Crikey



Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. Are there any links for those pressers?

    Only the “Links, rechts, links” of Mr Murdoch’s minions.

    by This little black duck on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:32 pm

  2. William,

    You auric one certitude and that’s what they remember you for.

    by Greensborough Growler on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:32 pm

  3. Also interesting to note that the PM talks about the repeated preselection of Slipper – the truth there is that the Liberal Party has been trying to get rid of him for years, that’s part of the reason why he defected.

    by Generic Person on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:32 pm

  4. http://australianpolitics.com/2012/04/23/statement-from-andrew-wilkie.html

    A (Portentous?) Statement From Andrew Wilkie
    Apr 23, 2012
    Andrew Wilkie, the independent member for Denison, has issue the following statement about his negotiations with the government over its National Gambling Reform Bill.
    Wilkie’s reference to “the uncertainty and changing circumstances in the Parliament” is intriguing.

    ..................

    Today’s statement should be read in conjunction with Wilkie’s earlier statement on March 22:

    by Leroy on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:32 pm

  5. ru

    The funny thing is that the Libs had Slipper for years and kept a lid on it and as soon as he’s backed by Labor it has all gone to sh!t.

    by Diogenes on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:32 pm

  6. BK – I’ll trry to catch Roxon on Sky. She is usually well worth the watching.

    Leroy – thanks. I haven’t had the problem yet but wondered why some others have.

    by BH on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:33 pm

  7. Oh dear lord, people still reminiscing about Ruddkip. COME ON.

    by Generic Person on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:33 pm

  8. bemused

    Given approval ratings if blind panic sets in expect to see Bob Brown Prime Minister :)

    by guytaur on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:33 pm

  9. ''A week or two before Mal Brough stacked the Fisher federal council of the LNP, Tony said to me he would support me whether I ran in Fisher or Fairfax,'' Mr Slipper told The Sunday Age. ''I don't want to accuse him of reinventing history, but that statement that he was trying to manage me out of the party is entirely contrary to what he told me in the weeks before Brough's takeover.''

    From The Sunday Age story.

    Obviously Slipper neglected to get it from Abbott in writing. It’s quite possible that both Loughnane’s and Slipper’s versions are correct. Abbott has a habit of saying opposite things to different audiences.

    I mentioned bleak references to Catch-22 in their attempts to nail Thomson. “We know that bastard’s as guilty as hell and we’ll put him away just as soon as we can find something to charge him with.”

    Abbott’s methods of politicking seem also to borrow from Catch-22. Put out one statement taking a particular view, while at the same time putting out another statement taking the opposite view.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:33 pm

  10. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Its-no-longer-about-the-majority-its-about-integrity/

    A good article Malcolm F is usually very balanced

    by mari on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:36 pm

  11. William 120 my understanding is that the only reason Slipper survived per-selection for 2010 was the deal done when the LNP was formed that all current sitting members were safe at least for that term. I doubt any federal leader wanted to get involved in the politics around the formation of the LNP because it was still somewhat fragile.

    Whatever the reasons it certainly seems to have been a mistake which has managed to involve all sides of politics.

    by davidwh on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:36 pm

  12. Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 3:33 pm | Permalink
    ''A week or two before Mal Brough stacked the Fisher federal council of the LNP, Tony said to me he would support me whether I ran in Fisher or Fairfax,'' Mr Slipper told The Sunday Age. ''I don't want to accuse him of reinventing history, but that statement that he was trying to manage me out of the party is entirely contrary to what he told me in the weeks before Brough's takeover.''

    I tweeted that story to Michelle G and Phil Coorey a few minutes ago

    by mari on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:37 pm

  13. BH,

    Peg – you funny sausage – the Greens could have opposed it. It was spoken of for a day or so before he was appointed.

    And yet, Peter Slipper’s appointment as speaker was on the same day as HJ’s resignation.
    1. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-24/harry-jenkins-resigning/3690850

    Mr Jenkins' dramatic and unexpected move came as the House reconvened at 9:00am today, four years to the day after the Rudd government came to power.

