Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.
UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
my say – I think it was 52/38 from memory, the rest undecided
by Mick77 on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:28 am
lizzie
Perhaps you could gain some calm by looking at the front page of this morning’s deadwood OO. The “nightmare” may be a brief interlude………..
“Double blow as Baillieu poll plunge puts party’s support on knife edge”
by poroti on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:30 am
You mean a picture of a hand with the middle finger raised?
by Darn on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:30 am
I hope he runs in Fisher against Slipper
by Danny Lewis on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:30 am
This is all the fault of Gillard and the hacks that put her there.
by bluegreen on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:30 am
I wonder how Mr Keane’s articles will be with the barb by JG about group think made.
I imagine JG reads Mr Keane as well as other non News Limited journos she was having a go at with the group think line.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:31 am
Not silly at all. I’ve long thought that the best way to start a left-leaning newspaper would be to poach the sports writers from the Herald Sun, put them on the front page and get the politics to the back pages.
by Son of foro on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:33 am
They try to, at every opportunity.
by This little black duck on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:33 am
Clive Palmer Vs @SwannyDPM – Bring It On!!!!!
by The Finnigans on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
poroti
Not good enough. We still have – is it two and a half? – years of destruction to go.
by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
As long as it isn’t Groom, I don’t give a stuff! Chainsaw might be a Tory (this area doesn’t vote Labor or for Referenda – not in well over a century!) but he is a good hard-working local member I could live with as the next Tory PM.
I’m past the age when governments can actually do me much more harm than force Offspring to hock the house to put me into care if I have a bad stroke/ other health problem, and he can’t act as my carer (the sheer cost of Nursing Homes today – given the legislation hasn’t made it to Parliament yet alone passed it – should ensure I’m cared for at home!)
Any electorate silly enough to vote for Palmer deserves what its voters get.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:35 am
by Space Kidette on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:36 am
Clive Palmer update.
by poroti on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:36 am
Clive Palmer running for Parliament, is that a joke. Just imagine him knuckling down to parliamentary rules and procedure. These guys are Da Boss, they do as they please!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:37 am
Clive Palmer has announced that if he can get preselection for the LNP, he will run against Wayne Swan.
by fiona reynolds on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:37 am
The trouble, as I see it, is that shortly after the 2010 election the polls shifted sharply toward the Coalition and stayed there. So we’ve had a whole term where the majority of people were in favour of the Coalition and the ALP were running the minority government. It’s the ‘minority’ part of it that’s the issue – it being so close to line ball in the first place. That’s a hard sell for an incumbent government, and it allows almost any claim against them to stick.
If the ALP want a circuit breaker, they may have to do something a little unorthodox to shift the discussion back to policy. Instead of dismissing and stonewalling every Coalition claim, which only seems to inflame matters and bring on more rhetoric, perhaps they could start by saying: well, if the Coalition are so adamant that they should be the party in power, then let’s hear their claim. Let them make the case that they can run the country better than it’s being run now. They have about 16 months to go and a lot of policy positions to clarify. We suggest they get started straight away.
And it begins with their budget reply. We will be releasing a comprehensive budget statement, and we expect more from Joe Hockey than rhetoric this time around. If he’s serious about being Federal Treasurer, he needs to prove his competence, and this time have it signed off by Treasury, who he would be dealing with while in power. We’ll place our economic record up against his economic plan. But we need to hear it. The Australian people need to hear what they’re getting themselves into.
Same with Tony Abbott. We’ve heard a lot of ‘aspirational policies’ which are really no more than ideas. We’ve heard nothing about how he can achieve any of them. The time for attacking the other side is over. The next election is too close for him to continue down that path. He needs to make the case for his own party. We’ll place our policy record up against his policy strategy. But we need to know what that is.
The spectre of Coalition government is starting to become a possibility, and they need to prove their competence. You can’t run a government simply by criticising the other side, you need to make your case as well. We’re up to the challenge.
***
It works as a circuit breaker because every time a journalist wants to question a minister about a ‘scandal’ or ‘numbers on the floor’ or ‘poll figures’, the response can always be, “Well, these things bring the Coalition closer to power. But are they ready for that?”
It also short-circuits the “election now!” talk, by creating the impression that the next election is indeed just around the corner and time is running out.
by Aguirre on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:37 am
Puff the Magic Dragon, do you reckon that Twiggy and Gina will challenge Smith and … in WA?
by fiona reynolds on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:38 am
No one has told me what line has been crossed. When was it crossed? By whom? And why is it now that something needs to be done about it, when there was no problem last week, or last year?
