Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BK
He’s standing aside as Speaker. He’ll return to the speakership when the criminal matter is dealt with
by spur212 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:23 pm
lizzie
we all have these crosses to bear
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Question for those who know: Which are the votes where you need a majority of the house rather than a majority on the floor to be successful?
by Aguirre on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:24 pm
ozpol tragic @ 2469
(also poroti, lizzie and mari – thanks for your posts)
Sorry to take so long to catch up, but I’ve been out walking the dog.
ozpol, I remember that series of text books and the chronology you cite very well. It helped instil in me a lifelong love of Roman history, although sadly, I’ve yet to visit Rome. Did walk part of Hadrian’s Wall during my last visit to the UK, saw the little remaining of the Antonine Wall in Scotland and the ruins of a Roman villa near Colchester in England. Also, many years ago, some ruins in France and Israel.
As a young teenager I found Caesar’s Gallic Wars great fun, although he did seem to spend a lot of time throwing bridges over rivers and dividing Gaul into three parts. Could never find a reference to Asterix in it though!
by Allan Moyes on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Daily Mail, most powerful paper in England, backs France’s National Front in Presidential election. Not that they’ll influence it, but it’s worth knowing they’re willing to do so.
http://zelo-street.blogspot.fr/2012/04/daily-mail-back-to-30s.html
For “most powerful” argument, see this article…
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/04/02/120402fa_fact_collins
by Leroy on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:26 pm
I thought Easter was over. But if anyone deserves to be strung up with a few nails, he does. And Rupert.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:27 pm
joe2
Good one!
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Spur, imo the Slipper fracas is an indication that Abbott’s Mob knows the Thompson affair – one of the longest & most investigated with nary a charge laid – hasn’t a feather to fly with.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Hi Allan
Good to hear from you
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:28 pm
leone @ 2359
Now that’s a nice turn of phrase. I hope it goes viral.
You do have a way with words leone.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Looking forward to Swan’s Budget being swamped by SlipperGate. I almost feel sorry for Labor backbenchers at the moment.
by rummel on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:30 pm
What court proceedings are taking place against Thomson?
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:30 pm
victoria
thanks. yes must have missed mommas statement. i am humbled to have been its recipient. it is certainly one of the longer, passionate and persuasive PB entries recently. and all fine sentiments of which we cannot on principle argue. we all want to be progressive egalitarians and we all want to win
HOWEVER it has been said before by anti Rudd side, and the fact is that 30+ (more like 30++) members recently disagreed with all of this. the generalisations about “federal parlientary members” are simply not true. and if the government are not concerned about newspolls by now or for rest of year, and would prefer loss than consider a leadership change, then they dont deserve to be there at all. i am not easily persuaded – by 2010, by last year or the leadership spill. you-do-not-remove-first-term-leader – what word in the previous sentence can’t be undersood?
actually I disagree completely with some statements, that Keven screwed up (he was as much screwed) and the messiah comment is plain stupid and not persuasive. 2010 was a mistake, and we still pay the price
by geoffrey on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:30 pm
In two weeks time? There will be nothing to talk about re Slipper.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:31 pm
The only way Slipper can stand aside as Speaker is not to enter the House. If he is in the House he is Speaker.
I reckon the House should dump him and give the job to Anna.
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Aguirre
There were some posts by VK that dealt with simple majority votes a few pages back
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:31 pm
geoffrey
Catmomma was giving you a view from the inside. Didn’t you get that? She wasn’t making up stuff, the way we hangers-on might do.
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:33 pm
womble,
What specific criminal accusations have been lodged before any court re Mr Thomson ?
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:33 pm
geoffrey
As pointed out by lizzie. C@tmomma is speaking as an Insider. Do you get it now?!
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:34 pm
I’d love to be a fly on the wall at Abbott’s office right now. I hope Peta has earplugs and decent armour. It’s all gone wrong – again. Slipper says he’s innocent of all allegations and has done the decent thing and stood aside. There’s nothing to talk about now unless Abbott wants to keep on with his cracked-record ranting. Then there’s all the fall-out from Ashby’s allegations. He’s after the Commonwealth government for not dealing with Slipper’s alleged sexual proclivities. If the court finds there was a problem then it all goes back to the Howard years. Just another little mess Johnny left behind. If it works out as it should then a fair few Coalition MPs are going to have to stand aside pending legal proceedings too. The front bench will be a bit empty without Abbott, Hockey, Truss, B Bishop and others. The back bench won’t be looking too good either.
Poor Tony, he won’t know what to pray for. If Slipper is found guilty of sexual harassment Abbott can move to have him ousted as speaker but it will open a huge can of Coalition worms and that won’t be pretty. If Slipper is found to be innocent of all accusations Abbott and his sleazy buddies won’t have to deal with the aftermath but they’ll look like a bunch of loonies for going in so hard with the ‘He has to go’ line and Slipper will have a triumphant return to his chair. Either way it’s not going to be much fun for the LOTO. I bet he wishes he hadn’t had that dinner with Sheridan now.
by leone on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:34 pm
ru
It appears that is what Slipper will be doing
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:35 pm
geoffrey
Rudd is history. His legacy will be the Sorry Day. A fantastic legacy iMHO.
Difficult as it is for you to cope with the fact is the ALP is not going back.
A united Labor party and supporters can win. They can sell their policies. Good policies.
