Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
confessions
tch tch. at least we have been heard. think of the big picture. think 2010, 1975. only difference is that labor party do not acknowledge the catastophe.
this is not personality thing at all. it is one of strategy, ethics, publicity and o yes, policy
but yes julia is a pretty average incumbent pm – true, some think that. but not at all with great strengths and skills. also true
night
by geoffrey on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:32 pm
confessions @ 2929
Absolute bs.
I support the Government and the implementation of it’s policies.
Unfortunately some such as you feel that the only way the PM can be seen to succeed is if Kevin Rudd is continually denigrated.
I don’t think it’s likely to happen, but if he regained the leadership, it would be hilarious to watch your mental gyrations.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Actually Confessions, it’s you who has a pathological hatred towards Kevin Rudd.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:32 pm
What an odd thing to say. Do you not support the raft of reforms the current govt is implementing?
If voters choose Abbott and the LNP over a functioning, reforming govt, that’s up to them. But the Pm’s record of achievement will stand.
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:35 pm
yes we should be very surprised rudd has been as well behaved as he has .. a few leaks if that are much less damaging than pulling the plug on the government. bullies always want apprecation and respect from their victims. anyway enough of this lovely dialogue today – the poor government has to survive another week, and month, and we all hope it does that indeed
by geoffrey on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:38 pm
People want to accuse Rudd of treachery?
Well lets look back at the leaking and undermining of Rudd by Gillard’s supporters a full 12 months before hand in order to bring down his polls and make the coup against him acceptable. And Gillard at least two weeks before hand plotting or at least aware of the plot, to knife Rudd in the dead of night, but saying the opposite.
The plotting against and mid-night knifing of a first term PM, one that bought you out of a decade of opposition, for no legitimate reason whatsoever apart from factional power brokers have their power stomped on, is the highest of all treacheries. Not just against the Party, or the person of Kevin Rudd, but against the voters and democracy – which Gillard and factions think a toy for their pleasure.
The the intense smearing of Rudd as soon as they knifed him, to denigrate his name in order to help legitimise Gillard’s unsupportable coup. Oh, and the poor dears when continually setting about smearing Rudd, copped some in retaliation.
It is like saying to a victim, STUF or will bash you again, and again, and again. And when the victim stands up for themselves the cult of Gillard says, he should lay down and take it for the party. And when he doesnt, well of course he is treacherous.
The only thing worthless and treacherous is the current state of the Labor party.
by Thomas. Paine on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Julia/Wayne/Shorten etc are reaping what they sowed in June 2010 – end of story!
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Won’t be much of an achievement if Abbott sets about systematically rescinding every single one as he has promised to do!
by scorpio on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:41 pm
C@tmomma @ 2933
What an outstanding example of a “loyal” ALP member. He would be prepared to bring down a Labor government because he dislikes the leader. He should not receive endorsement in future.
Such is the company you apparently keep and the opinions you endorse.
I work for the ALP regardless of who the leader is.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Speaking of pathological hatred.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Thomas Paine: It’s the same old story – whenever the Gillard Government hits another hurdle, it’s time to pull out the old “Blame Kevin Rudd” card.
What’s next? James Ashby was planted in Slipper’s office by Rudd?
The Cult of Gillard is as delusional as ever – face it, your golden girl and her mates in the AWU are taking the Labor Government to a defeat in 2013, one that could have been avoided.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Thornleigh Labor Man 2941
________________
Yes..Sometimes a touch like Pyongyang and the Dear Leader
by deblonay on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:44 pm
At the smell of Labor blood the usuals arrive.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Promises, promises! Tone is a self-confessed pathological liar.
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Really?
This isn’t the impression one gets from your comments here, and esp not from your constant denigration and patronising of party members. I’ve seen long term members like zoomster have to chip you for your constant talking down of the govt and the party.
You have no right taking the high moral ground with others.
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:47 pm
Did Labor do a proper background check on Peter Slipper before they offered him the Speaker’s gig?
This was always going to be fraught with risk.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Abbott will not win the next election.
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Thomas,
OK, I’ll withdraw ‘treachery’ and replace it with ‘revenge’.
by drake on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Gary @ 2962
Your arrival was noted.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Slipper hasn’t been found guilty of anything yet.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:49 pm
The polls would suggest otherwise.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:50 pm
And look who hops into the fray first. Surprise, surprise, surprise.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:51 pm
confessions @ 2964
zoomster is a party member I respect despite some small differences of opinion.
You on the other hand….
