Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Me.
Plus blaspheming will see you incinerated in that nasty place.
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:50 pm
The libs were always going to go for Mr Slipper.
To even assume this has caught labor by surprise is a bit much I would think.
I think News Ltd were anticipating Mr Slipper would not stand aside. Hence further allegations ready to go.
Let them publish them. Add them to the list. Mr Slipper is still standing despite numerous allegations.
The PM has issued a statement saying it is appropriate for Mr Slipper to have stood aside with the criminal accusations on the table.
Both Senator Milne and Mr Bandt have issued statements. Appropriate for him to stand aside but Parliament should not be a court.
News was hoping for Mr Slipper to stand his ground. He has pulled the rug out from under them.
Plan B ?
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Thanks Fil R
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Scrap Cat,
The AFP may not hold Treasury in the same regard as the Opposition.
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Doyley
I watched the part of Insiders today. The meme. Constitutional crisis!!!!
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:53 pm
I think Middleton has been much more factual of late and presents policy pretty well or as well as she can in the time allotted. She’s much better than Simpkin and the other bloke on the ABC who like to put their own interpretation on everything instead of giving us the actual information.
by BH on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Having to moderate PB is already enough punishment.
by Scarpat on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:53 pm
rua,
Mal brough?
Do you have any inside info on the debacle?
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:53 pm
The North Koreans
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Hi Geoffrey re 2687
I’m certainly not telling anyone what they should or should not say.
What I am saying as a Labor Party member is that I believe the best way for members and supporters to work together, is that they should stop inflaming each other over personalities, and concentrate on the situation we are in now.
I would have no problem about a rational discussion about tactical/strategic weaknesses and how to improve on them, but I know of no organisation or group where unity was promoted by continual sniping and denigration, whether people here on PB or of the current or past leader.
However obviously there are some who do believe you can engender unity by slagging off – I can’t stop them, but I can point out my disagreement.
F
by Fil R on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:54 pm
That fool Abbott has just said the Govt needs ‘to make the case why it’s necessary to contribute to the European bailout’.
That’s how easy it is for him to be heard and to fool the public. No mention of it being a loan available if it is necessary and nothing more than that.
We’re part of the OECD trading nations. Does Abbott want the EU countries to say ‘b..ger Australia – they don’t want to help us so we’ll buy from elsewhere”. This bloke is far worse than Howard ever was. At least Howard understood trading.
by BH on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Fil R
The PM to address the Nation on commencement of the carbon scheme
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Well, well!!
by BH on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Lee Lin Chin has a flak jacket on.
Guess you would need it when you cover the international news that aunty had been required, by Fib Board operatives, to abandon.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:58 pm
victoria @2704,
I watched the show today.
My take on it all was that everything they were saying ( especially the two News faces ) was based on the premise that Mr Slipper would not stand aside.
The crisis was all around a vote of no confidence in Mr Slipper. This will now not be a option. Therefore I think they have been outdone by Mr Slipper and perhaps the PM.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Wikipedia is quick:
Jarred “Fuckhead” Gillett
Personal information
Nickname(s) Fuckhead
Born November 1, 1986 (age 25)
Died 22/04/12 Suncorp Stadium
Country Australia
Sport [[Football referee [allegedly]]
Event(s) A-League
Retired 24/04/12
Not to be confused with A Good Ref.
Jarred “Fuckhead” Gillett (born 1 November 1986) is a football referee from Australia who currently referees in the Australian A-League competition.[1] Jarred Gillett is currently the youngest referee in the A-League and officiated 15 matches in the November 2010 A-League season, including the elimination semi final between Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix.
Gillett refereed the October 2009 National Youth League Grand Final. He has been part of the Asian Football Confederation Project Future referees program and visited the Premier League in England in 2010 with the AFC.[2] Gillett currently holds an Australian Sports Commission National Officiating Scholarship.[3]
Gillett was awarded the 2011-12 A-League Referee of the Year and has been appointed to referee the 2012 A-League Grand Final alongside Assistant Referees Matthew Cream & Mathew Cheeseman and Fourth Official Ben Williams.[4]
Gillett cost the Perth Glory the 2012 A-League Grand Final, by awarding a dubious penalty to Besart Berisha after he dived in the penalty box. Scientists later discovered that he is in fact, a dickhead.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jarred_Gillett
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Karen Middleton is having a reasonable and fair discussion with some on twitter.
Not defensive, but engaging!
by Dee on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:59 pm
BH the government should ignore any demands made to it by Abbott.
Abbott does not warrant that respect.
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:59 pm
shellbell
I took Williams comment to be a cry of despair!
by MTBW on Apr 22, 2012 at 6:59 pm
What a shame. Slipper is the best Speaker federal parliament has had in some while.
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Womble, analogies of tents and pissing come to mind – this man has already walked from a party once – from national to liberal. It was probably thought that he was a loose cannon best kept in the tent.
by blackburnpseph on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:03 pm
confessions @2719,
Parliament does not sit for two weeks.
He could well be back in the chair by that time.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:03 pm
I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. Is there?
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Hi Centre re 2711
Thanks – I hope she does it as well as she did announcing the new Aged Care policy.
However not sure how this follows from my earlier comments – unless it was:
Fortes fortuna iuvat – sed non semper ???
f
by Fil R on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Doyley:
They will keep going after Slipper. I don’t think this latest beat up is an isolated incident.
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Connie I agree, Slipper is a good Speaker.
by Centre on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Bemused
A question that you may be able to provide an answer for.
A few months back it was very strongly rumoured that Anna Burke was going to retire at the next election. Just last week, we had a “What Anna Burke has done for you” insert in our local paper – despite the fact that we are not in her electorate – now, or after the redistribution.
