Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition
Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
bg
What do you mean fan?
I apply fan to pubescent girls following the likes of 1D.
Thinkers follow arguments and recognise the position someone holds in their party*, society and life.
*Change party for other organisations as appropriate.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 10:50 am
BK
Last night I was checking through the stats at The Daily Derp and discovered something I’m very proud of.
In the post Tony Abbott Is A Hypocrite, A Coward And A Liar, there is a passing reference to the “vile Sophie Mirabella”.
I have now discovered that for the search terms “vile Sophie Mirabella” and “Sophie Mirabella is vile”, The Derp is listed on the first page of Google’s results.
If anyone types those terms into Google, The Derp comes up on the first page.
I wasn’t even optimising the post for those terms, but The Big G has decided that The Derp is one of the better pages to visit if you’re searching for those terms.
It’s little things like that that make the whole thing worthwhile.
by Dan Gulberry on May 3, 2012 at 10:51 am
my say
Indeed.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 10:52 am
DG
Congratulations.
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 10:52 am
Put it down to living with two very strong women for 40 years SK. Even before then I grew up with four sisters. I know my place
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 10:52 am
Are you refering to the last Howard government, don’t upset people to stay in government is Liberal policy!.
Mind they did give tax cuts, at each election.
by 1934pc on May 3, 2012 at 10:53 am
1934pc
But Howard did upset finally with Workchoices
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 10:53 am
Ha!
They obvioulsy haven’t put up their office phone number list yet and they haven’t worked out how to transfer between phones.
TRAINING WHEELS!
by bluegreen on May 3, 2012 at 10:56 am
Victoria,
I haven’t kept up today but I reckon if it has all gone quiet I’d say the govt are letting the AFP get on with their thing.
The one thing that I find very intriguing, the first interviews neither Tony Abbott or Christopher Pyne seem ‘schocked’ by the revelations of the $50k news and won’t categorically deny knowledge so my take is they are up to their neck in it but believe they won’t be busted.
by Space Kidette on May 3, 2012 at 10:57 am
Dan
Thanks for that. And I derive a bit of pleasure from the adoption of the term Puff Adder, here on PB at least.
by BK on May 3, 2012 at 10:57 am
Victoria Workchoices was the straw but there were other issues like Iraq, AWB, Telstra and deporting Aussies. All these things fed into an it’s time factor. Of course Rudd seemed like a refreshing change when he replaced Teddy Bear.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 10:58 am
Where’s VEXNEWS?
Talk about a failed gutter press.
by bluegreen on May 3, 2012 at 10:58 am
SK
Tend to agree with your assessment. I suspect the msm are feeling the same way
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 11:02 am
Does this High Court decision on James Hardie have impactions for Twiggy problems?
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:03 am
bg
Vexnews may have been warned off by the AFP
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 11:05 am
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:06 am
Sk
The words of the PM keep ringing in my ears. A line has been crossed and dark clouds are surrounding the parliament
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 11:07 am
If Kathy Jackson has any friends left then they should take her aside and quietly tell her to back off all this media stuff. She is not doing herself any favours.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 11:07 am
Vexnews links to a Time magazine article
Survey: One in Three Americans Would Fail Citizenship Test
A survey conducted by the Center for the Study of the American Dream at Xavier University found that about a third of citizens would fail the civics portion of the standard test given to immigrants applying for citizenship. Over 1,000 Americans over the age of 18 were asked 10 random questions from the actual exam. Thirty-five percent of people were able to answer five or less correctly.
According to U.S. News and World Report, 97% of immigrants applying for U.S. citizenship pass the test.
by citizen on May 3, 2012 at 11:07 am
They are different – the HC, in argument, were critical of ASIC’s litigation against Twiggy as much as they were openly hostile to the arguments advanced by the directors of James Hardie in the defence of the Court of Appeal’s decision.
