Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition
Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Victoria and guytaur Thomson was an official of the NSW branch of HSU. After he left the branch that branch was amalgamated with three (I think) VIC branches to form HSUEast. The matters being investigated by NSW police cover the period from the mid 1990′s through to now and involve HSU NSW/HSUEast. So while Thomson has never been an official of HSUEast he was an official of that part of HSUEast which was formerly HSU NSW.
You just need to follow the trail of events and timeframes.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Victoria
Thompson would be shielded to the extent that he was not involved in decision making – say awarding of contracts to Suppliers.
However when the Amex issued first aired there were comments that Williamson was putting his kids through schools with them.
Mention was made that Thompson was also granted a card although it appeared not be abused to the extent Williamson’s was. I believe that if it is proved that there was an understanding that a supplier got a contact on the basis of providing a kickback to the HSU and Thompson knew of that and still utilised the card he could be in trouble.
However the matter is likely to be so complicated in relation to inferring intent from documentation and what appears to be a messy and incomplete paper trail that the next election would have come and gone before Thompson goes to trial on any possible charges.
The danger for Thomspon is if any deal is offered to Wiliamson so as to dop a bucket on his mate. That of course comes with its problems for the liberals if it is seen that the proper administration of justice has been influenced or skewed so that you let the big fish go so that you can snare the samller but more politically sensitive fish.
by gough1 on May 3, 2012 at 12:28 pm
davidwh
It would appear that is a very tangled mess
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 12:30 pm
gough1
I suspect that is the whole reason why it was best to suspend Thomson from the party. It sounds like a very messy and indeed complicated situation that needs a bit of time to sort through.
by victoria on May 3, 2012 at 12:32 pm
guytaur I am not suggesting Thomson has done anything, honestly no one here is in a position to give an informed opinion of that one way or the other, I was just pointing out that it is those matters which potentially could cause the most pain for whoever is involved. A number of people here are happy to give Thomson a clean bill of health and frankly they do not have the information to do that based on the little we do know.
My personal opinion and it’s an opinion only is that it will be found that Thomson has no criminal matters to answer but too many civil problems to ever allow him back as a Labor MP. Opinion only.
There are others in HSU who I think will end up facing some criminal charges but again it’s only an opinion.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 12:34 pm
davidwh
We are in wait and see territory. What we do know is the Oppn jumped the gun by claiming guilty on the fraud part.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Boerwar,
Also, if those Japanse Midget subs decide to try their luck in Sydney Harbour again we are just fine.
If those
by bluegreen on May 3, 2012 at 12:35 pm
davidwh @ 4337
You mean my good work is bearing fruit? Don’t forget your mum either, she sounds a great lady.
The curious thing about both you and Bluegreen is that there is so little separates you from supporting the ALP other than some mental block.
On just about all policy issues you are with us and against the “dark side”.
Of course neither of you seem prepared to jump on board the “cult of Julia” which is a further mark of your good sense.
by bemused on May 3, 2012 at 12:36 pm
BK @ 1359
I have used the said description of ‘our’ Sophie when in discussions. At risk of being labelled a hypocrite (media desriptions of JG I am not happy with), this is highly amusing to all who hear it. All agree it is an apt description, whether Lib or Lab supporters.
by Super on May 3, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Cue some whining from Gerry about how the govt is killing him.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/harvey-norman-hit-by-aggressive-competition-20120503-1y0fh.html#ixzz1tlozBEHL
by Diogenes on May 3, 2012 at 12:37 pm
mari
Saw the Gordon’s stuff. Meanwhile the natives are getting restless in the US of A.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/may/01/rupert-murdoch-fox-licences-us
by poroti on May 3, 2012 at 12:37 pm
On the decision to can the acquisition of self-propelled artillary:
(1) The generals have been running a PR campaign to try and stop the self-propelled artillary decision. It is nice to see that they have failed, but it will be another reason for them to despise Mr Smith.
(2) The US gave up on its big new spend on self-propelled artillary a couple of years ago.
