Gotta get down on Friday
The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:
• A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspoll’s 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowan’s 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnett’s favour, compared with 43-30.
• The Australian reported this week that Queensland election exit polling conducted for a private client by Liberal pollsters Crosby Textor gave Kevin Rudd ratings of 38% approval and 35% disapproval, Julia Gillard 20% approval and 60% disapproval, and Tony Abbott 30% approval and 41% disapproval.
Preselection activity remains at a high pitch:
• Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, “a former soldier who now works with disabled people”, is “well entrenched among the party’s branches”. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a “grassroots” candidate who would “do the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapers” suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.
• The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.
• The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was “a policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaign”, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.
• The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Ruston’s Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophon’s bid for re-election.
• Richard Willingham of The Age reports that Jason Wood, who was unseated by Labor’s Laura Smyth at the 2010 election, is the favourite to win Liberal preselection in La Trobe.
• The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Western Australian Politics
Oh dear indeed. There goes another Gillard safety net.
by rummel on May 6, 2012 at 11:04 am
ru
That was my guess as well.
Quiz question
What is the derivation of the word “gossip”?
by Diogenes on May 6, 2012 at 11:04 am
Btw has Abbott popped his head up yet? I have to step out, and dont want to miss him saying that this Slipper saga is a stinking putrid mess!!
by victoria on May 6, 2012 at 11:04 am
Well, a nice change, anyway.
by Fulvio Sammut on May 6, 2012 at 11:05 am
The headline for Howes’ artcilce should really say
We woz wrong to ditch Rudd, but don’t bring him back coz I likes Julia (even though Oz doesn’t)
by bluegreen on May 6, 2012 at 11:05 am
bluegree:
I too thought Whish-Wash was a great choice. Very mainstream.
Of course, if people like you and I approve, then perhaps Greens voters won’t?
by confessions on May 6, 2012 at 11:06 am
ML@1547:
That’s a bizarre claim. BB’s post was all about the likelihood of Brough using Ashby’s claims (whether true or false) for his own benefit, instead of just giving him some good advice and otherwise staying clear.
And just to be clear on this: Ashby is a complainant. He’s not a victim at this stage. In all sexual harassment cases – this was especially so with the recent David Jones one – public opinion shifts about markedly as more information comes to hand. For instance, when we found out exactly how much money she was asking for, a sizeable proportion of the country thought she was a gold digger. That’s the way these things work.
Sure, Ashby’s got his right to his day in court, and nobody’s denying him that. But we also have a right to question and doubt his claims.
If it was exactly the opposite, if he was an ALP staffer and having chats with past and present ALP figures, my advice to him would be to drop the case and get the hell out of there and stop damaging the party. I’m giving him a bit more leeway than I might otherwise, partly because he has the right to at least put the claims to the test, and partly because I don’t mind watching LNP figures wading further and further into the muck.
by Aguirre on May 6, 2012 at 11:06 am
Oops. I mean Whish-Wilson.
by confessions on May 6, 2012 at 11:06 am
bluegreen @ 1704
That about sums up the situation.
by bemused on May 6, 2012 at 11:07 am
So now you think a pollie telling a pollie of the other party that they are drowning is sexual harassment?
Wow, this place becomes stranger and stranger by the day. I guess the 116:34 seat House of Reps from current polling has really hit hard here!
C’mon guys, lets get real for a bit, or better still, I am off to the real world for a bit, so feel free to stay in the parallel universe of PB for a bit longer…
by Mod Lib on May 6, 2012 at 11:07 am
Pretty accurate summary of TLM, BB.
Actually I reckon rather than a Kabuki performance, Ashby’s cobduct thus far is more akin to a Mary-Joe choreographed Hokey Pokey.
You put an allegation in,
which you hope you can make-out
You talk to Steve Price
and you shake it all about.
You do the Hokey-Pokey
and you turn around,
That’s what it’s all about.
You spot a cabcahrge here,
and a cabcahrge there,
You have a drink with Chris
when your boss, he isn’t there.
You do the Hokey-Pokey
and you turn around,
That’s what it’s all about.
You claim you’ve been harrassed
when the Speaker calls you fat
you spill your guts to Malcolm
and he offers you an out.
