Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).
Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:
• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.
• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.
• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I wonder if
1) Mr Howard and others at the very top in the liberal party were fully briefed on this matter prior to it breaking as it seems to be hitting on some of those close to the ex PM eg Mr Nutt and
2) will Mr Howard and others allow this to drag on and get to court with the possibility of damage being done to Howard and
3) will someone be getting a tap on the shoulder and asked to make sure this whole matter fades into the sunset and
4) will Mr Ashby be left stranded ?
I am not drawing any comparison at all but it seemed when the going got tough Mr Grech was without friends.
by Doyley on Apr 24, 2012 at 8:56 am
Boerwar
It is a welcome return for Bluey. He will have much to consider.
Including, I hope, some reference to the delightful work of Ms Mirabella.
by BK on Apr 24, 2012 at 8:57 am
Bushfire Bill
1. Could be Ashby, his lawyers, Ashby’s family, a mining magnate, the local masons – no one will ever know unless someone leaks the information or an order is sought that Ashby prove his capacity to pay legal fees of Slipper/Cth if he loses which is unlikely if person is an individual making his claim – eg Vivienne Dye was not the subject of any such order and CBA spent $9 million + defending her claims
2. See 1
3. The answer is probably no but if that rule was applied widely (it ius not) most individuals could not go to court
4. We will find out at the time of the preliminary hearing on 21 May. If not done , judge may stop the proceedings unless the statement is not required whcih is the case for claims involving the Fair Work Act
5. As for 1.
by shellbell on Apr 24, 2012 at 8:57 am
Confessions, as I understand it Labor nominated Slipper and the filth nominated Bruce Scott.
by Burgey on Apr 24, 2012 at 8:58 am
Boerwar:
Nice to see Bluey back!
by confessions on Apr 24, 2012 at 8:58 am
While I’m on the subject has Wilkie said anything about it all?
by Darn on Apr 24, 2012 at 8:58 am
Darn
There is always the possibility, given the treatment being meted out by the Libs to Slipper that if he is forced out of the office he will go to the cross benches with a stated intention to support the government (aka Up yours Tone!)
by BK on Apr 24, 2012 at 8:59 am
Burgey:
Slipper was deputy speaker in the previous parliament and the current one.
My point is that the LNP nominated him for the position knowing about these allegations. It is hypocritical of Abbott to claim that these allegations somehow make a difference to his position. Why were they not a consideration when they nominated him for DS?
by confessions on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:00 am
confessions/1157
Extremely good point.
by guytaur on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:00 am
darn:
Wilkie is all over it.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/wilkie-jockeys-to-shore-up-power-20120423-1xhjw.html
by confessions on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:00 am
guytaur:
Sipper enjoyed the confidence of his party as Deputy Speaker for 4 years. If the allegations are a problem now, why weren’t they a problem over the last 4 years?
by confessions on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:02 am
Lead story in the Guardian. The Murdoch Testimony to come.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/23/sky-news-leveson-apology-hacking
by guytaur on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:03 am
confessions
As well as the point Albo made about Slippers position as Parliamentary Secretary for John Howard.
by guytaur on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:04 am
Fairfax sinks the boot into Slipper under a FOI
Reads nice for a bit of tabloid beating up on pollies using perks, but nothing to suggest misuse apart from having to repay $20,000 to Finance when some claims were invalidated in the past. Not sure yet that equals Mal Coulston’s record.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:04 am
Brandis was crapping on as to why the Cth has no sought an idemnity from Slipper.
Leaving aside the legal minefield associated with that, the Australian Government solicitor needs more than a working day before it rushes off and makes decisions like that. The rules provide a couple of years for that decision
by shellbell on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:04 am
Brandis was crapping on as to why the Cth has no sought an idemnity from Slipper.
Leaving aside the legal minefield associated with that, the Australian Government solicitor needs more than a working day before it rushes off and makes decisions like that. The rules provide a couple of years for that decision
by shellbell on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:04 am
I think that’s exactly what he WOULD do under those circumstances. I really can’t see any likelihood that he will be forced out of parliament if he doesn’t want to go.
by Darn on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:05 am
Shellbell
I am thinking that the Coalition have a pretty poor bunch of lawyers advising them.
They rush out with some of the most amazing statements.
by guytaur on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:07 am
Abbott and the liberals now have the opportunity to get rid of slipper, since they say he is a problem now labor’s problem
So why arent the liberals telling the public , what did slipper do
Where are the smart people in the media t o ask Abbott that
by Meguire Bob on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:08 am
guytaur
Brandis is not giving legal advice and he knows it
by shellbell on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:09 am
Confessions
Thanks for the Wilkie link. I can’t see anything in it that would suggest he is about to support an Abbott government. The liberals can no more give him everything he wants in relation to pokies than the government can. It would destroy their credibility and they know it.
by Darn on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:10 am
Trawler
Hope and optimism is great but I am not sure I get your logic. Newman could freeze electricity prices again.
The CT will put up QLD electricity prices by roughly 10% and possibly much more for SOME businesses ie those getting a heavily discounted rate.
The actual REAL cost for your typical convenience store will be an additional $5-$15,000 per year assuming no discounts. The way some large electricity suppliers have been gouging small business suggests they will not offer discounts.
by daretotread on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:12 am
Expect to hear from Paul Keating in the next week or so. Apparently there are plans to develop a new “toaster” on Circular Quay. Developer is AMP.
by guytaur on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:13 am
Unsurprisingly, I suppose, the West has jumped on board with the Slipper stuff this morning.
