Crikey



Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. TLBD

    I think the Drum will be interesting too. What terms are the talking heads going to use to describe JB Indonesian performance? Excellent to the most abysmal performance ever.
    If being honest it should be the latter.

    by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 5:50 pm

  2. Has Gillard become the new real Julia on revived Wilkie Pokie deal? I hope so as the clubs will go nuts again and NSW will loose more seats.

    God i love having Gillard as PM.

    by rummel on May 3, 2012 at 5:52 pm

  3. We usualy go to agfest,

    Weather bad, abbitt was there, i woukd not of been able to hold my tongue bet we paid for that
    Junket

    by my say on May 3, 2012 at 5:52 pm

  4. Outsider

    Just caught up with your most interesting and thoughtful post at 4630.

    One thing it didn’t address however, was the position the indies might take if Gillard goes, even willingly. They have said repeatedly that their agreement is with Gillard and if she goes it all goes back into the melting pot. How would you feel about a snap election in four or five months time, because that’s what could easily happen?

    Also, while I agree that Smith LOOKS like a PM, the more important question is – would he ACT like one. To paraphrase a former Liberal PM (also known as the rodent) does he have the ticker for the job. Whatever else might be said of her, Julia Gillard certainly does. She is as tough as nails – and I suspect that is the main reason the conservative forces are so intent on getting rid of her. Whoever replaces her (if anyone does) had better be every bit as strong and determined as she is, or it will just be an exercise in folly.

    by Darn on May 3, 2012 at 5:52 pm

  5. lizzie
    i can’t tell you how much I am enjoying watching Pyne squirm.

    by leone on May 3, 2012 at 5:53 pm

  6. my say

    Just think. You could have been on National Television castigating the Leader of the Lynch Mob. :)

    by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 5:54 pm

  7. zoilord

    Pyne’s favourite song, he inherited it from Howard.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OArZ9N0Ptg8

    by ruawake on May 3, 2012 at 5:54 pm

  8. leone
    me too…. long may it last!

    by Lyne Lady on May 3, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  9. @rummel/4851

    Not if Bikie Gangs take over NSW and QLD.

    by zoidlord on May 3, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  10. puff – that’s a shame…

    by Lyne Lady on May 3, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  11. OPT I don’t believe there is a statute of limitations on criminal matters.

    by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  12. leone

    And which of the “insider” journos in Canberra will call him out? They must surely be as aware as c@tmomma of the likelihood that he is fibbing.

    by lizzie on May 3, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  13. PYNEGATE

    The Pyne email is interesting. I thought the “couldn’t remember” defence of Pyne might be supportable because of the late hour and the alleged drinking. But the fact that he put an apostrophe after James means he was pretty lucid, IMO – or should it have been James’s? (I always struggle with this part of grammar- perhaps one of you coukld enlighten me.)

    I see they have explained the time difference in the 2 emails – presumably to do with daylight saving.

    I wonder who the mystery Queenslander is?

    Oh, fun and games. Could we get Steve Lewis onto it?

    by Lynchpin on May 3, 2012 at 5:56 pm

  14. Guytaur, ages and ages ago you wrote something that suggested that Mark Colvin had left the ABC. I would be most grateful if you could give me your source.

    If he has indeed departed, I’d have thought that it would be because he is in very poor health – has to have dialysis three times a week: http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/dialysis-sure-beats-dying-but-a-kidney-would-be-better/

    by fiona reynolds on May 3, 2012 at 5:57 pm

  15. Guytaur,

    Colvin is still at the ABC. Mark Tobin left the ABC to join Fatty O’s staff.

    by Burgey on May 3, 2012 at 6:00 pm

  16. Let us remember the poms have decommissioned ships this year

    by my say on May 3, 2012 at 6:02 pm

  17. fiona

    I put an if on that. It was PB chatter he was taking a job with Barry O Farrell. The if i very big.

    by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 6:02 pm

  18. I’d have thought if Pyne was meant to be so familiar with the Speakers office, he’d have known Ashby personally around November/December when Mr Slipper officially became the Speaker …

    by spur212 on May 3, 2012 at 6:02 pm

  19. She is as tough as nails

    Because she always speaks in an emotionless monotone?
    Because the party don’t if and who to replace her with?
    Because she keeps making bad judgements and gets creamed for it and ruins Labor’s TPP, but the party still don’t know what to do with it.

