Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.
UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Boinzo
I will do my best. Anyhow need to run some errands. Catch you guys later
by victoria on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:38 am
Btw has anyone ever taken Vex seriously?
by victoria on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:39 am
Yes we have three wise men at the helm
Oakshott, windsor brandt ,,
Late next year they can wait till november, say thats when people are always happy in the lead upto christmas, never atound football time though finals ect, bythen there will be a lot of people not around who are now i woukd say
by my say on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:39 am
David
They preselected his son!!!!
by daretotread on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:39 am
may say @ 590
Don’t tell fibs.
Happy trolls are pissing in the wind again.
by rosemour on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:39 am
my say and victoria
Frank is a ratbag now running his own asylum. Best he stay there.
by bemused on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:40 am
Victoria
Vex seems hit and miss to me. Tends to write in an uber gossipy way
by shellbell on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:41 am
hear hear bemused.
by rosemour on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:42 am
Well, some might be lucky to be MG free but damn it if she has not turned up in the venerable West today.
Thank you Fairfax!
Same old, same old……… – This current government, almost killed off at birth, attacked relentlessly by its opponents and enemies – some, disgracefully – so called Labor supporters, is still on its feet.
It is that which is really getting the conservatives so angry.
The mood, as much as I can pick it up, is indifference, but there is no doubt, currently
“The Carbon Tax” is not good for Labor – and no amount of word twisting is going to change the perception is is a “tax” for most of the punters.
All the argy-bargy with Slipper and Thompson are just grist for the mill for the media and gives them a narrative to attack.
abor just has to put up with it as part of minority government.
There are just two options for Labor.
They either win in 2013 or they lose.
Both are possibilities, still nearly a year and a half out from elections, 2 budgets and an election campaign away.
I still cannot believe that people who should know better are junking the government at this point in time. If, three weeks out, the polls are 60-40, well there might not be much of a future for Labor, but we are still a long way to go.
Labor is in power and that is all that matters.
As I have said on more than one occasion, the trick is to still be in power in 2013.
Survival is everything – regardless of the sudden call for some kind of “morality” from the press and opposition.
Interestingly, the more thoughtful pundits, are conceding that this has “not been a bad government” but claim just “getting legislation through is not enough”. One wonders what is.
The attention now is on JG “falling on her sword”. Having failed to seemingly ruffle her, she is now being asked to ‘cop one for the party’ rubbish.
I am still waiting for someone to tease out what difference a change of leader would make to Labor’s fortunes and to also tease out what policy changes would be necessary to “win the people back”?
By the way, someone made a laughable claim earlier that Abbott had the measure of Rudd. Actually, Rudd wiped the floor with Abbott on the occasions I saw them go head to head.
As far as I can see, it is still the same 6-8% of the electorate, who call themselves Labor voters but have parked their vote with Abbott, Others and the Greens.
Until these have been got back, the polls will not look all that good.
by Tricot on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:42 am
rosemour
Please stop being so irrational. You talk as if we don’t care.
by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:43 am
davidwh @ 593
Of course they will if that’s what he wants. After all, he owns them.
by bemused on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:43 am
rosemour
We live in a democracy last time I looked and you are as entitled to voice your opinion on here as anyone else.
William moderates this blog no one else.
by MTBW on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:43 am
Centrebet on seat of Lilley
Swan $1.30
Palmer $3.20
Other $9.00
As mentioned before, diversionary tactic to keep media occupied on the trivial
BB – You’re so correct regarding the need to come from a position of strength. ALP needs to sink the Murdoch propaganda machine before it sinks this government and it’s progressive agenda. Bloody hell, it’s got to be close to treason.
by David McRae on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:44 am
poroti @580
Thanks for the link on Murdoch’s tax affairs. That will be included in my series of articles on Murdoch in the Derp.