You do the Hokey Pokey
and you turn around,
That’s what it’s all about.
by smithe on May 6, 2012 at 11:08 am
Confessions
I thought you had made up a derogatory nickname already
by bluegreen on May 6, 2012 at 11:08 am
confessions @ 1707
Your typo cracked me up…
by bemused on May 6, 2012 at 11:09 am
smithe
I am loving It!!
Anyhow off for a while. If Abbott bobs up I am sure he will remind us of all the stinking putrid mess he is in!!
by victoria on May 6, 2012 at 11:09 am
I dont mind Bob Brown. he got gut & integrity. Dont trust Milne. Horsey worships Milne
by The Finnigans on May 6, 2012 at 11:09 am
Greek political news in lead up to election.
http://www.athensnews.gr/category/8
by guytaur on May 6, 2012 at 11:10 am
bg:
No, a genuine error. An unfortunate side effect of having a name which immediately invokes popular slang or slogans – you just think of the slogan.
I reckon the poor bloke gets that all the time.
by confessions on May 6, 2012 at 11:10 am
ML
You’re right. If I was a Kabuki actor, I’d be mortified.
by Aguirre on May 6, 2012 at 11:11 am
Mod Lib,
Pyne and Hockey’s words are those of immature morons. However, their behaviour to shout, scream and harrass the PM while she was simply walking the corridors of Parliament House is the behaviour of criminal stalkers.
My point this morning is the hypocrisy of Hockey when accusing the Government of not taking the harrassment claims seriously when he clearly indulges in far worst behaviour on a regular basis.
The main difference between the two cases is that there do not appear to be any independent witnesses to ascertain the the Ashby allegations. However, the harrassment of the PM was widely witnessed and an account appeared in the MSM.
I can’t say I’m surprised that you would be trying to rationalse/excuse the appalling behaviour of the Lib Harrassers. Hypocrisy seems to be a core value of Liberals.
by Greensborough Growler on May 6, 2012 at 11:11 am
Bemused
I can’t believe the vacant naivety of Howes. Who made such a political amateur Kingmaker?
by bluegreen on May 6, 2012 at 11:11 am
(Geoff D Posted Sunday, May 6, 2012 at 9:57 am | Permalink
Did others notice that ModLib @1547 9:08 almost exactly quoted Hockey from Insiders before Hockey said the words? Is the line that .. how would we react if the Ashby was a woman.. a Coalition speaking point or a Hockey speaking point?)
O are you thinking she is an insider geoff in tne know of current speak
Or if she is he / is he joe,:-)
by my say on May 6, 2012 at 11:12 am
ML
No. And I don’t consider someone saying ‘you look fat in that shirt’ to be sexual harrassment either.
by zoomster on May 6, 2012 at 11:12 am
This wouldn’t be the same article treated with such derision by Poss would it?
by confessions on May 6, 2012 at 11:13 am
bemused
no one. Just because someone tells you they’ve done something doesn’t mean they did it.
There’s a lot of good publicity involved in claiming you were in on something when you weren’t.
by zoomster on May 6, 2012 at 11:13 am
bg @ 1719
The mystagogues of the NSW Right.
He should STFU and disappear into obscurity.
by bemused on May 6, 2012 at 11:14 am
BB 1540
Do we actually know if that was the first option?
An alternative would be that the appointment of his PR company was the first step?
by Laocoon on May 6, 2012 at 11:15 am
Wish wilson is from the north
As u have no idea how people think in the south i will leave u to ponder,
I would never vote for him
This is about the mill/ mainstream really
by my say on May 6, 2012 at 11:16 am
bluegreen
Actually, I often wonder how many here read what William puts at the top of the thread, like this:
Howes and much of PB just live in some sort of counter-factual parallel universe.
by bemused on May 6, 2012 at 11:16 am
What’s best is what’s surfacing in the UK about contact with politicians – documents & verifiable leaks, inc emails, phone records, bank records etc. verifying how much contact, its form & content.
