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This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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5940 comments

5,940 thoughts on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

  1. zoidlord

    @bluegreen/5887

    I thought Face to Face wasn’t to be trusted ?

    And it’s been wrong on the last set of polls (if my thought’s haven’t betrayed me).

  2. davidwh

    Nice verballing Kezza but I was never in any doubt that the problems with QLD Labor went much deeper than just Bligh and never considered for even the slightest moment in time to vote other than LNP in QLD.

  3. bluegreen

    Key point to note.

    The Labor 2pp has collapsed by 5% on Margan poll since Gillard beat Rudd in the party room vote.

  4. Danny Lewis

    [Now Speers is on about leadership challenges. Spoke to a “very senior Labor figure who did NOT back Kevin Rudd last time” who thought her time was short unless a big change in direction occurred.]

    How does Speers know how that person voted?

    I know plenty of dyed-in-the-wool Liberal voters who pop up on comments threads purporting to have voted Labor all their lives but because “Juliar” is a liar, they are never going to vote Labor ever again. Seems to add weight, does it not?

    The problem is it’s really easy to claim to have thought, said or done something if there are no witnesses to back you up. Doubly so if you happen to be an anonymous source: who is going to contradict them?

  5. This little black duck

    “barista and soliciter”.

  6. kezza2

    bluegreen
    [Combet, perhaps. Although often not that much better but at least he has a strong public record.]
    But only if he’s played by the yummy actor in Bastard Boys 😉

  7. bluegreen

    [zoidlord
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 2:33 pm | Permalink
    @bluegreen/5887

    I thought Face to Face wasn’t to be trusted ?

    And it’s been wrong on the last set of polls (if my thought’s haven’t betrayed me).]

    Useful as a tracking poll but not to pick true mean. Historically has favored ALP by around 4% as compared to phone poll.

  8. Cuppa

    [It’s quite a regular thing with the Coalition, though, isn’t it?
    Throw up an accusation that implies dishonesty.
    And when you’re called on it,
    you throw up your hands, claim innocence and do a “look over there”]

    The dishonest making accusations of dishonesty?

    Right-Wing Projection.

  9. bemused

    bluegreen @ 5892

    Key point to note.

    The Labor 2pp has collapsed by 5% on Margan poll since Gillard beat Rudd in the party room vote.

    Shhhh … we are not supposed to notice.

  10. Danny Lewis

    [The Labor 2pp has collapsed by 5% on Margan poll since Gillard beat Rudd in the party room vote.]

    Funny that everyone has always pooh-poohed Morgan as being pro-Labor/pro-Liberal/all over the place depending on what their political stripe is.

    Give us a figure over ALL polls and we’ll talk.

  11. OzPol Tragic

    [I don’t see how ratsacks post clears up how slippers issue of alleged cabcharge fraud can be done and dusted in a week and thomsons case of alleged credit card fraud can be still hidden away for over three year]

    O dear, rummel. You are having a bad day. It really is quite simple.

    1. CabCharge: Since the Mal Colston travel-expenses rorting affair, travel expenses & other entitlements have been well-regulated, well-overseen (“nit picking” is more like it), with not a single but 3 sets of paper trails: parliamentary office; travel-provider (taxi, lino, Comcar, other), and MP/ Senator’s receipt, The triple paper trail allows for cross checking/ referencing all three in a situation like Slipper’s.

    2. HSU control of credit cards, accounting procedures and accountability protocols seem to have been – to put it mildly – an unutterably, hopelessly-chaotic shambles (& that’s probably “on a good day”). But then, so was control of credit cards in many an organisation where they were used, not but a single person, but by any number of employees (ie probably kept in the boss’s secretary’s desk’s top drawer; prob also with a hopefully placed exercise book – biro attached by string or pink tape – so borrowers could sign it out & back in again). That seemed to be quite normal practice.

    NOTE: that HSU has been under investigation by the union, FWA, NSW Police-twice, Vic police etc. Unless the FWA report has untangled the mess, no one has yet straightened out the mess.

    BTW: the situation, since Craig Thomson’s Election in 2007 and action by Kathy Jackson against him, has deteriorated, with votes of No Confidence in Kathy Jackson; claims of much bigger rorting, cash-distribution by executive order etc by Cathy Jackson, Michael Williamson etc

    Clear yet?

  12. The Finnigans

    [Fiinigans; that’s “Bwana” for “White Boss Man”.]

