Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition
Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
CLIVE FOR CANBERRA!
If Campbell Newman could lead the Queensland LNP from outside parliament, there is no reason why Clive Palmer cannot lead the Federal Liberal Party from outside parliament.
A grassroots campaign initiated by Alan Jones and Ray Hadley is needed now!
by citizen on May 1, 2012 at 9:06 am
Bernard Keane quoted on 702. He is not going to be reading coverage of the Media Convergence Review because it will be biased.
Congratulations Mr Keane. This is something other journalists should learn from.
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 9:08 am
Boerwar,
Definitely, and I was there last night. The hubris was so thick you could’ve choked on it. I hope the libs do.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 1, 2012 at 9:08 am
Morning bludgers
Only here for short while have a busy day. I was thinking 60/40 after the last fortnight from hell. Not far off the mark unfortunately. What to do? Govt need to ignore all the msm noise and continue with the job of governing. Abbott proof all the reforms. After all, that is what the objective is
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 9:11 am
Gaytuar
U put it so well ‘your 315
I dont i tend reading any analysis, but was there any questions re policy,
Ect or just this weeks events
I have not looked, so i may be wrong, if there is no solid questions re policy
,and some positive questions
Why post the above. Are there questions about ndis, the coming budget, the extra re pension
At all
I would like williams opinion.
by my say on May 1, 2012 at 9:11 am
Dovif
Thats why it has almost the BEST ECONOMY in the Western world.
Some people including the Australian public are STUPID!. ( Ignorant).
As I have said before stop ringing OLD fuddy duddies on FIXED lines and ring MOBILES they are not suffering from Dementia!.
by 1934pc on May 1, 2012 at 9:17 am
I remember saying this at the time. Effectively the ALP were saying to the public, you were stupid for wanting Rudd last time, we saved you from him, and you are stupid for wanting him now.
It appears inevitable that Rudd will be back now. But perhaps too late.
http://www.dailyadvertiser.com.au/news/national/national/general/party-in-hell-may-find-there-is-no-kevin/2539835.aspx
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 9:17 am
I think if you going to focus on incompetence you should look at Abbott’s incompetence as it will continue into Government if he becomes PM.
Yes ALL PM’s display incompetence, but Labor is rolling out policies and infrastructure.
by zoidlord on May 1, 2012 at 9:18 am
Yep calling the public stupid is a standard politcal strategy. Are we back on the mobile v fixed line thing again. i thought we resolved that last night.
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 9:19 am
Victoria
It has nothing to do with the gov.
Its because of media talk , ‘they dont do policy anymore
So itsonly the switched on people who read internet news
But what about the forgotten people with only mobiles
Also in have never been polled in franklin,
Other members of the family in other electorates hvw never had a new poll call
I wish people could just see this,
If policy not gossip was the focas somewhere all this would be brushed aside,
I remember when howard had to demote aew ministers in his first term
I wish some one could dig up headlines of tht time,
by my say on May 1, 2012 at 9:19 am
BH
There’s absolutely no point the govt going the msm about anything.
(apart from legislating he he)
JG’s already told them to not write crap.
She alluded to groupthink at the presser re Slipper and Thomson.
They hate her for it.
The scream blue murder.
The political journos have glass jaws.
Defensiveness is appearing in their opinion pieces all over the place.
One example.
Lenore Taylor the other day:
Based on ONE farmer from Orange (Taylor accompanied Milne on a little country mini-tour out that way) saying that his daughter was now an ex-Labor voter, Taylor eclaims categorically that Labor is dead. Further into the article she writes wtte “insert media bias rant here”
So, to me, it is better that the Tony Windsors of this world deride the press – and he can do it in such a way as to lasso Abbott at the same time without offending the gallery (they’re so stoopid they don’t even realise he’s aiming his slingshot directly at them).
We’ll get there.
After all the shit thrown so far, after all the allegations, all the so-called mishaps, the so-called bad judgements, when all was done and dusted, the dopey gallery finally worked out that the numbers on the floor hadn’t changed!
by kezza2 on May 1, 2012 at 9:20 am
Yep, the ALP is handing Abbott a blabk cheque to carry out his incompentent ways for all of us.
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 9:20 am
Good Morning Bludgers,
I have been enjoying a quiet cup of coffee in my first hours of a news media-free May. I have to say it is pretty calming. Especially considering my last media intake was Mr Windsor putting my world back into perspective.
Join me. It is very peaceful.
by Space Kidette on May 1, 2012 at 9:22 am
But when every NewsLtd poll takes place after an almighty NewsLtd anti-Gillard, anti-Gillard government beatup to drown out a positive decision – as in the lead-up to the latest. when the government’s well deserved kudos for Aged Care Reform disappeared under the avalanche of Ashby’s legal action against Slipper – THAT is a media conspiracy!
