Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition
Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
THIS IS DEFAMATION!
by ShowsOn on May 1, 2012 at 2:43 pm
heh heh.
by Scarpat on May 1, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Well, if there is any supporting evidence to come out, dah Poodle may cop a bit of a roasting when Parliament sits again.
by imacca on May 1, 2012 at 2:44 pm
ruawake@992
Excellent thought
by Schnappi on May 1, 2012 at 2:44 pm
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 2:44 pm
e 9.5% Newspoll refused or excluded figure is high, it is usually about 6%. I wonder if people are getting ru posted
Can you explain please ru,
by my say on May 1, 2012 at 2:45 pm
If you move in the ‘right’ circles you are au fait with consultants like McClellan
by IMOHO on May 1, 2012 at 2:45 pm
IMOHO, we all recognise that political opponents deserve to have literally anything at all said about them entirely irrespective of whether it’s true or not, but we do have a little thing called the laws of defamation to contend with.
by William Bowe on May 1, 2012 at 2:45 pm
How was this found out about pyne, only read bits and why now
by my say on May 1, 2012 at 2:46 pm
thanks for the link BH.
by middle man on May 1, 2012 at 2:46 pm
OMG, even the RBA seems to think affected and effected mean the same thing.
by ShowsOn on May 1, 2012 at 2:46 pm
So SMH has Interest Rates, Pyne “I have nothing to Hide” Comments and then Labor Leadership.
Well at least they got the order right this time.
by zoidlord on May 1, 2012 at 2:47 pm
If NewsLtd and their follower ABC have anything to do with it he will. Funny a few of us were tweeting Fairfax Journos yesterday asking if Vex News was getting the big scoop on Ashby. Speaking of that Vex is quiet today on Ashby
by mari on May 1, 2012 at 2:47 pm
William,
apologies
by IMOHO on May 1, 2012 at 2:47 pm
C@tmomma @ 940
You go girl
But, mark my words, doesn’t matter what you have to say, your experiences will be negated by the Life Member.
After all, he’s personally SEEN The Martyred working a room. W-o-w!
(Bob Hawke did the same – and when he was toppled – as a serving PM shock!! horror!!! – we trusted the caucus, and didn’t go into a massive sulk!).
by kezza2 on May 1, 2012 at 2:47 pm
According to the article there were three in the room so why not ask the third party what was said? Seems simple to me.
by davidwh on May 1, 2012 at 2:48 pm
janice2 @ 998
That’s OK young lady. I do read what others say, including those who think differently, and I weigh such opinions against my observations.
Only time will tell and I could be wrong. But I don’t think so.
That is a harsh interpretation. I have no idea of the extent of your knowledge of such things so wrapped my corrective comment in a bit of humour.
by bemused on May 1, 2012 at 2:48 pm
The awfulness of the latest Newspoll has really got us all going here! But I do think that what’s going on at senior levels of the Government is something like this. Julia Gillard is no fool, and the Labor Party has been her life. She has no intention of harming the party – she is no Kevin Rudd in other words. She knows the polls have to turn around for her to survive as PM until the election – not as much as 50/50 or better, probably around the 47/53 mark is her survival benchmark.
If she doesn’t get there, she will step down around September, to allow 10 months or so for a new PM to have a chance to turn things around. But by this time, if this scenario plays out, Labor will know its chances of winning are minimal and will be concentrating on shoring up a 55 seat presence in the next Parliament. Federally, Labor cannot risk a NSW or Queensland wipeout, and it needs to perform well enough to ensure no Coalition majority in the Senate, which remains a possibility in the event of a complete disaster. The focus will be on remaining in a competitive position for 2016, in the knowledge that an Abbott government will be a genuine one-term contender.
Gillard will not fight against this outcome. She is too pragmatic. She will retire quietly to the backbench and we will never hear from her again, sadly. Labor is not panicking, yet. It knows how toxic Abbott is. But if there is no improvement in the polls over the next 4 months, Gillard will go of her own accord. My bet is Albo to take over at that time, because he can hold on to the Indies, and take the fight to Abbott. For the period up to July 2013, politics will get a whole lot nastier. Rudd is now history – it is typical that the media is focused on the one person in Labor’s caucus who cannot be PM again. In this scenario, there may be other contenders, but don’t expect any real public brawling. The situation will be too dire by then for anyone in Labor to risk it. Expect a very smooth transition.
by Outsider on May 1, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Halff a per ent, gee us pensioners will soon be on all poridge
No wonder we are not spending
by my say on May 1, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Coorey just retweeted the SMH article.
I think fairfax are fairly chuffed about their scoop.
But who was leaking against Pyne. Two sources.
Someone from Slipper’s Office or a lib with a grudge?
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 2:49 pm
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 2:50 pm
ShowOn@1000,
THIS IS DEFAMATION
Something I would be happy to be sued for,just so it would get the publicty it deserves.
by Schnappi on May 1, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Good 50bp cut, good for govt, good for exchange rate which will drop. More cuts to come, too.
Hand wringing over Budget surplus not needed. Modest surplus but with NBN ramping up (finally!) and extra stimulus from tripling of tax free threshold will see economy, jobs both grow.