    That’s the white man term, in Indo it’s buana

  13. middle man

    the sh*t is sticking as usual… FMD.

  14. Meguire Bob

    danny lewis @ 5900

    The coalition supporters arent really in a real debate of facts

    they know under the abbott leadership, the coalition will unlikely win the next election

    and they are here venting their frustrations 🙂

  15. The Finnigans

    [Rummel is peculiar.]

    GG, so is Diog

  16. davidwh

    You have to take Morgan with a grain of salt because their polls regularly seem to run counter to the other polls although they have been much closer recently both in terms of trend and results.

  17. rummel

    [5897
    Cuppa
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink
    It’s quite a regular thing with the Coalition, though, isn’t it?
    Throw up an accusation that implies dishonesty.
    And when you’re called on it,
    you throw up your hands, claim innocence and do a “look over there”

    The dishonest making accusations of dishonesty?

    Right-Wing Projection.]

    Cuppa

    I am happy about taking such flack from team labor. Though kezza might be a tad upset being called dishonest and a right-wing projectionist by a fellow left wing church goer 🙂

  18. Schnappi

    Bwana for abbott should be guano,

  19. leone

    kezza2
    I took rummel’s Green voting remark to be a comment on my honesty too, so thanks for the defence.

  20. Space Kidette

    [Peter ‏ @OMarian

    Double dissolution on people smugglers, on CTax: Sounds like Abbott will be doing more dissolving than an Aspirin http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/abbott-compares-indonesian-people-smugglers-to-australians-who-smuggle-drugs-into-bali/story-fn9hm1gu-1226340792265 ]

  21. Meguire Bob

    Davidwh

    The only way opinion polls can be taken seriously this far out

    by asking questions like

    carbon pricing vs direct action

    etc

  22. rummel

    [OzPol Tragic]

    I happy you have brought up colston. Was not he the labor man that Labor said would hound to his death for fleeing to the libs?

  23. victoria

    Hits the nail on the head

    [gordongraham when Ray Hadley’s opinion is given equal weighting to the Government Leader of the House by the media … we have a big problem
    about 2 hours ago]

  24. kezza2

    davidwh
    Didn’t realise I’d completely and utterly fkd you over in an argument!

    I stated facts. Something the Coalition has still to come to grips with.

    1. You were much nicer when you were pretending that maybe you’d vote Labor if only
    Qld would get rid of Bligh.

    2. When you were doing that, when you were arguing your case, you were logical.

    3. Since the Qld election, and Bligh was defeated, you seem to have lost your ability to be logical.

    4. You don’t accept the Slipper statement and cab vouchers as evidence to knock Ashby”s claims on the head when such evidence, o9n the face of it, certainly does.

    5. You claim you want to wait until the outcome of an AFP investigation. Why?

    Let me guess. You WANT the allegations to be true.

    You are not using logic.

    Therefore, hence, and notwithstanding, I am NOT verballing you.

  25. Son of foro

    Morgan poll: dem bad guano guano.

  26. ratsak

    I don’t doubt there has been a swing back to the Coalition in the past few weeks. Big deal. There will be a correction back to Labor over the next few months too. Neither change will mean much.

    It will start to get meaningful about March next year. Until then the polls are not much more than a bogey man to try and scare enough in the Labor caucus to do something rash.

    Steady as she goes Julia.

  27. bluegreen

    What happened to Frank, Ron and Gusface?

  28. rummel

    [leone
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 2:43 pm | Permalink
    kezza2
    I took rummel’s Green voting remark to be a comment on my honesty too, so thanks for the defence.]

    Leone

    If you did take offence regarding that comment, I do sincerely appoligise.

  29. Diogenes

    OPT

    Now the HSU has appointed an Ombudsman to investigate charges against Williamson and Jackson.

  30. davidwh

    Maguire Bob PB would be a much more boring place without regular polls to talk about. Having said that Labor certainly took the polls seriously in June 2010.

  31. victoria

    bg

    frank was banned ages ago. Gus is taking a break and someone else spoke to Ron recently. Not sure what is happening with him

  32. Diogenes

    Bg

    Ron is masterminding Hillary’s campaign for POTUS 2012.

  33. bluegreen

    Hey did the ALP just release an Aged-care policy to wide acclaim last week?

    Why aren’t they selling it?

