Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Monday, April 30, 2012

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

6396 Responses

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Pyne comes out and says he is a closet gay. He was simply “chatting up” Ashby, and asked for his contact details to continue the dalliance at a later time.

Well I have typed some whacked out tripe on PB over the year but this clears my very best by some distance.

by rummel on May 3, 2012 at 10:23 pm
How did sexual harassment in the Asby case morph into sexual discrimination? Yours is the first mention of dicrimination that I have seen just as I have not seen mention of sexual assault.

There is no mention of sexual assault, or sexual harassment in the Fair Work Act.

Ashby relies on the following sections (taken from his court documents):

Causes of action

49. The conduct set out in paragraphs 18 to 27, 30 to 36, 37 to 42 and 44 to 46 constitute adverse action by the Respondents against the Applicant, such conduct being becauseof the person's sexual preferences. The conduct is in the nature of sexual harassmentand is unlawful in terms of the Sex Discrimination Act 1984, and, insofar as the conductoccurred in Queensland, in terms of the Anti-Discrimination Act 1991 of Queensland, and, insofar as the conduct occurred in New South Wales, the Anti-Discrimination Act 1977 of New South Wales.

50. Further, the conduct set out in paragraphs 24, 34 and 35 were attempts to victimise theApplicant because he refused to have a sexual relationship with the Second Respondent, his employer and a person in authority over the Applicant.

51. Due to the conduct of the Respondents, the Applicant has suffered considerable stress,humiliation and illness and is currently seeking medical assistance.

Although he mentions certain anti-discrimination acts and mentions sexual harassment, these are red herrings (he can say anything he likes in these types of documents). Ashby’s action is based on the Fair Work Act provisions mentioned, none of which have anything to do with sexual harassment (go one, read them).

This is why it’s so important for him to mention that, in his contention, Slipper was after him for sex, and that because Ashby refused Slipper’s alleged sexual advances, then Slipper discriminated against him (too fat in a polo shirt, no harbour cruise).

Basically Ashby’s case is that an allegedly homosexual man discriminated against another homosexual man because the man discriminated against was a homosexual. It just doesn’t make sense and I’d think the case was as weak as piss on that basis.

by Bushfire Bill on May 3, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Well I have typed some whacked out tripe on PB over the year but this clears my very best by some distance.

LOL. Love it.

by Gary on May 3, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Schnappi

Thought the 2003 was a reference in support of ashbys sexual harrrassment claim while in the employ of slipper,even though ashby was unknown to slipper in 2003 ,unless something else is forthcoming,which to me seems slippers brief is going to ask how ashby knew anything about 2003 at all.

That’s correct!

by Dee on May 3, 2012 at 10:24 pm
sprocket @ 5342

out of left field

Conspiracy/cockup, conspiracy/cockup, conspiracy/cockup …..

It’s getting late, so I shall wish all a goodnight and vote [1] (cue spooky music) conspiracy.

by fiona reynolds on May 3, 2012 at 10:25 pm
BB -5325 Extremely well put.

by Rossmore on May 3, 2012 at 10:25 pm
sprocket @ 5342

out of left field

Conspiracy/cockup, conspiracy/cockup, conspiracy/cockup …..

It’s getting late, so I shall wish all a goodnight and vote (cue spooky music) [1] conspiracy.

by fiona reynolds on May 3, 2012 at 10:27 pm
This “terrible government” has an unemployment rate half that of the Eurozone and is the envy of the developed world.

by Toorak Toff on May 3, 2012 at 10:29 pm
The damage of false allegations or alibis cannot be underestimated.