    2. Statement, Harry Jenkins MP,Speaker of the House of Representatives, 24 November 2011
    http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/73611433

    As a consequence, when I vacate the Chair at the end of this short statement I will visit the Governor-General to tender my resignation as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

    3. http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=0V5

    Speaker of the House of Representatives from 24.11.11.

    4. Given that Vexnews is held in such high regard by many on PB ;-) —Reported on 24 November 2011:

    The sudden resignation of Harry Jenkins as the Speaker of the House of Representatives has Canberra abuzz. VEXNEWS can confirm that Peter Slipper will become Speaker this afternoon and was indeed celebrating the possibility – subject to Jenkins’ call – last night with friends

    BH speculates:

    Plenty of time for Bob to have a word in Julia’s shellpink ear and say ‘no,

    Do you know for a fact that BB knew the day before about HJ’s resignation?

    Do you seriously believe that BB was informed prior to 24/11/2011 about Gillard and Labor’s machinations to install Slipper as speaker?

    Given the rapid pace of events over the day, do you really think that Gillard took time out to consult with BB to get his opinion as she really cared to know?

    Do you know for a fact BB was given access to JG to express his view about Slipper’s nomination?

    If he somehow managed to get access, how do you know he didn’t express reservations about such a choice?

    by Pegasus on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:38 pm

  14. Also interesting to note that the PM talks about the repeated preselection of Slipper – the truth there is that the Liberal Party has been trying to get rid of him for years, that’s part of the reason why he defected.

    GP – to whom did Slipper defect? I haven’t seen it noted in my Labor Party missives that Peter Slipper defected to the ALP. The Greens don’t seem to have him as a member. Are the Indies a Party? or is he in a Party of 1?

    by BH on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:38 pm

  15. Burgey
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm | Permalink
    There needs to be a Moderator imposed ban on all this Rudd-Gillard crap. Honestly, it’s as boring as it is stupid.

    I don’t care about freedom of speech in this regard, just ban anyone who cuts and pastes the same rehashed twaddle every single day. Boring as bat poo and achieves nothing. Why are people obsessed with recapitulating all this tosh day in and day out? It’s beyond me.

    I don’t care which “side” you’re on either. Can all just please move on? Is there nothing else worth talking about ffs?

    I agree with you Burgey, it does get tedious

    by mari on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:41 pm

  16. The funny thing is that the Libs had Slipper for years and kept a lid on it and as soon as he’s backed by Labor it has all gone to sh!t.

    Think: Liberal media

    (If you’ll excuse the tautology)

    by Cuppa on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:42 pm

  17. GP,

    They tried so hard to, that Slipper won pre selection 9 times.

    by Greensborough Growler on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:42 pm

  18. Peg – Bob still had time to oppose. The vote wasn’t taken immediately. Plenty of time for him to ring JG or to put forward some other name to show that he was opposed to Slipper.

    by BH on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:43 pm

  19. I wonder how Abbott is going to react to the Attorney General of the Nation calling him the [leader of a lynch mob]

    by guytaur on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:43 pm

  20. If we ban discussions about GvR can we also ban discussions about redundant issues like Work Choices? :)

    by davidwh on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:44 pm

  21. leader of a lynch mob

    Now it works. Strange bug.

    by guytaur on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:45 pm

  22. It’s right that the Libs weren’t trying too hard to get rid of Slipper or Abbott would have over ridden the preselection. Is it a case of we get Slipper before he gets us just as much as aiming for an election.

    by BH on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:46 pm

  23. To understand why Slipper has survived so long you have to have some understanding about the volatile nature of the QLD Coalition between the Nats and Libs. I have never been certain if the disliked each other more than they disliked Labor.

    by davidwh on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:47 pm

  24. test

    by guytaur on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:47 pm

  25. THE Baillieu government was rocked today by the departure of the premier's most senior adviser Michael Kapel.

    Senior government sources today confirmed the resignation and said former Howard adviser Tony Nutt would be the new premier’s chief of staff.

