Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.
UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
confessions
Since the civil proceedings were lodged 10 days ago, the msm and coalition have been in a frenzy. It is extremely difficult for the govt to counter this assault, and believe me it is a full scale assault. Does the govt have the fortitude to combat it. I knew it would be bad leading up to the new financial year, but this is beyond the pale
by victoria on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:30 am
victoria, remembering how Howard gave up on his own ministerial code of conduct because he was losing too many ministers how is what has happened recently in Australia the least bit ‘slimy’ or ‘smelly’?
by joe2 on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:30 am
Another homeless story on AM.
I must say another Rudd achievement raising homelessness up the agenda of political discussion.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:30 am
Who said that? Whitlam never had any territory that has the BISONs running wild & free.
What should we do? Keep them farqing BISONs run wild & free
by The Finnigans on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:31 am
joe2
The ‘slimy” ‘smelly’ bit is that Murdoch may have to pay some tax.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:31 am
Hey – Malcaolm Farr has been reading and plagiarising my posts to PB. I’ll sue!
And the centre-left mainstream refers to me, and MILLIONS of others!
by Mick77 on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:32 am
It’s as simple as this: if Oakeshotte and Windsor express no confidence in the government, most of the last 18 months for them has been for nothing.
All the work they have done will be flushed down the toilet as will any chance they have of a continuing career (slim though that may be).
This is why they won’t hang the government.
Ditto for the Greens.
But Gillard and the government have to fight.
No more leaflet drops. This is war. High explosive bombs only from now on. Sad about civilian casualties, but we want to win, not lose honourably.
The government has the key: Murdoch’s organized crime operation. Fairfax will join in, no worries. Given a chance to express it, they hate News as much as the government. A Royal Commission would be a good idea. If not that, then a Senate Inquiry. The Greens will participate with gusto.
Next: the ABC. Go through them with a dose of salts. Labor has the Board on side now. Start the sackings. First-up, that idiot Mark Scott and his mates at the IPA. Buy out their contracts, piss them off. Then, whoever takes over can go through the lower ranks and take the crow-bar to a few of the time servers, starting with the smarmy Jones and the useless, rude and biased Uhlmann.
Then: the Public Service. Get out the machetes and start hacking. Lay waste to the place. Any Liberal plants left should be kissed with the Zero Weeding Wand.
I can understand that Gillard thinks sweet reason will win through, but it won’t. Her opponents only see this as weakness. They don’t use reason. They use force. It’s time to return the favour.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:32 am
The finnigans
That is what make this so ridiculous. Our bisons are very good indeed and Murdoch and his cronies are subject to an Inquiry right now, and yet our govt is on the bloody ropes!
by victoria on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:32 am
Scanappii
I noticed a couple of not very nice remarks to you last night.
Scroll by these. I have for years, well 2 as thats my ti me here,
I did a bit if unsrolling at one stage, and redu ed to tears, and suffered some days
Of depression, so now its just the positive people i engage with,
At 75 turning up at a blogg, salute you.
by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:32 am
Finnigans
Its more from the panic merchants of the right. We are not into Whitlam territory until Abbott can get supply blocked. Greens will not do it.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:33 am
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-right-move-8230-but-it-wont-rebuild-trust-20120429-1xt3h.html
In other words, Gillard moved against the suspect MPs not on any principle but as a matter of political management. She did the right thing for the wrong reason.
This only reminds the electorate of one of her central flaws. She will take difficult decisions when she is forced to by political circumstance, not because she is carried by any force of conviction.
She tried to edge away from a carbon price by inventing a “people’s assembly”. She was forced to return to carbon pricing by the Greens and independents as a condition of holding power.
She pledged to introduce mandatory precommitment on poker machines as a condition of holding the support of the independent MP Andrew Wilkie, then dumped the deal when she no longer needed his vote.
It’s because of this transparent insincerity that the electorate gives her no credit even when she does do the right thing.
Gillard’s government is in dire condition because the Prime Minister fundamentally lacks the trust of the Australian people. This act of political ”tricksmanship” will help her with short-term political management but do absolutely nothing to build trust. Quite the contrary.
