Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).
Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:
• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.
• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.
• Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
An hors-d’œuvre before the Rupert show – a timeline of the attempted takeover of BSkyB by News Corp:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/24/leveson-inquiry-jeremy-hunt
by Scarpat on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:01 pm
Peter Costello being himself – sneering.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-and-co-blame-the-spin-when-substance-is-the-problem-20120424-1xj8p.html?rand=1335274004769
by lizzie on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:01 pm
Perhaps those ‘senior Coalition colleagues’ urging Abbott to back off have suddenly remembered the travel expenses Tone rorted while promoting his book. There are already plenty of questions being asked about that. Tone’s five thousand dollar plus expenses make a few hundred dollars worth of car hire look pretty insignificant.
Gelnn Milne set it all out here, ages ago
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/35544.html
by leone on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Anything Rupe says or implies in this regard just reinforces the case against him.
by Dee on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:02 pm
A good response to the Lovelock stories going around
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/23/469749/james-lovelock-finally-walks-back-his-absurd-doomism-but-he-still-doesnt-follow-climate-science/
by Leroy on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:03 pm
60 Minutes until Murdoch major is on and out come the Slipper distraction posts.
Strange. We really have nothing new other than tweets victoria has been relaying for us.
Tweets which how for any who doubted Mr Abbott must be wondering what is coming as the rest of us.
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:03 pm
No they are wrong on this as with most other things. If you inherit money it should be treated as income, or it is paid into superannuation at a nominal tax rate.
by ruawake on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Confessions @ 3196
That seems to be his latest so it would be in the last couple of days. I think I saw it yesterday.
by bemused on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Victoria,
You may be right – Abbott will probably now go to ground for a while on this. Mad if he didn’t. But I still think Gillard comes off damaged. We’ll probably know within a few weeks.
by al palster on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:04 pm
deblonay – thanks for the heads up on the book about Murdoch.
Good remembrance speeches by the PM and GG today. It’s good to be reminded just how young the Anzacs were and what they sacrificed for an initially stupid reason.
confessions – I find it sad to read bemused continuous comments on the same theme so I don’t any longer. I’d rather old men be upbeat and looking forward, rather than back. Old women too for that matter, says one.
by BH on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:05 pm
I know one should not, but why not, my goodness julia looked ,beautifully dressed for the occassion, that colour suits her.
And also so, so prime ministerial.-
Than goodness abbott was not there-
by my say on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Cate Fearhman vs Joe Hildebrand as they discuss j murdoch testimony
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Oops. The Drum 24
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:06 pm
[Peter Costello being himself – sneering.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-and-co-blame-the-spin-when-substance-is-the-problem-20120424-1xj8p.html?rand=1335274004769
Peter Costello writing about substance being the problem. Let me repeat that because I don’t believe it – Peter Costello writing about substance being the problem.
by Scarpat on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:06 pm
ruawake @ 3206
I see nothing wrong with allowing a reasonable amount to be untaxed.
by bemused on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:08 pm
The old Milne piece on Battle-lines was fascinating – someone here has a good memory. Remind the ABC news desk.
by al palster on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Cool, real cool. Slow Jam The News with POTUS Barack Obama: Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAFQIciWsF4
by The Finnigans on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Joe Hildebrand from news limited DT making phone hacking jokes.
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:09 pm
al palster
Put it this way, it is not Labor who is smearing Slipper. The offered him a role which is he is very good atl The Libs have come out swinging and saying that even though all other MPs can continue to serve in their roles when civil proceedings are pending against them, it should not apply in Slipper’s case. Trial by the court of the coalition, msm and public opinion. How is Slipper going to respond to all this?
That is the 64,000 question. What is Slipper prepared to do? Go away quietly? Stare them down? Or go down and take as many with him. The Libs dont know and it is a very big gamble.
by victoria on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:10 pm
leone – I noticed that Swannie said deliberately that the mudslingers need to be careful that they are whiter than snow and Albo hinted at the same thing. Game on, I wonder?
lizzie – what would Costello know about substance. He knows plenty about sneering but substance is not one of his strong points.
by BH on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Bemused
Yes, but the issue is whether in the future younger generations will be able to accumulate the same level of assets as the baby boomers have been able to do.
Forty per cent of workers are in insecure employment.. Will they be able to accumulate the same level of savings in superannuation and other assets?
Due to lack of housing affordability, more young people are locked out of the housing market and might have to rent for their entire lives.. Back when baby boomers were young, houses cost three times the median wage, now it is anything up to nine times.
