tip off

Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

6396
  • 1
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    bit odd – while Labor going down it’s not that Coalition’s have improved much.

    Could be in for another Minority gov ?

  • 2
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    *sigh*

  • 3
    Thomas Paine.
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    Can all the lib dreams actually come true and the “geniuses” in the ALP just think the best thing to do is steam on ahead? I am just amazed at the stupidity….you don’t normally see this level of repeated incompetence from a major party go unchallenged

    So what are the powerbrokers to do. Keep on protecting their power with a Gillard blocker, or face the dunny brush of Rudd. Stupid thing is the worse they let it become the more they need somebody to save the day, the more they have to acquiesce.

  • 4
    middle man
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    minority govt? hmmm not on these numbers. 51% pv. thats humungus landslide territory.

  • 5
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    sp rocket ‏ @sprocket___

    #newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 23%, Clive Palmer 12%, Gillard 1%, Rupert Murdoch 64%. (nb Murdoch staff + family has special voting rights)

    12m sp rocket sp rocket ‏ @sprocket___

    MurdochPoll (aka #newspoll ) could not pull off the 92% anti ALP number which the tabloids did today on Murdoch's orders #newscorpse

    16m sp rocket sp rocket ‏ @sprocket___

    @campricenews @SkyNewsAust MurdochPoll new name for #newspoll Furthers #newscorpse official bribing, widow hacking, politician blackmailing

  • 6
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    bit odd – while Labor going down it’s not that Coalition’s have improved much

    I assume that is a joke zoidlord – the coalition has gained more than Labor lost – coming from the greens or others?

  • 7
    spur212
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    From the previous thread

    Sorry, but that’s the final straw for me. Get the key changes through (love the idea of bringing the carbon permit auction forward to Abbott proof the price on carbon) and bring back Kevin around August.

    Whatever damage his micro management did in 2010 is nothing compared to this kind of pain in the polls. This is an excellent government on policy and doesn’t deserve to be in this position. I’m a big fan of Julia Gillard, I think she’s done an incredible job in the most difficult circumstances but this is simply too much. Don’t want to say that, but it’s simply the highly unplesant reality of the situation.

    FYi, part of this has to do with the fact that Abbott hasn’t been put in his box and left alone. It doesn’t work and the polls are evidence of that. Rudd understands the values game better than anyone and having some DLP history in his family, he knows all the trigger points to hit Abbott where it hurts

  • 8
    Bob Katter's Hat
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    bit odd – while Labor going down it’s not that Coalition’s have improved much

    HUH?

    LIB/NP PV is up 10% from 2010 election!

  • 9
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    glory

    Previous thread. It gives rise to doubt. As does the thousands cheering the Prime Minister today.

    I am not saying Labors stocks are low. I am just questioning these particular results.
    I am saying they are skewed by media talk all week saying PM fail. When the opposite is actually the case most of the time.
    If the PM had actually failed Labor would be the opposition. The media timed its heat and noise to peak as this poll was being taken.
    They got the result that Murdoch wanted. He is after regime change do not doubt it for a second. He who pays the piper calls the tune.

  • 10
    middle man
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    sorry spur. i dont think going back to Rudd is the answer. but do agree that this govt has done excellent policy work.

  • 11
    confessions
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    bemused:

    I apply same standard. I have a high regard for some female politicians…but I don’t focus on their sex,

    Crap bemused. This is what you said:

    bemused:

    I watched her on TV and she was just trying to appear hairy chested. Not a good look for a female PM!

    The inference being that if she was a bloke all would be fine.

    Instead of weazling away from what you said like some LNP spam bot, just own your own comments.

    All you’ve done tonight is reveal your apparent hatred for women in positions of power and authority with your thug comments.

  • 12
    Fiz
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    The best thing about this poll is that GhostWhoVotes is getting Newspoll numbers early again. Suck on that Peter van Onselen! BWAhahahahhahaha!

    *ahem*

  • 13
    vera
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    How low, can she go?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3sxc5-3CSU

  • 14
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    sprocket,

    Dud poll. Murdoch > 70% or it’s a dud.