    Being an involuntary piƱata doesn’t make anybody tough as nails, just makes them a cringeful person to observe.

    This is just another manufacture characteristics by her followers in school girl adulation, along with the invention of her being some sort of negotiator.

    Maate, if Gillard had any talent at all, in fact if she just managed to be ordinary, then labor would be in a far better position now. And wasn’t this her reason for knifing rudd? She reckoned she could do better? Well, really she has done terribly.

    Interested to watch the next invented character trait from he close followers.

    by Thomas Paine. on May 3, 2012 at 6:03 pm

  20. Another misleading morrison bleat ,being put down.

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3987872.html

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 6:03 pm

  21. rummel
    Posted Thursday, May 3, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink
    Has Gillard become the new real Julia on revived Wilkie Pokie deal? I hope so as the clubs will go nuts again and NSW will loose more seats.

    God i love having Gillard as PM.

    Isn’t it wonderful finally Rummel has converted over from the dark side, must be impending fatherhood for the second time, he now realises he needs to provide for the future. hence his dramatic “love of Julia Gillard as PM” message

    by mari on May 3, 2012 at 6:03 pm

  22. Thanks burgey it appears I am getting Mark’s mixed up.

    by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 6:03 pm

  23. lol PYNEGATE

    Pale ale compared to Slippergate and Thompsongate.

    by rummel on May 3, 2012 at 6:04 pm

  24. This is the Mark who now works for Fatty.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B00bXEqez8Q

    by ruawake on May 3, 2012 at 6:04 pm

  25. @rummel/4872

    Didn’t you know that Pynegate is part of Slippergate?

    LOL.

    @TP/4868

    Who cares how she speaks, for all I care she could speak like a robot.

    by zoidlord on May 3, 2012 at 6:05 pm

  26. Goward, Carlton and ....... :The Drum

    by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 6:05 pm

  27. Just came home!
    Anything interesting happen in politics today? :)

    by Dee on May 3, 2012 at 6:05 pm

  28. I don’t remember, I don’t recall
    I got no memory of anything at all
    I don’t remember, I don’t recall
    I got no memory of anything
    Absolutely anything at all
    I don’t remember

    Who knew all those Coalition MPs were quoting Peter Gabriel?

    by leone on May 3, 2012 at 6:07 pm

  29. God i love having Gillard as PM.

    As are we. How could you not be proud of anyone brave enough to take on the most powerful forces in this country, to take the daily attacks and calls for violence, all for the good of the rest of the community?

    I know I am.

    by Son of foro on May 3, 2012 at 6:07 pm

  30. Bet there are people in here who could do for less than $500 million.

    http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/minister-told-to-explain-payroll-claim/story-e6frfku0-1226346133503

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 6:07 pm

  31. Just having a nice red to settle the nerves. I had a scary fall onto a gravel driveway – just avoided a face plant using hands (now bruised) and chest. My calf immediately went into a horrible cramp spasm while the dog thought I was on for a game and kept jumping on me. Just to complete the picture a horse was also leaning over the gate and “lipping” my face.
    All OK now.
    I’d love to have it on video. It’d be a hoot!

    by BK on May 3, 2012 at 6:08 pm

  32. (

    (Asylum seekers staying with Aussie families is a brilliant idea. If I had roo()

    It use to be called sponsering. . My inlaws had 5; famillies after they immigrated. My
    oh remembers all f them , the ones that stayed in tas, became like family.

    So nothing new

    by my say on May 3, 2012 at 6:09 pm

  33. Another strong day for labor and their supporters

    been a week day for the coalition and their supporters

    by Meguire Bob on May 3, 2012 at 6:09 pm

  34. Here we go!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-03/accc-to-probe-price-fixing-among-fuel-retailers/3989874

    by BK on May 3, 2012 at 6:09 pm

  35. ta zoilord :-)

    It’s Pyne email surfaces as ‘cover-up’ claims persist

    Mr Pyne denies having ever spoken with Mr Ashby about the alleged sexual harassment but yesterday qualified his original statement, saying: ''Even if James Ashby had raised these matters with me or anyone else, well, quite frankly he is within his rights to do so.''