(3) There is a struggle between Army, Navy and Air Force over priorities for spending. Looks like Army takes a knock on the self-propelled artillary, and the Air Force takes a knock on the JSF which will arrive a couple of years later than otherwise it might have. The initial decision was made in haste. The US has also delayed purchases. Why we are satisfied with what is essentially a second class aircraft is beyond me.
(4) The decision about the 12 new submarines program is to be delayed while a couple of hundred million dollars more is spent thinking about it. This is not as silly as it sounds, IMHO, given that this project will be the single most expensive project in Australia’s history. The new boats will still be operational in 2070 and, with extended lives, probably 2080. Mr Sheridan and the Military establishment are being intensely critical about the delays. But any analyses they have come up with are silent or skewed on the Collins project which was bedevilled by, inter alia, very poor decision making in the initiation phase.
(5) It is still not clear to me how we are going to crew 12 boats when we can’t crew what we’ve got. Perhaps there are some lessons to be learned from Spain which has 52% youth unemployment and 25% overall unemployment. For the first time in a quarter of century, there has been a jump in new seminarians.
by Boerwar on May 3, 2012 at 12:39 pm
davidwh
Excuse me?
What matters? Are you talking Peter Slipper’s entitlement woes?
The persistence of the media in this regard happened purely because of the result of the 2007 election and was was run by the Liberals with the help of the msm.
The Libs wanted a different candidate for Fisher pure and simple. But, they kept running up against the Santoro faction. When the LNP took over in Qld, part of the deal was that no sitting members would be up for pre-selection.
The Liberal-driven media went into overdrive. And when Slipper was made Deputy Speaker, they upped the ante even more. That is why there has been “persistence” by the media regarding Slipper’s entitlements.
As for the sexual harassment allegations – the msm had not reported on that at all, apart from a rare reference to a “special relationship” between Slipper and one of his electoral officers way back in 2004.
Not a whisper about his proclivities until now. That’s not media persistence about outing Slipper.
The real problem for the government in this case has been the msm and the desire of its owners for regime change, nothing to do with Slipper being made Speaker.
The issues you keep saying need to be dealt were the constant accusations that he’d misused his travel allowances. But that is just crap. The Department of Finance and Deregulation has, since 2004, audited everyone’s allowances, not just Peter Slippers, and all who have exceeded their allowances have been made to repay. It’s just ridiculous that Slipper is the only one under scrutiny.
Now, it’s an issue of cabcharges, and as I posted earlier, Barrie Cassidy says there are a lot of pollies running for cover at the moment.
As for the copy of the vouchers, they were the specific ones alleged by Ashby in his court filing. If that was the case, and they were correct and verified, then why shouldn’t a Minister say that it all appears above board.
C’mon.
by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Gawd! Thomson isn’t even mentioned in Temby because it covers the time after Thomson left the NSW branch to run the HSU Nationally!
In addition, Thomson’s period in the NSW branch terminated over 7 years ago. Unless there’s a very serious criminal matter – and Vengeful Kathy, FWA, 2 NSW police Inquiries and 1 Victorian police inquiry have – despite the $$ millions & oodles of time wasted trying to find Abbott’s “smoking gun & keys to The Lodge” criminal charge – NOTHING CRIMINAL HAS BEEN FOUND – there’s also a small matter of NSW Statutes of Limitation.
Tony Abbott’s HSU-fueled ambition is a state & national financial health hazard!
Why are the Federal Liberal Opposition and its supporters so blo-dy dumb?
by OzPol Tragic on May 3, 2012 at 12:40 pm
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 12:40 pm
I hope we end up getting Subs built by firms that know how to build them German one with offsets ect and Tanks why they got those Yank ones, apart from Howard engaging in bum kissing of the discredited Bush.
At least the Germans can build them as well and they may cost less for a better tank.
by John Ryan on May 3, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Boerwar
Nice analysis. I don;t think they could buy the JSFs on time even if they wanted to. Are they even ready?
by bluegreen on May 3, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Milliband predicting failure in Afghanistan.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Perhaps Gina could buy a JSF to help NW WA seccede.
by bluegreen on May 3, 2012 at 12:44 pm
OPT
You make some salient points but I suggest that my quoted paragraph still stands.
by gough1 on May 3, 2012 at 12:45 pm
There is no ‘cult of Julia’ – but some people have to believe that in order to ignore the plank in their eyes.