  • 15
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    Previous thread. It gives rise to doubt. As does the thousands cheering the Prime Minister today.

    I am not saying Labors stocks are low. I am just questioning these particular results.
    I am saying they are skewed by media talk all week saying PM fail. When the opposite is actually the case most of the time.
    If the PM had actually failed Labor would be the opposition. The media timed its heat and noise to peak as this poll was being taken.
    They got the result that Murdoch wanted. He is after regime change do not doubt it for a second. He who pays the piper calls the tune.

    I don’t disagree with any of that.

    But don’t discredit a poll trend.

  • 16
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    @BBS/5

    Abbott’s numbers haven’t gone up, and Coaliton’s only going slightly up since last poll.

  • 17
    confessions
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    Rudd understands the values game better than anyone and having some DLP history in his family, he knows all the trigger points to hit Abbott where it hurts

    It was Rudd who allowed Abbott to get a toe-hold into the elecrate in the first place.

  • 18
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    *in place of a TV show.

  • 19
    confessions
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    vera:

    Great to see you back. I hope you are well.

  • 20
    This little black duck
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    spur,

    The Ruddstoration corner is over there.

  • 21
    Mithrandir
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/

    Coalition PV was 43.7. So that is an improvement of 7.3%
    ALP PV was 38. So that is a loss of 11%
    Greens PV was 11.7. I assume they are on 11% in this poll. Basically static.

  • 22
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord – you’re delusional.

    Coalition PRIMARY is above 50.

  • 23
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    Could be in for another Minority gov ?

    The Coalition have a majority on the primary vote alone and you suggest we are on track for a minority government?

    Gold! :)

  • 24
    middle man
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    this is QLD and NSW Labor territory.

    and those that run the ALP keep the ‘change’ document buried in the bottom draw. nothing wrong with us. must be the punters….

  • 25
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    glory

    As such can you not see that Labor primary vote fall this poll says needs to be confirmed by 3 or 4 polls especially ones nothing to do with Murdoch?

  • 26
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    So Confessions:

    My question about your view about posts here concerning Sophie Mirabella?

    Do you have a comment?

  • 27
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    guytaur – the trend is shifting away. Check the last 4 polls.

  • 28
    vera
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    all good thanks confessions

  • 29
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    @GC/21

    I said slightly up.

    Don’t be too delusional you’re self 18 months away from election.

    And Labor getting everything thrown at them too.

  • 30
    bluegreen
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    guytaur
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:30 pm | Permalink
    glory

    As such can you not see that Labor primary vote fall this poll says needs to be confirmed by 3 or 4 polls especially ones nothing to do with Murdoch?

    You mean like the Neilsen and Essential Report ones? Or the Morgan Poll and Galaxy? Or are they all part of the conspiracy?

  • 31
    confessions
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    My question about your view about posts here concerning Sophie Mirabella?

    Do you have a comment?

    Yes I do.

    I think the media and the coalition should adhere to the same standards when it comes to her, as they insist upon when it comes to Labor MPs in similar situations.

    I mean fair’s fair.

  • 32
    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Spur

    Rudd will be crucified second time round by #newscorpse – sort of a reverse Lazarus rising. If the ALP succumb to the hysteria to change leaders its all over red rover.

    2.30pm tomorrow interest rate cut, budget surplus next week leading to more of the same, June the Clean Energy Advance hitting everone’s bank accounts, July 1 the carbon tax does not destroy the world….

    best to just don the flak jacket andbatten down the hatches

    oh, and if peeps want to make a little difference, cancel your Foxtel subscriptions

  • 33
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    glory

    Yes the trend has been that. However I still say this is an outlier poll. Designed to bring the worst possible result to accelerate earlier efforts at downward polling pressure.
    Murdoch is after regime change and has developed this process to an art form.

    I want published polling questions. Then we have transparency. We would know if it was push polling or not. We know now not to trust NewsCorp on anything.

  • 34
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    But zoidlord … where is the narrowing??… like the second coming …it was meant to be here by now.

