Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition
Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BH
I dont want to get into leadership speculation, it is doing my head in. But again, my feeling is if there is a change, will be someone totally new
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:35 am
victoria,
With Utegate the ALP made it public there was something suss, handed over to the AFP and went silent. What they do next in this case will be interesting.
by Space Kidette on May 2, 2012 at 11:35 am
davidwh, do you really believe no Liberal had anything to do with Ashby coming forward?
by Gary on May 2, 2012 at 11:36 am
[vexnews WA Nat Tony Crook says the Coalition cannot count on succeeding with a no-confidence motion #auspol bit.ly/K6dFR1 [$] or pg 5 in AFR
20 minutes ago]
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:36 am
Where is Steve Lewis? I thought he’d be all over the Pyne story like a rash. Oh I forgot, Pyne is a member of the Liberal Party.
by enjaybee on May 2, 2012 at 11:36 am
@TP/2739
Everyone lies in politics at some point – get over it.
by zoidlord on May 2, 2012 at 11:37 am
SK
JG is generally cautious. That is why I am hoping they have more on this, and not just calling a bluff
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:37 am
lizzie – Fran Kellywith Grattan this morning knew she had to mention Pyne but then said to Grattan ‘So what, Michelle …. he’s the MoOB..” at that point I knew Pyne was not going to get any problems from the either of them and he didn’t. A quick mention, over and done with.
by BH on May 2, 2012 at 11:38 am
Perhaps it’s just personal with Pyne and this is some form of payback by Labor? There may be legitimate personal reasons why Pyne asked for phone number and e-mail and he doesn’t want to make it public. Labor needs to have more than what has been disclosed to date.
by davidwh on May 2, 2012 at 11:38 am
Gary @ 2748
I remember. So 21 or more have to wake up to reality. Probably close to that already.
by bemused on May 2, 2012 at 11:38 am
BH
When has the msm ever broken a real story in the past two years. Lewis got the big story on Slipper because drum roll……………………they created it!!!!
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:39 am
Victoria
Even if they don’t know more, why is it a gamble?
This is what the ALP has had to live with since 2007.
Just plodding along hoping that the Coalition idiots will expose themselves isn’t going to cut it.
We’ve been demanding they fight back.
by Dee on May 2, 2012 at 11:40 am
Labor’s problems are not all JG. Change leader and the problems remain in fact you could argue they multiply.
BTW, such a large change in numbers has never happened before.
Your reality is obviously out of step with the Labor caucus.
by Gary on May 2, 2012 at 11:41 am
The one simple question at the centre of all this is
Why did Pyne want the personal phone contact for Ashby ?
Any work related matters could be conducted face to face or by Pyne ringing Ashby at the Speakers office.
I am not going to speculate but that is the question Mr Pyne will be faced with.
by Doyley on May 2, 2012 at 11:41 am
Dee, trying to smear with wishful thinking took away any goodwill QLD had with Anna Bligh.
It cost her 10-20 seats.
by bluegreen on May 2, 2012 at 11:41 am
Gary 2752 I don’t believe I have said that. I did say that if the claims against Slipper have substance it wont matter much in the public domain if they did.
by davidwh on May 2, 2012 at 11:42 am
Dee
Because in the current climate, it will look as if the govt is grasping at straws. I really believe they need to have something more.
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:43 am
Vic, there will be NO change in leadership. So stop the speculation.
by The Finnigans on May 2, 2012 at 11:43 am
bluegreen
No need to look far for emotion if you think of all the creatures that have died through habitat loss
by lizzie on May 2, 2012 at 11:43 am
Dee
As I said earlier, the PM used dark clouds and a line being crossed in her pressers on Sunday and Morning. The journos thought it was stupid terminology. It had a meaning
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:44 am
I didn’t say you did. I’m just asking for your opinion. I for one smell a rat. Just in the timing and now in hearing of Pyne’s somewhat iffy explanations.
by Gary on May 2, 2012 at 11:44 am
TP
If is all you have. If my Aunt ….. you know the rest.
by muttleymcgee on May 2, 2012 at 11:45 am
That leaves me alternating between angry and numb.
by bluegreen on May 2, 2012 at 11:45 am
The Finns
It is not me speculating. It is the msm and bludgers here. I dont want to hear another word on it personally. I am sick of it.
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:45 am
by lizzie on May 2, 2012 at 11:45 am
Wow RT BRISBANE BUZZES: Was James Ashby paid $50,000 to make his sexual harassment complaint against Slipper? #auspol http://vexne.ws/ashby50k
by The Finnigans on May 2, 2012 at 11:46 am
Totally amazed at all the talk about Rudd in here for last 24 hours,it is a media beat up,and libs try to keep it going,what was the vote 71-31,rudd was thrashed,labor party should come out abd say it is a media beat which is spart of regime change and flog the PM any which way but loose, to take from a clint eastwoood film.