    The Liberal powerbroker dodged questions over whether he had ever contacted Mr Ashby by email, saying only: ''I've never spoken to James Ashby on the phone and I've never texted him on the phone.''

    But in documents obtained by the National Times, Mr Pyne is shown to seek Mr Ashby's mobile number and email address

    Question 1. If Slipper was in the chair for the Adjournment (apparently Hansard confirms that, but I haven’t checked personally) shouldn’t the Manager of Opposition Business been in the HoR, not boozing & chatting with Ashby & another of Slippers’ staffers?

    Question 2. Why did Pyne lie – not just once but several times, admitting the truth only when confronted by documentation?

    And the latest on the Fairfax poll?

    Do you believe the Coalition has assisted former Slipper staffer James Ashby?

    Yes 74%
    No 18%
    I don’t know 8%

    Total voters 17,165.

    I suppose Slipper’s statement will be 9.00am Tuesday? Or will it be QT, with MAX public coverage?

    by OzPol Tragic on May 3, 2012 at 6:10 pm

  36. There is a lot of talk on this site (understandable) about Gillard being replaced. I think it would be very very difficult to pull off. On balance, I don’t think it will (or should) happen. I don’t have my head in the sand on this, by the way. The prospect of defeat is immense. But to thrust a new leader into the job is very risky and in my view unlikely to lead to a sustained increase in the PV. It is a Hobson’s choice.

    It is perverse, but I think that in the medium to long term, sticking with Gillard PM is the best choice for many reasons, including that it sends a message about how the ALP views (or should view) leadership. There is no doubt the removal of Rudd has been poorly received by many voters.

    Victoria has said in the past on this site that Gillard may step down. If a change was to occur, it would have to be on that basis, in my view. Still not a great result; but it could be better explained. However, the only precedent for this (in my living memory) is Gorton. We got McMahon after that; then he lost his first election. So, not a good historical precedent.

    So, what is it to be – pragmatism (ie maximising chances to win at the next election by replacing an unpopular leader with someone perceived to be more popular); or determination to stay the course with a view to (most likely) losing with dignity?

    In any event, I think it is too early to talk leadership change. Check the polls in October/November and reassess then, I reckon.

    by Lynchpin on May 3, 2012 at 6:10 pm

  37. and Della Bosca:The Drum

    by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 6:10 pm

  38. Fair dinkum Abbott is as deep as a Petri dish!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-03/abbott-backs-away-from-gst-changes/3988068

    by BK on May 3, 2012 at 6:10 pm

  39. Where is Godwin Grech when Christoper Pyne needs him? #auspol

    by The Finnigans on May 3, 2012 at 6:11 pm

  40. BK,

    You didn’t have that nice red before the fall? Or did you see Soph coming up the driveway?

    by Space Kidette on May 3, 2012 at 6:11 pm

  41. BK

    You could have ound out if you were viral with an upload to Utube. Glad you ok.

    by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 6:11 pm

  42. Ah, but rummel, I do love a good Pale Ale! :lol:

    by Lynchpin on May 3, 2012 at 6:12 pm

  43. Bk you fell in the kichen last year also.

    We know your game lol lots of love and nursi g fromm oh:-) :-)

    by my say on May 3, 2012 at 6:12 pm

  44. Pyne can’t works well without the apostrophe.

    by This little black duck on May 3, 2012 at 6:12 pm

  45. Government Billeting idea getting very positive twtter response on the drum.
    One tweet was to do same for homeless

    by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 6:13 pm

  46. God i love having Gillard as PM.

    rummy, no country for a traitor :P

    by The Finnigans on May 3, 2012 at 6:13 pm

  47. BK, that’s hilarious. Glad you can see the funny side of it.

    by Super on May 3, 2012 at 6:13 pm

  48. BK
    Thank goodness you are OK. I too am havng a nice glass of red, just as well it’s not for the same reason you are enjoying yours. I just like a medicinal dose of red before dinner.

    by leone on May 3, 2012 at 6:14 pm

  49. Re the apostrophe, you just put it on the end of nouns ending in s. Tt would be James’ emails, Chris’ arske.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 3, 2012 at 6:14 pm

  50. Someone posted this picture yesterday,but now looks like a good prediction.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7134732947/sizes/l/in/photostream/

    by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 6:14 pm

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