Do I have any evidence to support that statement? Why, yes! The last year or more’s evidence of Murdoch media’s corruption and destruction in the UK: evidence of the way NewsIntel advanced the stature of those Murdoch approved (Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron); and destroyed those he didn’t want (Neil Kinnock) or wanted removed (John Major, Gordon Brown). UK nonMurdoch media has had great fun publishing front pages of past NewsIntel papers to illustrate evidence being given to the several Inquiries into NewsIntel’s criminal behaviour.
BTW: PBers might like to re-/read VEXNEWS’s article of 26 April 2012 MONEY POLITICS: Mal Brough accused of “inducing” council candidate not to run, especially
and this comment:
Slipper believes that incident was all about installing the Liberals’ chosen candidate as Mayor – and that was before he was whacked with the next exciting episode!
New media regulations can’t come fast enough. Get a move on, Conroy. Get them legislated before 1 July 2012!
by OzPol Tragic on May 1, 2012 at 9:22 am
Morning Bludgers.
Good post at 277 Meher Baba. Pretty-well sums up my own thoughts about Rudd and the leadership issue.
Any change at ths stage would be suicide.
As for the MSM regime change campaign, I don’t believe they’ll get their way. We’ve gone from hearing ‘there will be a challenge….’ to ‘there must be a challenge….’ from these bozos over the last few weeks.
It’s a subtle but important shift.
They’re now unashamedly pushing the barrow in a way I’ve never quite seen before. Suddenly they seriously think they’re players. And the regime change they seek is not Gillard to Rudd, but Gillard to Abbott.
I think you’re right and that caucus won’t have a bar of it. They know Rudd. They’ve worked with him. They also know that there’s not a media outlet in the country that would p*ss on the Labor Party to put it out if it was burning at their feet. They’re acutely aware that Labor had no friends in the MSM and that the current bullsh*t is all about getting Tony into the lodge before the NBN, the MRRT and the rest of the Government’s policies do too much damage to Murdoch, the Mining Billionaires and the other vested interests standing behind the Tories.
So why the Hell do these bozos think that the backbench will listen to a word they say?
by smithe on May 1, 2012 at 9:23 am
bg
You never acknowledge that difference between landline and mobile only households.
Its called information.
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 9:23 am
Grattan said this morning that the Budget will make no difference to Labor no matter what.
Riley now saying on 702 the same thing – let’s count how many journos say the same thing. Sounds like there will be no intention of putting anything out that may be positive.
by BH on May 1, 2012 at 9:24 am
my say
I have never been polled either. But the public are supporting the coaltion. why? Their leader is as unpopular as JG. It then translates that they prefer the coalition. On what basis? Their policies? I have absolutely no idea. I have yet to see a headline in our papers over the past few years reporting on a policy initiative. It is all sideshow stuff. The ABC yesrerday could Not show then PM live at the rally. It was shown hours later. Why? They were able to show Abbott in Perth. It is a sad state of affairs. Will there be a circuitbreaker? We shall have to wait and see
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 9:24 am
I wish people could just see this,
ps ii mean iif only policies where discussed in the media, i doubt you would see thse polls, most people dont know about ndis, , compensation, ect.
We just have to let other things unfold and be patient
Off to do something productive
I suggest u all do
Frsnkly tge best thing u could do with this pol is not to discuss it
Leave the board empty
by my say on May 1, 2012 at 9:24 am
SK
I will not be reading or listening to any msm. i already know what they are saying in advance. It is so predictable. In any case i have a very busy day to distract me.
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 9:27 am
I thought Vex was going to say more about the suggested funding of Ashby’s claim today?
by shellbell on May 1, 2012 at 9:28 am
bh
Proof positive the media is determined not to say anything good about the government.
Since when are budgets irrelevant?
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 9:30 am
Did you study statistics. Newspoll stratifies their sampling by age bracket. That means for every 1000 surveys they do they must ensure they get soem many people from 18-25 and 25-40 etc etc.
So that means that they are not sampling 15 old grannies instead of 15 18yo no-nothings.
So unless there is some strange factor that 18-25 yos who have landlines have a different political persuasion to 18-25s without landlines you are dreaming.
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 9:30 am
shellbell
So did I. Perhaps they have been threatened with court action
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 9:30 am
Mark Day of LimitedNoos doesn’t seem too worried because he said nothing will happen before the next election. He knows Abbott will never do anything about it.
by BH on May 1, 2012 at 9:31 am
http://
.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2012/apr/30/cameron-hunt-statement-politics-live
by my say on May 1, 2012 at 9:31 am
bg
Not dreaming. The statistics have been out for some time. Mobile only households are more likely to be internet households. That is information access. The age bracket is irrelevant.
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 9:32 am
= denial.
by Mod Lib on May 1, 2012 at 9:33 am
QUIZ.
When was this said? And to whom was it said?