Take that, monkey man!
And love the Whine & Ashby having drinky poos then Whyne ringing for Ashby’s number—intriguing, is the Slippergate blowback on monkey man already happening?
by political animal on May 1, 2012 at 2:51 pm
NEVER DO IT AGAIN!
by ShowsOn on May 1, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Albo????
by middle man on May 1, 2012 at 2:52 pm
leone
Posted Tuesday, May 1, 2012 at 2:42 pm | Permalink
A bit of information about Anthony McClellan, self-confessed supporter of cheque-book journalism.
http://www.amcmedia.com.au/page8.htm
Thanks for that Leone
by mari on May 1, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Kiddiwinks time and time to pop into my local member’s office for a chat with friends.
by C@tmomma on May 1, 2012 at 2:52 pm
starting to unravel
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pyne-confirms-i-had-drinks-with-slippers-accuser-20120501-1xweb.html
apparently more to come
by Lyne Lady on May 1, 2012 at 2:52 pm
The ALP need to springboard off the RBA’s announcement today and position it in the context of balance about the two speed economy and how what the Liberals are proposing would be economic suicide.
This is a winnable argument if the parliament goes the full term
by spur212 on May 1, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Outsider @ 1017
Are you Tim Mathieson? Or are you just guessing all that?
by bemused on May 1, 2012 at 2:53 pm
It will be a test of credibility & fairness of the #MSMhacks & #TheirABC in how they report Poodle Pyne drinkie bombshell with Ashby
by The Finnigans on May 1, 2012 at 2:53 pm
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 2:53 pm
What will Swan’s take home message be and what will be the story that carries it?
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Bemused @ 1016,
Bullshite if I may say so.
by janice2 on May 1, 2012 at 2:55 pm
I really hope that there is substance to the Pyne story becasue he is a snivelly spineless little so and so.
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 2:56 pm
I doubt it will be this from the Domain website
by shellbell on May 1, 2012 at 2:56 pm
janice2 @ 1033
Say (and think) whatever you wish.
by bemused on May 1, 2012 at 2:57 pm
(Posted Tuesday, May 1, 2012 at 1:44 pm | Permalink
Just catching up. So the quote from Van Onselan was just a tease?)
Last night thought so, and did ask william to commnt if he thought his profession
Should be commenti g llke this on twitter
by my say on May 1, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Outsider,
Very rational argument and I agree, albeit extremely reluctantly and sadly, with you, except for Julia going to the backbench and never being heard from again.
There will be no shame or disgrace attached to her if she did take that course. She could well still be eligible to be Dep. PM or a Minister in almost any other portfolio, as a valued contributor.
by IMOHO on May 1, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Swan Freudian slip talking about banks almost said brats.
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 2:58 pm
The interest rate will always lower under LABOR’s BISONs #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 1, 2012 at 2:59 pm
outsider
Very interesting!
If what you describe was to happen I think Albo would be a good fit. He is a street fighter at heart.
by MTBW on May 1, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Pyne & Ashby.
As Ian Fleming said: “Nothing propinks like propinquity.”
by This little black duck on May 1, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Why anyone thinks that a change of leader will solve all of Labor’s electoral problems is beyond me.
by Gary on May 1, 2012 at 3:02 pm
As night follows day, the Coalition will say that interest rates are now too low.
by Bushfire Bill on May 1, 2012 at 3:02 pm
0.5% off interest rates – that’s pure “they pooched the call last time” territory.
I still don’t know what they were thinking last month to hold interest rates steady…
I kind of think the RBA has gone a little too hawkish on inflation – inflation is obviously important to control, but that was getting ridiculous – the risks for the economy have been on the down side for months now.
by Jackol on May 1, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Hi bludgers
.50% cut. I finally got something right.
So who dobbed on Pyne? The other staffer in the room?
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 3:03 pm
6AM in Blighty. Hanging out for the Phone hacking report.
by This little black duck on May 1, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Liar.
It was her and her supporters that spent a year undermining Rudd (and thus the party) in order to knife him at the first available opportunity. That undermining and the knifing is the total reason we are where we are today.
Gillard and her group had no concern about damaging the party when it suited their ulterior intentions.
And who was that straight after backstabbing Rudd then set about more programmed character assasination.
It wasn’t Rudd setting about to harm the party but Gillard and her promoters. AND when they had the opportunity to let Labor recover they instead slagged him again and again in order to protect gillard, and poison Rudd’s well. How much harm did that do to the party.
The entire harm done to the party is totally to do with the smearing before and after of Rudd and the knifing of a first term PM for no reason.
You are right, she is no Kevin Rudd. She is the installed seat warmer for the factional power brokers who gave and give little thought to the prospects of Labor if they conflict with their own desires.
Gillard is exactly why Labor is heading down the toilet bowl. You slagging Rudd because he still is far more preferred to the failed Gilard will not changes facts. Live with it.
by Thomas Paine. on May 1, 2012 at 3:04 pm
I hope the more to come bit regarding Slipper affair is the SMH catching Steve Lewis with his pants down. Not necessarily literally.
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 3:04 pm