Whether that means Twiggy beats the rap, who knows?
by shellbell on May 3, 2012 at 11:08 am
davidwh
I have said it many times, Kathy Jackson is part of the problem, not the solution
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 11:08 am
shell
Thanks for that. I was thinking of the inform the market part.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:11 am
Not before the AFP does a Grech Mk2 (new & improved version) on Mr Ashby, his email & phone contacts, twitter & Facebook accounts – and his contacts’ email phone etc accounts.
I wonder which Liberal idiot is responsible for Ashby’s adding CabCharge vouchers to his complaint? If he hadn’t, it might have remained a Civil Case and outside the AFP’s jurisdiction.
But then the Libs needed the case against Slipper to be a criminal one, or there were no grounds for his sacking. And now 73% of the 15,915 who filled in the Fairfax poll believing the Coalition has assisted former Slipper staffer James Ashby.
BTW, To get that poll, I had to go back to my earliest urls @ http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/government-claims-coverup-in-slipper-affair-20120502-1xyg2.html#poll Current versions don’t have it.
73% suspecting that Ashby’s claim is Utegate Mk 2. And Rupert not a fit & proper person. So it’s back to HSU, although the still legally baseless claim against Thomson dates to a time outside the Statute of Limitations (esp as he did make some restitution – almost certainly on legal advice)
Today, even Grattan has sort of … maybe … perhaps … changed her tune somewhat.
And we still have Slipper’s Budget Day announcement to come.
Not quite the what Liberal wannabes were hoping last weekend. Wot! Still, they did manipulate voters to get the NewsLtd Galaxy & Newspoll they wanted.
BTW, if Steve Lewis is involved in this, will the AFP, embolden by UK events, put the cleaners through NewsLtd too?
by OzPol Tragic on May 3, 2012 at 11:11 am
As if the federal budget gloom wasnt bad enough, now the VIC govt is cutting 1 in 8 public sevice jobs.
Seriously, this demented bipartisan fetish for surpluses is grossly irresponsible in a fragile economic climate. What part of counter-cyclical dont you understand?
We balanced the budgets – and tipped the country into recesssion. Hooray!
Insanity.
by lefty e on May 3, 2012 at 11:11 am
Just remembered
Another thing Barrie Cassidy said in passing.
There are a lot of pollies running for cover on the cabcharge issue.
by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 11:13 am
OPT
I so much want the duplicity of the coalition to be exposed in all its glory
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 11:15 am
Morrison has been trotted out to do the dog whistle again.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:15 am
There is no Statue of Limitations for indictable offences such as fraud if that is what is alleged under Thomson
by shellbell on May 3, 2012 at 11:15 am
Kezza perhaps that the mystical line Gillard was referring to.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 11:17 am
The Scream sells for a record $116M.
by Diogenes on May 3, 2012 at 11:18 am
davidwh
mystical??
by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 11:19 am
Melissa Clarke all Defence Policy no mention of Morrison.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:20 am
kezza2
I did say over the weekend that the pollies would not be happy to have their own cabcharge expenses looked at. Can of worms comes to mind
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 11:20 am
Shellbelle it will also depend on whether Thomson was issued and used the alleged AMEX card alleged to be paid for by a third party who received contracts as a result. That seems to be the more problematic allegation.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 11:20 am
davidwh
I am sure that people will come to realise what JG meant with her words over the weekend.
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 11:21 am
I’m not surprised that people use that seach string. My 86 yr old mum asked me yesterday who that vile woman was on the Qanda replay.
by kevjohnno on May 3, 2012 at 11:21 am
sted Thursday, May 3, 2012 at 9:53 am | Permalink
Some bad news for fans like myself.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2138654
Thanks guytuar loved that show oh would just about roll on the floor laughing
The kids thought it was so funny as the leading lady was lke me
And would sent text messages while it was on, saying mumnot u again
by my say on May 3, 2012 at 11:22 am
Mystical from the point of view that we have been told it exists but not what it is.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 11:22 am
Posted Thursday, May 3, 2012 at 10:51 am | Permalink
BK
Last night I was checking through the stats at The Daily Derp and discovered something I’m very pro DAN POSTED
Dan and at one stage u told me you where thinking of stopping. See u where meant for this
by my say on May 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
vic
You did too.