    Poor Big Ted, can’t take a trick. I wonder who is next in line?

    by ruawake on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:48 pm

  26. ru

    How long will Knut last? He has been mentioned in despatches regarding Slipper.

    by guytaur on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:49 pm

  27. davidwh

    Slipper was a Nat, then won the seat back as a Lib. Shame he won the seat as a Joh for Canberra candidate, Howard never forgave him and he rotted on the backbench.

    by ruawake on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:50 pm

  28. William 120 my understanding is that the only reason Slipper survived per-selection for 2010 was the deal done when the LNP was formed that all current sitting members were safe at least for that term.

    What if they were found to be axe murderers, or such? Obviously a party can’t guarantee a member preselection under all circumstances – it’s a question of where they draw the line. You’re right that Abbott didn’t want to “get involved in the politics around the formation of the LNP because it was still somewhat fragile” – just like the government doesn’t want to get involved in the accusations against Slipper because its position in parliament is somewhat fragile. Neither would seem a particularly lofty motive, if Slipper really is as bad as all that.

    by William Bowe on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:51 pm

  29. guytaur,

    Quotes have to be in paragraphs by themselves. You can’t embed them.

    by This little black duck on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:51 pm

  30. How long will Knut last? He has been mentioned in despatches regarding Slipper.

    He was the person who apparently told a Slipper staffer to forget about the 2003 video.

    by ruawake on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:52 pm

  31. BH

    Plenty of time for him to ring JG or to put forward some other name to show that he was opposed to Slipper.

    How do you know that he did not express his opposition privately to Gillard, assuming he got access to JG to suggest another nomination.

    What was the point of BB expressing any opposition publicly?

    Slipper’s appointment was a fait accompli as evidenced by the fact the coalition put forward one Labor MP after another, all of which were rejected by Gillard and co.

    As if, Labor were interested in another nomination ;-)

    by Pegasus on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:52 pm

  32. I wonder how Abbott is going to react to the Attorney General of the Nation calling him the leader of a lynch mob

    Well, Mr Pyne will be complaining about how dirty the government is playing. Don’t do a drinks game with “gutter.”

    by This little black duck on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:53 pm

  33. TLBD

    Ah. Thanks. :)

    by guytaur on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:54 pm

  34. If we ban discussions about GvR can we also ban discussions about redundant issues like Work Choices? :)

    Such spin!

    WorkChoices is not:

    redundant
    dead
    buried
    cremated

    It’s merely laying on a slab in the Chapel devoted to John Howard’s Unfinished Business, waiting to be reanimated and wheeled out again.

    Liberal backbencher John Alexander ‘has revealed coalition will bring back WorkChoices’
    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/national/liberal-backbencher-john-alexander-has-revealed-coalition-will-bring-back-work-choices/story-e6frg15u-1226115430045?sv=430d782e4f4c86c478bb025ae2951cda

    Tony Abbott flags workplace changes
    http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/tony-abbott-flags-workplace-changes/story-e6frfku9-1226262961663

    Abbott pushes job law changes
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-pushes-job-law-changes-20110829-1jiiq.html

    by Cuppa on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:54 pm

  35. ruawke

    Tony Nutt would be the new premier’s chief of staff

    Goodness,looking at the following Ted could have 3 chiefs of staff in a week .

    VICTORIAN Premier Ted Baillieu's chief of staff Tony Nutt must explain his knowledge of an incident involving Peter Slipper when the Howard government was in power, the state opposition says.............Mr Nutt allegedly told the woman to "forget all about it".