  34. leone

    Poor David Speers. He just had to keep this ‘huge Labor scandal, another disaster for the government’ thing going. After all, his glee when the ‘scandal’ was announced on Saturday was all too evident. He didn’t even try to put on his serious face, he had a grin from ear to ear. If it all turns out to be a re-run of Utegate he’s going to need a front-end loader to get that egg off his face. He has to keep using the word ‘sleaze’ as often as possible. He has to keep trying desperately to make something stick. So far he’s not haiving much luck.

  35. JohD

    [ Fiinigans; that’s “Bwana” for “White Boss Man”.

    That’s the white man term, in Indo it’s buana]

    ‘Bwana’ is African; pretty much across the board. Amazing how similar the terms are – must have had the same problem.

  36. leone

    rummel

    accepted with thanks.

  37. Schnappi

    Meguire Bob@5911,
    Comments by people in the drum even ,do not understand the direct action plan is paid by taxpayers,and gets no media coverage that I have found,only what a toxic tax the carbon price is,and insinuating it is paid by people,other than by cost of living increases.We get the dishonest media that the majority allow.

  38. scorpio

    Diogenes,

    Ron’s probably holidaying over on Gilligan’s Island! 😉

  39. zoidlord

    @William/5921

    Why new thread? No other polls out this time?

  40. kezza2

    leone

    [I took rummel’s Green voting remark to be a comment on my honesty too, so thanks for the defence.]

    you’re very welcome

    I really enjoy your well argued, well-thought out posts.
    doesn’t mean I always agree with you (and that’s rare anyway) but I could not let such a gratuitous, snide remark pass without correcting the record.

    Sorrry, but don’t know NSW geography very well
    you’re on the MNC, aren’t you?

    Is that Lyne or New England territory?

  41. davidwh

    Kezza I have never said anything other than to support QLD LNP and certainly never even suggested that I would vote Labor if they replaced Bligh. You are either grossly mistaken or being deliberately mischevious to suggest I did at any time. Regarding the rest of your post I think you have completely misunderstood my earlier posts on the Slipper vouchers particularly that part where I said they likely have settled the criminal matter.

  42. leone

    Insiders on Sunday will have Bazza interviewing Andrew Wilkie and Rob Oakeshott. I hope Wilkie doesn’t put on that hurt, pouty look he favours, it makes him resemble Gerard Henderson.

  43. leone

    rummel
    Lyne. New England is the other side of the mountains.

  44. zoidlord

    @bluegreen/5924

    We are not in election – thats why.

  45. OzPol Tragic

    [Was not he the labor man that Labor said would hound to his death for fleeing to the libs?]

    You mean: Was he the Senator Labor refused to endorse as Deputy President of the Senate (ie the Senate version of Slipper’s initial 2010 HoR Deputy Speaker); so Howard, hoping he’d defect, backed him for the position; so he defected? IOW, was it the earlier Howard example in the Senate of the Slipper appointment in the Reps?

    YES!

    So, given Howard created the template, how come:

    (a) Libs were so dumb they treated Slipper to worse treatment than Labor handed out to Colston; but never did figure, as they tried to bulldoze him out of his Reps seat, Slipper might follow Colston’s lead?

    (b) Libs have carried on, and are still carrying on about it the way they did? They made the template, how come they’re complaining like whining kiddies when the other side uses it?

  46. Bushfire Bill

    Speers insists on calling these “Emergency Dockets”. They are not. They are ordinary dockets.

    Ashby does not allege any improper travel. In fact he doesn’t mention whether there was one trip or three trips. He only alleges the handing over of three signed, but otherwise unmarked dockets.

  47. Super

    5878
    victoria
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Permalink
    It was funny when Speers was suggesting that Slipper’s choice of travel was more expensive, and Albo said that comcar costs 80.00 for a trip down the road.
    The msm dont want to let this go. Albo put out the warning re Godwin Gretch. Will they take heed?

    Vic,what about Howard’s daily trips via RAAF VIP jet between Kirribilli and Canberra?
    Oh the waste, the waste ….

  48. Super

    5878
    victoria
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Permalink
    It was funny when Speers was suggesting that Slipper’s choice of travel was more expensive, and Albo said that comcar costs 80.00 for a trip down the road.
    The msm dont want to let this go. Albo put out the warning re Godwin Gretch. Will they take heed?

    Vic,what about Howard’s daily trips via RAAF VIP jet between Kirribilli and Canberra?
    Oh the waste, the waste ….

  49. Phil Vee

    Hey Ratsars @ 5811 on this thread was asking about the Ross Greenwood email.

    I put a partial answer up on the Morgan Face to Face Thread @ 653