Their approach is to kind of attack what Slipper has allegedly done, and something of his history, though with the emphasis that it is all sort of JG’s problem.
They are touting that the Independents (based on RO’s comments on ABC yesterday) may call a NCV against Slipper if………….
Of course, this has got the West in a tiz as they use the words – often – about the “fragile” nature of the current government “cobbled” together and the the “poor” judgement of the PM.
Not actually a call for “an early election now” as the ABC were doing in some survey last night, but you get the general drift.
This government is “no good” and we need the “Australian people” to have the “opportunity to speak” – crap.
Read here – vested interest.
In all of this though, I don’t think we can be too precious.
Labor went into this with Slipper with their eyes open. They knew he was damaged goods and they knew it was a risk to gain one more vote in the House in this way.
This may still work out. However, as the whole political caste is complicit in relation to Slipper, I don’t think there is much moral high ground for Labor.
What I still do think however, is that behind this deluge over the last few days, has been some money and effort on behalf of those who we do not know but might suspect.
This whole thing has a mighty bad smell and I would love someone to actually find proof of this. Not so much a conspiracy, but a constructed attempt to damage – which at this point it does.
However, as it often the case, the mud throwers don’t always know where the mud will splatter and there is always some left on their hands. The Liberals and their mates may come to rue this yet.
As was said on ABC news this morning that “The Liberal Party is trying to distance itself from Peter Slipper.”
The extent to which they are not allowed to do this, will determine how successful this attack has been.
by Tricot on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:13 am
in rest of world…mmm…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/23/egypt-cancels-israeli-gas-contract?newsfeed=true
by Laocoon on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:13 am
It’s not so much a matter of who the Coalition are listening to, but rather who is listening to them: dumb bogans who still ring up Ray Hadley regularly believing that all Quentin Bryce has to do is lose her temper with Gillard and then she can justifiably sack the government.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:14 am
Not a good look, Laocoon!
by BK on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:15 am
SkyNews has full Leveson coverage of the Murdochs’ appearances starting at 7 pm tonight.
by BK on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:17 am
BK
Has Ms Mirabella done or said something politically incorrect?
by Boerwar on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:17 am
Looks like Rudd missed his cahnce to be PM by about 6 weeks.
He could have drifted quietly to the backbench and challenged this week.
by bluegreen on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:17 am
What credibility? Any “credibility” they have is only perceived by voters who’ve been conned by their lies and what their msm pals have told them.
by janice2 on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:18 am
Boerwar
Welcome return of bluey, and not a moment too soon!
by victoria on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:19 am
This article is critical of Carr as FM
http://m.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/spluttering-carr-must-click-into-gear-and-give-us-a-ruddlike-performance-20120423-1xh94.html
by bluegreen on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:19 am
A very good defence of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation from attacks by the usual vested interest suspects.
http://theconversation.edu.au/the-clean-energy-finance-corporation-the-purpose-and-the-hypocrisy-of-industry-6625
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:20 am
Boerwar
http://www.theage.com.au/national/power-love-and-money-20110922-1knb7.html
by BK on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:21 am
For concerned about numbers game on House Floor
http://www.afr.com/p/national/threat_to_block_slipper_return_ZgpStRdkov6gTNaV1qHOFP
by guytaur on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:24 am
Just popped back to say thank you to all
Hope things g o well for gweneth today
by my say on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:24 am
Confessions,
And as I explained to you that was in defiance of his own party’s wishes. They put up Bruce Scott who had been 2nd Deputy since 2008. Anna Burke had been the deputy speaker to Jenkins in the Rudd government. Slipper had never been deputy or 2nd deputy to my knowledge, at best he may have been on the speaker’s panel.
I don’t know where you’re getting this idea that the Lib’s have endorsed him as Deputy Speaker for 4 years, but it just isn’t true.
by ratsak on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:25 am
my say
Agreed. Hope all goes well for Gweneth today. Strength to her.
by victoria on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:27 am
ratsak
I guess that is why Albo did not mention it when he mentioned Slipper used to be Parliamentary Secretary.
by guytaur on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:27 am
Gotta head off to the flatlands for a bit of coin.
Catch y’all later!
by BK on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:27 am
If Tony Abbott insists equally all clergies that have children abuse allegations against them to stand aside, then he will earn my respect
by The Finnigans on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:28 am
Boerwar
Question for bluey re Thomson making a motsa re defamation. If and when he is cleared of any wrongdoing, would he be able to sue Abbott and others for defamation immediately, and if so, does that mean Abbott should stand aside whilst this matter is dealt with by the courts?
by victoria on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:28 am
BK
Dont work too hard!
by victoria on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:29 am
v
I imagine that Mr Thompson could sue Mr Abbott any time he believes he has a legal basis for doing so. I imagine that this would lead Mr Abbott to stand aside for the sake of his being consistent.
by Boerwar on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:30 am
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2012/04/24/president-obama-remembers-gay-victims-of-the-holocaust/
by guytaur on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:32 am
Boerwar
I was thinking Mr Thomson could also sue for harrassment. There is enough video footage of Abbott outside of the comfort of parliament privilege, bleating on about Thomson being of ill repute, and that he should stand aside blah blah blah.
by victoria on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:32 am
BW, have you been giving Bluey Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc cabcharge vouchers?
by The Finnigans on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:33 am
BW
Only one flaw in your reasoning there. Abbott being consistent. Not going to happen.
by guytaur on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:33 am
vic
It’s going to be a tough one today!
Really!
by BK on Apr 24, 2012 at 9:33 am