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Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition's two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for

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Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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6396 comments

6,396 thoughts on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

  1. [I won’t be watching as, last night, some bastard here – I think it was BH or BK something “B” anyway) – pointed me to the excellent 1977 series The Secret War.]

    Hello mate , could you provide the link please . I remember this and would like to watch again. hope you are well:)

  2. [and I should have added that, despite hefty power price increases, our quarterly bills have gone DOWN.]

    Got a bill yesterday – for a longer than usual period – $100 LESS than previous bill.

  3. To everybody who followed and emails I received ,hope I was succesful in returning the follow,if not I will check them all later and rectify if I did not.

  4. fiona reynolds
    [BB – the 1977 series? Fantastic! When I am in funds I shall acquire the set. Btw, it was BK wot recommended it, I think.]
    Check out the series “World at War”. Magnificent. Similar vintage to the even more magnificent series by Jacob Bronowkski “The Ascent of Man”.

  5. [As for the BER, I was handing out for the Greens in Kevin Andrews’ electorate (yes, I know – risking life and limb) in 2010, and the very pleasant but somewhat thick Lib hander-outer looked around at all the construction activity (the polling booth was a Catholic primary school) and said, “Isn’t it wonderful to see all these new buildings after such a long time?”

    I restrained myself with some difficulty.]

    Goog grief, Fiona, you are a woman of great restraint. I would have been in like Flynn and ended up in trouble no doubt. What a cheek. At least the mob in this area acknowledged the School hall as a GFC benefit from Labor even tho they voted for the other side.

  6. [I won’t be watching as, last night, some bastard here – I think it was BH or BK something “B” anyway) – pointed me to the excellent 1977 series The Secret War.]

    Joe – it must have been the other ‘B’ of a Bludger. OH is into War stuff here, but not his Better Half (unless it’s the Swannies v Brissie) 🙂

  7. fiona

    re lowering power bills.

    I managed to get my last gas bill down by $9 over 2 months.
    (advised that rates would increase from Feb 1)

    Nevertheless, celebrated by getting two (2) suduko books (extreme level)
    Worth every cent.

    Just got the new bill – up by $9.

    Coincidence much?

  8. Got our solar power put on this week and going by the results so far on cloudy rainy days it will more than pay for itself in about 2/12 years.
    Very happy atm.
    A tip get the biggest system you can afford/fit on your roof, higher up front but pays off quicker.

  9. BH, when I said she was thick, I meant it – no idea about anything and, I suspect, unlikely to be convinced by such a whacko as moi. It wasn’t worth expending the energy – particularly as I had a 6 hour shift.

  10. mari

    There are some toes which are as safre as houses in Bluey’s rockpool. Rest assured, your toes belong to that category.

    Bluey lives for the day that a certain bebudgiesmuggled clown makes the mistake of invading Bluey’s space.

  11. I have only listened to the radio for a while today and all I listened to was bad government, poor single mothers ect.

  12. Not long since, watched SBS’s story of the building of the Islamic museum (Melbourne) with a $1.5 millionFed Gov grant, and 2 men who journeyed through the outback to piece together and publish the story of Islam in Australia, esp the Afghanis who built the Overland Telegraph Line.

    Though we’ve long honoured them in the history of Australia’s WW II’s Camel Corps (the memorial is in London in an Embankment Park near the War Offices in Whitehall – small, but beautifully sculpted) and in the name of our transcontinental rail line and tourist train, and I once saw an ?ABC doco on them, their history has been largely ignored. BTW there is supposed to have been a Muslim on the First Fleet; probably was since there were many Islamic “Blackamoor” servants (& slaves) in London.

    The singer once called Cat Stevens attended. The book’s called “Boundless Plains”

    It’s @ http://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/2230658482/Islamic-museum-receives-$1.5-million

    Book’s

  13. jenautho@r6352

    After the smart meter was installed I got a bill a month later for a bit over $100,that was 4 months ago,as my power company is only an online company I looked at account and there was a $281 dollar credit,so intrested in what the bill is for quarter ending 10 may,will be.

  14. Years ago, was handing out at a suburban by election.

    Swarms of people handing out HTVs. I found myself standing next to a Lib and some guy handing out for one of the fringe right wing groups (can’t remember whether it was Shooters or Pauline Hanson).

    He made a joke to the Lib (which I didn’t hear) and then turned to me, did a mock ‘whoops’ and said, “I guess that wasn’t very PC of me.”

    “Oh,” I said. “Do you mean you were being rude?”

