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Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition's two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for

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Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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6396 comments

6,396 thoughts on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

  1. Interesting that the Noalition are now bleating about the subs project.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/australias-next-submarines-may-be-better-imported-than-built-locally-says-coalition/story-e6frg8yo-1226346641438

    [But opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey said a $214 million commitment towards early stage design work should not rule out overseas construction of the submarines.]

    So JoHo wants to commit the bulk of the spending on this project to be paid to a foreign country. Good one Jo.

    [South Australian Liberal MP Jamie Briggs backed the assessment, saying the final decision on the submarine project should hinge on “whatever is in Australia’s strategic interests”.]

    Courageous stand for a SA polly i would think?

    [“I would have thought this is a defence issue, not an industry policy issue,” Mr Briggs said.]

    In what Universe are big military procurement programs NOT industrial policy issues you twerp??

    Now if we partner with another country that has conventional sub building experience we may find that some of the boats out of the 12 are built overseas, OR as in the Canberra class project some of the ship is built overseas, the rest here, and fitting out and commissioning happens here.

    There are lots of permutations and a substantial study to work out the best combinations is money well spent i would have thought.

  2. [Sorry, I thought ‘Kongen’ sounded strange. ‘Jongen’ it is. Literally translated from the Dutch, ‘Jongen’ would be something like a ‘Youth’.]

    Media savvy, positive and now we find he’s younger than his self (as a friend of mine used to put it) as well!

    Perfect!

  3. Dan,

    Thanks for the Hat tip. Good article. Thank heavens for bloggers, otherwise this nonsense would go down unchallenged by our more illustrious (or should that read infamous) real world journo’s, who haven’t got a brain cell between them.

  4. [The carbon tax is due to come into effect on July 1 and will operate at a fixed price for three years before moving to a fluctuating trading price in 2015.

    However there will be a floor on how low the price can go.

    Mr Oakeshott was part of the committee that developed the scheme.

    He wants the floor price scrapped and says he is prepared to consider moving a disallowance motion in Parliament to overturn it.]

    I wonder……

  5. Haven’t many of you in here been trumpeting the budget as the start of Julia’s supposed great comeback, which will culminate after July 1 with a carbon tax compensation windfall inspired political funeral of Abbott & Rudd? 🙂
    Gary is backtracking on that already?

  6. [Hardly, it’s being presented as a horror budget by the government themselves]

    Last year, Wayne Swan carried on about a tough budget – and it wasn’t. This years may be – we will wait and see on Tuesday night. But if not as bad as talked up – the government have shot themselves in the foot politically by talking up the negative when not saying much would have been better.

  7. C’mon Bludgers.

    Off yer behinds and get into the ABC.

    Just sent this to ABC Consumer Affairs and Complaints:

    [“I was somewhat shocked to find the following partisan headline marring what was an otherwise fair and neutral article on your News 24 website today: “Gillard-Fluff.”

    I note that this headline has now been removed and replaced with “Focus-On-Food-AS-PM-Turns-To-Asia”. Presumably this was done after a number of complains like this were made.

    This sort of thing is just unacceptable. It is a gross violation of the ABC Charter.

    What I’d like to know is how did the offending headline ever get to be placed on your website? Is it somebody’s idea of a joke? Is it ABC policy to allow whoever is responsible for it to have free-rein to publish what ever nonsense takes their fancy?

    I’m pretty sure I’m not the only one seekimg answers, too.

    Oh, and a copy of this complaint has been sent to Senator Conroy’s office. No doubt he’d like an answer too.

    I look forward to your explanation.”]

    If you don’t make your feelings known, they’ll keep doing this sort of thing.

    So get stuck in.

    I’ll let you know of any response I get (tho, it could take weeks).

  8. Hope pyne and ashby drank from a poisen chalice,pynes memory loss is obvious to get off like godwin gretch for having a mental problem,,really do not think memory loss qualifys.