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/tont-nutt-called-on-to-explain-slipper-details/story-e6frf7jx-1226336192202

    by poroti on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:55 pm

  36. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/mystery-trips-add-to-speaker-peter-slippers-woes/story-e6freuzr-1226335687621

    Wow Oakshott might have found his integrity button…. that 30 minute speech about people talking too long, I think

    by dovif on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:58 pm

  37. Mr Oakeshott said this afternoon he was “frustrated”, “despondent” and “pretty angry” at the latest turn of events, saying if allegations made against Mr Slipper were proven true, it would turn out to be “the darkest days of this 43rd parliament”.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/mystery-trips-add-to-speaker-peter-slippers-woes/story-e6freuzr-1226335687621

    by guytaur on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:58 pm

  38. dovif

    Snap!

    by guytaur on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:59 pm

  39. The LNP did manage to disendorse the Member for Ryan despite the grandfather clause prior to the 2010 election; so if they had have wanted to could have over ridden Slipper’s endorsement for Fisher.

    by hugh moran on Apr 23, 2012 at 3:59 pm

  40. Pegasus,

    Given that you haven’t commented on my opinion….What is your spin on Gillard’s comment? Why did she make it and to whom was she addressing it?

    Let’s assume you are right and the Prime Minister was dog-whistling. How, then, do you explain the Greens continued support for a dog-whistling Prime Minister?

    The perennial ad hominem and strawman arguments.

    There’s nothing ad hominem about it at all. The general theme is one of elevated morality. If you are prepared to say that the Greens have no better a moral fibre than the majors, I will happily take it back.

    Slipper was nominated unopposed.

    Exactly. Which brings the Greens firmly into the frame, having said nothing about it themselves.

    by drake on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:00 pm

  41. I wouldn’t invite Mr Slipper in for a cuppa. If I did, he would not lend him any of the family silver. Nor would I go for a ride with him in his car or his Comcar or his Limo or whatever. I would not hold him up as a role model for my children.

    I cannot nominate a single thing he has done that is at all worthwhile as a member of serial Howard/Costello governments.

    But, if I had to choose a person who has been a good Speaker and who will probably get back to being a good Speaker, I would choose Mr Slipper.

    by Boerwar on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:00 pm

  42. Boerwar

    i agree. He has been an excellent speaker.

    by victoria on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:02 pm

  43. An ad straw hominem argument?

    Nice.

    by Boerwar on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:02 pm

  44. Joe2

    Pegasus, your expressed conclusions seemed completely disconnected from what your leaders were saying in the quotes you gave.

    I was not drawing any conclusions. I was expressing an opinion on how many people might perceive the Slipper affair; how the Greens are not tainted by it unlike the major parties who are and have been intimately involved with Slipper.

    They actually made a lot of sense on the Slipper issue and were not trying to make silly political point which you seemed to be making on their behalf.

    The Greens talking sense – glad you picked up on the other point of my post :-)

    Perceptions are a major factor in how political parties are viewed by voters. Issues that play into integrity, trust and honesty are very important to many people.

    All I did was express an opinion that you did not like and you responded with ad hominems.

    by Pegasus on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:03 pm

  45. I’m not sure of this was posted earler, but here are the court documents of Ashby suing the Commonwealth and anor

    http://media.apnonline.com.au/69.2/img/media/pdf/slippercourt.pdf

    usually good to read the soource without the media “value add”

    by sprocket_ on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:03 pm

  46. JacktheInsider Comments from a "disgusted" Bronwyn Bishop re Slipper here: bit.ly/I3lqqm Bronny needs a reminder she went to his wedding 6 years ago
    13 minutes ago

    by victoria on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:03 pm

  47. Malcolm Turnbull needs to cross the floor and become the leader of the Labor Party. That way everybody wins. The conservatives get rid of him and his base gets to keep him.

    by Daryl… on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:04 pm

  48. slipper is an anagram of ripples, not of tsunami.

    by This little black duck on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:04 pm

  49. Or is that an ad straminum hominem argument?

    by Boerwar on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:04 pm

  50. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/new-details-emerge-on-harassment-claims-as-parties-attack-each-other-over-slipper-rumours/story-fndckad0-1226336296917

    by victoria on Apr 23, 2012 at 4:04 pm

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