now all huddled back there trying to work out how to deny everything! The main question being asked is, “Whose stupid idea was this? It is exactly the same as that Ute thing we set up a couple of years ago!”
http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2012/04/22/james-ashby-sues-the-implications/
by archie on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:08 pm
womble @2511,
I think Mr Slipper has been very smart by making the distinction between civil and criminal matters.
Mr Slipper has specific charges against him, both civil and criminal. He is standing aside only in response to the criminal charges.
Mr Thomson has no specific charges against him and if FWA takes any action against him it will be for civil matters only.
Mr Slipper has not stood aside because of civil matters why should Mr THomson ?
Besides what can Mr THomson stand aside from ?
Well played Mr Slipper. Criminal charges, stand aside. Civil matters do not stand aside.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:09 pm
leone @ 2266
Brilliant thought!
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Agree
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:10 pm
archie
I actually saw your post linked on twitter earlier today. Great piece
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:11 pm
As slipper will no doubt vote with labor, nothing changes.
by fredn on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:12 pm
(is to have Abbott as PM before the CP, Media regulation, MRRT & other legislation is enacted.
Pages: « 1)
When will tbese bill all be through the senate please
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Re my post at @2527,
I should have stated specific accusations, both civil and criminal, not charges against Mr Slipper.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Curious. If the government changed in the budget session would the legislation in the Senate still go through, or does it require an election to change the programme in the Senate as Labor and the Greens would still control the Senate?
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:15 pm
mysay,
Carbon pricing and MRRT are both through the Senate.
I think the poster was talking about getting them actually up and running as from 1 July.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:16 pm
I hope they hound slipper to his grave.
Sounds familiar?.
by rummel on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Wasn’t Abbott supposed to be making a statement? Did anyone see it?
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:16 pm
fredn
Slipper can’t vote while he’s standing aside.
Back to normal. Only issue is Thomson
by spur212 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Leroy
Doesn’t commit, just alluding to inconsistency.
by Dee on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:18 pm
lizzie
Not me. Am watching Swans beat North Melbourne.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Thanks doyley, i thought so but then its best to check
People i know are already factoring in their extra pension
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:19 pm
guytaur
My OH barracks for North. Sob.
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:20 pm
I bet by may the cab charge thing is resolved.
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:21 pm
He is standing aside as Speaker, not a Member is he not?
by BK on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Doyley – you mat not have noticed, Thomson is facing allegations of criminal activity, i.e. the same reason Slipper stood down today. Thomson should go to the cross bench until he is cleared or convicted.
by womble on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Thats 2 weeks, away
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:22 pm
did anyone see this?
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:23 pm
72 seconds of head-nodding muteness, mouth opening and closing, tongue lolling in and out.
by Cuppa on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:23 pm
True, Doyley, it will force the media, even the morons who write the weekend ABC script, to explain it and understand it.
Slipper might wish to make a small educational video, as he has been known to do, for the public and opposition leader who, despite being a trained lawyer, is totally clueless on the issue. I wonder, sometimes, if someone else sat his exams.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:23 pm