  9. [Still it does not look good to the public.]

    Which was exactly what Liberals/ O’Farrell hoped would happen. If you didn’t want that to happen, you would not have posted what you did!

    IOW, you implied – and drew – negative attention to a person’s exercise of one of the most significant rights in democratic law. And that was after weeks of the Liberals trashing an even older right in democratic law: Innocent until found guilty by the lawful judgement of his peers.

    As I said, if you are so contemptuous of such democratic rights that you support those who trash them for naked political ambition, then you should live by your own “standards”; try N Korea.

    My parents lost family in last centuries’ wars to defend those freedoms, one grandmother her favourite brother at 2nd Battle of Messines Ridge. My father-in-law’s only sibling died of war wounds sustained NG 1942. In my school class where classmates who lost parents (a set of twins, both parents) flying with RAAF/RAF squadrons; at Tobruk, in the Banka Is massacre, at Milne Bay and Hellfire Pass, in Changi – just to have Liberals like Abbott – and you – crapping all over all the democratic rights they died defending, while big-noting themselves on every occasion commemorating them and other dead in two world wars.

    IMO Utterly contemptible!

  10. [Pyne didn’t “use” the email address.]

    We’re not quite sure about that. In Pyne’s words, he “did not email Mr Ashby after March 19th”.

    He received Ashby’s email around 11pm on March 19th, one minute after he asked for it. Does anyone know if Pyne has stated that he didn’t send Ashby an email on March 19th?

  11. [http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-04/oakeshott-wants-carbon-tax-base-price-scrapped/3991396]

    So the carbon base at $15 a tone is to high yet the carbon tax at$23 is good. So Labor is going cripple aus busines and voters for a few years. Oakeshott is starting to see the folly of gillards tax through a clean clear gas.

  12. Plaudits for your always erudite and insightful contributions, BB

    I’m not sure I’m convinced about Prissy’s lighter duties though. Doesn’t that make him a tool too? Is that likely?

    Meanwhile, has anyone noticed how the ABC24 is running a story about how the banks aren’t really safe and could collapse just as easily as Pyramid – especially if China’s economy suddenly falls drastically, and if, simultaneously, the price for commodities drops into a well, and then if bank customers hear whispers and suddenly panic and withdraw all of their funds!!! Talking about tools! I can’t decide who must be behind it all. Surely the banks wouldn’t shoot themselves in the foot…. But our Shadow treasurer and the evil others certainly have form in talking down our economy.

  13. There is a cross over in the policy discussion between off-the-shelf and industry issues. The discussion does not make sense unless someone sits down and itemises the opportunity costs which are simply enormous, depending on the option chosen.

    The difference in off-the-shelf subs and exactly the same subs built here would be around $30 billion dollars, these figures being rubbery.

    Essentially, we would be propping up a very small industry at the opportunity cost of a raft of hospitals, universities, renewable energy generation, etc, etc…

  14. ALERT!! HAZARD WARNING!! Abbott is harrassing the citizens of Port Macquarie – thought you should all be aware of this fact…. guess he’s here because of the iron man event.

  15. The Fin, no doubt reflecting the nefarious influence of Mr Stutchbury does a lot of militaristic chest beating and so on and so forth. Except for a small article by Mr Toohey who writes today to igore all the chest beating and so on and so forth.

    The only issue raised by the military push in Australia that does concern me is whether the electronics upgrade for the Super Hornets is going ahead. IMHO, that is crucial. The Fin said it was not. Does anyone know?

  16. [God I’m getting it from both sides of the fence today. Must be the sun spots.]

    David: I am going to come out of the closet here and say I am a long-term admirer of your intestinal fortitude in the face of occasional full-on hostility.

    The fact that you retain a sense of humour is doubly admirable 🙂

  17. this from senator conroy just now – perhaps pbs on twitter can tell him what they’d like to see on our abc

    Stephen Conroy ‏ @stephenconroyau
    @woolkebb Yes, we rule the media with an iron fist. They obey our every whim or face violent retrobution. What would you like to see on ABC?

