Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

Sunday, April 29, 2012

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

2189 Responses

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Andrew Greene ‏ @AndrewBGreene · Open
Pretty certain the LNP will be sticking with their existing candidate in Lilley http://www.mypolitician.com.au/queensland/lilley/rod-mcgarvie/
Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke Close
Sorry ur candidate isn’t very social! Lol. RT @AndrewBGreene LNP … existing candidate in Lilley http://www.mypolitician.com.au/queensland/lilley/rod-mcgarvie/

Do like this on the present LNP candidate for Lilley he is certainly low key

by mari on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:12 am
Oh was quick grab. Sorry not quick enough for those trying to avoid.

by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:12 am
Whens clives news conf, announcing i hope abboott is next to him nodding

by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:13 am
Clive is a self parody. Just heard him on radio talking about how the govt needs more revenue to assist those not so well off. Can you believe it?

bemused,

Just more of the dishonest sales pitch. Typical Clive.

Getting back to a Swan v Palmer campaign feature, Palmer is, as we now well know, erratic and gaffe-prone. And, importantly, an election campaign is focussed and persists for many weeks – lots of opportunity for lots of gaffes. Dangerous stuff for the LNP.

by drake on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:13 am
Antony Green on 702 said Swan has a margin of 3.2%

by MTBW on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:13 am
After Midday Gillard at Disability Rally Live.

by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:14 am
Paul Howes

TONY JONES: Has your union ever withdrawn its support, in this manner, from a sitting prime minister?

PAUL HOWES: Well, you know, it's been a long time since something like that's happened. I can't look through the annals of the history of the union. We were formed in 1886. But this is pretty unprecedented and the situation we're in is pretty dire.

This is a good Government with a good record and we can't get that message out. We can't get that message out because there is a dark cloud over the Labor leadership and there has been for the last few weeks and months.

It's important we put that behind us, we have a strong, solid message about what Labor stands for. It stands for fairness in our workplace, it stands for a strong health and hospitals network, it stands for a fair redistribution of wealth out of the mining industry and if we can't get that message out under the current Prime Minister that's why it's time for a change.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2010/s2935399.htm

by bluegreen on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:15 am
confessions@331, thanks for that tweet exchange on the bug up Grattan’s arse re Gillard (because Grattan does not have the hot line to Gillard that she had with Howard).

Grattan’s reporting on Gillard has become pathologically unprofessional, devoid of any rational objectivity and poisoned with personal animosity.

by susan winstanley on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:15 am
my say

An appropriate cartoon from the Joh for Canberra era
http://nla.gov.au/nla.pic-an22985736-v

by poroti on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:15 am
victoria @528
Yes.

by rosemour on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:15 am
Getting back to a Swan v Palmer campaign feature, Palmer is, as we now well know, erratic and gaffe-prone. And, importantly, an election campaign is focussed and persists for many weeks – lots of opportunity for lots of gaffes. Dangerous stuff for the LNP

That is what was said about Newman

by shellbell on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:15 am
Hmmm…. $50k eh? probably worth it if your desperate

Some even claim that a well-known Slipper nemesis on the Sunshine Coast arranged the payment. We’re not yet willing to name the person but he is a senior political figure.

I guess we don’t want to be sued for naming said person

by sprocket_ on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:16 am
If Vex is right (historically an even money bet), then Slipper/Cth could move for security for costs against Ashby: say $250k each

by shellbell on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:17 am
While vacuming i just wodered. Does tone know about clive or did he just hear it via The media

by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:18 am
Clive Palmer running for parliament would be nice.

I’d LOVE to see his financial disclosure, for a start.

Clive is one of the LNP buffoons who can be guaranteed to unhinge. We’ve already seen the start of it. He just can’t keep his mouth shut, because he’s not really a professional politician.

Hosing him down (why do I get an image of Jessie the Elephant having a bath when I write that?) would be quite a wonderful thing to see.

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:19 am
bluegreen

and if we can't get that message out under the current Prime Minister that's why it's time for a change.

What now then?

by MTBW on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:19 am
Does tone know about clive or did he just hear it via The media

I imagine that like all of Clive’s employees he heard it from the media.

by Son of foro on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:20 am
If the vex news story has legs, the coalition will want people to be looking anywhere but at the Slipper issue in 24 hours time. Cue the Clive Palmer comedy show to take the punter’s attention away. Conspiracy theory I know, but what the hell!

by ajm on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:20 am
So, Rupert Murdoch calls for the closing of loopholes that compnies use to avoid tax. Hmm, I wonder if he’s referring to them may loopholes that Newscorp takes advantage of.