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:44 am
Rosemour, you are absolutely correct that the Govt’s current position is dire. Those wanting to kill off the Govt are aiming to get the PM’s head on a plate. She is not popular in a large part of the community. In my view that lack of popularity is based more on emotion that objective and reasonable assessment of her performance.
It is a very fluid situation. Yet, the Govt is not likely to fall despite the quite hysterical rantings of some in the media. Abbott is simply doing his job – creating an atmosphere of chaos.
I of course am very worried as a member of the ALP. But, I think keeping Gillard is the best scenario in what appears to be Hobson’s choice.
I try to stay positive. I have joined the party to do my bit to help here in Qld. That is all I can do. If my attempts to stay positive strays into delusion, I try to correct that.
by Lynchpin on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:45 am
lizzie @ 609
Actually, I think rosemour does care.
He was parodying those on PB who prefer their own version of reality which does not match what is observed in the real world. The government is in trouble.
by bemused on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:46 am
No prizes for guessing who this is. He popped up early on Day 2 to make his own considered and valuable contribution to the debate
by Danny Lewis on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:47 am
Peter Slipper will be making a statement under parliamentary privilege on Budget Day.
The media expect this will be to their own script- “So sorry, serious allegations, honour of the parliament etc.” – but what if it’s a bombshell and names names?
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:47 am
It has been since just after Copenhagen.
by Lynchpin on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:48 am
Lynchpin @ 614
I happen to disagree, but I respect your opinion and admit your judgement could be better than mine. Time will tell.
What I don’t appreciate on PB is those (and you are not one AFAIR) who try to shut down any who disagree with them.
by bemused on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:49 am
I’m not sure what exactly rosemour and his ilk expect us to do.
I can’t see how joining the ‘government is doomed!’ chorus helps.
If you’re worried about the situation, don’t waste your time fighting true believers here – get out there and start Fighting Tories!
by zoomster on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:50 am
I doubt he will ever be speaker again if he uses PP like Heffernan or Xenophon whatever the legitimacy of what he says
by shellbell on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:51 am
Twitter suggesting Brough or Palmer supporting Ashby.
by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:52 am
ShiftyPhil – what was the question to people, please?
I see Thomson is getting on with work and looking to get more work in the area. A great pity that some of the nervous nellies on the backbench don’t do the same instead of chatter about leadership.
by BH on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:52 am
BB
Slipper’s statement under privilege could well knock of the Budget from the front pages of next days papers. It will say a great deal about contemporary politics.
by al palster on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:53 am
sprocket@435,
Abbott-Proof Fencing of all ALP legislation is definitely occurring. Not that we’ll need it if Vex News scoop on Ashby is to be believed.
by C@tmomma on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:54 am
Im surprised senior commentators calling for Gilllard’s head (eg Grattan) havent also noted the obvious: if it wasnt for Tony Abbott, the indies might have already switched sides.
But wiht TOny at the helm – its simply inconceivable.. He just too much of a tool!
Tony Abbott: single-handedly denying the coalition government since 2010.
by lefty e on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:54 am
BH@623
Something along the lines of “What is your opinion of Julia?” and “Do you think her position is tenable?”
by ShiftyPhil on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:55 am
lefty e
Shhhhhhhh. The Coalition might hear you.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:56 am
by lizzie on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:57 am
Note how the main running is being made by opinionistas, Abbott and Pyne, with Brandis SC also running. No Hockey, or Robb or other senior Coalition figures touching this even at barge-pole distance.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:58 am
by Space Kidette on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:58 am
onya Lynchpin and Zoomster – no point in sitting around ‘glooming’. Nobody won a hard battle doing that.
The Clive Palmer thing today will be a test for the MSM. How are they going to report this idiocy. The bloke can barely speak without fighting for breath.
by BH on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:58 am
Fool’s gold.
by bluegreen on Apr 30, 2012 at 10:59 am
by sprocket_ on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:00 am
BH
We have hope. Latika Bourke was tweeting jokes regarding Palmer.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:00 am
snap SK
twitter is awash with Palmer jokes at the moment, can’t see this ending well for Abbott somehow.