Julia Gillard unwittingly forces the Labor caucus to consider, once again, its most uncomfortable dilemma – likely destruction at the polls, or a gamble on Kevin Rudd as leader.
by dovif on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:33 am
victoria:
Agreed. The vested interests are stepping up their campaign it would seem.
by confessions on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:35 am
Zoomster,
I know one or two and they don’t need to be told how to access their compensation. The reason they give me is “I’m not going to give Centrelink my details – I’d rather pay it myself”. In other words, I’d rather whinge and blame the government !!
by janice2 on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:37 am
Morning All
Looks like the Libs will be running hard on the lines about Howard not accepting Colston’s vote – according to Brandis by pairing him with a Liberal. Sounds to me like a bit of rewriting of history as was revealed yesterday – might be good if some with more time (damn work) get some details though, they will be needed the next few days I’d suggest.
Any move to change the carbon tax would be dumb so I hope those stories are wrong – it can be tweaked later if it’s not working as planned. Give it a go as is first
I’m hoping for a cracker of a budget that has a real whack at middle / upper class welfare and business tax dodges especially now that Murdoch has given the government the go ahead via his tweet – surely his papers will support a budget that does what he is calling for
And finally – Grattan usual anti Gillard lines this morning BUT did give credit re policy – that’s the key at the moment KEEP DELIVERING
by womble on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:37 am
dovif
Falling for the change the leader call from the regime change calls of their Master Mr Murdoch. Time to think.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:37 am
Abbott is even further alienating Windsor and Oakeshott.
Emerson now on ABC24.
by BK on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:37 am
A Senate inquiry would be a great start. Let’s expose the links and influence the Murdoch press here has over the Liberal and National parties.
by confessions on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:39 am
Linda Motram giving Pyne a hard time on 702.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:39 am
This really is poor judgement by Abbott, and which has kept the coalition out of office.
Yet the insular msm can’t see this for looking.
by confessions on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:40 am
A few more from george.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/6971961190/in/photostream
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7117963859/in/photostream
by BK on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:40 am
356
Bush fire beg you to write this to conroy,
Ring his office, in melbourne see who to send emails to for quick reading. I often
Think emails to canberra take some time to be read,
Or talk to his electorate office
by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:40 am
Pyne letting the cat out of the bag. This government has never been legitimate because it has never had the majority.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:40 am
by joe2 on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:40 am
Pyne its not really about the numbers. Its about good government.
They really are delusional.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:41 am
Victoria, see #326. Westminster should be streamed tonight.
Leveson & other reports are due in in the Northern Autumn. As the Oz government can only be rolled in the HoR – no way Quentin will do a Kerr, not to get a virtual DLP leader from the 50s – it’s a day by day count. So far, Wilkie is the government’s only flake, and even he is still saying he’ll pass the Budget; so that’s probably some guarantee until the end of June.
If the Government survives those 19 days, a whole lot of legislation is enacted, esp the CP. Who knows what will happen in the UK & USA before our Parliament sits again. There’s now even a question as to whether Cameron will still be PM.
2012 Parliamentary sittings: The Parliament’s sitting calendar amended on 14 March 201.
19 days to go until the Winter Recess. Parliament then resumes 14 August (7 sitting days), then 10 September for 8.
By this time, the preliminary reports (at least) of the UK Inquiries into Phone etc Hacking should be in. There’s a (so far faint) possibility Murdoch will have achieved Regime Change, but not the one he wanted (in Oz) but the one he didn’t (UK)! Focus will be on the USA elections.
Think incrementally, and positively.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:42 am
Should the Puff Adder appear on QandA if it’s still the subject of civil proceedings?*
*Rhetorical question.
by BK on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:42 am
Gallery george http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/
by This little black duck on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:43 am
Pyne now bringing up the FWA reversal of onus of proof FFS!