Clive Palmer calls for more revenue to be raised to help the poor. Sure Clive, how about a Mineral Resources Rent Tax? How about raising the tax bracket for billionaires to 50%? 60%? 70%

by Dan Gulberry on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:21 am
sorry folks the narrative out in punterville is overwhelming the government.
The ‘worst since Whitlam’ shite is all over the place.
The ALP are in for an absolute thrashing.
It’ll be the worst federal election defeat since federation.
No doubt.

Just saying this is therapeutic in an odd way…..

by rosemour on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:21 am
Yeah, yeah, Vex says Ashby has been paid off. But WHERE IS HE?

Why has no-one sought him out and cornered him? Is it because the media don’t want to spoil the purity of the perfect, self-generated (by way of in-house interviews with each other) “sex scandal” they’re trying to sell to the Australian people?

I demand the bloodied knuckles of James Ashby.

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:22 am
so why is Vexnews the only “media outlet” pursuing Ashby? the #newscorpse/Fairfax/ABC cartel can pay for helicopters to circle Slipper’s house etc etc but silence with regards the questionable accuser. Compare with the David Jones case recently.

anyway, if a skerick of this is true – it will be more than Clive Palmer hitting the fan if white-shoe land.

The sexual harassment claims are to be resolved by the Federal Court and will largely rest on the credibility of the accuser. If Ashby has received payment, a payment said to be in addition to the promise of assistance with all legal bills, this would inevitably come up in the hearing. If he lies about it, and there’s evidence of it that supports the rumours buzzing around Brisbane, then he’ll be guilty of perjury and in serious bother.

While we’re not expecting a response, we will be asking the national Chairman of Harmers law firm, Michael Harmer, who is personally handling Ashby’s litigation, whether Ashby is personally paying for the case and whether he is charging his normal charge-out rate of $600 per hour. It seems highly unlikely Ashby could afford him.

VEXNEWS is closely examining the life and times of James Ashby and we’re not liking what we hear. A trusted political insider, with no fondness for Labor, told us from the start “There’s something NQR (not quite right) about this whole thing.” We’re inclined to agree.

The Coalition, on the verge of a famous victory next year (if not sooner) needs to be very careful about its association with James Ashby, who apparently is a paid-up member of the LNP. If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.

http://www.vexnews.com/2012/04/brisbane-buzzes-was-james-ashby-paid-50000-to-make-his-sexual-harassment-complaint-against-slipper/

by sprocket_ on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:22 am
rosemour

The switch has just been thrown to vaudeville by the LNP. The problem for them is it returns the narrative to the budget.

by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:22 am
shellbell

gee, because I can multitask.

by zoomster on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:23 am
Sorry Zoomster?

by shellbell on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:24 am
victoria Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink

Thanks Boinzo. I am feeling rather crap today. It is descending into farce

I was to vic, till the latest from brissy, now i can see the funny side.

by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:25 am
Wouldn’t Clive take up two seats in parliament?

by deflationite on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:25 am
Guytaur
I want to be convinced I really do.
I just get this sinking feeling it’s too late.
Aside from which, I think you’re perhaps giving the punter way too much credit for rational, sane unbiased reasoned thinking on all this…

by rosemour on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:25 am
This ones for Boerwar. Its good to see the Fed Environment Minister go against the advice from his specialist scientific committee on Koalas.

In 2010, they said

This is the Committee’s second consideration of the species under the EPBC Act. The species was also considered under the previous Act.
3. Summary of Conclusion
The Committee judges that the species is not eligible for listing on the EPBC Act list of threatened species at this time.

http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pubs/koala-listing-advice.pdf

by bluegreen on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:25 am
Work? Speaking as one of the Drinking Class, I resent that.

by This little black duck on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:26 am
Dan Gulberry

So, Rupert Murdoch calls for the closing of loopholes that compnies use to avoid tax. Hmm, I wonder if he’s referring to them may loopholes that Newscorp takes advantage of.

He is using the old accuse the opposition of what you are guilty of. See draft dodging chicken hawks v John Kerry.

Tax free: Rupert Murdoch's zero status

About 60 News Corp subsidiaries are incorporated in tax havens such as the Cayman Islands, Bermuda and the British Virgin Islands.

No- or low-tax havens are a tried and tested method of minimising contributions to the public coffers. Havens such as the Isle of Man and Jersey simply require companies not trading there to make an annual one-off corporation tax payment.

Hong Kong, now a part of China, where Mr Murdoch is conducting an increasing amount of business, has a corporation tax rate which, at 17%, is more than half that of the US.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/special_report/1999/02/99/e-cyclopedia/302366.stm

by poroti on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:26 am
Will Gina be Clive’s media mogul?

by BK on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:28 am
Clive’s going to be a very busy man:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/clive-palmer-plans-to-build-titanic-ii-20120430-1xtrc.html

by MTBW on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:28 am
A National Treasure versus The World’s Greatest Treasurer.

by This little black duck on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:28 am
Political Correctness Gone Mad

7. Mr Abbott reckons that Ms Gillard should not accept Mr Thomson’s vote.

Mr Thomson has been charged with nothing. He has been convicted with nothing. He is under investigation. So were a swag of Coalition folks who voted time and again for the Coalition side. The Hokie Pokie Champ of the House on the Hill being the most recent brazen tainted voter on Mr Abbott’s crew.

