Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Lewsi must be disappointed. Slipper standing aside takes this off the front pages as a story.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:49 pm
guytaur
Really? Is there no end to the sins I commit without knowing
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Steve seems to be being fed by the LNP.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Lewis and News Ltd – a match made in heaven!
by BK on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:50 pm
I wondered what the awful stench was, I thought something had died under the house.
by leone on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Lewis. Sorry.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Keep it going Steve we want it all out well before the budget. Mind you if it’s a tough budget … hmm.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Catmomma – a confessed ‘insider’ says “Rudd will NEVER return to leadership”
I believe her/him
by jenauthor on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:52 pm
lizzie
there is no end of sins you learn when debating same sex marriage equality.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:52 pm
While persistently ignoring serious allegations of misconduct by their own company that are coming to light on a daily basis from the U.K. and elsewhere.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Mr Slipper has stood aside.
Let them bring out what they want.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Steve seems to want to conduct a trial by media.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Joe2
The Front pages of Fairfax and Lead Story on the Electronic News services will be the Murdoch testimony at the Leveson inquiry.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:54 pm
New ones or old ones?
The ALP must agree to sacking Slipper. He is about to explode in the L-NP’s face and will bring other members of parliaments down with him.
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Gary
Dont worry, Im very happy having Gillard as the PM for the next 17 months as she is the best person to ensure an massive Abbott Victory. We libs are very happy to wait, its not long till the next election and with a lot of Labor laughs to come.
by rummel on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:55 pm
Are we talking LNP members?
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:55 pm
It would be interesting to know who is actually feeding Steve.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Leone – I do agree it looks likely that Thomson hasn’t broken any laws but I’d still argue he should step down as a government MP until he is cleared – not doing so hurts Labor.
He should sit on the cross bench though so his electorate is represented in the house – for that reason I think it’s a bit unfair that Slipper can’t vote while being investigated
by womble on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Of course you are. This shit that’s going on now isn’t designed to get into government early at all.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:57 pm
You mean you’re happy for your neighbours and loved ones to suffer the degradation and erosion of living standards of SerfChoices.
by Cuppa on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Sydney win. 4/4
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:58 pm
guytaur, that does not make up for it being off limits for all Newslimited reporting.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 5:59 pm
I don’t see how it makes any difference. Are you really suggesting that Labor’s poll figures would improve if Thomson became an independent?
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Yes in local, state and federal parliaments.
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Slipper stepped aside from Speaker position. Thomson stepped down as economics chair. Therefore Thomson has done more than Slipper.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:00 pm
womble
I agree, Thomson should have either resigned from Labor or stood aside from his membership while the FWA investigation went on. He could have moved to the cross benches and still represented his elctorate, it would have saved the government a whole lot of trouble and, as Slipper has shown us, it’s not an admission of guilt.
by leone on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:00 pm
victoria, catsmomma, guystar, lizzie, gweneth
i am proudly not an insider but a “hanger on” like 99.9 of public. announcements of the death of anyone in the alp are a bit premature when the party itself is in a terminal. there has yet to be an adequate debrief of queensland or much else. but one can see the pressure that is one to keep unity against the forces of darkness. yes i had faith that JG might do the trick – until the leadership spil and queensland. i will certainly not be gagged by some delusion that all things are possible and loyalty will win the day – especially if that opinion is coming from within the party. by year’s end apologies will be due on PB – i will first to offer mine if there is a light in the tunnel that cannot be seen at present
by geoffrey on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:01 pm
I hope you are right.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:01 pm
lizzie – I’m still getting over Norths beating us in 1996
I see that news.com.au is writing that ‘Labor sources’ are questionning whether the Govt. will survive.
by BH on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:01 pm
Joe2
Television radio and fairfax news overcomes NewsLimited paper monopoly.
Even News Limited will have to report something that is the lead story everywhere else.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:02 pm
womble
1. Thomson has not had any charges laid against him. Therefore there is no way he can be ‘cleared’. Unless you’re suggesting he should leave Parliament until such time as someone gets around to charging him for something, which would be quite a remarkable thing to do.
2. The only people Thomson is really responsible to are the people who elected him. If they’re not happy with his performance, then it’s up to them to toss him out next election.
by zoomster on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:04 pm
my abbott hypocrisy at its finest
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3375770.htm
He claims he would asked an speaker to resign
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Rua
Slipper & Rabbott were close mates.