Doing public post mortems and what if fantasies only help the Liberals and Nationals.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Gary
I thought SlipperGate was a media conspiracy to take the focus of the age care policy?. Just think, if this is true, the night before budget day is going to be a ripper to slap labor even further down.
by rummel on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:36 pm
sorry lizzie but Guytaur and I are quietly confident.
by BH on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:36 pm
bemused
I can’t claim the credit for ‘henchgoons’ I stole it from First Dog on the Moon.
by leone on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Doyley and Gary
I could just as easily ask
What specific criminal accusations have been lodged before any court re Mr Slipper
The answer would be the same – i.e. none – Slipper has done the right thing in standing down while the investigation occurs, Thomson should do the same – he is hurting Labor terribly by not doing so
by womble on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Thanks Vic. I do think it is time for Rupert to step down, with all these allegations flying around, about him, gathering information on politicians to use as a wedge and pervert the democratic will.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Slipper has stepped down. The only thing that can happen is the criminal case to be resolved. There is nothing to talk about while that happens. Justice needs to take its course. I’m not sure what you are so excited about.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:39 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/slipper-stands-aside-as-speaker-20120422-1xeme.html
This gives a clue may be to mr slippers advice, this what this msm thought before his decision
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:39 pm
*sigh*
Geoffrey even if you are right what you are currently doing is undermining the strength of the progressive forces by your useless (in that they cannot change the past) posts. So why do you do it? What do you hope to achieve?
C@t momma speaks of the reality of now.
Let us focus on what we do agree on and unite to fight against the forces of darkness.
Can we do that?
by Gweneth on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:39 pm
womble
Thomson has stood down. Abbott said so this very morning.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:39 pm
BH
A comforting dish of shellfish is required, I think. It’s a tough life for North supporters. Must be two centuries since they won the GF.
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Those fairfax video things that cannot be turned off are a bloody disgrace. Just saying.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:41 pm
lizzie
Careful with the shellfish. Leviticus specifically warns of the sin of eating that.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:41 pm
Of course, Slipper might be cleared by the time the parliament resumes which would be hilarious
by spur212 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:42 pm
joe2
+1
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Thomson hasn’t got a job to step down from. The only reason Slipper won’t be in parliament as an independent is because he is still speaker and can’t be in there. Thomson can be.
So if you are comparing apples with apples Thomson is at the same stage as Slipper. Slipper hasn’t resigned as an independent.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Is it a news poll night?.
by rummel on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Hi allan how is your sister doing’, are u feeling better yourself now
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:43 pm
No.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Maybe?
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Lets assume…
_______
Let’s assume a “Boss” asked a female employee to shower with the door open and accused her of being a prude when she demurred
Let’s assume that the same Boss asked intimate question of her and of
her sexual feelings
Would anyone doubt that would be seen as sexual harrasment and dealt with accordingly
In the David Jones case some years ago in Melb. …”The Boss”eventually was forced to resign after endless media interests and court actions?
Interesting example
Those optimists here on this Blog who think it will all blow over are deluding themselves
It will keep the media fully occupied for weeks or longer…and the young man involved
will have more than his 15 minutes of fame …though he will find Canberra jobs hard to find henceforth !!
by deblonay on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:45 pm
The media should be getting abbot to stand down
he had made several statements that slipper was a problem
what did abbott know, he should stand down as leader while being investigated of what he knew about slipper dealing in the liberal party
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:45 pm
I thnk we need to run a ‘Thomson 101′ course because some people still don’t understand. So here goes -
Thomson has broken no laws, so he’s not guilty of any criminal offence. Using a credit card or visiting prositutes are not criminal actions.
The time taken for the investigation shows us that someone, somewhere has been looking very hard for some sort of offence by Thomson and has been unable to find one.
According to the rules of his former employer he hasn’t done anything wrong because there were no rules or regulations to say how he could or could not use his credit card.
The whole debacle was instigated by a lunatic female who had her knickers in a twist about something her ex – or one of her exes – or lots of her exes – had done or had failed to do. Whatever it was and whoever did or did not do it, it made her very angry. Thomson was somehow caught up in this vendetta.
The Prime Minister is a very competent lawyer, if she thinks Thomson is OK then he is.
There, study carefully. There may be an exam soon.
by leone on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Rome is fun. If poss, go in mid-late autumn when the tourist season’s over; though it’s more crowded than it was in the 70-80s. – there were 14 people in the Forum on a sunny late Nov day last I visited, and no one else when I stood on the spot where Hasdrubal Barca’s head was hurled over the ramparts (I’ve a teeny bit of marble from there)
But there’s now probably more of Rome in Britain, inc the camp under York cathedral where Constantine the Great was proclaimed Princips et Imperator. Vindolander, always fascinating, is now very much better.
But military history was only part of what I learnt. Though I love rewriting battles for other conditions – esp deep-vacuum-space ones & its multiple dimensions – what I really cherish is my grounding in the origins of English democracy & law. Karl Marx’s “Class Warfare” was only “Struggle of the Orders” updated to the IR.
BTW, have you ever compared the Gracchi Brothers’ “reign”, esp Gaius, to Whitlam’s last year – funny money MidEast foreginers, stabbed in the back by the senate & all? 11 Yrs between G& his bro’s triumps; 11 yrs between Gough & Bob H? Bingo!
Off to dinner. Have fun!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Tories will never change.
by adam abdool on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:46 pm
barnbay joyce should be standing downj too
if he knows anything about slippers dealing
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Don’t you love it that rummel can smell Liberal government but it’s still out of reach? So frustrating.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:47 pm
by Dee on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:48 pm
You hope. We’ll see.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:48 pm