  18. IMOHO

    [Meanwhile, has anyone noticed how the ABC24 is running a story about how the banks aren’t really safe and could collapse just as easily as Pyramid – especially if China’s economy suddenly falls drastically, and if, simultaneously, the price for commodities drops into a well, and then if bank customers hear whispers and suddenly panic and withdraw all of their funds!!! Talking about tools! I can’t decide who must be behind it all. Surely the banks wouldn’t shoot themselves in the foot…. But our Shadow treasurer and the evil others certainly have form in talking down our economy.]

    It is reasonable to discuss the risks of investing in the banks or in lending money to them by way of deposits.

    While the banks have undertaken some deleveraging, they are vulnerable to any or all of: a downturn in China, a collapse in commodity prices, a plunge in Australian house prices or to the cost of money pursuant to o/s banks withdrawing capital from Australia pursuant to the new global capital adequacy rules.

  19. Wowsers.

    The Derp is number 1 on Google’s search results for the following terms

    [joe hockey is a buffoon
    hockey is a buffoon
    joe hockey buffoon
    hockey buffoon ]
    Only half an hour after posting the article.

    (Sound of Dan’s chest swelling with pride).

  20. [The CO2 tax will not make any difference to the Global or Australian Climate – nil, nix, nada, nothing. The Public are not stupid.]

    I was on the phone to another supplier today. She was whingeing about the Carbon Tax to me.

    I pointed out that, with a 7.4% extra discount about to kick in, this will offset the CT increase on my electricity bill by all but $56 in $230. I said I could find the extra $56 without any problem by just not getting my car washed, or not buying a pizza once or twice a year for dinner (yes, pizzas are expensive in Beecroft, but delicious).

    I also noted that I turned down our off-peak hot water from 75C to 60C, and that this would save maybe $200 a year. “Why didn’t I think of this before?” I asked rhetorically, “You don’t even notice it!”

    She told me she turned her microwave and TV “Standbys” off to save power, but had never thought of the hot water angle. She said she’d ask hubby to look into it.

    She was VERY surprised to find that the CT was so small (about $200-sh before compensation for an “average” household). We went through some other ideas for cutting back on electricity. It became a “fun” game.

    At the end of the conversation I pointed out that the nett result of this would be to

    (a) reduce costs

    (b) save on energy (less fossil fuels used).

    She sounded quite upbeat about the whole idea. She went from an anti-CT person to someone who was keen to not only fightback against it by conserving energy but to being in favour of saving energy for its own sake. No mention at all of Global Warming required.

    If people like Hank Jorgen start out by firing up the oldies about how much they can save (making the point that the compensation is fixed and they can keep the balance) this could be a way forward.

    There is no question that many are in the dark as to exactly what compensation they are entitled to. The government not only can, but must advertise this, or else many will miss out. By making saving on carbon consumption more a “fun game” than a chore, by urging people to game the system and come out ahead, the government could turn this whole “Carbon Tax” thing into a plus, rather than the negative it’s become.

    The cardinal rules:

    1. Stay positive. This is fun because it’s free money.

    2. Suggest that individuals can come out ahead by being smart(arsed).

    3. Only mention Climate Change amelioration as ONE of the benefits.

    Intro to ad…

    [Hi, you may not know me. I’m Hank Jorgen, General Manager of Centrelink and I’ve got a couple of billion dollars to give away.

    This may surprise many of you, but most Centrelink clients don’t have to do anything at all to receive their share. They’re already registered for benefits.

    For those of you who might have to register, here’s how you too can get your entitlements from the government’s carbon compensation package…]

  21. OPT

    You stated above that you can decline an interview, ‘unless arrested.’

    I would have thought that you can decline an interview all the way until you are actually in the dock under trial.

    I don’t know the answer to this but am curious.

