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Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

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  • 1
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:43 pm | Permalink

    Hands up if you consider this observation by Bernard Keane to be controversial:

    Like Greiner, Gillard has racked up some substantial reforms, although Greiner’s record was significantly better

  • 2
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:44 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott also called Windsor & Oakshott “shameless” this morning.

  • 3
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:45 pm | Permalink

    Greiner was very good (and I was working for him) but JG’s achievements are bigger and much more difficult to achieve.

  • 4
    Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2011/politics/callous-abbott-hypocrisy-installs-slipper-as-speaker/

  • 5
    my say
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

    ed Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

    )(y Abbott by 26% of men and 19% of women.)

    WOULD SOME ONE PLEASE TWEET THIS TO abbott, ) L % (+5%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 23% (+1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 14% (-‐3%) Joe Hockey. Among Liberal/Nationalvoters, 39%(and this

    Ess, doesnt get our there a lot but this good to let liberals know about their boy

  • 6
    my say
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

    Shellbell
    Still dont have a crickey sub

  • 7
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

    Have been out all morning could someone confirm or otherwise what I just heard on the 1:30 news that Oakeshott has said he has an open mind on a “no confidence vote” in the Parliament.

  • 8
    drake
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

    The Slipper affair tarnishes the two major parties and reinforces the perception for many that both parties lack integrity.

    The Slipper affair does not reflect on the Greens Party parliamentarians at all.

    The above is a quote from Pegasus @3287 in the previous thread.

    Further back in that thread, Pegasus claimed the Prime Minister was dog-whistling to blue collar voters who had left Labor for the Coalition. The general theme, as always with the Greens, is one of elevated morality.

    There is, however, a major flaw in these arguments.

    Regardless of their assertions, the fact remains that the Greens continue to give support to this minority government. They could, at any time, withdraw it. So, when the Greens try to land the blame for Slipper squarely at the feet of the major parties, they conveniently avoid telling us that they had every chance to question his integrity and to oppose his appointment – but they didn’t. They didn’t, because it suited their political objective as a minority government partner that desperately needed the buffer of another vote. Likewise, the Greens continue to support a minority government that Pegasus accuses of dog-whistling. Why? Because it suits their political objectives.

    Over the course of this parliament, the Greens have shown that they will abandon principle and horse-trade with the best of them to get what they want.

    They really are just another political party.

  • 9
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

    my say

    Just on the front page – no sub needed

  • 10
    bluegreen
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink

    Question for ALP

    Whys is Bob Brown’s approval rating amongst ALP voters so much higher than Gillards?

  • 11
    Gary
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    Whys is Bob Brown’s approval rating amongst ALP voters so much higher than Gillards?

    Who knows. To my way of thinking the polls are full of contradictions at the moment.

  • 12
    Cuppa
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:54 pm | Permalink

    Finnigans,

    Tony Abbott also called Windsor & Oakshott “shameless” this morning.

    Right-Wing Projection.

  • 13
    BH
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    Greiner was very good (and I was working for him) but JG’s achievements are bigger and much more difficult to achieve.

    SK – I’d have to agree with that. Greiner was pulled down by some colleagues and some of the decisions (Pt Macq Hospital), Sydney Tunnel cost the State a lot of money .. make that are still costing the State a lot of money. Overall tho he did know what he wanted to do. Metherell gave him a bad look as did a couple of others.

  • 14
    Fil R
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:57 pm | Permalink

    So based on this and roughly averaging other recent polls, Labor at the moment would need to increase its 2 party pref. vote by about 17% to win an election outright.

    Definitely the election would be the Coalition’s to lose. Not good for Labor, but not in Qld/NSW loss territory, and there is still about 17 months.

    F

  • 15
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

    I just heard on the 1:30 news that Oakeshott has said he has an open mind on a “no confidence vote” in the Parliament.

    you heard it wRONg. Oakshott was referring to no confidence on the Speaker, not the Govt

  • 16
    CTar1
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

    BG –

    Whys is Bob Brown’s approval rating amongst ALP voters so much higher than Gillards?

    Because he retiring so no one cares?