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:44 am
Twiggy has a puff piece in today’s West
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/13551559/forrest-at-home-in-red-dust/
Did Mr Forrest pay for the reporter to travel to his property?
by confessions on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:44 am
Poodle Pyne only brings up fur balls!
by BK on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:44 am
OPT
I have been counting down to the 1st July for months. It seems so far away right now!!
by victoria on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:44 am
We are blaming Windsor and Oakshott for this.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:45 am
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:46 am
Janice may be there re people so well off they dont get a pension
But i do hear of people who think they are to well ofv to receive one.
But are not, snobbery
I new if ne w of a lady that never used her concession card, pension is a stigma ‘lol
Then i had an aquaintance tell me you could not get a oension til ‘u spent
All yes all your super,
by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:46 am
If I bring a civil claim against Grattan for giving me migraines will she stand down?
by Son of foro on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:46 am
First three callers positive for the government.
Pyne certainly having an effect.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:47 am
Caller on ABC just made a good point – will the Liberals accept Thomson’s “tainted vote”
LOL
by womble on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:49 am
OPT
Yeah by election time the political landscape is going to be dramatically different.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:49 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/apr/29/david-cameron-no-deal-murdoch
If wee Davey thinks Leveson won’t be joining dots he is sadly mistaken.
by This little black duck on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:50 am
Of course, if Forrest challenges the MRRT in the High Court, the govenment must rain as there is civil action against it
/Abbott
by Burgey on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:51 am
womble/386
That should be a tweet.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:51 am
The President of the NSW Council of Civil Liberties is entering politics as a Labor Candidate if I am hearing right. Running for Sydney City Council.
The Labor party must still have something going for it. Remember I am a Green voter.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:54 am
So is Abbott PM yet? I’m rather looking forward to him trotting over to Indonesia in his first week to give them a taste of his famed negotiation skills. If it’s anything like his sterling work post -2010 election with the indies, we’ll be at war with them in no time.
Still, if it doesn’t work out maybe he can get Ashby to claim they harassed him and ask them to step down.
by Aguirre on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:54 am
RUBBISH. Complete crap!
Tell me one thing that Rabbott has achieved. One concrete thing that he has done.
Simply, you can’t because he is bloody useless.
by muttleymcgee on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:54 am
That’s a LIE. Labor does not have a majority; but the Gillard Government in the HoR is a coalition of ALP, Indies, and a Green; and, in the Senate, ALP + Greens “have the numbers”. There is nothing illegitimate about a Minority Government – even the UK has one.
In truth, the Gillard Government must have a majority, since it has passed over 300 pieces of legislation and the L-NP coalition stopped not a single one. No what a government can pass legislation if it can’t command a majority on the foors of the HoR & Senate.
Liberals are such liars!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:55 am
OzPol Tragic,
Do you really think many people in Australia care about Leveson, let alone link it to politics here?
by Burgey on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:55 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-30/rich-getting-richer-in-the-uk/3979334
by confessions on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:57 am
Morning all
That is classic and, after watching Abbott with Rowlands this morning, very pertinent. It was like watching a comedy sketch. Rowlands actually asked a couple of curly questions re Slipper in 2003 and Fisher. Abbott stumbled a bit and talked in that hesitant way he has but then got back to the same old, same old grind.
Of course he told us that he believes in presuming innocence until found guilty!! I am bewildered that the Liberals find no shame in the bloke.
by BH on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:58 am
My say,
The self-funded retirees I know are always crying poor whilst happily funding bi-annual overseas trips and telling everyone at every opportunity that “we don’t get a brass razoo from the government”. They call themselves pensioners and most hold a pensioner and/or senior’s card and line up for any persioner discounts these cards offer. Without exception they all vote coalition and refer to labor voters as “communist”.
by janice2 on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:59 am
I said this would happen weeks ago coming up to the EoFY and it has, and will continue. Further there is probably another piece of confected rubbish coming up because:
Mining will do anything to stop the MRRT
Tobacco will do anything to stop Plain Packaging
Industry will do anything to stop the ETS
Hang in there, Good People, its going to be a bumpy ride.
by muttleymcgee on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:00 am