Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mari
I too noticed the odd thing on Yahoo7. The Slipper thing was there front and centre. Now is has all but disappeared.
One comment from Abbott about S stepping aside and this is from AAP.
Something very odd about all this.
Usually, if it is bad news for the government, they pick a glum looking picture of JG and, on some occasions, leave it there for over 24 hours.
With Slipper, as large as life and hour or two ago, sitting in his parliamentary seat and now -pfffffffffffft – gone. Not even a reference in the main headers.
Maybe (perhaps too early to say) there are other irons in the fire?
Still large as life on ABC though – doing Murdoch’s good work.
Very odd.
by Tricot on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:05 pm
mytbw – thank goodness you want RR. I can have George Clooney to myself. Taa
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:06 pm
For Sky News the same story, written by the same journalist, but printed on different mastheads, which are, however owned, by the same company equals:
Sheesh.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:06 pm
guytaur
Can’t agree! People like Shorten Feeney et al wanted the power and positions for themselves.
Where are Bitar and Arbib now? Bitar is with Packer and Arbib not known yet. It will be very interesting to see where he goes next.
Their job was done!
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:07 pm
[ I do have one fantasy that is that one day Robert Redford will knock at my door. [
I assume the 1980 version and not the 2012 one!
by scorpio on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:08 pm
BH
We could always share!
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:08 pm
If by ‘sticking to your guns’ you mean flipped his position to maintain his contrarian status, then you’re right.
Fact is, up until the day Rudd was removed, out of everybody here, he was the one who was most vocally supportive of Gillard dumping Rudd. Then it happened and instantaneously he became Rudd’s biggest supporter and cursed Gillard for her act.
And it’s not like he is humbled by his mistake as other Rudd supporters are. No, he carries on like what Gillard did was unforgivable and inadvisable and he was against it the whole time. That’s right, never has he admitted he was wrong. Never has he said “oh it seemed like a good idea at the time but things went awry!” no, he was always against it now. When confronted by direct quotes proving this inconsistency, he either conveniently bails, ignores it or just resorts to some straw man argument while calling everybody who disagrees with him a blind hack.
He is just a contrarian attention-seeker and, I can guarantee you that, if Gillard were dumped, he would magically change his tune again and berate the Labor party for being a sexist boys club that dumped a PM that was doing stuff in favour for a recycled dud or someone else who would suddenly be considered unqualified for the job.
So can we please stop canonising him now?
by Carey Moore on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:08 pm
And?
by itsthevibe on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:09 pm
I can’t believe the way News has gone after Slipper since his election. I don’t care if any or all of the allegations are true the News behavior is much much worse as is the libs who gave this guy they are now helping News try to destroy a seat in Parliament, not just once or twice before they ‘knew’ but over again.
The Libs and News make natural allies, same levels of integrity and ability to deal with facts…
by WeWantPaul on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:09 pm
scorpio
We don’t need that sort of detail thank you!
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:09 pm
mtbw
It is all fantasy. He was dumped. He is not there. We have to deal with the reality we have. The reality we have is that changing PM again will see more slumps in polls.
No matter whom it is changed to.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:10 pm
carey Moore
Hi good to hear from you. Trust all is well in your neck of the woods?
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:12 pm
BB – Correllio is a serial RW pest on twitter, no one famous. Attacks people often, even got blocked by Malcolm Turnbull.
by Leroy on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:14 pm
tricot
Is it odd, or does Yahoo move on to the next story throughout the day?
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Especially if the Liberal Party have guaranteed costs.
Refer to Abbott’s little adventure in prosecuting Pauline Hansen. They have form in this regard.
by scorpio on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Gary,
Im not saying that Rudd would have won the last election. I’m simply making the point that Labor’s fortunes have declined since he was removed and there’s a strong argument to be made that the electorate didn’t like what happened and would prefer him to Julia Gillard.
Arguing about it is a waste of time and effort, you’re right about that. I only bring it up because of the Peter Slipper story today, in that I trace the need to appoint Slipper as Speaker, and the difficulties of minority government generally, back to Rudd’s removal.