Soon as labor had the slipper thing out came leadership change from La Stupenda,and that is all it is,La Stupid.
by Schnappi on May 2, 2012 at 11:46 am
This makes you wonder.
by Gary on May 2, 2012 at 11:46 am
Gary I think I said earlier that I wouldn’t be surprised if someone in the Libs has helped Ashby and there is nothing necessarily wrong with that if the claims are genuine and the help wasn’t to fabricate evidence. It may be ethically suspect but that’s the unfortunate state of politics generally.
by davidwh on May 2, 2012 at 11:48 am
Gary
I have just had a thought. Maybe Ashby is a double agent!!!!! I have watched too many movies me thinks.
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:48 am
BG
And sitting back while the opposition slings baseless allegations, smear etc, splattering the ALP with mud hoping that people will come to their senses isn’t going to work either.
The ALP have been playing nice for far too long.
The out for Emerson is that Pyne by his own statements is contradictory. imo…Good enough to question what’s up?
by Dee on May 2, 2012 at 11:48 am
Dee
Pyne will need to state categorically a time line. If he lies, he will be caught out, and sometimes that is all that is required for your career to be finished.
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:50 am
Hmm. That rat is really starting to smell.
by Gary on May 2, 2012 at 11:51 am
anyhow bludgers I am off for the rest of the day, Enjoy they day!!
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:51 am
bluegreen
angry = hot and fiery
numb = grey and hopeless
Lots of potential there.
This is a tiny fragment I wrote last year.
by lizzie on May 2, 2012 at 11:51 am
One may have thought that now Mr Rudd has the support of John Howard that that would be the end of any comeback talk.
by hugh moran on May 2, 2012 at 11:51 am
Yes question, but don’t cry conspiracy without evidence.
by bluegreen on May 2, 2012 at 11:52 am
I was serious when I said this may be the end of Pyne’s political career. It appears he lied about details with Ashby. The reasons do not matter. Innocent or not Pyne is successfully smeared. Why? His party decided to abandon ethics and integrity and go the low road to get into office.
No policies to sell.
by guytaur on May 2, 2012 at 11:52 am
SK – I can’t remember if you were on PB when this story broke but Bludgers had it worked out as suss with Lib involvement by 6.15 pm that evening., just a few short hours afterwards. The press was still banging on about Rudd being and Swan being guilty for days longer.
by BH on May 2, 2012 at 11:53 am
by Dee on May 2, 2012 at 11:53 am
Asbhy says on Twitter: “No external party is paying for my legal or media relations fees”.
Now that’s a strange term to use “external parties”.
He doesn’t say “third parties”, far more common usage.
Why does Ashby not just say “I am paying all my own fees”. Curious.
by roaldan1000 on May 2, 2012 at 11:53 am
With regard to a change in leadership the one thing that everyone seems to forget or overlook is that the agreement made with the independents and I presume Bandt, was made with Julia Gillard. Should she be replaced that agreement presumably would no longer be of any effect and that would probably mean the end of the government.
by enjaybee on May 2, 2012 at 11:55 am
A cover up can be as damaging, if not more so, than the truth.
by Gary on May 2, 2012 at 11:55 am
roaldan,
Because he isn’t and it would be a lie. But interestingly it doesn’t say his lawyer is doing it pro bono either.
by Space Kidette on May 2, 2012 at 11:56 am
@bluegreen/2786
You mean the same conspiracy from the Coalition attacking Slipper and Thompson ?
Yeah sure whatever…
by zoidlord on May 2, 2012 at 11:57 am
Because chances are he is not. Most likely Harmers are taking the case on no win no fee because of the profile it creates for its practice
by shellbell on May 2, 2012 at 11:57 am
If the Libs needed a “honey trap” to entice Ashby then I guess Pynes the man.
by PoK on May 2, 2012 at 11:58 am
enjaybee, Bandt and the independents would probably just renogotiate a better deal for themselves out of the leadership change.
Constitutionally, however, would the GG swear in the new leader of the ALP as PM, or would they first need to satisfy the GG they still had the confidence of the HoR? If the latter, it might be unseemly for the country to be without a PM for the time it took to satisfy the GG of confidence.
by ltep on May 2, 2012 at 11:58 am
susanw – they can’t ask the right questions because their editors don’t want to hear the answers. The journos know the story they have to take back – the agenda is set for them. It hopefully irks the goods ones but even Tingle on Sky yesterday afternoon was supporting Pyne to the hilt. She didn’t look comfortable but I reckon she knew what she had to say.
Her comments yesterday were interesting in view of her article last week where she intimated that somebody else (Libs) had probably worked with AShby to get it out.
by BH on May 2, 2012 at 11:59 am
BG
I don’t see why there is so much angst over Emo questioning if there has been a cover up.
As for the evidence, when has that ever worried the Coalition?
by Dee on May 2, 2012 at 11:59 am