  • 35
    rummel
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Surely, now, there must be the inkling of realisation that the ALP is going nowhere with this leader?

    Mod Lib.

    Trust me, Gillard is the best person to lead Labor to the next election.

  • 36
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    I want published polling questions.

    The questions will be there tomorrow for you to see… as they always are. The questions that are printed are those that I was asked a few weeks back.

  • 37
    Compact Crank
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Looks less and less likely that a double dissolution will be required to roll back the CO2 Tax legislation.

    Right,lets all ignore what happened in NSW and QLD – nothing to see – State and Federal issues are seperate matters – good plicy work being done.

    Do they qualify as BISONs?

  • 38
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    bg

    See thousands cheering PM today. See Qanda audience. They seem to contradict these polls.

    While labor is bad I do not think it is as bad as this. Part of the reason is no mobile phone polling. Part of the reason is the heat and noise in the media to make this poll particularly bad.
    Negative poll reinforcing negative poll.

  • 39
    bluegreen
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    So does anyone know a good Bio on Santamaria. I want to know what our next Prime Minister with control of Both Houses is likely to want to do?

  • 40
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    @BBS/33

    What narrowing – we all said it’s 18 months till election.

    You guys said it was yesterday that Abbott was suppose to get PM’ship.

  • 41
    confessions
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    Changing leaders simply reinforces the msm/Lib narrative that there is something wrong with the govt.

    On any objective measure, this is wrong.

  • 42
    bluegreen
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    While labor is bad I do not think it is as bad as this. Part of the reason is no mobile phone polling. Part of the reason is the heat and noise in the media to make this poll particularly bad.

    Guytaur, you are digging? Newspoll stratifies its pollling by age bracket, so unless 18-25s who have mobile phones only vote differently than 18-25s who aren;t mobile only then it doesn’t matter.

  • 43
    Schnappi
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Think someday this country will owe thanks to tony windsor for his vision of optic fibre to the home and do it now,his revelations about abbott on lateline probably will not even be reported on the abc ,such is the state of lowlife journalism in this country,rather hard to find any with principles ,let alone stand up for this country.
    Hope someday all those with nothing but regime change will be named and shamed by future historians.

  • 44
    rummel
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    If you think Abbott has a grin on face tonight just think of the smile on the Queensland Saint who was smacked down by Swan two months ago.

  • 45
    middle man
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    change or no change, the press are desperate to prove themselves right. neither option will gain improved coverage of policy. NOTHING will gain this govt any favourable coverage.

    its all over folks. find the keys to the bomb shelter… stock up on canned food items.

  • 46
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    bg

    Yes it matters. There are mobile only households. Unreachable by Newspoll.

  • 47
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Zoidlord,

    the narrowing was coming after christmas, it was coming after Rudd was seen off, it is comong after July… and what is there a widening back to where it was last year …. and btw … 16 months to the election unless the govt wants to go over the 3 years … can be done but not a good look.

  • 48
    Thomas Paine.
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord – you’re delusional.

    Coalition PRIMARY is above 50.

    They are all delusional. I expect they will keep on saying Gillard should stay PM even if the got to 15%

    And though Rudd is far more accepted than Gillard I think they poisoned that well so much it would be very difficult for him to come back. In other words, the Labor morons burned the only genuine option they had. Well done Crean, Swan, Gillard…way to lock the fire doors. The building is burning and the fire exits locked.

    Maybe they can ask Slipper and Wilkie to be PM and Deputy?

  • 49
    Compact Crank
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    @30 Confessions – disputes over wills are on about the same level as getting a Divorce. Should all MPs going through divorces stand down?

    Speed Camera fines are Traffic Offences but not the same as a Dangerous Driving charge.

  • 50
    confessions
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Right,lets all ignore what happened in NSW and QLD – nothing to see – State and Federal issues are seperate matters – good plicy work being done.

    In the early years of his govt, John Howard experiences heavy losses at the state level in many states.

    He claimed state and federal issues were separate matters. Was he wrong?

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...