This is the Prime Minister that refuses to explain.
You can’t blame Rudd on this one.
by bluegreen on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:38 am
by Space Kidette on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:38 am
Palmer was practising his hustings speech at QandA last week. Very repetitive.
His problem is that he can only speak in short grabs because his lung capacity seems inadequate (see how I skate around the personal insults!). However, three word speeches seem to go down well for Abbott
by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:39 am
bg
The line that has been crossed is by the media. Not reporting factually has crossed the line. See Leveson. More clues. Group think and fiction writers used in presser.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:40 am
blugreen,
A fair call, but, it doesn’t really add much, does it? It’s like saying “Abbott’s a lying prick”. I mean, it’s an opinion, yes, but what’s the point? It’s not like we haven’t heard it all before.
It’s just noise.
by drake on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:40 am
And stymies Mal Brough yet again! I’d LOVE to see that.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:41 am
by Space Kidette on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:42 am
Yawn
by Diogenes on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:42 am
Why does Clive want to win a parliamentary seat when he already owns 73 of them?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:42 am
bluegreen @ 467
And isn’t that bleeding obvious. Blind Freddy can see it.
by bemused on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:42 am
The poor bogans dont know about leeveso where would they find out about it
To watch it,
by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:43 am
by Space Kidette on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:43 am
Puff that would be a great tweet 475
by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:44 am
Who would have thunk that. Clive Palmer from QLD trying to revive Joh for PM. Abbott, Howard’s love child, must be cursing his luck #auspol
by The Finnigans on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:44 am
by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:44 am
I think Gillard saw some line when she was in Turkey. Oh and someone walked across it.
And there was a dark cloud somewhere as well.
Sorry I can’t be more specific.
by Diogenes on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:45 am
Clive Palmer could turn out to be one of those gifts that keeps on giving.
by bemused on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:45 am
Bit of courage doesn’t hurt! No giving up now, election is 18 months away.
NBN being rolled out, the more it is the harder it will be to stop the rollout.
ETS compensation flowing, super contributions rising
The $18K TFT coming into force will see more being spent because the ones receiving it will have to spend it.
Monkeyman is threshing up ripples, but that is all. He needs a quick election because he has no policies.
Parties have been this low in the polls at this stage and came back to win the next election. I am tired of people wanting to lay down and surrender. Bah! I am not delusional. We are in a tough spot but monkeyman cannot force an election before 1 July and so is lost no matter how loudly he blusters! And that bluster is trampling on the concept of presumed innocent until proved guilty—he is leaving himself wide open to attack there because everything is based on a quick transfer of power to him, preferably without a pesky election fought on policy!
by political animal on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:45 am
by Space Kidette on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:46 am
lizzie,
The management has approved officially of fat jokes for C Palmer only.
by This little black duck on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:46 am
Palmer – ultra rich, corpulent windbag to buy a seat in Parliament.
Bloody terrific!
by BK on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:46 am
my say
The line has been crossed was a warning to Journos.
Expect Government response to Finklestein to be in line with Greens not Murdoch on this.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:46 am
Puff,
I agree. Please tweet that comment.
by Space Kidette on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:46 am
by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:47 am
guytaur—exactly, Abbott risking all sorts of long term pain because he has to win power NOW!
by political animal on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:47 am
PM @JuliaGillard & @SwannyDPM should get down on their bended knees and thank Clive Palmer from keep on giving #auspol
by The Finnigans on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:48 am
bemused,
I was searching for the right words, but you’ve beaten me to it.
by drake on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:49 am
Good timing Clive Palmer. Focus attention back on budget and economics.
Destroys Abbott sleaze tactics.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:49 am
bluegreen and diogenes
Yes, it’s easy to laugh at the crossing the line. Latika wondered who made it up… I think that Labor is being very badly served by their speech writers and their media people.
Why the hell can’t they get some decent advice. Some PBers have more savvy.
by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:50 am
She was referring to the Canberra fiction writers and their blood frenzy. Consider it explained. Apologies from the PM for not texting you personally.
by Son of foro on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:50 am
The first time Clive lands in his personal helicopter and arrives at the microphones for a presser breathing so heavily he can’t speak 5% will immediately fall off the LNP primary in Lilley.
by Boinzo on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:50 am
tlbd
BK just did it for me : corpulent windbag
by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:51 am
drake @ 493
I don’t take much credit for it… occasionally something just leaps out of you and I have a good collection of memorable quotes for most occasions.
by bemused on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:52 am