In terms of alibis, in NSW, two stand out in respect of cold blooded murders:

(a) Alan Jones support of Andrew Kalazich who had his wife shot dead in his bed while Kalazich lay next to her – that caused a judicial inquiry which found the theories exonerating Kalazich to be complete bullshit and his conviction overwhelming;
(b) The band of do gooders who said Phuong Ngo was not involved in the murder of Labor MLA, John Newman. Bullshit theories from compromised experts lead to a judicial enquiry where the falsity of the alibis were again exposed.

by shellbell on May 3, 2012 at 10:29 pm
OzPol

Cabcharge is a public company listed on the ASX.

by blackburnpseph on May 3, 2012 at 10:30 pm
OPT

If I remember correctly the Liberals were desperate to shut down the Painters and Dockers Royal Commission. They were worried that Mr Costigan intended to go through the Liberal Party like a dose of Epsom Salts.

by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 10:31 pm
BB

agree the case is so weak ,which I believe the cabcharge which is more serious to slipper was thrown in.

by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Ok, this may be left field, but could be a plausible defence of Pyne being cooked up by the Lib brains trust .

Sounds like the making of a good comedy; a good series, in fact: Season 1 Utegate; Season 2 Cabgate?/ ?Broughgate/ ?Pynegate – but, I’d suggest, made by BBC, Channel 4, ITV etc who know how to carry it off!

by OzPol Tragic on May 3, 2012 at 10:32 pm
OPT

Barrie Cassidy said this morning there were a lot of pollies running for cover re the cabcharge stuff.

And I couldn’t help thinking there’d be a lot of cabbies running for cover too!
And from your post, it sounds like that thought could very well be true.

by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 10:35 pm
This “terrible government” has an unemployment rate half that of the Eurozone and is the envy of the developed world.

Every day this week has carried an announcement of job losses at this business, this factory, whatever.

by confessions on May 3, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Kezza2 @ 5343

Iam not sure where your ‘interpretation’ came from but it is a lot more dramatic and conspiratorial than the transcript in the link. Aggrieved business competitors are akin to lovers scorned … not terribly reliable witnesses.

Will not disagree that the military-industrial complex wastes huge amounts of public money (here and everywhere) and always manages to get off scot free. But $214 million for a study … interesting commentary tonight on Radio National that the present government decided in 2008 to buy new submarines but has done nothing since.. meanwhile 4 years have been lost and ther maintenance costs on the existing Collins Class are mounting fast.

by blackburnpseph on May 3, 2012 at 10:37 pm
A lot of job losses we are seeing now is due to business that was dependent on Howard Government Handouts. Bad management did not foresee that government pockets are not limitless. More of this will happen. However new business is taking their place. We just do not hear about the new business.

by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Sorry Forgot to mention high dollar too.

by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 10:40 pm
OPT and others

It is astonishing how often the eftpos machine in a cab “does not work” – after all there are small items like GST being recorded. Also astonishing how quickly they can be fixed when a wallet is tipped upside down and nothing comes out. Having had previous altercations over the issue I am in the habit of always checking when getting in that their machine “works”.

by blackburnpseph on May 3, 2012 at 10:42 pm
BBP

Well, do your own bloody research in future.
You asked a question.
I supplied an answer, which you obviously don’t want to hear.

Look at the wasted sums of money.
$22.6 billion as opposed to a $214 million study to get it right.

And the Coalition c0cksuckers complain about the cost of the NBN.

by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 10:43 pm
A lot of job losses we are seeing now is due to business that was dependent on Howard Government Handouts.

and some examples of this are?

by blackburnpseph on May 3, 2012 at 10:43 pm
This last paragraph of the Herald Story is telling.

[The AFP said yesterday its investigators had spoken to a number of potential witnesses and gathered information and that ”the AFP has now assessed that the matter requires further investigation”.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pyne-email-surfaces-as-coverup-claims-persist-20120503-1y1df.html#ixzz1toHiugQz

by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 10:44 pm
fess

Every day this week has carried an announcement of job losses at this business, this factory, whatever.

That’s cos bad news sells.

We never hear about the jobs created until the employment figures come out.

by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Think this helps and The sleaze was not even mentioned.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/greg-combet-calls-on-labor-mps-to-hold-their-nerve/story-fn7x8me2-1226346263993

by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 10:45 pm
I didn’t think PB could come up with a conspiracy theory to match the Abbott/ABC plot on Australia Day but I think that has been trumped tonight. However given the very strong assurances by Pyne that he was in no way involved in helping Ashby regarding Slipper if it does come out that he did then his career will be set back for some time. It will do Labor’s poll numbers a lot of good.

