Crikey



Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. mexicanbeemer
    After this lot I want a double brandy.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 3, 2012 at 1:12 am

  2. 4045

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Posted Thursday, May 3, 2012 at 1:08 am | Permalink

    This country cannot handle a woman PM.

    The blokes can get away with swimming drunk and naked astride donkeys in the public fountain after smashing up the bar, tipping over the fruit-stall and kicking the vicar up the kyber and that is just fine. A female PM so much as let’s her slip show a fraction of lace hem, takes a sip of sherry before 4pm or calls the postman Fred instead of Ned and she is pilloried in the town square.

    I see a mob of bloody PB hypocrites.

    Never were truer words spoken PTMD. In this males opinion anyway.

    by grey on May 3, 2012 at 1:13 am

  3. The voters in this great and wonderful country only remember who bribed them best or last. This is a population which gets access to buying cheap, safe, high quality groceries almost every waking hour of their lives and still whine about ‘doing it tough.’

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 3, 2012 at 1:17 am

  4. Thanks Grey.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 3, 2012 at 1:18 am

  5. Perhaps mexicanbeemer, and the Karma will work the same way, once the Carbon price is introduced, just like the GST, it won’t be so scary.

    by Tobe on May 3, 2012 at 1:19 am

  6. TLBD
    I agree. To be fair, I wasn’t thinking of the newbies.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 3, 2012 at 1:20 am

  7. Re Women in High Office in Oz
    _Puff__________________

    The sad truth is that all women in top political jobs in Oz have always ended with massive defeats
    I DID NOT say I agree with that…but facts are stubbon things and can’t be wished away
    That is how it in this country!
    I also notice that some of the harshest critics of women in office are actually women too…I have noticed on talk back a certain type..conservative…old woman… who is sometimes quite venonbous and almost toxic re Gillard why is that ?????????
    so much for the Sisterhood
    and remember Germaine Greer …of all people…joking about Julia Gillard’s clothing and the size of her bum…Greer?????????

    by deblonay on May 3, 2012 at 1:23 am

  8. Tobe yes that could well be the case and that is why I think the ALP needs to end all leadership talk, let interests rate fall, let the budget position improve then as you say let the carbon price changes come into effect then the polls may well level out remembering that Tone has a number of serious questions on his policies and those questions will get bigger when states like Victoria clearly need more federal assistance rather than less

    by mexicanbeemer on May 3, 2012 at 1:25 am

  9. Our msm has not reported it this way but I think the report of the Culture, Ethics and Sports Committee has signalled the beginning of the end for Mordor.

    Ofcom, on BSkyB, is next cab off the rank.

    I don’t know about anyone else but I judge the demise of two bottles of excellent red was a suitable accompaniment to watching two little words: “not fit”.

    by This little black duck on May 3, 2012 at 1:25 am

  10. mexiicanbeemer

    HoHo,the GST was a lie and only got passed as howard bribed meg lees ,costello said offer her $40 million,for her bribe,howard misundersttod and promised her $400 million for her constituents,the democrats are where now,without the bribeing the democrats we would not have a gst that charges a pensioner for a 42″ plasma that clive the cia plant only pays the same price.

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 1:26 am

  11. Yes it would be an interesting study of why are some women so aggressive towards Julia Gillard.

    I have heard some nasty comments from otherwise highly professional and successful women and as you point out they tend to be more in her age group.

    The younger ones do seem to be more supportive

    by mexicanbeemer on May 3, 2012 at 1:27 am

  12. No Tobe, the only thing that matters to me now is stopping the Coalition from winning a Senate majority. If they achieve that, then Labor may as well have never won government in the first place, such is the ferocity with which Abbott will demolish their legacy. Why would that be such a concern of mine if I didn’t care about policy?

    by itsthevibe on May 3, 2012 at 1:28 am

  13. MB,

    Then we are in complete agreement, ALP supporters still have plenty of time to give Gillard a go and stop the sniping…

    And for people who prefer Rudd. He needs no introduction to the electorate, why push for him now?

    by Tobe on May 3, 2012 at 1:30 am

  14. Schnappi Well in 1998 everyone knew when going to the polling booth that Howard would introduce one therefore it was not a lie.