I accept it may be a bit simplistic, and am happy to leave it at that.
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Scorps – good one, thanks. I have been trying all morning to think of the bloke’s name (as if I should ever forget). Well Colston stuck around to give the Libs the votes they needed in the Senate and seeing that the Slipper issue is a civil court matter I can’t see how Slipper can be made to move aside.
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:15 pm
And now…….even the Abbott comment “Speaker should step aside” gone from Yahoo 7.
Very, very odd.
Not saying it won’t come back but the speed that this “explosive” news item – as it was described just four hours ago, is astounding.
Me smells pungent dead fish aroma or maybe I is just a bit too cynical these days?
by Tricot on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:16 pm
The way the story seems to be disappearing from some sites this not even make it through one day.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:17 pm
add “just disappeared” is astounding in 867
by Tricot on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:18 pm
mari
[He wouldn’t be able to keep up with you, hasn’t aged well. But those eyes are still wonderful, I still visualise him in “Out of Africa”}
And in “The Way We Were” ….. sigh! You wouldn’t close the door in his face if he knocked though would you?
Mind you I don’t recognize myself in the mirror sometimes either there seems to be some wrinkles there.
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:18 pm
On the Nine site it has gone from first to second story.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:19 pm
ABC is doing the denies allegations headline.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:20 pm
C u guys later. Off to stimulate the economy!!
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Two more from george.
http://tinyurl.com/85tbmye
http://tinyurl.com/7nchq6v
by BK on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:22 pm
stabbing, knifing and Assange … my day is complete.
sigh …
by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Carey,
Yes, I’ve seen undeniable proof of Thomas’s switch. Someone posted copies of the things Thomas has said that go to exactly what you are saying. I accept that.
Nor was I “canonising” him. I described his feelings as hatred that was pathological and bizarre.
But I am, in my opinion, forced by the facts to concede that he has been right all along (since his “switch”, that is) to assert that the whole thing was a big mistake.
Anyway, Carey, how have you been? I sometimes catch your comments on twitter but you’re not around as much as you used to be.
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Glad someone else noticed this too, Yahoo 7 is not know as a fan of ALP so there is a reason, think it as I said be the legal eagles urging caution, ninesman just Slipper rejecting the claim and also Fairfax too before it disappeared, all very strange. But ABC as long as they have Scott will continue to do Murdoch’s work
Off now,
by mari on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:24 pm
CareyM – well remembered except I think TP maintained JG would be terrific for another couple of days.
As Gweneth says – decision’s been made. Let’s sweat the difficult stuff now.
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Well put, I also wonder who is that person looking back at me in the mirror, AND no I wouldn’t close the door if he came knocking, sure wouldn’t!
by mari on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:27 pm
mytbw – sorry, you had your chance but fluffed it. You went for the blond hair/blue eyes as I used too and then GC arrived. I is gunna be selfish!
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:27 pm
BB, Correllio is arguably the biggest Nutter inthe entire twitterverse. And there’s plenty of competition.
by Burgey on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:28 pm
The “phone incident” occurred on March 9th, just over a month ago. Ashby allegedly flicked a reporter’s (Owen Jacques’) phone from his hands as he was recording a Slipper presser, saying, “Go get it, Owen.”
Ashby’s action was reported to police by the seemingly glass-jawed Jacques, who claimed to have been “shaken” by the incident.
Ashby tweeted:
So sometime between then and yesterday, Ashby has resigned, then decided that he was so put upon by the alleged attentions of Slipper during December/January and had been so greviously wronged that he’s now prepared to take it to court, suing the government as well as Slipper personally.
That night the News Ltd newspapers organize a nationwide coverage of the story, citing “Court documents”, “obtained” by Steve Lewis, written as an “exclusive”… and it’s all over Australia by the next morning.
A couple of hours ago, on the basis of this story Abbott calls for Slipper to stand down.
Decidedly fishy.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:29 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/national/speaker-denies-sexual-misconduct-claims-20120421-1xdcy.html
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:29 pm
BH
You win!