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 9:33 am
When the polls are not looking good, it is hard to find some good news, but I will try without being self-delusional – as some here accuse PBers of being.
As well, I will try, for my own thinking, some other bits and pieces.
This will be long-winded!
*The current poll, of just over a 1000 people is not good, but it is just over 1000 people and as such, as a predictor about as good as chook’s entrails. Taken with the trend, however, it is not pretty and for morale, if nothing else, it is an unhappy time.
*The Newspoll seems to get all the attention, but other polls, while not pretty for Labor, are more in the region of 55-45 but perversely the Newspoll is taken as “headline” despite being of such a small number.
*The theme of strong at the centre-weak-at-the-edges seems to be bearing some fruit, as next to nothing has been said of the relatively poor progress of the Victorian conservative government, which is within sight of being defeated just 12 months after the last poll. We don’t hear too much of this in the media.
*Gas prices have just been increased here in WA by some 8% on top of 15% last year while electricity costs have gone up 57% here. This is not going down well with the WA electorate, and combined with a rejuvenated Labor leader, Barnett’s re-election is by no means a certainty. Many people in WA feel the “mining boom” has done nothing for them.
*While most of the media are besotted with Julia Gillard, the context now is the “Gillard lead government” rather than “the Labor government” by most of the thoughtful commentators. They have tacitly admitted that this is not, despite all the efforts of Abbott and the conservatives, a “bad” government.
*Despite all efforts, and all other things being equal, even the most rabid conservative is talking about a “change of government in 16 months” so while the “election now” chant keeps up as a pressure point, the realist accept that it will be awhile before there might be a change of regime.
This is all to the good for Labor, as time is what is needed with two budgets and and election campaign to come. In the Oz tradition, it is not such a bad position to be in – underdog. Abbott runs the risk of outreaching even his absurd self.
*The Budget, will, in the next week or two, wipe most other news off the front page and will give time for that “clear air” to emerge. At least, this is the conventional wisdom and I am prepared to go with it.
*At this point, the Indies and Wilkie may recognise that should there be regime change come 2013, they may or may not be there and hence they have even more reason to see their particular legislative changes put in place.
If there is a predicted landslide, and I do not predict this yet, then any chance they have of advancing their agenda is gone for 3 if not 6 years.
*Despite all the “bad” news, the government, on a day-to-day basis is functioning well and this is very annoying to the conservatives.
*The Boats as an issue, which Labor could never win on, is now almost ignored.
I see some 160 people were on a boat just off Christmas Island and it warranted the smallest paragraph in the West, on page 8, you could ever see. A bit like the bombings in Iraq – big news when our troops are there, but when 50 or 100 killed in Iraq now, by a bomb, who in Oz now gives a stuff?
*The MRRT, despite all the opposition frmm the miners is basically accepted as a good idea by the electorate. A case of Labor being right again, but costing heaps of political capital to get it up.
*There is a range of other legislation that the government has passed which should form the foundation of its claim for government again in 2013 – against the empty cupboard of the LOTO.
Now to the “what to do” bit………………
*I am not sure in my own mind why Labor is nominally, “unpopular”. Logically, it has to be either one of the leader, the policies or a combination of both.
My guess at the moment, at it pains me to say this, is that despite many recognising the skills of the PM, she just is not popular with a slab of the electorate. Doesn’t matter at this point, whether Abbott is popular or not.
Set aside the woman-hater nastiness and the fact that Oz is not coping well with minority government (winner-take-all being the preference), there seems a sense of disappointment in the electorate. Julia came in with a blaze of glory, the polls shot to the roof, and then…………….
My take is that many in the Oz electorate, and it has to be confronted, did not like the way Rudd was axed.
Regardless of the 100 reasons as to why he could/should have gone, the electorate, by and large, wanted the right to decided.
The Labor power brokers took this away from them. Who knows, perhaps he would have lost, but that is not the point now. Despite Labor’s narrow “win”, the taint of “legitimacy” has hung over JG ever since.
There is no doubt, at this point in time, the Carbon Tax, and I am not going to monkey round with semantics, is neither understood, nor wanted by many.
The so-called “lie” is a mantra that the conservatives come back to time and time again. The hypocrisy of what they are saying is lost on them, but no matter, it seems to work.
What to do………….?
Those who can decide have, I think, about 6 months up their sleeve.
*Decision 1 – Not to do anything and all and tough it out with the current leader and current policies until the election.
*Decision 2 – Change the leader
*Decision 3 – Change the policies
*Decision 4 – Change the leader and some policies
I do not have a clue, which, if any of these would restore Labor in the polls.
My gut reaction would be to stick with the PM – despite all – at least until September or October. Politics is a dirty business and JG know this. She came into office because “Labor had lost its way” and I guess she must be guided by her own set of values. She is a political animal and she would know, at what point, her leadership would cease to be effective.