    If he had run saying it would not happen then a week later introduced it then that would have been a lie.

    by mexicanbeemer on May 3, 2012 at 1:30 am

  15. With every passing day the older voters go to the Grey Havens and the (hopefully) well-informed teenagers become voters.

    by This little black duck on May 3, 2012 at 1:31 am

  16. No Tobe, the only thing that matters to me now is stopping the Coalition from winning a Senate majority. If they achieve that, then Labor may as well have never won government in the first place, such is the ferocity with which Abbott will demolish their legacy. Why would that be such a concern of mine if I didn’t care about policy?

    Because your attitude is endagering the government right now… just as the policy is about to come in…

    Give me the “I told you so” lecture at an appropriate time and I might listen.

    by Tobe on May 3, 2012 at 1:32 am

  17. As the media mob digest this ,just hope they do not choke

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/media-regulator-digests-murdoch-findings-20120502-1xzfk.html

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 1:33 am

  18. deblonay
    When I said this country, I didn’t mean half of it. Greer I do not understand. I was flabbergasted.

    The talk-back radio types are usually male-identified women (we have a few of those in our female journalistic ranks too). They support a ‘male’ view of the world because they have found their niche in it, and feel threatened if that world looks like changing.

    They also don’t see why other women can’t be content with that order of things. But they are usually happy if their own grand-daughters go to uni and became scientists . doctors or Liberal MP’s. That is probably because in the party with the ace misogynist as their leader, no woman will be a Liberal PM this side of hell freezing over.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 3, 2012 at 1:34 am

  19. mexicanbeemer,

    Well previously howard had said never never never would he introduce a GST,to me that is a bigger lie than than what abbott and the media potray as a carbon tax lie.

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 1:36 am

  20. TLBD
    When Leveson brings down his report, as my Mum won’t let alcohol into the house. I am going to book into an hotel, get a some good reds and sit back in peace to watch it all come down. It is not often you get virtual ringside seats to the death of tyranny.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 3, 2012 at 1:39 am

  21. Schnappi

    Julies comment six days out was basically the same as Howard’s never never comment,

    Howard at least went to the people before introducing the GST.

    Do I consider Julia Gillard a liar, no just as I didn’t consider Howard a liar in 1998

    by mexicanbeemer on May 3, 2012 at 1:40 am

  22. mexican beemer
    Howard got the gst as a bribe,as over 50% of the people voted NO,he got the seats ,but not the majority of people who voted agaiinst his lie and policy.

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 1:43 am

  23. Schnappi Well yeah he did not win the majority of the TPP but his party did win a majority of seats and that is how our parliament operates.

    by mexicanbeemer on May 3, 2012 at 1:47 am

  24. mexican beemer
    true but why try to say howard did not lie,and that was only one of them

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 1:50 am

  25. Anyway abbott is my worry as he lies everyday and is accepted by people I can no longer describe.

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 1:52 am

  26. Schnappi Well yeah he did not win the majority of the TPP but his party did win a majority of seats and that is how our parliament operates.

    And I accepted the result even though the Lib’s rarely led a poll and I should have spent the whole 3 years boorishly repeating…

    “Election Now”

    by Tobe on May 3, 2012 at 1:53 am

  27. Yes Tone and co should remember that if they can claim the 1998 result then they should accept the 2010 result rather than behaving like sore losers

    by mexicanbeemer on May 3, 2012 at 1:57 am

  28. mexicanbeemer@4076

    Fair comment.

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 2:01 am

  29. If a policy says that if you vote for me I will introduce a tax then he is elected and introduces that tax then that is not a lie.

    A person has the right to change their view, people change their minds everyday that does not make them a liar.

    A liar is someone that says one thing while knowing full well that the truth is something else, this is why I do not consider the PM to be a liar.

    If you want to call Howard a liar over workchoices then fine for he did say in 2004 that the I.R system was working and there was no need for any more major reform then turned around after the election and introduced the most radical I.R laws in over 100 years

    by mexicanbeemer on May 3, 2012 at 2:02 am

  30. mexicanbeemer

    support your fair comments ,but howards tampa affair was an inexcusable outright lie to deceive the people,.and could name others.