The next month or so promises to be interesting on a number of fronts.

by davidwh on May 3, 2012 at 10:46 pm
bbp

First Fleet. Losing Diesel subsidy and freight to rail as a result.

by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 10:46 pm
intended to go through the Liberal Party like a dose of Epsom Salts

Yeah! And he did! Liberals can be so hopelessly naive, in such a Toffy GPS Schoolboy way, when it comes to devising a cunning plan, and Costigan’s RC was an incredibly expensive one!

We three left Oz on 16 weeks of LSL. Read about its end in UK & European newspapers – along with the woeful state of the Oz Economy (under Howard), the drought and the collapse of commodity prices. And it was in every serious newspaper – some of which stretched my schoolgirl French (yuck) and Modern Languages Institute (TAFE) Italian.

by OzPol Tragic on May 3, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Kezza

A slightly misleading diatribe is not an answer – and if you bothered to read further you would see that I have not been condoning waste. If it was $14 million, even maybe $40 million but $214 million – that is a huge amount of money – what are they doing building a 1:1 prototype to see if it will sink and come back up again?

by blackburnpseph on May 3, 2012 at 10:47 pm
sprocket@5217,
My bad! :$ I was in a hurry to get the comment up before I headed out the door, and my son was trying to get me to remember how to tie his Jiu Jitsu Gi belt properly, at the same time as I was trying to compose my thoughts.

Of course you are correct, it is the House Monitoring System which brings the visuals to the House and beyond. Another far-sighted decision from Paul Keating to set it up. Of course the Coalition wanted to have none of it, it interferes with the construction of their conspiracies.

I guess I’ll have to go to the Naughty Corner now.

by C@tmomma on May 3, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Ahah! You can’t do the ‘Embarassed’ emoticon then.

by C@tmomma on May 3, 2012 at 10:48 pm
kezza 2@5369

Exactly right on the $214 million,bit like windsor do it right ,do it now to get it right.

by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Guytaur

First Fleet are blaming the supermarkets for squeezing margins – no mention of subsidies – or freight to rail. Note sure how much freight has gone to rail – drove into Melbourne late night a few weeks back – I was astonished at the almost unbroken line of semis going up the Hume.

Any other examples?

by blackburnpseph on May 3, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Labor and communication about the seriousness of climate change…

David Spratt, author of Climate Code Red, published in 2008, today wrote an article entitled The Climate for Labor Backflips
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/05/climate-for-labor-backflips.html#more

This year the federal government has been very quiet about climate change. Climate Change Minister Greg Combet’s most recent media release on climate was on 23 March.

That his statement was devoted to the coalition’s policy, not Labor’s, is indicative of the strategic failure that has beset Labor’s climate communications since 2008.

In 2011, the government did not construct a narrative about adverse global warming impacts on people’s lives as a reason for action and the carbon legislation. The ‘Clean Energy Future’ campaign – in which the word ‘climate’ barely rated a mention – did not go beyond selling an answer without ever elaborating the problem.

Combet, 23 March 2012 Media Release: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/minister/greg-combet/2012/media-releases/March/mr20120323.aspx

by Pegasus on May 3, 2012 at 10:50 pm
bbp

You caught me. I am hopeless at doing a Coalition style smear.
Of course business fails due to bad management. Nothing to do with Howard or Gillard.

Remember that for future debate.

by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Kezza

Job losses tend to be in big numbers , job gains in small numbers.

by blackburnpseph on May 3, 2012 at 10:53 pm
BBP

See: http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/2108

by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Thanks Guytaur!

BTW (Update) Fairfax Poll: Do you believe the Coalition has assisted former Slipper staffer James Ashby?

