Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition
Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
In the early years of his govt, John Howard experiences heavy losses at the state level in many states.
He claimed state and federal issues were separate matters. Was he wrong?
by confessions on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:41 pm
BBS
That right, its more likely 14-15 months as hanging onto the death isn’t taken very well.
by bluegreen on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:41 pm
CC
According to Tony Abbott they should.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:42 pm
confessions. i’d hate to say JWH was ever right……..
by middle man on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:42 pm
People are transposing experiences of 16 and 11 year old governments onto one that isn’t even 5 years old. I urge caution.
by Mithrandir on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:43 pm
And TROLLS OUT AT MIDNIGHT
by zoidlord on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:43 pm
night all. off to kiss the cherubs goodnight and hope that before they know whats happening Abbott had been and gone, and that not too much damage has been done by him.
by middle man on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Would you have us seriously believe that mobile only households vote differently to those that have a landline? What a self delusional load of rubbish. Essential are showing the same trend and they do it online .
by blackburnpseph on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Guytaur
I expected this result, actually I expected worse with the Slipper/Thomson beat ups. But these are their last two cartridges. They fired both barrells and got a movement of just 3 either way. Now there they have nothing left. Seventeen months to go and nothing left, how hilarious.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:44 pm
PTMD. nothing left? are you sure???
by middle man on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Hahah… the rationalisations become more and more rickety.
Maaaate… the problem is gillard, plain and simple.
by Thomas Paine. on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:45 pm
bbp
Yes they are different. Mobile only households tend to younger age bracket and technologically savvy with better access to information.
This makes for skewed results for this poll.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:46 pm
TP. its not just gillard. i doubt any leader could repair the damage done.
by middle man on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:46 pm
For us, yes… but it just amazes me that so few people here have cottoned on to that!
by Mod Lib on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:46 pm
TP. actually i’ll say now… there is no one the ALP can put forward who could turn this around. its a sad day.
by middle man on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Puff … Nothing Left … Remember that it was this government that created both Slipper and Thomson. The political track record suggests that they can shoot themselves in the foot a few more times between now and the next election.
by blackburnpseph on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:48 pm
PUff
Yes I agree. I am just pointing out to the gloating Libs they are gloating too much on the basis of a skewed poll. Skewed through methodology. Pointing to other polls does not change the methodology of this one.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Yet another reason to buy The Australian tomorrow morning
Gillard is the soufflé that has never risen…
TP
If they can’t stomach going back to Rudd….surely they’ll get Smith or Shorten to save the furniture?
This election result could be as big as Holts win in 1966!
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:48 pm
A wholly over-simplification of what she’s actually been accused of. PBers can re-acquaint themselves wth Sophie’s dillemma here.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/sophies-choice-the-professor-the-politician-and-the-family-feud-20110922-1knbz.html
And are you really equating traffic offenses with allegedly dudding an old man’s offspring out of their rightful inheritance?
by confessions on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:48 pm
I think back to how before the Rudd assassination Julia Gillard’s surrogates were showing around internal polling showing how under Rudd Labor was going to do horribly. And how confident Gillard sounded – so arrogant, so sure of herself – when she became PM and told us all how she was going to fix things – to fix up the government that had lost its way.
And just look at her now. Oh, how I love it. She is a disaster. The months go by and she tries and she tries but the people just aren’t having it. They’ve made up their minds. They don’t want her.
And how embarrassing it is for her – how shameful – to be doing this badly when your opponents are an absolute joke and are led by a man who should be unelectable in any ordinary circumstances. Oh dear oh dear, what is Labor to do?
They’re going to get rid of her, the only question is will it be a fresh face or the Ruddster back again.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:48 pm
@50 Confessions – JWH wasn’t wrong – however the ALP wasn’t ending up using Maxicabs to transport the ALP Parliamentary Party.
by Compact Crank on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:49 pm
I can see what is going to happen here.
Every few months as nothing changes, or there is MOE move in the polls, people will be saying that in few month things will begin to turn around….and so on…and that closer to the election things will be better. Like a driver driving on empty, telling themselves they can still get across town.
by Thomas Paine. on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Not to mention Morgan Face to Face….and not to mention what anyone will hear if they turn the computer off, walks outside of their home, and speak to any Australian voter!!! You get the impression that the ALP heavies just go from Sussex street to their mansions and back, without encountering any voters.
by Mod Lib on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:49 pm
LSL. i doubt Rudd will be back.
by middle man on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:50 pm
Sorry TP, Gillard was the problem. Labor destroyed kev to keep her as PM and as such Labor is just as much the problem as Gillard. There is no “out” any more. MAD
by rummel on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:50 pm
Hi Thomas Paine and Mod Lib, 2 against 10 thousand
by vera on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:50 pm
Guytaur
You seem to miss the point that newspoll has demographic brackets on age and gender – and the brackets are quite narrow. They keep going until they get the demographic quota. Which part of that do you not grasp?
by blackburnpseph on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Hey LIEberals. Guess what today happened. There were crowds, real crowds out cheering the Prime Minister. QandA happened.