(See previous post @ http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/05/morgan-face-to-face-57-5-42-5-to-coalition/comment-page-13/#comment-1211074 )
by Pegasus on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Same with a lazy bit of capital gains?
by ruawake on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Mr Jay and Joe Hildebrand lookalikes reckons Imre Solinsky
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Cate Fearhman putting boot into Daily Telegraph.
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Cuppa,
Blimey! You’re being somewhat kind to their ABC there Cuppa!
Undeservedly, I would suggest! 50%. Come on
by scorpio on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:16 pm
ABC Drum very very anti News tonight.
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Horsey, very simple for the young people – SAVE. SAVE and SAVE.
Not splashing on credit cards, mobile phones, gadgets, holidays, clothes, cars, grogs etc
by The Finnigans on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Aguirre @ 3155,
Precisely. Abbott is a bubble that is gonna burst. He knows it, his party knows it, his urgers and enablers in the media and business know it. That’s why the desperation.
They need to get an election while the polls are up before he pops. They fear that should he pop between now and the election that the Liberals will be stuffed and it’ll be 2016 before they get it by which time NBN, Carbon Pricing, Mining Taxation, School Funding, Means Testing of various benefits and goodness knows what else that gives the reactionaries nightmares will all be locked in and unable to be reversed.
Personally I think they’d be better off if they bone him around Christmas this year, as a replacement will likely get a long enough honeymoon to win, but I think (most of) the Libs see Abbott as their only realistic chance. With that in mind I’m not thinking the beat ups and bootstraps will end soon. The unhinging has several more levels of shrill to sink to yet.
by ratsak on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:19 pm
They should remember that he blew the seminary gig because he couldn’t cop the discipline. And who are these “senior colleagues” doing the leaking, anyway?
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/13516069/abbott-urged-to-ease-off-on-slipper/
by joe2 on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:19 pm
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-and-co-blame-the-spin-when-substance-is-the-problem-20120424-1xj8p.html?rand=1335274004769
Just one more reason why I don’t buy the Age any more. Haven’t missed it one bit.
by Darn on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:20 pm
News limited guy talking up Kevin Rudd.
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:22 pm
Fil R
Please don’t be dispirited I for one enjoy your posts and and I am sure I am not alone.
by MTBW on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Joe Hildebrand is your classic Murdoch nihilist. A big grin on his face, he doesn’t give a stuff about anything.
Not healthy looking, either.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:29 pm
BB
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Hildebrand is a worthless Sydney boofhead.
by BK on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:30 pm
30 minutes to get organised. R. Murdoch.
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:31 pm
3206
I agree that the argument for inheritance to be taxed as income is strong. The Greens policy, while the best policy of a significant party in Australia, is rather weak.
by Tom the first and best on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:31 pm
BK,
Your comments on Hildebrand are pretty generous.
by Space Kidette on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:33 pm
BK
He makes Fatty Vautin look like he knows what he is doing.
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Now which is the most derogatory epithet of the three – worthless, Sydney, or boofhead?
by Scarpat on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Seems that we all like Hildebrand then.
by BK on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:34 pm
BB
I really enjoyed Cate Fearman’s comments about the DT
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Sreve Lewis
Chris Uhlman
Dennis Shanahan
Piers Ackerman
Andrew Bolt
Alan Jones
Ray Hadlee Julia Gillard
Steve Price
Janet Albrechson
Nikki Savva
John Laws
Greg Sheridan
Michael Stutchbury
and others
Who would you want to be beside you when the crunch comes?
by Ian on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:38 pm
ian,
Ricky Ponting.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Julia Gillard
by ruawake on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Ian Thorpe
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:40 pm
I would have a quess that the baby bombers chikdren at 65!
Will be in the same position
This would of happened in most generations, except for wars, and depressions.
Our generation inherited rather small amounts ordinary people that is, but now withsuper
And home ownership and less chikcren to i herit i would say unless there is war and depression i woule spot on with this.
But not every one is in the baby boomber poition, its a no sence tosay so. Public housing tennnts
Renters unemployed disabities,
But also if there is any jealousy with this so be it worked for our achievrments no crefit card debt, i remember we lay byed our bed and slept on the floor till we paid it off, can u imagine that now.
by my say on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:41 pm
ROFL
Sydney of cause.
by fredn on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:41 pm
&others.
Anyone with a name like “Sreve” has got to be untrustworthy. Almost as bad as “Siimon”
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Mr B Smith VC
by guytaur on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Every corporation, under siege, needs a Court jester and he is it.
by joe2 on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:42 pm