Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition
Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Victoria
Correctamundo
by spur212 on May 2, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Allah’s gift to Al Qaeda, according to JWH.
by This little black duck on May 2, 2012 at 10:53 pm
spur212
The budget handed down by the Vic Libs yesterday was Just plain pathetic
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 10:54 pm
…and help them prop up the ALP.
by drake on May 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Dee @ 3752
“Except that Gillard went to an election in 2010 as the leader of the ALP in which the people did make a choice.
2010 election seems to be an inconvenient truth for some!”
You are right of course, but what is significant is not just what actually happened, but how it shaped people’s perceptions. Many voters felt after the 2007 election that they had chosen the government and the PM. Many voters felt after the 2010 election that the independents had chosen the government and the PM, and all the atmospherics of weeks of negotiations, Mr Oakeshott’s announcement etc. reinforced that feeling. That didn’t for one moment compromise Ms Gillard’s legal right to govern: what it did do was diminish her political authority (with the benefit of hindsight, quite considerably). It’s always hard when you are a minority government, but particularly hard when you had a majority and lost it. In that respect, Ms Gillard is in a much worse position than was Steve Bracks in his first term; she is perceived as having gone backwards – an almost-loser. He was perceived (with much the same numbers) as having nearly achieved a miraculous victory – an almost-winner.
by pedant on May 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Wasn’t today the day exactly a year ago Obama the leader of the terrorists captured Bin Laden?
Bloody Obama!
by Centre on May 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm
And people think Howard never made mistakes
by Tobe on May 2, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Centre
Yes. I got an email from the White House this morning. So was able to watch Live.
by guytaur on May 2, 2012 at 10:58 pm
I can’t think of a single thing to say to this. It speaks for itself.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm
itsthevibe @ 3893
Great post.
by bemused on May 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm
I think the problem with this interpretation is that if it happened, no way is it going to be presented as simply as that. Its much more likely to be seen as another symptom of ‘NSW disease’, with Abbott going on with self-congratulatory crap about having killed two PMs, and a bunch of people (who won’t say anything positive about JG while she’s still in office) mysteriously coming out and saying that there wasn’t sufficient reason to change PM, she should have been given more of a chance, we’re just going to see a return to Rudd’s lifetime working habits etc: Not to mention the terrible example it’d set for women in politics.
by rishane on May 2, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Victoria
http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/minister-breaks-ranks-20120502-1xzkx.html
They’re goners … Only took a little over a year
by spur212 on May 2, 2012 at 11:01 pm
The conspiracy of silence about Grahame ‘Kicker’ Morris
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/the-conspiracy-of-silence-about-kicker-morris/
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Puff,
That would be Damp Old Runt
by This little black duck on May 2, 2012 at 11:03 pm
victoria
It raises the question. Is Morris a friend of Murdoch?
by guytaur on May 2, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Duck,
How embarrassing it must now be for Howard to have made those absurd imputations.
by drake on May 2, 2012 at 11:03 pm
spot on rishane. the media will death ride any reversion back to Rudd as surely as they will continue to death ride Gillard. ALP are in a lose lose situation with this.
by middle man on May 2, 2012 at 11:04 pm
spur212
This Vic considered throwing in the towel, but he is still there.
I knew Ballieu and his crew woud be duds, but they have exceeded expectations.
Vic was a state on the go until this mob came along
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Puff
I wonder now if Colvin leaving is his idea or was he given the polite word to find another job.
by guytaur on May 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm
guytaur
All the fibs are friends of Murdoch
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Allan Asher was just on Lateline.
*Greens go quiet*
by drake on May 2, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Tony Deloy talking Hobbit problems.
by guytaur on May 2, 2012 at 11:06 pm
They might wait a week or two, but surely they’d return to it. I also add, I wouldn’t want someone with Rudd’s record of favouritism towards Murdoch back in power in a time like this.
by rishane on May 2, 2012 at 11:09 pm
unless JG quit and moved to siberia they’d be talking up instability and another challenge from her etc etc.
by middle man on May 2, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Who would have thunk that #Lateline didnt even touch on Poodle Pyne Ashby coverup and focus on HSU instead #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 2, 2012 at 11:11 pm
PTMD
@rupertmurdoch is a superb businessman and a world class CEO.He has built a tremendous empire and is certainly “fit” to run his corporation.\
Trump Your F#$k%%$# Fired.
