|Booths counted||18 out of 18|
|Votes counted||57.6% of enrolled voters|
Late Saturday. I’ve finally added the last two Labor two-party figures, from their strong booths of West End and St Francis, and they have added 1% to the Labor result and brought my figures into line with Antony Green’s. There has also been a second batch of 646 pre-poll votes added, which had the Greens about 4% higher and the LNP about 4% lower than the first batch. My guess is that the first batch came from the Woolloongabba office and the second from the Brisbane CBD office. Unlike the polling booth results, these haven’t come yet with two-party results, but when they do they should cut about 100 from Labor’s 822 vote lead. Presumably that’s it for pre-polls, which should leave about 2000 postals plus a couple of dozen odds and sods, which will need to split implausibly heavily to the LNP (approaching 70-30) to trouble Labor’s lead.
8.34pm. Perhaps I spoke too soon just now – a few more two-party results have dragged Labor’s lead back below 1%.
8.32pm. The last two primary vote results are in. The few remaining two-party results (four booths) are unlikely to make much of a change to the current projection, and I won’t be adding them until later. Nobody would be conceding defeat this evening, but I certainly am expecting Labor to hang on. Before I go, another pointer to an interesting aspect of the rate of exhausted preferences, which has gone from 36.7% to over 50%.
8.01pm. West End and Stones Corner have reported: the former gave Labor a fillip, but the latter took some of it back again.
7.52pm. Still to report: West End, far the electorate’s biggest booth at 2759 at the election; another West End booth, St Francis, 1704 votes; and smaller Brisbane and Stones Corner, 376 and 771 respectively.
7.50pm. Two-party results coming in at a fairly rapid clip, nudging the Labor lead down slightly. Four booths remaining to report primary votes, each one very important.
7.44pm. Big Kangaroo Point booth’s preferences added. Not much regional variation to speak of in the swing.
7.42pm. Three more booths in. I was a bit worried by the discrepancy between my result and Antony’s, but his projection seems to be coming into line with mine.
7.38pm. Another south-eastern booth, Thompson Estate, and it’s another 6% drop in the primary vote for Labor. I see Antony Green’s projecting a worse result for Labor than me.
7.31pm. St Ita’s goes against my hypothesis that West End might go easier on Labor, giving the same 4% swing as the rest of the electorate.
7.28pm. Greenslopes yet another booth from the south-east. West End very unrepresented in the count so far.
7.26pm. Greenslopes booth steadies Labor a little.
7.25pm. Coorparoo has reported its preference count, and a relatively good Labor split there means I’ve got them very slightly back in front.
7.16pm. Big hike in exhausted preferences damaging Labor, such that an extra booth’s 2PP numbers puts my projection back at exactly 50-50. Labor also seems to have shed 6% on the primary vote with the LNP more or less steady.
7.14pm. Booths reporting so far are from the “old Labor” south-eastern part of the electorate. As on election night, I expect the more inner city booths will be better for Labor, improving their position as the evening progresses. Just supposition at this stage though.
7.11pm. Annerley Junction, Kangaroo Point and Dutton Park now added. Picture now is of a swing to Labor, but not quite enough for them to lose, with two quirky results in PA (very good for Labor) and Coorparoo (very good for LNP). Two booths now in on 2PP.
7.09pm. Bad results for Labor from Coorparoo now has me projecting the LNP in front. Annerley not as bad for them: 3.2% swing rather than 13.7%.
7.01pm. I’m leaving it out of my calculation for now because there are too few votes, but the PA booth’s two-party count suggests a big increase in exhausted preferences: from 37% to nearly 50%.
6.54pm. Second booth reports (Mater Hospital), and it cancels out the other booth’s swing by going 3.3% the other way.
6.50pm. Antony Green calculates a 7% swing in PA booth, which is higher than mine. Still splitting hairs over not very much at this stage though.
6.47pm. 689 pre-polls added, and compared with the election pre-poll total they show a big swing to the LNP – but this mean that they may come from an LNP-friendly polling location. I am only using booth results to project primary vote swings and the 2PP, to the current numbers are still based purely on the PA booth.
6.35pm. Tiny P.A. booth (156 votes) swings 4% to Labor. Labor steady, Greens up a bit, LNP well down.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the South Brisbane by-election count. I might also throw in the odd comment about the Brisbane council as well, and I encourage discussion of both events in comments. As results come in, as they should start to do a bit before 7pm, the table above will display the raw numbers and percentages of votes counted; primary vote swings obtained by comparing the booths which have reported with the same booths at the election; and a two-party result and swing likewise obtained by booth-matching. Until the first two-party preferred results are reported (and they generally lag about half an hour behind the primary votes), the preference distribution from the election will be applied: 49% to Labor, 14% to the LNP and 37% exhausted. When such results become available, the preference split will be calculated and projected across the primary vote results of all booths where two-party results have yet to be reported.