Oh and a little thing called Clive Palmer happened.
I think you better rethink your gloating.
It is not over until the fat lady sings.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:51 pm
rummel
the real question is not Slipper but will Gillard cry during her concession speech?
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Glen
Why 66 rather than 75?
by blackburnpseph on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Have we become like nazi germany at the will of abbott,brandis and abetz,
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1646513/Thomson-distances-himself-from-HSU-East
by Schnappi on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Oh for heaven’s sake people! If I had a dollar for every time you lot turned up here at the sight of bad polling hand-wringing and wailing away, I wouldn’t have to work.
Polls go up and down. Up. And. Down. They capture a representative snapshot in time. There is a long way to go to the next election, and a lot can happen between now and then Remember 2009 and the Labor vote? A lot can happen.
by confessions on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:52 pm
bbp
It does not matter. Mobile only households are UNREACHABLE by Newspoll. It does not matter what their age bracket is.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Also we’ve heard ALP internal polling suggesting….
0 ALP seats in WA and QLD!
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:52 pm
TPP was almost 57% and who knows it could get as bad but test you are right the LNP won more seats in 75 than 66.
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:54 pm
They would have cheered Ivan Milat if he had promised the money
by blackburnpseph on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:54 pm
I have no idea why everyone is giving it up. It’s not as though we didn’t expect this. Julia Gillard and the Government have just come through one of the most toxic periords of political bastardry I have ever seen in this country. They are still standing. You must always remember one thing…despair destroys, confidence creates.
At the risk of gaining WB’s ire i reckon that after hacking a murdered girls phone, politicians computers and the Heavens only know what else, nudging an opinion poll in the right direction, in a country of only 23 odd million, spread apart, with the ownership of the home phone plummeting, would be childs play. Pay it no heed. Ultimately these polls will be shown up to be as flawed as the political philosophy that engineered them. Just keep this in mind. All it takes is one person of courage, to speak out, to bring it all down on their heads. One person of courage. They may possibly be reading this now.
Remember what they are trying to do. In essence they want to render your birthright…the value of your vote…worthless.
Democracy may be flawed…but is the greatest gift you can give your childrens children….and consider the moral fibre, ethical make up and the empty courage that those who wish to steal it away.
by Ian on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:54 pm
Its done. Nobody likes her.
by bluegreen on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:54 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Gotta agree! I reckon it really will be time to start to get concerned when Labor is getting towards the 10/90 2PP figure.
Might be worth while having a look at plan B then!
by scorpio on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:55 pm
@TP/60
Thomas you haven’t learnt from anyone from the UK have you?
Murdoch would back any party THEY THOUGHT They have a chance to win…..
That means they have INFLUENCE in politics for MONEY.
@GS/83
I like how you do selectively…..
by zoidlord on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:55 pm
REMEMBER ML and others.
I am not disputing trend. I am saying this poll is an outlier. It is more negative and out of sync with trend because of two factors. The “dark cloud” over Parliament when this poll was taken and not being able to reach mobile phone users necessarily skew the results.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:55 pm
It is the Labor caucus that take polls too seriously, not the rest of us. We only take them seriously because we know that polls like this one are likely to force Labor to do something stupid (again).
by Leisure Suit Larry on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:56 pm
But Guytaur …. why ffs is a mobile only household going to vote differently if they are the same age and gender … it is a demographic sample … and why is the final newspoll before an election usually the one that is closest to the actual result?
by blackburnpseph on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:56 pm
I’m still waiting for Kev to take 15 ALP MPs and quit Labor and start up their own Party on the cross benches ala Lyons
lol
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:56 pm
Ian/86
+1
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:56 pm
So you’ve just made a mockery of your own claims.
I repeat what I said last night lamenting the absence of intelligent Liberals on this board.
by confessions on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:56 pm
The Coalition will no doubt be strongly considering a decapitation strategy.
So, the ALP has to now consider which seats it wishes to save. Do they just retreat to the 10% margin line or look at the talent it wishes to protect?
by Compact Crank on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:57 pm
bbp
Mobile only households general have the internet on. So like you they see lots more information than just the commercial and abc news served up on the tele and newspapers.
by guytaur on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:58 pm
new batteries for the torch… new batteries for the wireless… thats important. we’ll need to know when its safe to come outside again…
by middle man on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Gary Sparrow,
They’re not worried about those Glen. they intend to make up for them in Western Sydney!
by scorpio on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:58 pm