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Andrew Elder’s latest.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/hockeys-entitlement.html
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Gary @ 2971
You did set yourself up for the obvious retort.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Don’t worry, once all those pensioners have an extra $300 in their bank accounts, they’ll be mobbing Julia & Wayne in the streets.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:52 pm
If PB is a great microcosm for the ALP/ Left then god help us.
Every time there’s a set back or a whiff of disaster everyone starts navel gazing and going back to Rudd v Gillard.
It’s as useless as the government constantly saying “Oh but John Howard did this and that”.
It achieves nothing to contemplate what mat have been. You have to play the cards you’re dealt, even if you deal them yourself.
by Burgey on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Goodnight all. Bedtime for me.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:53 pm
Really? I thought my message was very clear. There you go.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:53 pm
Probably not. It’s not the handout that will win them over, it’s the removal that will irk them and guess who is promising that.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:54 pm
The bigger problem will be the small businesses who aren’t being compensated for higher electricity bills – that’s where Abbott & News Ltd will be focusing their anti-Carbon Tax campaign on.
I honestly think that things are going to get worse for this government after July 1, not better.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:58 pm
There’s a lot said about ‘loyalty’ on PB.
I try to be loyal to my beliefs, not some institution. The only reason I support Labor is because they come closer to my beliefs than the alternatives. It doesn’t mean that Labor define my beliefs, such that I may never question what they do. That’s absurd.
If I criticise Labor, I do it because I don’t agree with what they’re doing or because my beliefs demand that I should.
Try telling those who have drifted to the Coalition that they’re ‘disloyal’ and should therefore return to the fold. Again, absurd.
by drake on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:00 am
That’s your hope, we’ll see.
by Gary on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:01 am
I think you are being a bit presumptuous in suggesting others here aren’t.
by Gary on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:03 am
The polls are stuck at 56 Coalition, 44 Labor.
If Gillard can turn that around into an election victory in 2013, good luck to her – I don’t like her chances.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:04 am
You can bet on it.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/new-crisis-engulfs-labor-20120422-1xfbf.html#ixzz1smIYsrYC
by Gary on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:05 am
At the moment.
by Gary on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:05 am
So according to Graatan a new crisis has gripped Labor although the heat has been taken out of the issue and Slipper denies all charges.
by Gary on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:08 am
I’m off to bed, with the window wide open.
I live near the Darrell Lea factory in Kogarah and the sweet smell of strawberry creams is in the air.
by drake on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:20 am
The latest Lewis sleaze against Slipper.
All re, taxis and airfares, and all while he was a Liberal MP.
Most occurred before the 2010 election, yet the Libs re-endorsed him for his seat.
Total cost around $4,000.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/mystery-trips-add-to-speaker-peter-slippers-woes/story-e6freuzr-1226335687621
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:25 am
good night all. Except Evan 2GB of course.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:26 am
Journalists must love the luxury of being able to write what-if articles about the election this far out. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-would-lose-both-chambers-if-an-election-were-held-now-20120422-1xf72.html
by rishane on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:48 am
And Lenore Taylor’s article is (sadly) yet another example of the media tendency to write articles bagging Labor for not being able to get its message out while ignoring the role of the selfsame media in preventing that message getting out: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/budgeting-on-revival-amid-sense-of-perpetual-crisis-20120422-1xf51.html
by rishane on Apr 23, 2012 at 12:52 am
gary
yes. polls will soon be 60 40
that’s what you meant isn’t it
by geoffrey on Apr 23, 2012 at 1:07 am
and of course after today the cause of poorer polling will be the disunity and division caused by a few on PB who have played right into the hand of the dark forces and who knows might even be infiltrators
by geoffrey on Apr 23, 2012 at 1:09 am
i think i am finally alone …
by geoffrey on Apr 23, 2012 at 1:10 am
que sera sera
the days of infighting and pathology are over or will be
a dialectic plays itself out
by geoffrey on Apr 23, 2012 at 1:13 am
Gary
“Julia/Wayne/Shorten etc are reaping what they sowed in June 2010 – end of story!”
not hatred. just fact. avoided at peril
by geoffrey on Apr 23, 2012 at 1:16 am
drake ends this torturous day with something sublime
“I live near the Darrell Lea factory in Kogarah and the sweet smell of strawberry creams is in the air.”
it’s called peace of mind
real the SMH – I think the blog is living in a delusion. o but of course all the msm are conspiratorial. but isn’t the job of government PR to cultivate the media. i’m confused.
by geoffrey on Apr 23, 2012 at 1:30 am
Did Gillard ever hear the old saying…if you lie down with dogs,you get up with fleas ??
by deblonay on Apr 23, 2012 at 2:23 am