Yes. 76%
No. 16%
I don’t know.8%

Total votes: 27,064. CAST YOUR VOTE

Wow, 76%. That’s 3+ in every 4. (Up from 74% and 73% earlier).

by OzPol Tragic on May 3, 2012 at 10:55 pm
I guess I’ll have to go to the Naughty Corner now.

thats where many will end up I fear. Just on APH, I am a bit pedantic about what goes on there having been involved in some of the “plumbing” which makes it work. and having seen many of the PMs at close quarters,I agree PJK was the most far-sighted.

and depite her “fat arse” and “poor judgement” , JG is also far sighted.

by sprocket_ on May 3, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Guytaur

Businesses can fail for lots of reasons – poor management is one. The high dollar is not helping many companies at present – just as the GFC hurt others – recesssions in the past -lots of external factors beyomd the control of even the best management.

by blackburnpseph on May 3, 2012 at 10:55 pm
I’m starting to get what BB is talking about. There is is this early in the document lodged:

Sexual Harassment

4. Between January 2012 and March 2012, the Second Respondent made unwelcome sexual advances, unwelcome sexual comments and unwelcome suggestions of a sexual nature to the Applicant.

That’s from the document. I see your point about it not being in the Fair Work Act (I haven’t checked but I see no reason not to believe you). But it’s certainly confusing when one of the first things Ashby brings up in his claim is a sexual harassment claim.

But this from the first page makes it clear what the charge is:

Document Lodged: Originating Application under the Fair Work Act 2009 Alleging
Discrimination – Form 81 – Rule 34.05(1)
File Number: NSD580/2012
File Title: James Hunter Ashby v Commonwealth of Australia & Anor

For those still wondering about Ashby’s claim against the Commonwealth, it’s here:

8. The Commonwealth thereafter failed to take reasonable and effective steps to prevent the Second Respondent from utilising his office to foster sexual relationships with young male staff members.

The rest are claims against the Commonwealth through Slipper – presumably actions pursuant to their failure to deal with Slipper earlier.

by Aguirre on May 3, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Pegasus,

The carbon scheme legislation has passed both houses, what more do you want?

A carbon price of $46.00 per tonne maybe, or an emissions reduction target of 25% by 2020

Don’t worry Peg, if the wins, you will have the greatest ever friend the environment could possibly ever have.

Can’t wait

by Centre on May 3, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Ha government going to draft another white paper because there stripping all the money out.

White paper 2013

Dads army.
A RAAF SQN of sopwithcamels
And the RAN pasha bulka

Don’t Panic! Don’t Panic!

by rummel on May 3, 2012 at 10:57 pm
bbp

We are in furious agreement. However do note that poor managers look around for someone else to blame. e.g. I view Harvey Norman comments on GST exclusion as an example of this.

by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 10:58 pm
I guess I’ll have to go to the Naughty Corner now.

For PB Night Patrollers, that’s where the liquid refreshments are.

by OzPol Tragic on May 3, 2012 at 10:58 pm
BBP

Job losses tend to be in big numbers , job gains in small numbers.

Last post to you tonight, my friend

If you note the last unemployment rate was steady at 5.2%
Jobs were lost during the period, and jobs were created.

How do you think the rate remained the same?

by kezza2 on May 3, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Although I do not support anyone being abused,itseems the lady is supporting the murdoch abusers who do worse.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/twitter-abuse-directed-at-louise-mensch-could-be-illegal-7711191.html

by Schnappi on May 3, 2012 at 10:59 pm
kezza2,

u need to also factor in the number of people who give up looking for a job.

by Pegasus on May 3, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Kezza

Job losses tend to be in big numbers

200 here, 500 there

job gains in small numbers

lots of twos and threes

The overall numbers are not rising but the losses are overwhelmingly in Victoria and NSW, and of course, the mining sector cannot get enough people.

by blackburnpseph on May 3, 2012 at 11:02 pm
@Peg/5382

Combat was talking about it today on the radio – not sure why it hasn’t been updated.

by zoidlord on May 3, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Hey Joe Hockey news for you. For years it has been said the only way to fix Collins Class is a complete redesign. Patch up jobs just make more expense and do not fix the problem.

I am responding to a quote Hockey made on ABC radio News.

by guytaur on May 3, 2012 at 11:02 pm

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