  • 17
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    Do you too “not have a Crikey sub”? Well, there’s not time like the present! The Poll Bludger group subscription offer closes Wednesday, and we’ve cleared 50 takers to the going rate is just $75.

  • 18
    joe2
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    Have been out all morning could someone confirm or otherwise what I just heard on the 1:30 news that Oakeshott has said he has an open mind on a “no confidence vote” in the Parliament.

    “no confidence vote”… on the speaker, not the government…. and only if the allegations were correct.

  • 19
    Pegasus
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    Danny Lewis,

    Didn’t Adam Bandt vote “yes” in the Slipper For Speaker vote?

    Selective memory ;-)

    Fact: Slipper was nominated unopposed and installed as Speaker on 24 November 2011.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-24/slipper-installed-as-new-speaker/3691680

    The move pitched Mr Slipper into the spotlight, with the Labor Caucus wasting little time in nominating him for the Speaker's role….

    Manager of Opposition business Christopher Pyne stepped up to nominate a succession of Labor MPs for the job instead.

    All declined; Anna Burke, Dick Adams, Sid Sidebottom, Sharon Bird, Kirsten Livermore, Steve Georganas ... the list went on.

    Finally Mr Pyne gave up the unequal task and Mr Slipper's election to the Speaker's role was confirmed.

  • 20
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    bluegreen – Bob Brown “is” the Greens. If you support them, or if you are happy they support the current ALP government and see them benignly, I would expect to you to say Bob’s OK. There are (or were) no real leadership rivals for him in the public eye, so the vote is not split.

  • 21
    victoria
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    William Bowe

    Put me down for a subscription. Send me details re same

  • 22
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    2013 looks like another “unloaseable” election for the Fibs. Remember last time in 1993 they lost one. They have form and know how.

  • 23
    victoria
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Permalink

    The Finnigans

    Things look much worse for Labor this time around

  • 24
    Fil R
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

    Hi Drake re 8

    Over the course of this parliament, the Greens have shown that they will abandon principle and horse-trade with the best of them to get what they want.

    They really are just another political party.

    Of course they are – as a Labor member I can’t forget seeing the Green senators sitting with the Coalition to defeat the ETS in 2009; but for that we would now be 2 years into anti carbon action and also before the deniers had time to regroup as they have done successfully so far.

    However I can’t deny their right to put their point of view, and I am a believer in constructively working with the Greens where possible.

    F

  • 25
    Leroy
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-23/barnett-considers-state-seat/3966786

    Barnett considers bid for state seat
    Posted April 23, 2012 12:49:12

    Former Tasmanian Liberal Senator Guy Barnett has revealed he is considering running for State Parliament at the next election.

    Mr Barnett has been out of the public eye since he lost his Senate seat of more than nine years at the 2010 election.

    He blamed the loss on his placement at number three on the Liberals' ticket, behind Senator Stephen Parry.

    Mr Barnett says he has no plans to recontest his Senate seat, and has no hard feelings towards the party.

    "I've moved on from that, that's now history. I loved working and supporting and being an advocate for Tasmania in the Senate."

  • 26
    Fil R
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

    Some incredible rolling thunder at the moment – is Abbott doing a presser?

    F

  • 27
    bemused
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

    bluegreen @ 10

    Question for ALP

    Whys is Bob Brown’s approval rating amongst ALP voters so much higher than Gillards?

    Careful bg, the “cult” will come out in full fury to bag you.

  • 28
    victoria
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

    Fil R

    I am in Melbourne, and. Boy was that loud just then!!!

  • 29
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:11 pm | Permalink

    So, now they are staking out Peter Slipper’s home and getting views from “random people” all of whom want him gone.

  • 30
    bluegreen
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:11 pm | Permalink

    Careful bg, the “cult” will come out in full fury to bag you.

    No one has posted Gillard’s relative rating to Rudd. Worse than Abbott v Turnbull

  • 31
    Gary
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:11 pm | Permalink

    Some incredible rolling thunder at the moment

    You must be in Melbourne. It is black outside.

