Gotta get down on Friday
The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:
• A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspoll’s 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowan’s 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnett’s favour, compared with 43-30.
• The Australian reported this week that Queensland election exit polling conducted for a private client by Liberal pollsters Crosby Textor gave Kevin Rudd ratings of 38% approval and 35% disapproval, Julia Gillard 20% approval and 60% disapproval, and Tony Abbott 30% approval and 41% disapproval.
Preselection activity remains at a high pitch:
• Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, “a former soldier who now works with disabled people”, is “well entrenched among the party’s branches”. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a “grassroots” candidate who would “do the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapers” suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.
• The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.
• The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was “a policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaign”, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.
• The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Ruston’s Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophon’s bid for re-election.
• Richard Willingham of The Age reports that Jason Wood, who was unseated by Labor’s Laura Smyth at the 2010 election, is the favourite to win Liberal preselection in La Trobe.
• The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Western Australian Politics
Schnappi
Yes indeed
by victoria on May 5, 2012 at 11:32 pm
After a billiant day, Bludger, my eyes and brain are insisting on rest. I look forward to catching you all on the flipside!
Nite.
by Space Kidette on May 5, 2012 at 11:33 pm
The PM is making education and workforce skilling her thing.
It’s been obvious for a while that’s what she’s doing.
by confessions on May 5, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Sk
Same here.
Night bludgers
by victoria on May 5, 2012 at 11:34 pm
Goodnight SK.
And on that note, I’ll bid you all goodnight also.
by confessions on May 5, 2012 at 11:35 pm
my local govt run kindy up here in the electorate of Griffith is $710 per term. thats for a 5 day fortnight attendance.
by middle man on May 5, 2012 at 11:35 pm
Advice for Tony, Christopher and Mal …
http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=better%20get%20a%20lawyer%20son&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CGEQtwIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DvEB0l6OqLR4&ei=_yylT8GBCc-UiQetuf2VAw&usg=AFQjCNEh6Dp9OKXBfMpctIvfUidfH1dM1g
by Rossmore on May 5, 2012 at 11:39 pm
middle man.
Kindy should be free. We need more mining taxes.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 11:43 pm
$710 per term. It doesn’t cost that or anything near that as far as i am aware to send your child to high school for a year in S.A. let alone kindergartens.
by enjaybee on May 5, 2012 at 11:44 pm
After trawling through all the news out today it looks like the situation is basically the same as it was following the Brough revelations very early this morning. That means we are waiting for more revelations that either or both dispute the version of events outlined by Brough or more clearly tie the federal opposition to the events or for the criminal and civil matters to develop further one way or the other.
Looks like tomorrow will be another day of impatiently waiting for something further to break.
by davidwh on May 5, 2012 at 11:46 pm
i got the fees from the website of the not-for-profit kindy where we have our son’s name down … for 2014!! it’s madness.
by middle man on May 5, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Tuesday for Slippers short statement i think, unless anyone gets nervous and blabs to try and cover their arse before then.
After that, well, awaiting to see if it actually does get to a prelim hearing on the 21st?
by imacca on May 5, 2012 at 11:54 pm
Davidwh ….1459 or WTTE …. over the last 12 hours it’s not got any more diabolically worse than it could be
But nice effort anyway, keep your chin up and all that
by Rossmore on May 5, 2012 at 11:58 pm
imacca
Think your right,however with abbott and abetz gone to ground,think they would plot for something else to destroy a positive budget surplus,no cost is too much for abbott to his personal gain.
by Schnappi on May 5, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Poss’s succint and brilliant summary of Claire Harvey article:
Possum Comitatus (@Pollytics)
5/05/12 11:45 PM
Apparently this passes for political analysis these days
bit.ly/J72bY1
by Super on May 6, 2012 at 12:01 am
Make no mistake Abbott and Pyne will be deeply worried tonight …. Burning the candles and pondering how to limit the damage and keep their jobs.
Meanwhile Hockey, Bishop and Turnttable will be dreaming sweetly of their day in the sun again….
by Rossmore on May 6, 2012 at 12:04 am
Perhaps wishful thinking, but will April 2012 mark the beginning of the end of the present LOTO?