    He went bright red.

  15. [Joe6pack
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink
    Got our solar power put on this week and going by the results so far on cloudy rainy days it will more than pay for itself in about 2/12 years.
    Very happy atm.
    A tip get the biggest system you can afford/fit on your roof, higher up front but pays off quicker.]

    You are such an enigma, jp6.

    Sounds like your system is operating as effectively as that of a friend of mine.

    True story.
    He had the 3.5kW system installed, and the electricians “turned it on” (whatever that means)
    Made his meter run backwards.
    Someone advised, later confirmed by his supply company, that he’d “cop it” and have to pay his usual bill because he’d activated said solar system without getting permission.

    So, he ran his air con night and day to use electricity. Trouble was, didn’t matter what he did, he couldn’t use any where near the amount his system was generating.

    The company was okay about. They only charged him $190 for the meter.

  16. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 7:25 pm | Permalink
    mari

    There are some toes which are as safre as houses in Bluey’s rockpool. Rest assured, your toes belong to that category.

    Bluey lives for the day that a certain bebudgiesmuggled clown makes the mistake of invading Bluey’s space.]

    I am greatly comforted by that fact. Wish Bluey had his home at Port Macquarie for the weekend as a certain bebudgiesnuggled clown might be fleeing from the intrepid journalists and the only way he can escape is to start swimming to NZ, on second thoughts don’t think we have any intrepid journos in Oz now

    Also was Pyne etc mentioned on any news tonight? I refure to watch but curiosity needs to be satisfied, although guess I know the answer

  17. Rommel, the ABC has not reported the latest developments in the Pyne Affair on any of its outlets or online, as far as I can tell from where I have looked and what people from other states are saying.

    Apparently every single ABC news editor in every state and every medium has decided this is not worth covering. Even The Australian has run it.

  18. fiona

    just the hot water system.

    it is very hot
    like scalding when doing the dishes
    and from reading BB earlier today
    perhaps I should turn the thermostat down.

  19. Joe6pack@6359

    A tip get the biggest system you can afford/fit on your roof, higher up front but pays off quicker.

    Depends on which state you are in.

    If the feed-in tariff is greater than your usage tariff, then go big.

    If the feed-in tariff is lower than usage tariff, just try to match your own usage.

  20. Chicken shit Ted Baillieu has been asked 4 weeks in a row to appear on Stateline and talk to Josie…………..will not appear!!!!!

  21. [kezza2.
    You are such an enigma, jp6. I like that.

    Someone advised, later confirmed by his supply company, that he’d “cop it” and have to pay his usual bill because he’d activated said solar system without getting permission.]

    You must get the supply company in my case energex to come out to your house and do whatever they do . In my case put on a new meter and verify that the electricans work was up to standard. After that all is good but they must be the ones to verify everything.

  22. [ShiftyPhil
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
    Joe6pack@6359

    A tip get the biggest system you can afford/fit on your roof, higher up front but pays off quicker.

    Depends on which state you are in.

    If the feed-in tariff is greater than your usage tariff, then go big.

    If the feed-in tariff is lower than usage tariff, just try to match your own usage.]
    Baillieu govt legislated a 25c tariff from Jan 1, 2012, down from 60c
    By the time my friend was “allowed” his system, a week after his quarterly bill was due (and 2 weeks after he had the system installed) he was $10 in credit (and he didn’t have to pay the quarterly bill) although they hit him $190 for the meter.

    He’s looking pretty pretty in the longterm!

  23. [Hello mate , could you provide the link please . I remember this and would like to watch again. hope you are well:)]

    This is then DVD reference The Secret War 3 DVDs WWII Weaponry TV Series All 6 Episodes In case you want to buy it.

    No indication of Regions; but it will give you a lead to details & price. Our copy is/was on videotape. From memory, we bought it at Greenwich Naval museum, so the war museum bookshops might be worth checking.

    [VOLUME 1
    Epi. 1: The Battle of the Beams (Nighttime Aircraft Guidance) | Epi. 2: To See For A Hundred Miles (Radar)

    VOLUME 2
    Epi. 3: Terror Weapons (The V-1 and V-2) | Epi. 4: If… (Experimental Weapons, Jet Planes, Rocket Planes, Helicopters, SAM Missiles, Guided Missiles, Panjandrum, Etc.)

    VOLUME 3
    Epi. 5: The Deadly Waves (Magnetic Mines) | Epi. 6: Still Secret (The Enigma Code and Project Ultra) (Note: It was this historic episode that helped to finally tear down the veil of secrecy over Project Ultra 23 years after the end of the war!]