  • 32
    BH
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

    Do you too “not have a Crikey sub”? Well, there’s not time like the present! The Poll Bludger group subscription offer closes Wednesday, and we’ve cleared 50 takers to the going rate is just $75.

    Whoo hoo!! I’m in the money. I get 10 bucks back – now what should I spend that on!!

  • 33
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

    Smithy has just exposed another lie by Abbott. The Commander of ADFA was asked to step aside by his Defence Bosses not by the Gillard Govt

  • 34
    Son of foro
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

    once it fades off into nothing the MSM will simply refer to “SlipperGate” as an embarrassing episode for the Govt without explaining that it was all a beat up.

    That’s exactly right. It’s the obvious tactic and it’s working.

  • 35
    victoria
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

    Ducky

    This is getting quite ridiculous. They are trying to hound him out of parliament. He could eventually take this course and take a few casualties with him

  • 36
    Centre
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

    So let’s analyse the preferred leaders figures with commonsense.

    Among Labor voters; Gillard is preferred over Rudd by 40% to 33%.

    Among Coalition voters; Abbott is preferred over Turnbull by 39% to 26%.

    There are two critical factors that must be taken into account in the above statistics:

    1. The Coalition leads Labor by 49% to 31% on the primary vote, this means that because of such a lead, more Coalition voters are reluctant to want to see a change from Tony Abbott.

    The question must be asked; how much more preferred will Abbott be as leader of the Liberals if the polls were to narrow?

    2. Malcolm Turnbull is much less liked than Kevin Rudd by their respective Party voters, yet Turnbull only scores 6% less than Rudd.

    Abbott is a failure and I for one am keeping the faith that he won’t last for the next election.

  • 37
    Fil R
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

    Hi Victoria re 28

    And very very dark for 10 or so minutes – it seems to have blown over; let’s all hope just like Abbott might some day….

  • 38
    BH
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

    Slipper was nominated unopposed and installed as Speaker on 24 November 2011.

    Peg – you funny sausage – the Greens could have opposed it. It was spoken of for a day or so before he was appointed. Plenty of time for Bob to have a word in Julia’s shellpink ear and say ‘no, we won’t agree’.

  • 39
    victoria
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

    Fil R

    I just checked Bureau of Meteorology. Looks like a fast moving storm

  • 40
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

    BH,

    I don’t know why you bother. As soon as Pegs starts posting about Greens integrity you know she’s off with the fairies.

  • 41
    Fil R
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

    Hi Gary re 31

    You must be in Melbourne. It is black outside.

    Guilty!

    F

  • 42
    Danny Lewis
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

    Ah, thanks Pegasus.

    I was asking a hypothetical question, rather than (as you seem to think) being sarcastic; I honestly just couldn’t remember.

  • 43
    bemused
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

    Fil R @ 37

    Hi Victoria re 28

    And very very dark for 10 or so minutes – it seems to have blown over

    Radar shows more on the way…

  • 44
    MTBW
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    joe2

    Thanks! I feel a little better now!

  • 45
    bemused
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    bluegreen @ 30

    No one has posted Gillard’s relative rating to Rudd. Worse than Abbott v Turnbull

    Inconvenient facts are not welcome here.

  • 46
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

    Does this approach to journalism ring any bells?

    http://www.journalism.co.uk/news/mps-reveal-news-international-pressure-to-hold-back-on-hacking-investigation/s2/a548862/

  • 47
    Centre
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    Why is Bob Brown's approval rating amongst ALP voters so much higher than Gillards?

    That’s easy!

    There were never any leadership tensions in the Greens Party.

    What’s your point, something stupidly spun obviously?

  • 48
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    No one has posted Gillard’s relative rating to Rudd. Worse than Abbott v Turnbull

    Why bother with Rudd. He is already in the dust bin of history but not Turnbull. He’s still a player.

  • 49
    BH
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    GG – I’m doing a ‘Peg’. She says she doesn’t post here for us but for lurkers who might like to have info re the Greens so I am just giving them a fact.

  • 50
    BSA Bob
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

    Carrying on from stuff on the previous thread, my embarassment at Abbott & the media has long coloured my view of this country.

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