I can just hear that slimeball Rabbott ringing Slipper trying to use his ordination to placate what must be a growing thirst for revenge.
by Dee on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:04 pm
I was better off under surf choices, though I voted for kev 07 and handed out how to votes to get rid of it.
by rummel on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:04 pm
mr abbott hypocrisy at its finest
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3375770.htm
He claims he would not asked the speaker to resign
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Stevie, m’boy,
Godwin Grant asks to be remembered to you.
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:04 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3375770.htm
Abbott claims he would not asked the speaker to resign
by Meguire Bob on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Zoomster – why did Slipper step down???
by womble on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:06 pm
SNIP: Ill-advised speculation removed – The Management.
by billie on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:06 pm
I think it was engineered by Mal Brough, who may soon have a starring role in the soap opera.
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:07 pm
I try not to listen to Mr Abbott, but I thought he wanted Slipper’s head. . . . probably on a platter a la John the Baptist
by billie on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Socialist candidate ahead in polls of Sarkozy in French Presidential race by 5%
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:08 pm
OMG! OH screaming at Rabbott on the tv.
Rabbott claims the Coalition warned the government not to install Slipper as speaker.
Once again a stuff up by the ALP.
If Slipper was so damn bad why didn’t the Coalition disendorse him?
by Dee on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Agree with announcer with the voice of doom hoping for gravitas??.
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Brisbane win A-League final after a last second penalty which replays show to be a shocker!
by BK on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:09 pm
leone – I think the only thing about Thomson going to the cross benches is that the Chief Govt. Whip wouldn’t be able to round him up for the votes and if he missed a crucial one then the Govt. would be in trouble.
Meanwhile I’m not sure that any pollie has actually stood down until charges were laid against them. Thomson has no charges as yet.
MJFisher stayed in the Senate, even on Committee, during the whole episode. She only took time off initially due to depression I think it was but came back hale and hearty to scream and yell at the Govt. in the Senate before the Court proceedings were finalised.
She guilty of assault – nothing much said anywhere in the media over here.
Remember that no Howard pollie was stood down while charges were pending. It’s bare faced hypocrisy by Abbott
by BH on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:09 pm
womble
because there was a criminal charge proferred to the court.
by zoomster on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:09 pm
The worst thing for Labor is even if Abbott stuffs up they have better options with perceived credability and public acceptance in reserve that will also sink gillard.
Gillard is Labor’s worst option. It has come to the stage where anybody else would do better. Rudd would have a the best chance of wining going by public acceptance (you know, voters. Not hate filled labor hacks in factions and on PB).
She is performing no better than any other seat warmer would do, given the control of HOR and Senate Labor has with independents vested interests. Though here if Gillard drinks a glass of water it is a wonderful and praise worthy thing that nobody else in Lab or could have done.
Really must hurt the imaculate-Gillard worshippers here that Rudd had far and away the better credibility and acceptance by the voters.
Labor has nobody else to blame for its current situation than Gillard, Swan and the factional morons interested only in preserving their own power, for whose purpose Gillard was installed.
As bad as it is for Gillard now, I couldn’t imagine what the polls would be with a Turnbull/Sidonis ticket.
So the funniest thing really is, at the end of the day, when all those marginal seaters are panicing all over the place, and Rudd is the only option likely to save some of them…the focus turning on those factional heavies and some here, highlighting how stupid their cultism was.
So keep on squirming. Gillard is an expert at making wrong decisions and making major negative issues out of nothing.
by Thomas. Paine on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Why does anyone take Steve Lewis seriously? He’s the bloke who gave us Utegate, which was a disaster for the Coalition and Talcum.
Here’s a reminder of his work
http://inside.org.au/the-rise-and-fall-of-a-canberra-souffle/
He also thought that allowing batty Lord Monkton to entertain the National Press Club was providing ‘a civilised forum for an important debate”.’
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2011/business/media-2/christopher-monckton-turn-national-press-club-into-circus/
Lewis just keeps on accepting Fiberal ‘scoops’, and judging by the latest – the Slipper allegations – he keeps on being the dummy who releases a story that has no facts behind it. Either he’s very, very stupid or someone is paying him a lot of money to keep at it.
by leone on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Lucky to study Pliny’s letters at school which gave me my favourite Latin expression:
Pliny attributed the phrase to his old man who directed the uncertain boat captain to head into Herculaneum as Mt Vesuvius threatened whereupon everyone (well certainly Pliny’s father) perished.
Begs the question – what is the translation for “Fortune favours the brave but not all the time”.
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:11 pm