Though the UK’s (and poss other countries’) declaration/s of Not a fit and proper person to own … is significant for reining in Murdoch & his managers, editors and reporters.
by OzPol Tragic on May 6, 2012 at 11:17 am
Aguirre,
Yes, Mod has this dishonest habit of misrepresentation. Being simply unequipped to win a fight fairly, Mod resorts to blatant distortions of his opponent’s argument. You will find this in just about every one of Mod’s posts.
It’s the Abbott method in action here on PB.
by drake on May 6, 2012 at 11:18 am
bemused,
And leave the future to treacherously disloyal toads like yourself?
by Greensborough Growler on May 6, 2012 at 11:18 am
Is there a Tasmanian civil War?
by bluegreen on May 6, 2012 at 11:19 am
finnigans
milne might be milder than nsw rhiannon
potentially fractious, still dreaming of 1917
by geoffrey on May 6, 2012 at 11:19 am
A niche business that is performing well in Australia is immigration detention services.
Serco Auistralia, the private company and a division of a British multinational runs Australia’s detention centres. This year it again has experienced a huge rise in net profits.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/detention-firms-profits-booming-20120505-1y62y.html
Why is Serco not held to the same standards as other businesses?
by Pegasus on May 6, 2012 at 11:20 am
my say:
The Greens need to preselect candidates who appeal to mainstream voters. I see Brown’s replacement as very much a mainstream candidate.
by confessions on May 6, 2012 at 11:20 am
bg
South and North Tasmanian rivalry is akin to Sydney Melbourne.
by guytaur on May 6, 2012 at 11:20 am
GG @ 1730
I have never choreographed the dumping of an ALP Prime Minister and replaced that person with someone who has proven to be an electoral disaster.
by bemused on May 6, 2012 at 11:22 am
Labor needs to muscle up – http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/labor-needs-to-muscle-up/story-e6frezz0-1226347622421 – hear, hear. Them nervous nellies should just STFU & let PM Gillard governs with the BISONs
by The Finnigans on May 6, 2012 at 11:24 am
As the senate is made up if people that are well know, brown fought many battles that where state wide, got lots of respect state wide for issues like the iraq war, global warming.
His office is i hobart , he is seen here in the street ect.
Wish wilson is from the launceston are a or there abouts
the family name well known here for years but a
Very northern name
by my say on May 6, 2012 at 11:26 am
The Finnigans @ 1737
Can you give us an update on how that is working out?
by bemused on May 6, 2012 at 11:28 am
sshhhhhhhh, dont tell Horsey
by The Finnigans on May 6, 2012 at 11:28 am
http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/rising-fast/peter-whish-wilson-announced-as-bob-brown-s-replacement/201205041314
by my say on May 6, 2012 at 11:28 am
i dont deal with
by The Finnigans on May 6, 2012 at 11:29 am
The problem for Ashby in his civil claim is that it’s now apparent he was being disloyal to his employer and working for or with those in direct opposition I that employer.
He then brings the sexual harassment claim based largely on “I said, He said” allegations to which his credibility is central. I would expect his has taken a hit. I’d be surprised if it doesn’t settle quite quickly now.
Must say, the other Slipper staff member stepping aside is a very interesting development.
by Burgey on May 6, 2012 at 11:30 am
Pul Howes is a comedic genius.
http://tinyurl.com/bwfarjk
by bemused on May 6, 2012 at 11:31 am
When do the French presidential election results start coming through?
by Diogenes on May 6, 2012 at 11:31 am
my say, it’s good to see Tassie has a deep North as well
by The Finnigans on May 6, 2012 at 11:32 am
So which part of Tasmania is pro-Slavery?
by bluegreen on May 6, 2012 at 11:34 am
As someone who worked for over two years on the Your Rights at Work campaign, I like to counter the mythology that Labor trumpets about the Fair Work Act.
Brian Boyd Secretary Victorian Trade Halls Council, 17 April 2012:
http://www.vthc.org.au/inside-trades-hall/secretarys-report/index.cfm
by Pegasus on May 6, 2012 at 11:35 am
Deep northwest, also
The southerns mostly favour the mill shock horror to u all
The appoitment i would think us about the mill
Its a different place to live than the mainland
U do t get itn till u live it.
by my say on May 6, 2012 at 11:35 am