Now, here I go out on a limb – if there should be a change – it can only be to Rudd.
I say this on the simple expediency that with both Rudd and Gillard sitting behind say a Shorten or a Smith, would give Abbott and the conservatives a field day of taunts about seeing not just one, but two PMs off.
Mind you, JG, might just say “Up yours” – but then I am told she is a fighter and I don’t know the woman at all.
It is not “the dying days of a government” as the conservatives would have it, but certainly, as was predicted, the ride is a rough one!
by Tricot on May 1, 2012 at 9:34 am
@bluegreen/361
So are you by letting Abbott becoming Leader of the Opposition.
So you are at fault too – the only people that can change Coalition Leaders are those members of the Coalition Party.
by zoidlord on May 1, 2012 at 9:34 am
And in the Queensland election recently did the mobile-only households forget to vote?
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 9:35 am
Interest rate announcement today. Either .50 or .75 points.
Low interest rates
Low unemployment
Genuine reforms and infrastructue
NBN, NDIS etc
If the govt can hang on for as long as possible. There is still a glimmer of hope
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 9:35 am
The closest to having an independent test of Newspoll methodology is to compare the last Newspolls taken just before elections. They are usually very, very close. In terms of statistical methodology, therefore, the Newspoll results are excellent.
The reality is that the Ms Gillard and the Government are thorougly on the nose with the majority of the electorate.
BTW, there does not seem to have been much of a media uproar about an ex-Howard staffer calling publicly for the Prime Minister to be kicked to death.
I guess it must be the new normal.
by Boerwar on May 1, 2012 at 9:37 am
Graeme Morris on now 702
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 9:39 am
Anyone going to tweet 702 to ask Mottram to query Morris on his ‘kick her to death’ comment?
by BH on May 1, 2012 at 9:39 am
No because discussion is all policy–free hubris.
But Abbott is not PM and will have to wait till late 2013 by which time things will be different. We leave you to your empty hubris. And enjoy Opposition.
by political animal on May 1, 2012 at 9:40 am
Boerwar
I accept the govt is on the nose. This is despite our good position economically and the reforms the govt is embarking on. I dont pretend to understand the general public. One part of me reckons they deserve Abbott, Barnaby, Palmer, Twiggy, Reinhart et al. Nothing like a good dose of medicine. Only problem with that, is i have to cop it too, and I really dont want the likes of Abbott, Barnaby, Clive etc running this nation.
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 9:41 am
I finally came across a use of ‘egregious’ in a place other than Poll Bludger. It was in one of Dorothy Sayer’s Inspector Dalgleish novels.
by Boerwar on May 1, 2012 at 9:41 am
It did. So far, only the twitter feed is updating. This tweet is a doozy
by OzPol Tragic on May 1, 2012 at 9:41 am
Good post at 312 BB, as usual.
How the Hell does any competent company lose a no-bid contract?
News is on the nose all over the world.
Isn’t it time we acted too?
by smithe on May 1, 2012 at 9:42 am
Catch you guys later.
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 9:42 am
Please Be Warned: More New all puffed up, rampaging BISONs are coming soon – http://twitpic.com/9fszkj/full #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 1, 2012 at 9:42 am
Yep, true. Except I was on team-Turnbull.
But the only way to a Turnbull leadership is to replace Gillard with Rudd, Rudd pulls ahead in polls and ABbott gets rolled.
It all begins with the ALP caucus.
by bluegreen on May 1, 2012 at 9:43 am
d Tuesday, May 1, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink
Good Morning Bludgers,
I have been enjoying a quiet cup of coffee in my first hours of a news media-free May. I have to say it is pretty calming. Especially considering my last media intake was Mr winsor join me sk posted
Agreed take sk advice, showw u take it with a grain of salt
I agree the bestthing to do
by my say on May 1, 2012 at 9:43 am
before i go
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 9:44 am
Hi Tricot at 379
Without necessarily agreeing 100%, I’d have to say you’ve fairly summarised my feeling as well.
If this poll isn’t an outlier then Federal Labor may well be moving into NSW/Qld Labor territory, that is, from months earlier, the election result was practically ordained despite whatever the government might do. Whether it changes the leader (NSW) or perseveres (Qld) federal Labor could be facing a horrible dilemma.
F
by Fil R on May 1, 2012 at 9:45 am
my say
We can talk about Media Convergence. This vex news story. Lots. No need to mention Fauxnewspoll.
by guytaur on May 1, 2012 at 9:46 am
Not sure if already linked
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/lilley-livered.html
by victoria on May 1, 2012 at 9:46 am
No, this would never work. The Opposition would have a field day saying that he was knifed once and will be knifed again. Although in a way it’d be good for him to be resurrected and then go down in a firey wreck. It’s probably the only way to get rid of him for good.
by ltep on May 1, 2012 at 9:46 am