What there is is an acceptance that the Labor party has a leader and that she should be supported – and that the reality is that changing leaders would not make any long term difference to Labor’s prospects and most likely damage them further.
Disunity is death. If Labor supporters can’t deal with reality and support the leader they have, instead of pining for the Good Old Days, how can they expect the rest of the community to face reality either?
So some of you believe Labor would be doing better under Rudd. That’s a ‘what if’ game, a fantasy alternative universe. We don’t live in one of those.
We have the cards we’ve been dealt. We have a Labor PM, facing extraordinary difficulties.
If you’re even half way pretending to be a Labor person, stop adding to these.
You’re already faking a belief that Rudd can return, so faking support for the party’s leader should be a doddle.
by zoomster on May 3, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Victoria
That was distructive not constructive, they never build anything one can look at!.
by 1934pc on May 3, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Kezza so you are basically saying its ok for a minister to presume innocence while a matter is still ongoing? How did that end up for him by the way?
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 12:49 pm
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 12:49 pm
lefty e @ 4373
Dead right. The problem is that it runs the risk of tipping us into the recession we dodged during the GFC.
by bemused on May 3, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Gough has summarized it very well at 4451.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 12:52 pm
not sure if this bombshell letter from US Senate to Lord Leveson has been posted yet – about 4mb to download.
http://commerce.senate.gov/public/?a=Files.Serve&File_id=6df0709e-33bb-4545-847f-dbfd14867d5d
starting to get a mite hot for Rupert, despite the “full support” of his handpicked board – some of whom may well go down the river with him.
by sprocket_ on May 3, 2012 at 12:53 pm
[davidwh
Posted Thursday, May 3, 2012 at 12:49 pm | Permalink
Kezza so you are basically saying its ok for a minister to presume innocence while a matter is still ongoing? How did that end up for him by the way?
Huh?
Huh?
by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Very encouraging I think, I didn’t know Rod Eddington was on the board of News Ltd. What as an independent ?
Think the Repug are worried about the Latino vote they aren’t impressed by Mick Rommey and in places like Florida a key state they could turn the election
by mari on May 3, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Extract from SMH article re Michael Kirby’s appearance at Senate C’ee on same sex marriage:
I imagine Kirby would have given Cash’s dumb ass question the brush off.
KK appeared as well.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/why-im-treated-like-a-secondclass-citizen-justice-michael-kirby-20120503-1y0o3.html#ixzz1tlsplVxB
by shellbell on May 3, 2012 at 12:54 pm
sprocket
You are first with the letter. Others of us have posted HuffPo and Guardian links to coverage of the letter.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Bullshite! That’s what the Parliament – QT & Opposition – are supposed to do!
This country isn’t run by the MSM, or despite Murdoch’s belief that that is his & his media’s right, by Rupert Murdoch & his media. It’s run by the people through their lawfully elected Representatives and Senators.
And, as has been strikingly the case since June 2010 – esp in the cases of Grech/Utegate, Thomson/ the ‘smoking gun’, Ruddstoration and probably Slipper also- the media’s (esp Murdoch’s stable & camp followers) claims have not been substantiated by political & legal reality!
by OzPol Tragic on May 3, 2012 at 12:55 pm
It seems that Canberra is headed for a budget gutting. It seems the strategy is get rid of so many that Hockey can’t find his required savings.
It also seems that the MRRT is a featherduster designed to tickle some extra loose change out of the miners.
by bluegreen on May 3, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Kezza Albanese presumed innocence based on the vouchers while the matter was ongoing and before the vouchers were subjected to proper scrunity. Within 48 hours the PM completely backed away from that position.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Thanks earlier on for someone correcting me about the Falklands.
I was aware that these sparsely populated islands were occupied by the Argentinians along with a handful of British troops being there at the time.
Given that Britain had virtually given away a whole empire in the 30 years before this, the Falklands (Malvinas) were of no real strategic consequence but they did provide Thatcher with a rationale for war – and to the extent that the British were successful, she achieved her political aim of re-election.