by Schnappi on May 2, 2012 at 11:12 pm
victoria
Now we know what Alan Jones did wrong. Fail to Brown Nose Rupert
by guytaur on May 2, 2012 at 11:12 pm
HoC stuffs Murdochs seems to be very much background noise now, less than 24 hours later.
by This little black duck on May 2, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Robert Manne:
http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog-long-goodbye-explaining-gillard-s-collapse-robert-manne-4815
by Pegasus on May 2, 2012 at 11:15 pm
TLBD
i am pleased it lasted as long as it did. Limited really clamped the lid down. Proving for doubters why it is time to reform media.
by guytaur on May 2, 2012 at 11:15 pm
May it become a Chasm
http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/minister-breaks-ranks-20120502-1xzkx.html
by Schnappi on May 2, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Didnt watch it but from the promo, it looks rubbish anyway
by The Finnigans on May 2, 2012 at 11:16 pm
TLBD. i think eveyone is waiting for the real ramifications to be seen… they want to know the beast is dead before they get their photo taken with their head between its jaws.
by middle man on May 2, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Pegasus
Robert Manne voted for John Howard in 1996. I wouldn’t put too much faith in him
by spur212 on May 2, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Mm
I like the imagary.
by guytaur on May 2, 2012 at 11:18 pm
BTW
South Korea just passed an ETS into law with bipartisan support.
by bluegreen on May 2, 2012 at 11:19 pm
cheers.
by middle man on May 2, 2012 at 11:21 pm
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:22 pm
bg
Bipartisan? What does that mean…………….
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:23 pm
On a cheerful note:
Poll: Do you believe the Coalition has assisted former Slipper staffer James Ashby?
Yes 73%
No 19%
I don’t know 8%
Total 15,067
Good night, esp Night patrollers
by OzPol Tragic on May 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Night OPY. I too am calling it a night
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm
And Vic, the ruling party is basically conservative neoliberal free-markey sort of guys.
by bluegreen on May 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Tony Abbott has caught a particularly strange form of Tourette syndrome. Whenever he pops up in public he involuntarily emits versYou can search the BBC to find out more about her.ions of “government bad.”
The BBC, the other night, interviewed a wonderful woman with Tourette. The interview lasted for about 10 minutes and the word “biscuit” would pop out every 3 to 5 seconds. She also came out with “happy birthday” frequently. The great thing is that she could see the funny side of it and wanted other people to see the funny side of it too. She just shrugged her shoulders at people made it obvious that they thought she is weird. Big kudos to the lady.
by This little black duck on May 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Some characters got out of sequence in that comment but I’m sure you can work it out.
Firefox Beta, I think, is very sensitive to mouse movements or maybe it’s just me.
by This little black duck on May 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm
bg
Are you referring to Vic State Liberals?
by victoria on May 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm
We once had bipartisan support for the ETS… and as much as I liked Rudd at the time he was unfortunately more interested in retribution for Goodwin Grech.
by Tobe on May 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Regarding the Newman allegations the most telling point was when the CMC came out on the Thursday before the election and cleared Newman on all matters referred to them. I believe that was a calculated decision by a powerful body who were not impressed by being used for political reasons during an election campaign. The CMC is not a body who would lightly take such action at that time if they had any concerns regarding Newman.
It was that action along with the absurd claim by Bligh the day before linking an address of an accounting firm to Newman’s family that put the Labor strategy in tatters.
Back on current events if it comes out that the Slipper allegations are nothing more than a Liberal inspired fabrication then the Coalition will deserve to suffer the same electoral backlash suffered by QLD Labor. However I dont believe the Pyne revelations prove that yet.
In relation to Abbott’s outburst today I agree it was over-the-top but that’s Abbott.
by davidwh on May 2, 2012 at 11:30 pm
And what else is different about the South Korea scheme is that industry has actively campaigner against it, but because govts are being populist in bashing big business they dont want to be seen to be siding with industry.
by bluegreen on May 2, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Abbott is a complete embarrassment to the nation. That such a man should actually be LOTO and be ahead in the polls is a complete indictment to the bent moral compass of this country.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 2, 2012 at 11:31 pm
Well, given that popularity is a reflection of the populace, I’d look to them for the answer. One relevant question might be “Do you approve of the Gillard Government’s alliance with the Greens?”. Given that the overwhelming majority of the populace do not vote for the Greens, the answer might reasonably be expected to be “no”.
by drake on May 2, 2012 at 11:31 pm