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 2:07 am

  31. Is this another disgusting murdoch paper??

    http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/international/the-fa-condemns-the-sun-as-unacceptable-over-roy-hodgson-frontpage-headline-7707163.html

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 2:13 am

  32. Another day finishes fo rme.

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 2:16 am

  33. The ALP policy at the last 2 elections was for an ETS with a 1 year fixed price (tax). The Greens insisted on the 3 year fixed price (tax) before moving to an ETS…

    I’m sure given their time over again even the Greens would have agreed on wording it all so it was an ETS with a floor price.

    In a nutshell, Gillard’s “lie” was a matter of semantics, but she was foolish to have made the comment, even though I wasn’t aware she had made it until after the deal with the Greens had been struck.

    by Tobe on May 3, 2012 at 2:16 am

  34. Morning (sorta, couldn’t sleep) All

    This is a HUGE boost for the government imo – sing it from the tree tops, tweet the whole day long

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-02/south-korean-parliament-approves-carbon-trading-system.html

    I especially like these bits

    South Korea approved a cap-and-trade system to cut carbon emissions as President Lee Myung Bak seeks support from factories and power plants in the fastest-growing producer of greenhouse gases among industrialized democracies.

    “The bill is needed to cope with global climate change and, domestically to reduce emissions of greenhouse gas efficiently,” Kim Jae Kyung, a member of the ruling New Frontier Party, said in the assembly’s plenary session before voting. The bill was passed in a 148-0 vote, with 3 abstentions.

    “Korea becomes an early adopter in Asia” of a cap-and- trade program, Kang Hee Chan, a senior researcher at the Korea Environment Institute, said by phone. “Korea joins Australia and China, which plan to introduce the program in 2015.”

    So with the world now moving quicker then ever towards a global, or at least regional, ETS do we turn the boat around and sail back to dock for who knows how long, or maintain clear wind towards the head of the fleet in the search for a cleaner future???

    That last bit is mine, I really need to go back to sleep as you can probably tell :)

    Nite All

    by womble on May 3, 2012 at 4:22 am

  35. Mexicanbeemer,

    Yes he lied over Workchoices but the GST should never have been called a lie and I do think the voters remember those day.

    How do you work out that the “never ever a GST” wasn’t a lie?

    Some people (usually Liberal spinners with a tenuous connection to truthfulness) try to rationalise it away by saying, “Well, he took it to an election”. That in itself ignores the series of events that make it clear it was a premeditated lie. It is important to grasp the series of events to see this.

    Let’s pick up on how it happened from Alan Ramsey, Sydney Morning Herald, 18 August 2004. It’s a longish quote (my apologies for that), but to get the sequence of events in their entirety, the quote really cannot be edited.

    ...How it happened, and how Howard ignored his pledge once he'd become prime minister, is open and shut. At a Sydney bankers' lunch, where he spoke about the Keating government's coming budget later that month, Howard referred briefly to John Hewson's losing GST policy in the 1993 election and how "nothing remotely resembling it" would be Coalition policy in the 1996 campaign.

    But when a businessman asked why, if a GST was so economically sound, Howard wouldn't again support it, he gave a long answer which included, in part: "... We would occasionally like to win, you know. The fact is the last election was a referendum on the GST. There is no way we can have it as part of our policy for the next election. As to what happens some years in the future, I don't know. But the GST cause was lost in the last election ..."

    Every news outlet ignored it except The Australian. It ran a single-column story on its front page next morning, saying Howard had "left open the possibility of the Coalition reconsidering a GST some years in the future". Howard panicked. He'd told the truth in answering the businessman's question. Now he felt he had to lie if he wasn't to sabotage, after 22 years in politics, his last opportunity to be prime minister.

    He issued a four-sentence statement saying, "Suggestions I have left open the possibility of a GST are completely wrong. A GST or anything resembling it is no longer Coalition policy. Nor will it be policy at any time in the future. It is completely off the political agenda in Australia." Later that day, confronted by a clamouring press pack, he compounded the lie. Asked if he'd "left the door open for a GST", Howard said: "No. There's no way a GST will ever be part of our policy."

    Q: "Never ever?" Howard: "Never ever. It's dead. It was killed by voters at the last election."

    Nothing equivocal about that. But 27 months later, in August 1997, less than 18 months after becoming Prime Minister, Howard told the truth by telling more lies. He announced a "great adventure" in tax reform he wanted to "share with the Australian people".