After all Cam Newman was parachuted in by LNP from outsidethe Qld Parliament, why not the same for Big Clive? Works for me.
by sprocket_ on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:02 am
Are you referring to your pending new leader Clive Palmer? But hey, look at all the billionaire mining cash he will bring in.
by sprocket_ on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:03 am
Bludgers I caught the scent of Julia Gillard’s political carcass swinging in the breeze and just had to log on to the old internet to see what was afoot. And it’s even worse than I thought! Michelle Grattan (who hasn’t written anything insightful or entertaining since around the turn of the century, but still) is even calling for Gillard’s resignation.
I can’t deny that the situation excites me. It is only a matter of time for Gillard now. I must confess that my faith in the certainty of her demise was shaken somewhat when Kevin Rudd (seemingly) miscalculated and launched his challenge too early, but now she has to be just about finished. Her chances of leading the ALP to the next election must be close to zero.
She is the author of her own misfortune. She never had a vision for the country – when she knifed Rudd and took over she only talked about fixing political problems for the ALP, she never articulated a vision based on values for the nation. And then (political dunce that she is) she painted herself (!) as a fake by doing her “real Julia” routine. This is a recurring trend with her. Just this morning I read that she used the phrase “dark cloud” to describe the current parliament – this is the parliament she is meant to be giving the impression she is in control of!
She is hopeless. I can’t wait to see her gone. I wonder how she will try to play it. I predict she will feel all martyred for the cause and try and pretend like she saved the ALP from some worse fate with her selfless stepping in to the leadership. She wishes! She rolled the dice and lost. She was a dud – a no-hoper who made herself a national joke and object of ridicule from a surprising variety of usually non-political sources.
Goodnight sweet prince.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:03 am
Can the adenoidal, emphysemic, corpulent blowhard gain sufficient credibility to even get LNP preselection?
We shall see.
by BK on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:04 am
It’s interesting how those saying what a terrible idea it was to oust a sittng PM are now advocating it happening again. They argue Labor is in this position because of the change then argue it’s the panacea to Labor’s woes now. Anyone seeing the contradiction here?
by Gary on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:05 am
This is the only way Clive could be parachuted in.
http://ts2.mm.bing.net/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=4862238529881005&id=fc1841a02c0676e3c135aa41cbbac917
by BK on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:06 am
Bemused
I doubt my judgment is better than yours. If I knew that there was someone else who could restore the PV to about 36% without the Govt having the appearance of having caught NSW Labor revolving door of leadership syndrome, I would consider it. I just think any new leader would be attacked mercilessly as were Rudd and Gillard and it would be a wasted effort.
by Lynchpin on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:06 am
LSL
Delusion. Well written. Still delusion. Numbers game. Numbers remain in Government favour. Try again someday.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:06 am
Zoomster
If you’re worried about the situation, don’t waste your time fighting true believers here – get out there and start Fighting Tories!
This is what I was trying to say last night (poorly granted).
Lynchpin – I agree with your assessment @ 614. It is a Hobson’s choice. But rather than sit around wringing my hands I have chosen to join the party and try to help – and to try to be optimistic. I respect people’s need to bend to “realism” but still think there is plenty of time yet.
by Boinzo on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:06 am
LSL
enjoy the Unhingement when nothing happens with regards ALP leadership – a full 18 months of it to come
by sprocket_ on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:06 am
LSL, a waste of time and effort mate. Three words in and the scroll wheel went into action. Have a good day.
by Gary on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:06 am
Gary
Surely you weren’t expecting sense from the media? You should know better than that.
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:07 am
From Twitter:
Neither did I!
by drowner on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:07 am
Reply will be interesting – $1.01 Mcllelan, spokesperson for Ashby, will say no
by shellbell on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:08 am