That’s why I respect your opinion.
You have a grasp of “below the radar” meaning that few here (including moi) possess.
You should be working in an electoral office.
by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
The James Hardie principal judgment is here:
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2012/17.html
It is of course long but you may want to read Heydon J’s judgment from paragraphs 179 to 203 to see a beautifully written summary of the facts.
Out on a limb – first 7-0 HC judgment for a while
by shellbell on May 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
my say
it was a great show. Went for a long time too. Very unlike British Comedy. Normally short runs.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:26 am
kezza2
Seriously. You give me too much credit!
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 11:28 am
davidwh
If Thomson is the victim of fraud he cannot be charged. That could be the problem the Oppn finding guilty before trial could run into.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:28 am
DWH
The AMEX card might be the sleeper as evident by the police raids on the bloke at Palm or Whale beach
by shellbell on May 3, 2012 at 11:29 am
On a lighter note had to smile about the story of the budgie in Japan who told police his address and so was returned to his owner. Some may argue that budgie showed more intelligence than many of our politicians.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 11:32 am
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:32 am
In a perverse way, it is a pity that Oz is not confronted with European or US style economic problems.
With interest rates low and going lower, unemployment stable and decreasing, inflation low and going lower, the Oz stock market at its highest level for 9 months yesterday – and lots of other good news – people have time to mull over what is, for the most part, distracting stuff.
Every government, in most democracies, face “scandals” of one type or another but they are seen as grist for the political mill.
Currently however, this has devolved into the conservative media describing the government as “scandal riven” which is a mighty overkill for the reality.
As of now, in Oz, every normal wart on the face of democratic government is magnified out of all proportion because there is no other consuming issue.
What we really need now is a real “crisis”.
Just as the Tampa sailed over the horizon to save Howard’s bacon, and the Falklands was a manufactured response to save Maggie those many years ago, a real fair dinkum “shock/horror” event is required!
After all, just a week ago, Abbott or one of his minions said wtte, “That there is nothing wrong with Australia that a change of government would not fix.”
So there you have it out of the mouths of the conservatives.
They, and their mates in the media, really don’t have one offer on how to make Oz a better place as they have essentially admitted – as has Abbott when overseas – that Oz is doing okay.
I say some of this tongue-in-cheek of course, as I do not want to see some horrible event hit us, but then, such events have been of great help to governments before.
In a sad way, the Twin Towers gave Bush a rallying cry and we have paid the price for his stupidity in Iraq and latterly in Afghanistan for years. But, it got him re-elected.
Nonetheless, the only alternative is for Labor to keep going -with or without a crisis.
Anything else is a repudiation of everything which has been, is and will be achieved in the next 16 months.
At the moment, I do not have any difficulty making a case for Labor in my day-to-day dealings with friends and acquaintances. However, a change of leader ans/or watering down of policy to somehow placate the critics – mainly from the right – would make it look as though Labor is wavering.
At the end of the day, and JG slogs it out until say August next year, she will have proved every pundit, and I mean every pundit wrong – both about her ability and her government’s ability to stand and deliver.
Anything less than this, other than of her own choosing to tell everyone to stick it, will likely mean defeat.
The likes of and of Smith, Shorten, Combet or Rudd will do nothing to stop said defeat as Labor will be seen as weak.
Governments, at the end of the day, are not rewarded for being weak and wavering.
They are often rewarded for being strong and wrong
Being strong and right is even better.
by Tricot on May 3, 2012 at 11:33 am
vic
Yes, very seriously.
And, as I hit send, I thought I should have written the PM’s office.
So, I very much mean it.
Plus you’re so damn polite.
And that’s a great asset to have.
by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 11:35 am
Tricot
Gillard theme song Adam Ant “Stand and Deliver”
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:35 am