The irony was that the right wing general in charge of Argentina at the time invaded the the Falklands for the same political reason that Thatcher went half way across the world to “save” the island for Britain. He lost of course though the Argentinian people are still paying for his gamble.
They do say that patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel – especially conservative ones.
The main point of @4397 is to help my thinking and try to keep my feet on the ground.
Of course we would like to see the polls back at say 52-48 – even if this were the conservatives in the lead at this point in time. However, if governments of any persuasion, including the conservatives, are going to be paralysed into inaction and pandering to the gut reactions in polls of just over 1000 people once a fortnight, we might as well kiss stable government good-bye.
I am under no illusion that if we had a conservative government after 2013 – notwithstanding the conservative media, that the players in the media game are now hooked into the drug of helping to shape events rather than just report and reflect on them.
On this issue I am not an optimist.
by Tricot on May 3, 2012 at 12:58 pm
davidwh
In Albo’s defence I would point out he said Slipper was completely innocent of filing out blank cab charge dockets as alleged. That was and is the fact.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 12:59 pm
OPT part of our system is a reasonably free press responsible for investigation and reporting and God help up if that ever ceases. I agree they do it badly at times but that is a separate issue which is being addressed.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 1:01 pm
One thing I think is crystal clear. Steve Lewis is no Chris Masters when it comes to investigative reporting.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Guytaur you are probably correct but it’s the job of the AFP to make that call once a matter has been referred to them and not a government minister.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Sprocket
What a great shot across the bows letter from Senator Rockefeller.
Terrific summary too.
by gough1 on May 3, 2012 at 1:06 pm
I pointed out this on twitter the other day, when having a go at Chris U etc it was well received in my twitter feed
by mari on May 3, 2012 at 1:07 pm
davidwh
So Minister Albanese should have ignored what people could see on their breakfast table around the nation. The Cab Dockets were not blank. Literally there in black and white.
I do not think Minister Albanese did anything improper in any way by acknowledging that fact. The allegation that they were blank was disproved in the public arena.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 1:07 pm
If you couldn’t be bothered reading my post to you before about your completely silly “mystical” remark, then perhaps you should do so now.
It was perfectly reasonable that Slipper retain the Speakership given he’d produced the cab vouchers under question, provided by the Dept of Finance, and they seemed above board – and that he would be cleared. And, therefore, by convention if an MP is facing a civil action then they should not have to step aside.
By the time JG returned the situation had changed.
The media had run a trial and were baying for blood – they weren’t interested in Slipper’s by the way, they wanted JG’s head on a plate.
And nothing said by JG contradicted what Albo had said.
by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Guytaur Albanese should not have been so positive. Something like the vouchers appear to clear Slipper however we need to wait until the authorities complete their review would have been the prudent stand to take. Albanese said clearly that the dockets cleared Slipper of the criminal matters and he was wrong as shown by subsequent events.
by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 1:12 pm
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 1:13 pm
davidwh, Albanese is a politician, what do you expect?
by ltep on May 3, 2012 at 1:15 pm
4484
Thatcher`s victory in the Falklands and then the next election (The Tories lost votes but gained seats because of FPTP and vote splitting) was the lesser of two evils because she was far more democratic than the Argentinian Generals and the defeat had the effect of diminishing vastly the respect for the military in Argentina. The Generals were a standard Cold War US backed military junta of the kind most of Latin America was subjected to. They were nastier and it was better that they lost. There defeat is one of he reasons that South America is so democratic today.
by Tom the first and best on May 3, 2012 at 1:16 pm
davidwh
You have just committed the sin you accuse Albanese of. You claim he is wrong. Investigation is ongoing. Therefore you cannot claim he is wrong.
by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Some ability to understand political risk, especially from someone who has been around soooo long.
by bluegreen on May 3, 2012 at 1:16 pm
someone may have to assist me in understanding this as I have never been a member of a union as such -
how could the grassroots members of the HSU branches under question let these alleged huge 3rd party/indrect payments go through for so long without pulling up those individuals associated with these alleged transactions ?
surely there are annual financial statements that would draw attention to something being NQR ?
by Rex Douglas on May 3, 2012 at 1:17 pm