  24. (sigh) – I wish publicists could get it right: 33 years after the end of the war.

    Thank you for the link, OPT – I will invest in a copy soonish.

  25. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
    The ABC will not run the Brough story until AAP shove it up their news feed.]
    And when will that happen , the 12th Day of Never?

  26. [Love it!

    Swans own leaks taking the focus of Pyne lol. Can’t this government get anything right?]
    You are desperate.

  27. Thieves broke into my garage on the weekend, but it was nothing compared tothis. What an absolute disgrace.

    I am packing my family up and getting out of Sydney.

  28. drake
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 8:36 pm | Permalink
    Thieves broke into my garage on the weekend, but it was nothing compared tothis. What an absolute disgrace.

    I am packing my family up and getting out of Sydney. That is disgusting come up to the beautiful Mid north coast

  29. [A Sunshine Coast LNP member has told the National Times that James Hunter Ashby met with Mr Slipper’s long-time political rival and former Howard Cabinet minister Mal Brough on the Sunshine Coast in early April when he was still working as Mr Slipper’s press secretary

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/brough-met-slippers-accuser-claim-20120504-1y3b6.html#ixzz1tsEVCeqm%5D

    This just keeps getting better and better. Now the guy who stands to benefit from Slipper’s political demise is meeting with Slipper’s accuser, and days before the accusations are made.

    How long before the lid blows-off this whole stinking story?

  30. Hi Bludgers,

    Can you please throw a few scraps into my begging bowl, I have just been to the Carbon Price estimator and it seems that I will be paying about $10 per week and not receiving any compensation. If you can’t help me it may mean me selling myself in one of the many establishments in Fyshwick.

    I’m on a pretty good income, not rich but live comfortably $10 is less than I spend on magazines a week, what are people worried about, if that is all I am paying how little are people on the average wage costs going to increase, and these are the ones ringing up the radio stations.

  31. Highly amused at how News Ltd is covering Crook formally joining the Coalition.

    So meaningless but I bet you’ll read commentary like “this is a mortal blow to Labor” or “there are three key themes underlying Tony Crook formally joining the Coalition” … and so on

  32. http://www.theage.com.au/national/million-families-to-get-school-cash-boost-20120505-1y64a.html
    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard has decided to axe the education tax rebate and replace it with direct cash payments, after more than 600,000 eligible families failed to claim $400 million in rebates in 2010/11.]
    Compare:

    31 May 2010 – Media Release – The Australia Institute:
    [Thousands of Australians, including carers and the recently bereaved, are missing out on assistance worth $623 million because the government does not actively promote awareness of such entitlements.

    A new analysis by The Australia Institute, Missing out: Unclaimed government assistance and concession benefits, reveals that across just four Centrelink payments – Parenting Payment, Carer Allowance, Disability Support Pension and Bereavement Allowance – more than 168,000 Australians are likely to be missing out on government assistance they are entitled to.

    The main reason for this is a lack of awareness of available support and knowing how to access such help. Unlike the Tax Office which will pursue unpaid tax, or Centrelink seeking to recover any money that may have been incorrectly paid because of a change in personal circumstances, there is no obligation on Centrelink to pursue people who are eligible for payments but may not be aware.]

    18 April 2012 – The Australia Institute: https://www.tai.org.au/index.php?q=node%2F19&pubid=988&act=display
    [The Australia Institute analysed the Centrelink administered Parenting Payment in order to estimate how many people may be missing out on assistance payments. It was found that in 2008-09 an estimated 113,176 Australian families missed out on assistance for which they appeared to qualify for. The mean value of the estimated payment being missed was $206.63 a week, which potentially adds up to $46.8 million in fortnightly payments, or $1,216 million per annum being missed, should these families have been eligible for the payment for the whole year. This estimate means that for every four recipients of the Parenting Payment one family appears to have been missing out.

    In 2009-10 data-matching by Centrelink found that in nine per cent of the cases reviewed there was some level of overpayment. In contrast, convictions for fraud represent less than 0.1 per cent of all cases reviewed by Centrelink. This small number demonstrates just how populist rhetoric about ‘welfare cheats’ actually is. Interestingly, this paper finds that the number of people estimated to be missing out on assistance payments is greater than the number of people committing welfare fraud and is closer to the number receiving an overpayment. For example it was found that a similar proportion of parents who do not report receiving Parenting Payment appear to be eligible for payment to those identified as receiving an overpayment.]