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/17/1092508474312.html

    by Cuppa on May 3, 2012 at 5:03 am

  36. Did Peter Slipper disappear overnight? :lol:

    by ruawake on May 3, 2012 at 5:33 am

  37. Well, I am *shocked*:

    News Corp's board of directors is giving its "full confidence in Rupert Murdoch's fitness" and backing his leadership of the company into the future amid a probe of phone hacking and bribery by the company's UK newspapers.

    Wednesday's declaration - from a board that governance experts have said lacks independence - comes a day after a British parliamentary committee said Murdoch was "not a fit person" to head a major international company.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/news-corp-board-backs-murdochs-fitness-20120503-1xzv9.html

    by Laocoon on May 3, 2012 at 6:46 am

  38. Don’t know what deblonay is talking about , there is no way the independents would risk Australia going into recession and may be a depression under the the abbott lead coalition

    Australia would be the laughing stock of the world and will not be respected by any world leader

    by Meguire Bob on May 3, 2012 at 6:50 am

  39. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    There goes a nice little earner for Diog! ( :-) Just joking!)
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/medicare-cuts-could-come-from-sensitive-area-20120502-1xzhn.html
    Another fine Coalition voter no doubt.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/businessman-posts-15m-bail-but-authorities-hold-onto-40m-assets-20120502-1xzfd.html
    If only . . . ! Now running 79% with view that the Opposition’s hand is in the Slipper affair.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/government-claims-coverup-in-slipper-affair-20120502-1xyg2.html#poll
    This is appalling.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/minister-breaks-ranks-20120502-1xzkx.html
    David Rowe’s take on the HSU East fiasco.
    http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

    by BK on May 3, 2012 at 6:54 am

  40. Newt Gingrich – a shining example of conservative economic management capability and ethics.
    http://www.americablog.com/2012/05/gingrich-campaign-4-million-in-debt-due.html
    How conservatives have changed a once good country – Canada.
    http://www.americablog.com/2012/05/what-happened-to-canada-ans-corporate.html
    Some good US cartoons.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/polobl.jpg
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/polobl2.jpg
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/polobl1.jpg
    This chart is amazing! No wonder the US middle class is angry.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/02/1088158/-Chart-The-illustrated-history-of-you-being-screwed-by-people-like-Mitt-Romney

    by BK on May 3, 2012 at 7:09 am

  41. Paul Sheehan in the SMH defends – repeat: defends – Gillard.

    The political storm engulfing Julia Gillard has become hysterical. When the unelected and unaccountable start baying for her blood, the cure is worse than the disease. What brought Labor to its current low point was a team effort. She is being blamed for the actions of many. The Prime Minister should hold her course.

    The vultures of flux in the Canberra press gallery are peddling the folly that Kevin Rudd can be exhumed and made prime minister again. The fig-leaf that justifies this speculation is the opinion polls.

    Nice turn of phrase: “the vultures of flux”.

    In the final summation they’re ALL to blame. The party, Rudd, and the Independents should cop the blame, and Thomson, and FWA, and Goss… it’s a communal thing. Sheehan tells us Labor’s just rotten to the core.

    But Sheehan beng Sheehan, he can’t resist an opportunity to be nasty at the end:

    Just because Gillard, as Prime Minister, has been unable to break her droning monotone, her leaden diction, and her endless references to ''working Australians'' does not mean she deserves the avalanche of opprobrium she now receives.

    It’s a team effort, you see, and if he has to go easy on Gillard (yes, that last paragraph was “going easy”) then so be it.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/dont-blame-gillard-labors-nadir-has-been-a-team-effort-20120502-1xz5d.html#ixzz1tkUyRSf7

    by Bushfire Bill on May 3, 2012 at 7:13 am

  42. Jon Stewart absolutely rips the hypocrisy of the GOP.
    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/jon-stewart-goes-off-on-gop-hypocrisy-for-criticizing-obamas-bin-laden-ad/

    by BK on May 3, 2012 at 7:21 am

  43. Who would have thunk that the OZ’s editorial afraid Poodle Pyne might get egg on his face like Grech forgery 3y ago http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/speaker-claims-must-be-tested-on-facts-not-politics/story-e6frg71x-1226345182819

    by The Finnigans on May 3, 2012 at 7:22 am

  44. Jon Stewart absolutely rips the hypocrisy of the GOP.

    BK, who could forget Dubya’s this:

    http://www.famouspictures.org/mag/images/2/26/Mission_Accomplished.jpg

    and this

    http://www.allhatnocattle.net/bush_mission_accomplished.jpg

    Fuacking hypocrite

    by The Finnigans on May 3, 2012 at 7:32 am

  45. BK,

    Now running 79% with view that the Opposition’s hand is in the Slipper affair

    Looks like the astroturfers are on the case. Now at 73 per cent.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/government-claims-coverup-in-slipper-affair-20120502-1xyg2.html#poll

    by Cuppa on May 3, 2012 at 7:34 am

  46. Another Gillard stuff-up, claims the Daily Telegraph.

    She’s responsible for the bikie wars now. We’ve already heard how “the wrong cuts” (they’re always wrong cuts) in the Customs budget have allowed the guns through our ports, and now the Tele tells us what they’re being used for: bikies are shooting each other over… tobacco.

    I know, you thought the drive-by shootings were all over amphetamines and tattoo parlours, and turf wars about bikie stuff, but they’re small beer (hey, probably beer too! Why not?) compared to the avalanche of… counterfeit ciggies that is about to – counter-intuitively – start killing innocent bystanders.

    The Tele can hardly wait to start out blaming, I’d warrant.

    ILLEGAL cigarettes being smuggled into Australia have soared before plain packaging laws start, a Tobacco Inc-funded report claims.

    The industry claims the boom is fostering organised crime amid the nation's shooting sprees and bikie wars.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/cigarette-smugglers-beat-plain-packaging-laws/story-e6freuzr-1226345221092

    As an exercise in dog-whistling writing it’s quite a good example of the genre.

    One of the English language’s must abused words – “amid” or “amidst” – is making a big comeback.

    What you do is beat up a story about tobacco smuggling.

    Add a photo of a “plain-packaged” cigarette, and then bring in the bikie wars by linking them with the word “amid”.

    And then somewhere deep inside the text, where the bogans rarely venture, you tell the truth, just so at the inquiry (or in response to complaints) you can say you gave both sides of the story.

    The report by Deloitte found that, overall, illicit tobacco reduced slightly during 2011.
    ...
    The report was commissioned by the nation's tobacco giants as they fight the federal government in the High Court over plain packaging laws, to begin in December.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 3, 2012 at 7:38 am

  47. Abbott’s Turn the Boat policy in tatters. Condemned by Indonesia again & Julie Bishop called arrogant which she is as well as Abbott treating the Indonesia with contempt:

    Australian Opposition's asylum seeker policy considered arrogant
    Matt Brown, Indonesia Correspondent
    Last Updated: 21 minutes ago

    The Deputy Chairman of Indonesia's parliament has accused Australia's opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman, Julie Bishop, of promoting an arrogant policy on asylum seekers.

    Julie Bishop met the Chairman and Deputy Chairman of Indonesia's parliament on Wednesday for what was, in effect, a courtesy call. However, Deputy Chairman, Hajriyanto Thohari, says the Coalition's policy, to send asylum seeker boats back where possible is unfair on Indonesia.

    He says he told Ms Bishop Australian policy on asylum seekers should be more humane.

    And he's accused her of being arrogant in explaining the Coalition's position.

    Ms Bishop acknowledges robust discussions but says she's confident a Coalition government would work well with Indonesia.

    http://www.radioaustralianews.net.au/stories/201205/3494293.htm?desktop

    by The Finnigans on May 3, 2012 at 7:39 am

  48. Paul Sheehan in the SMH defends – repeat: defends – Gillard.

    Ah, no I don’t think he really is.

    This is the warm-up routine for any upcoming change of leader. He wants to establish it is EVERYONE’S fault, so when and if Labor change leader he can argue that it was a pointless exercise because it wasn’t about the leader.

    Another opportunity for Labor bashing, to my eyes.

    by Danny Lewis on May 3, 2012 at 7:41 am

  49. Finns how to put

    Uk ukk uk,

    Stll bet there is big job loses coming in media

    From my dining room wind rain, swaying trees. Cannot see the mountain
    but i love it, the river is lsping up on the rocks

    Wish we had up loads like franks

    Must offer to take littlies school and kind

    Yum days by the fire i love seasons

    by my say on May 3, 2012 at 7:43 am

  50. Bb

    Did u read the comments under vex, re that story

    by my say on May 3, 2012 at 7:45 am

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