by Rossmore on May 6, 2012 at 12:12 am
La Stupenda is back to unions knows nothing about abbott.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/need-for-speed-on-union-reforms-20120505-1y5iw.html
by Schnappi on May 6, 2012 at 12:14 am
Broughs new story. Less abbott denials of the denials,although the journo did not say so directly
http://www.smh.com.au/national/broughs-new-story-on-slipper-20120505-1y5lb.html
by Schnappi on May 6, 2012 at 12:34 am
Seems fairfax is going with two journos,one from smh the other from the age,now to compare both.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/05/04/gotta-get-down-on-friday/
by Schnappi on May 6, 2012 at 12:40 am
Sorry if have missed others comments on this, but, is this young Ms Crabbe’s most incoherent effort yet? Has she started drinking more than she can deal with?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/sinking-a-myth-of-chivalry-20120505-1y5ix.html
by Marrickville Mauler on May 6, 2012 at 12:41 am
Should be this ref: for previous post
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/brough-denies-he-lied-on-ashby-20120505-1y5zs.html
by Schnappi on May 6, 2012 at 12:42 am
Can’t get this out from behind the AFR Firewall, but it sounds interesting:
http://www.afr.com/p/national/ashby_shock_and_raw_tactics_7175hhT8l89EjuCjGrkISJ
by C@tmomma on May 6, 2012 at 12:42 am
Marrickville Mauler,
I think Ms Crabbe drank too much Kool Aid a long time ago. Although, to be fair she’s giving Eddy Everywhere a run for his money these days…Kitchen Cabinet, Randling, The Drum, Fairfax and ABC columns. So maybe she is just running on empty?
by C@tmomma on May 6, 2012 at 12:46 am
Some more budget details: http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/budget-drills-deep-to-shorten-dental-queues-20120505-1y5nx.html
by rishane on May 6, 2012 at 12:52 am
C@tmomma,
Seems the trial by media continues with a slant to clearing the liberals of a slippergate,will have to wait to see what pete says on tues,or what his lawyers say in court,ashby will face more than a few sympathic liberals,or tricky politicians he seems to win over,not suggesting any of the libs involved are also gay,but nothing will surprise in this case.
Hoping the case will be abbotts biggest day of shame,just like his mentors very punlic announcement of grestest shame day of his life.
by Schnappi on May 6, 2012 at 12:53 am
Eric Campbell from Foreign Correspondent is giving Samanatha Maiden and News Ltd a right bollocking on Twitter tonight.
by Burgey on May 6, 2012 at 12:59 am
Interesting and ‘brave’:
by C@tmomma on May 6, 2012 at 1:06 am
About News Ltd’s climate change coverage I should say.
by Burgey on May 6, 2012 at 1:06 am
Schnappi@1475,
This might interest you then:
by C@tmomma on May 6, 2012 at 1:07 am
Night all that are left!
by C@tmomma on May 6, 2012 at 1:08 am
c@tmomma actually answered that
by Schnappi on May 6, 2012 at 1:13 am
Perhaps it might even become a more recognisable narrative to our media friends if they were willing to grant ‘clean air’ for once.
by rishane on May 6, 2012 at 1:15 am
We paid for this crap,anyone know who wrote it.
Why does this make a change he was a national in everything but name,the courier mail is also running with such garbage.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-05/nationals-mp-crook-joins-coalition/3993420
by Schnappi on May 6, 2012 at 1:30 am
WOWIE. Mine in country South Australia is $ 75 a term. $80 if you pay late
The curriculum is fantastic; the staff simply brilliant.
Best kindy my kids have been to by a long shot.
by Danny Lewis on May 6, 2012 at 6:20 am
I’ve been wondering for while where Ashby fits into the LNP picture pre-Slipper employment.
In the Brough article it mentioned that Brough knew of him as a “local party member” in the same article that he insists he only met him 3 times. The question is, does “local” mean the electorate of Fisher or just an electorate nearby?
I don’t think it can be Fisher because it appears that even Slipper didn’t really know him before he started courting him for a position in his office. You’d think that as an ambitious Liberal, Ashby would have been attending local meetings and making a name for himself at branch level at least.
Is it possible he lives in Somlyay’s electorate and is active in HIS branch?
Just throwing it out there …
by Danny Lewis on May 6, 2012 at 6:30 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
I find it hard to locate anything worthwhile to post form Oz on Sundays, In the meantime have a look at this very unusual dancing from a couple of Indian guys.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/05/05/video-mid-day-distraction-indian-dubstep/
by BK on May 6, 2012 at 6:31 am
A very good New Rules segment from Bill Maher.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-maher-tears-into-romney-for-giving-money-to-mormon-church-instead-of-directly-to-charity/
This woman, Jan Brewer – Governor of Arizona, makes our Puff Adder seem like an angel.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/05/arizona-gov-jan-brewer-si_n_1481404.html
by BK on May 6, 2012 at 6:48 am
Mike Papantonio exposes the Republicans’ poor record on national security.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101726425
by BK on May 6, 2012 at 6:51 am
Schnappi @ 1483
Indeed this is an absolute farce and disgrace. Since immediately after the 2010 election the MSM have almost without exception included Crook in the LNP tally when comparing it to the ALP numbers.