Mr Abbott must also have forgotten the tainted vote of Mr Coulston which enabled the sale of Telstra. Now, in yet another fit of political correctness gone mad, Mr Abbott has declared Mr Thomson guilty, has hung, drawn and quartered Mr Thomson by way of public vilification and a kangaroo trial, and now reckons that Ms Gillard should be hung, drawn and quartered as well. Bluey reckons that Mr Abbott gives genuine hypocrites a bad name.

Score Sheet

Current Champion for Political Correctness Gone MadMan: Mr Abbott

Running Tally Political Correctness Gone MadMen and MadWomyn

Mr Abbott (5)
Mr Kennett (1)
Mr O’Farrell (1)

by Boerwar on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:28 am
And the independent international assessment lists it as a species of ‘least concern’

Red List Category & Criteria: Least Concern ver 3.1
Year Published: 2008
Assessor/s: Gordon, G., Menkhorst, P., Robinson, T., Lunney, D., Martin, R. & Ellis, M.
Reviewer/s: Lamoreux, J. & Hilton-Taylor, C. (Global Mammal Assessment Team)
Justification:
Listed as Least Concern in view of its wide distribution, presumed large population, and because it is unlikely to be declining at nearly the rate required to qualify for listing in a threatened category. This is a high profile species that varies greatly in population size and density across its range, and requires intensive management in areas where it is considered a pest species, as well as in those regions where it is known to be in decline

http://www.iucnredlist.org/apps/redlist/details/16892/0

by bluegreen on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:29 am
O dear the concern troll is back.

We need frank

by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:29 am
my say

It is definitely a farce

by victoria on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:29 am
rosemour

No I am thinking the msm is going to have to cover Clive Palmer as a story. The budget and economics are a large part of that story.

by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:29 am
my say

I miss Frank too. I liked the way he told everyone to harden up. I need him to tell me that today

by victoria on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:30 am
When a poster starts with sorry folks i read no further

by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:31 am
my say

Posters are carrying on about the election next year. I would be very happy if it was guaranteed that there would be no election until late next year. That is a good result from my perspective

by victoria on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:33 am
Yes its ridiculous a nd he knows who the troll are,

Want frank soi iety

Now wait to be attacked by the usuals lol

by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:34 am
Surely the LNP won’t pre-select Palmer surely

by davidwh on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:34 am
Victoria. Harden the .. Up.
It won’t be over until the large man loses!

by Boinzo on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:35 am
VEXNEWS is closely examining the life and times of James Ashby and we’re not liking what we hear. A trusted political insider, with no fondness for Labor, told us from the start “There’s something NQR (not quite right) about this whole thing.” We’re inclined to agree.

The Coalition, on the verge of a famous victory next year (if not sooner) needs to be very careful about its association with James Ashby, who apparently is a paid-up member of the LNP. If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.

Quick! Someone tell Michelle that the line about Gillard and fleas has been stolen !

by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:36 am
I guess we don’t want to be sued for naming said person

Nyaah. But if isn’t public knowledge by 8 May, someone will do it in the parliament.

If Vex is right, this will be Bigger That Grech’s Utegate – the scandal that cost Mal Turnbull LOTO

Now we might be looking at Joh for Canberra Reprised. I did so enjoy Joh for Canberra. Howie says it cost him Election 11 July 1987; Joh was rolled 1 December 1987 and LNP lost the 1989 election. From then until the recent Q election, the LNP was in power for only c2.5 years.

Trust SE QLD Liberals to shoot themselves & their Fed Party in the foot just as they seemed triumphant!

by OzPol Tragic on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:36 am
Surely the LNP won’t pre-select Palmer surely

That’d be a lot of donation $ to miss out on if they don’t….

by Boinzo on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:36 am
There is a conflict of interests there even a fit person couldn’t jump over. Nah it can’t happen can it surely.

by davidwh on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:36 am
okay you win.
Everything is great.
The government is travelling well.
Julia Gillard is a much loved and respected leader.
Just mention her name in public and people cheer and sing.
Tony Abbott is a bad bad man. Everyone, absolutely everyone thinks so.
No one is going to vote for the Coalition because they’re an absolute joke.
Nothing to look at here. Move on everybody.

Gee, I don’t know what the hell I was worried about.
We’re in with a real shot next year!!!! Go Julia!!!!! YAY YAY!!!!

by rosemour on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:37 am

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