Is she going to stay on? The latest Newspoll state by states show that Chisholm will be right on the line ball (after redistribution) . Is she staying on as the best way Labor see of holding the seat?
by blackburnpseph on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Sigh.
There is a difference between the situation Slipper is in – and the position he holds – and the position Thomson is in.
That’s all.
by zoomster on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:07 pm
rua: is this what you were alluding to?
To victoria, gary, dee et al
A very interesting article discussing the Implications of James Ashby Suing re Slipper allegations. And the implications lie squarely with plausible deniability and OH&S legislations.
The best though, according to this article, is that the implications (dire) all fall on the Libs. Remember, this is solely the implications regarding the alleged sexual harassment.
http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2012/04/22/james-ashby-sues-the-implications/
Hope this is right
PS Kudos to whoever posted the link this morning. I bookmarked it but can’t recall the poster.
by kezza2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:07 pm
LNP dirt units!!!! shock, horror!!! Dirt units at all in our politcial maelstrom!! What will people think of next??
by blackburnpseph on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Dubious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Dubious is where from some angle someone with eyes who knew the rules might possibly agree with a call that from the other 359 degrees is clearly wrong.
The only thing dubious about the refereeing was the 90 odd minutes before that, that last decision was well beyond dubious.
by WeWantPaul on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Is that right, I have almost stopped reading as the “voice of Doom” really gets to me
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:12 pm
I hope FWA is tasked to do the slipper investigation. 3 years is more then enough time to keep slipper under wraps untill he is booted at the next election
by rummel on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Some substantive policies maybe?
I know, I know, it was just a thought.
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:13 pm
The main issue, someone mentioned earlier today, should be, Abbott’s call for the Federal Police to intervene on the Slipper matter.
It is a scary prospect that a possible future P.M., imagines, the force is at his disposal.
He fails to understand, yet again, that separation of powers, is a basic requirement of a functioning democracy.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Geoffrey the whole world is fallible, even you and I.
Politics is not about perfection but working together for the best outcome with the cards we are dealt. I would love to wish away the tumour in my belly but that isn’t an option open to me. I have choices – I can give up, give in or fight. I would love to wish the Labor party and the other parties of the left into easy majorities and a fair press but that option isn’t open to me. I have choices -give up, give in or fight.
Life is not a spectator sport. Politics is not about winning arm chair debates in the club and scoring points – it is about fundamentals to do with how our society functions at its most basic level. I don’t give f*ying f*ck what Julia Gillard sounds like – I can’t think of a politician in living memory who sounded like pleasant to the ear.
What I care about is that for all her faults and mine we are both fighting for the same outcome. And she is fighting a damn sight harder than some of you sanctimonious bludgers here.
by Gweneth on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Off topic I know but I just watched the ABC news and saw Cameron Murphy from the Civil Liberties Council having his say about Police shootings in Sydney.
He is one smart guy and some may not know that he is the son of Lionel Murphy. Like father like son!
by MTBW on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:17 pm
This is Euro for:
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/football/football-match-centre/live-roar-v-glory-20120422-1xepf.html#ixzz1sl8sBAIq
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Gee, and I wonder what Abbott was discussing with Greg Sheridan at that cosy lunch a few days ago?
The way I see it now, we have a member of Parliament, elected and preselected under the Liberal banner, now subject to criminal accusations, which are a damning condemnation of Liberal party probity and ethical standards, and who, remaining in Parliament will vote against the Liberals at every opportunity as payback.
And if innocent, will still vote against the Liberal Party at every opportunity as payback.
Win win for Labor I would have thought.
by Fulvio Sammut on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:17 pm
MTBW
I have only seeing the still photo, but a copper punching some bloke who has gone a bullet in his neck is beyond the pale.
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:19 pm
shellbell
Couldn’t agree more!
by MTBW on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Confessions
I have no doubt that the media are sitting on dirt files strategically releasing them,
1. When a Coalition member stuffs up
2. Or, when it looks like the government is getting positive coverage
by Dee on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Geebus Brisbane Roar score all the goals and Perth think they won somehow. Hey Glory seekers put the ball in the net before you whine about loosing.
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:24 pm
George Bludger think Leroy and I have been engaginjg Karen M on Twitter about some decent Journo asking Tony A what he knew about Slipper before 2011, she was very reasonable, but said chance of him being asked was 0% but did give a +1 for question
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:25 pm
That’s how I understood it, but decided to remind him of the history of Liberal Board stacking. That is just as undeniable as it’s effect on ABC and SBS viewing, in the political sphere.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Breaking News!
Barnett declares war on Albania!
by Fulvio Sammut on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:26 pm
shellbell
Caught a brief part of AM yesterday morning where PB was commenting on exactly that topic. He is a good man PB.
by MTBW on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:26 pm
blackburnpseph @ 2726
I have heard no suggestion that she will retire. But I have moved to a branch in my new electorate so am not as in touch as I used to be.
I will have a chance to ask someone who should know her intentions tomorrow.
I have heard that the member in the electorate I have been re-distributed into, Alan Griffin, will be retiring.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Sorry. I am a tad emotional at the moment. *deep breath* * exhale*
by Gweneth on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:27 pm
2 weeks a long time in politics; a very short time for an investigation.
What on earth does ‘stand aside’ mean? Been out all day and just trying to make sense of this.
Slipper can’t vote deliberatively whilst still sworn as Speaker. Parl reduced to 149.
ALP 74 + Deputy Speaker in chair. Opp 73. Wilkie.
Budget has to pass. Deputy (acting?) Speaker calls vote. She has deliberative vote if Wilkie sides with Opp? (Casting vote is officially still Slipper’s, yet you can only exercise casting vote from chair, as far as I know.)
Anyone analysed this?
by Graeme Orr on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:28 pm