Here we are in mid 2012 and the fools at the ABC post a headline. ‘Pressure on Labor as Crook joins Coalition’
by CO on May 6, 2012 at 6:58 am
What astute political analysis!
by BK on May 6, 2012 at 7:00 am
FFS! All the bloody journos have been counting Crook in the Coalition’s numbers every day since the 2010 election!
The stupid just got a lot stupider.
by Danny Lewis on May 6, 2012 at 7:11 am
I’m not sure if any other cynic has mentioned this, but Labor converting the Education Tax Rebate into a twice yearly payment conveniently gives Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey something else they will have to repeal in order to balance their books
by Danny Lewis on May 6, 2012 at 7:13 am
The government are on a win-win with this: money in the pockets of people who need it and a stick to beat the Opposition over the head with the next time they talk about rescinding/winding back the NBN, Carbon Pricing or the Mining Tax.
All those duckies are lining up …
by Danny Lewis on May 6, 2012 at 7:15 am
@abcmarkscott “Pressure on Labor as Crook joins Coalition” as usual #TheirABC into expressing opinion than reporting – http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-05/nationals-mp-crook-joins-coalition/3993420
by The Finnigans on May 6, 2012 at 7:18 am
Well, I guess Labor wanted Crook as a technical independent to even out the party-tied seat numbers.
Now that Crook’s joined the mainstream, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander: the Coalition can crow it has a formal majority of party-tied seats. It’s not even any more.
Abbott now has a majority he can go to Quentin Bryce with.
All he has to do is move and pass a No-Confidence motion, and he’ll be PM… oh… wait a minute…
by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2012 at 7:21 am
Tony Abbott knew:
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/brough-denies-he-lied-on-ashby-20120505-1y5zs.html#ixzz1u27rplW9
by The Finnigans on May 6, 2012 at 7:32 am
Wow! I was just reading the reader comments on the $820 Payment story in the Telegraph.
I’m sure they’ve been mentioned before, but such carping negativity and determination to see the absolute worst in everything, even straight out cash gifts, is striking.
WARNING: people with blood pressure problems DO NOT READ.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/parents-will-receive-an-820-payment-for-every-schoolchild/comments-e6freuy9-1226347607402
by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2012 at 7:40 am
BB
Hadley would be proud of his flock!
by BK on May 6, 2012 at 7:42 am
Good morning, Dawn Patrollers.
Hope you’ve had a good night’s sleep & are feeling better, BK.
Danny. Ashby was a something or other – ?publicity manager – on a strawberry farm in Slipper’s electorate. He was also such an avid Liberal his anger outbursts over journos’ questions made the Sunnycoast daily – the phone rage incident is his latest.
When I get time, I’ll trawl through the online archives and try to find the date of the Cabcharge incident where the girl handed a cabbie a blank CabCharge “voucher” purportedly signed by Slipper. Hadley’s claims (I haven’t read Lewis’s) re Cabcharge were grounded in his having used a book of numbered “vouchers” (ie use should be numerically sequenced) apparently discontinued while Howard was still PM. Slipper’s use of cabcharge since then is astronomic making his still being in possession of 5yo voucher books in 2012 very unlikely.
Here’s today’s Sunshine Coast Daily update. It tends to be more informative-gossipy than the major papers (politically it’s cuddled up to Ghengis) and does give the Mal B’s latest re first contact (though I doubt the headline’s an accurate reflection of said person Brough comes clean
Second & third meetings are ‘explained’ in the quite long article.
Note no mention of harassment allegation in the first meeting; it’s all CabCharge – Fisher Libs’ “Unseat Slipper; install Brough” strategy since 2008, so far to no avail!
Brough was in Howard’s inner circle (when he wasn’t in deep dodo on some other matter) so would have known about the 2003 sexual harassment charges against Slipper. They appear to have been so hushed up by Howard himself that only insiders knew about it.
Suddenly, very similar accusations are made by Ashby – with hitherto unsuccessful Cabcharge allegations as a secondary complaint.
So the timeline is now: Ashby has “drinkies” with Pyne on 19 March and rings Brough on 23 March – … That’s a month before the accusations become public.
Brough says he’ll call back, speaks to his wife who agrees to be a witness at any meeting. (Why? Because Ashby already has “form” for violent temper outbursts, inc phone rage? Because?????) Brough says that, during the meeting, he advised Ashby to get legal advice. Over another Cabcharge accusation – the latest in a 4 year Brough & Lib mates campaign to roll Slipper?
It doesn’t smell of dead fish, it reeks dead prawn bait left in a creel in the sun when the family went off for a long weekend & forgot to clean out the creel.
by OzPol Tragic on May 6, 2012 at 7:45 am