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Why this scandal is melting before our eyes.
http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2012/04/21/guilty-till-prove-innocent/
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:33 pm
I have much more interesting news than a media claiming scandal:
Gundam entertainment facility opens in Tokyo, attracts fans
http://mainichi.jp/english/english/features/news/20120420p2g00m0et046000c.html
by zoidlord on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Sky News trying to create a scandal out of absolutely nothing. All morning they have had a headline running -’Gillard overseas for ANZAC’. When you actually read the story it says what we all knew anyway, the PM is off to Singapore for talks and meetings and will then head to Gallipoli for Anzac Day. But let’s not allow the facts to get in the way of a sensationalist headline designed simply to inspire ‘how dare she insult our diggers’ type comments from idiots who get their info from skimming, not reading.
by leone on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Diogenes 781:
It’s the flirting game – however in the case of harassment, partic employer/employee harassment, it is common for the harasser to not believe the signals that the attentions aren’t welcome.
Outsider 786: Without knowing the evidence in the Comm Bank case its hard to make an assessment.
Drake: 787. I understand the political dilemma Gillard and Co are in. However the risks of appointing Slipper were so great they more than outweighed the risk of Wilkie voting no confidence or denying supply imo, and the price is now being paid.
Greensborough Growler 776: fwiw am a life time – more than 50 years – Labor supporter (and ex staffer) who, since the first sitting Labor PM was decapitated by the party in 1990, has always voted informal. If Simon Crean had not also been decapitated by Labor, would have voted in 2004. Date the descent of the party from those two events. If he took over as leader, got rid of carbon tax, revamped FWA and returned the govt to being a true Labor govt looking after the interests of the workers and their families instead of a bunch of post post modern spin merchants sucking to the Greens, I would vote Labor again.
Wish to make the point that generally in these high profile cases others come out of the woodwork and make supporting allegations. Herman Cain being most recent example.
Absent the case being withdrawn, settled or discredited before Parliament re-sits, Gillard will have no choice but to ask Slipper to stand aside – probably by end of next week. I don’t think Lewis and the Tele is done with the revelations yet.
by Bar Bar on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Someone please make an allegation against Tony Abbott. Claim whatever form of abuse you like, as long as it will be enough to get the paperwork into court. Then we can all deluge the Fibs with demands for Abbott to resign.
by leone on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:39 pm
G g,
It i trigues me how you know about all these sites.”
Wish i was allowed to say, this is what i ahave been praying for all morning
But thats an invisible sentance you did not see
that.
Up to my 5 th decade
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Of course Gillard’s position on this isn’t considered.
If she asked Slipper to stand down over accusations for a civil proceeding, that would set a precedent …
But who cares about precedents. Abbott’s certaintly set many radical precedents during this term of government which would go against his so called conservatism.
by spur212 on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Imre Salusinszky on Twitter reports Anne Sudmalis (ally of Joanna Gash) wins Gilmore preselection over Andrew Guile (bitter non-ally of Joanna Gash) 16 votes to 10, with Alby Schultz’s son Grant third with four votes.
by William Bowe on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:42 pm
I wonder if this could be ” that step too far “. The universe does have a wonderful sense of irony if it proves to be the case.
by Ian on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:42 pm
If Slipper should step down why didn’t Mary Jo Fisher step down?
If Slipper should step down why hasn’t Sophie Mirabella stepped down?
by muttleymcgee on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:43 pm
ZOIDLORD
Dash the comments are in japanese,
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Bar bar,
Having not voted for Labor over the last 22 years does not qualify you as a lifetime Labor supporter! So, kindly, get off the grass.
On the richter scale of scandals this one hasn’t got any evidence or independant witnesses. It’s a penny bunger without the bung.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Thank goodness i i need no fantasies in my life.
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Do not tell news limited
http://www.smh.com.au/world/conservative-jews-to-allow-gay-rabbis-20120421-1xddo.html
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Thank goodness i i need no fantasies in my life.
,,,,,’
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 1:50 pm