  22. [OzPol Tragic
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 12:21 pm | Permalink
    Pyne concedes he may have sent email

    IMO, not the sort of thing that would easily slip one’s mind! Seems most Fairfax online readers aren’t swallowing the story.

    Update: Fairfax poll
    Poll: Do you believe the Coalition has assisted former Slipper staffer James Ashby?
    Yes. 77%
    No. 16%
    I don’t know. 7%

    Total votes: 35355.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pyne-concedes-he-may-have-sent-email-20120504-1y2oh.html

    Bet the Terror is he he” sorry” they aren’t running with this story they could have their poll 96% to 4% (can’t be too blatant} that the voters believe Pyne

  23. [Lyne Lady

    As far as I am aware, all the Stephen Conroy twitter addresses are fakes.]

    Zoomster – you are correct, he is not on twitter

  24. [Just as we have become a minerals and energy giant, Australia can be a great provider of reliable, high-quality food to meet Asia’s growing needs,” she said.

    ..

    She says Australia needs to become a leader in the area of food production.

    “Building our food processing industry “]

    The PMs words (courtesy of Cuppa’s kindly inserted link).

    Only problem is that agriculture and mining are now often fighting for the same land – Hunter Valley, Liverpool Plains, Darling Downs – the government has been silent on the issue (so have the Libs and Nats – only Katter and the Greens have gone in to bat for agriculture).

    The second is that food processing is going offshore at a fast rate. Has the PM not noticed that thousands of jobs have gone offshore or will nothing stand in the way of a warm and fuzzy speech.

  25. [Lyne Lady
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 1:00 pm | Permalink
    ALERT!! HAZARD WARNING!! Abbott is harrassing the citizens of Port Macquarie – thought you should all be aware of this fact…. guess he’s here because of the iron man event.]

    Glad our get PB together is next Friday not today, we might have all been in Jail for hassling him, sure other PBs would post the bail or at least send us a nail file

  26. Boerwar,

    It is reasonable to discuss the risks of investing in the banks or in lending money to them by way of deposits.

    While the banks have undertaken some deleveraging, they are vulnerable to any or all of: a downturn in China, a collapse in commodity prices, a plunge in Australian house prices or to the cost of money pursuant to o/s banks withdrawing capital from Australia pursuant to the new global capital adequacy rules.

    Oh well that’s alright then.
    ABC24 is doing us all a wonderful service by reminding us of just how vulnerable our banks are and how any day now, at any time, Pyramid could happen all over again – maybe we should take all of our money out now – just in case.

  27. MTBW

    [davidwh

    I may be wrong but I suspect you may have a little knowledge at least of the Law. Could you tell me the reasons why would anyone decline a Police Interview?]

    Reasons are various but what you say may be used in evidence eg admissions you make. If you say (a) in the interview, your credit can be challenged if you say (b) in court

  28. It’s Hank Jongen.

    Not Kongen, nor Jongren nor Jorgen.

    Jongen. Say it a few times (the “J” is usually pronounced as “Y”, but I don’t know what convention Hank uses).

    Jongen

    It’s his name. Please get it right.

  29. Danny 5873 I enjoy the interaction and often learn something I was ignorant of. A sense of humour helps a lot as well. It also pays not to take yourself too seriously.

  30. [I doubt Labor would use the Centrelink CEO (or anyone from the public service) in advertising.]

    Well, Hank doesn’t seem to have any problems going on 2GB, and regards it as part of his charter. It’s his job to advertise benefits.

  31. Thanks cuppa.

    No point in just whining about it here.

    Complain and demand an explanation.

    Otherwise they think they can get away with it.

  32. BB
    [Well, Hank doesn’t seem to have any problems going on 2GB, and regards it as part of his charter. It’s his job to advertise benefits.]
    It’s his job to explain benefits.

    To use him in an advertising campaign would rightly open the “politicising of PS” claims.