Gotta get down on Friday
The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:
• A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspoll’s 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowan’s 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnett’s favour, compared with 43-30.
• The Australian reported this week that Queensland election exit polling conducted for a private client by Liberal pollsters Crosby Textor gave Kevin Rudd ratings of 38% approval and 35% disapproval, Julia Gillard 20% approval and 60% disapproval, and Tony Abbott 30% approval and 41% disapproval.
Preselection activity remains at a high pitch:
• Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, “a former soldier who now works with disabled people”, is “well entrenched among the party’s branches”. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a “grassroots” candidate who would “do the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapers” suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.
• The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.
• The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was “a policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaign”, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.
• The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Ruston’s Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophon’s bid for re-election.
• Richard Willingham of The Age reports that Jason Wood, who was unseated by Labor’s Laura Smyth at the 2010 election, is the favourite to win Liberal preselection in La Trobe.
• The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Western Australian Politics
That’s not a basis, that is just conjecture. What do you know about Slipper, that Gillard should have known; that causes you to say it was a bad decision.
What should Gillard have known about Slipper that should have ruled him out as a candidate for consideration to the Speakers chair?
by JohD on May 5, 2012 at 12:03 am
CP status granted to the ministers as individuals.
by This little black duck on May 5, 2012 at 12:03 am
Mod Lib, I actually like Slipper in his role as Speaker… including his gowns etc….. I don’t give a stuff if he has upset the Party he formerly belonged too. The more independents the better i think.
by swamprat on May 5, 2012 at 12:04 am
George Brandis SC should be watching this and then handing in his SC.
by This little black duck on May 5, 2012 at 12:04 am
Interesting that you claim “pure obfuscation” just above quoting me saying that if Pyne had indeed encouraged Ashby making an unfounded allegation that would be a big issue!!! Ironic.
Actually, the subject was what the ALP was going to do post-Gillard. I have been happy to discuss the burning issue of whether Pyne asked for an email or not, given some here need a little bit of fresh air from the current polling situation, but it is not me changing the subject!
When you have something to discuss about Pyne or Brough doing something illegal please share- that would indeed be a massive story.
by Mod Lib on May 5, 2012 at 12:05 am
Swamprat
+1
by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 12:05 am
M’Ludd sports a wry smile.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 12:06 am
Oh Dear!!!
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/speakers-adviser-helped-his-rival-20120504-1y4ph.html
by spur212 on May 5, 2012 at 12:06 am
M’Ludd speaks with authority
by swamprat on May 5, 2012 at 12:07 am
M’Ludd speaks with authority
by swamprat on May 5, 2012 at 12:07 am
And Mod,
Your obfuscation really is becoming a bit tiresome. I’m not inclined to play games, so if you want to debate me you’ll have to leave the bag of tricks at home. Otherwise, it just becomes a waste of time.
by drake on May 5, 2012 at 12:07 am
swamprat and tlbd
+1
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 12:07 am
duckie
GB should be watching this and using his SC for toilet paper.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 12:08 am
A subject not worth talking about at this stage. I think we need to see how the latest issues of Slipper and Thomson turn out. This thing with Slipper is slowly turning to shit for the Libs. You get the feeling there is more to come.
by Gary on May 5, 2012 at 12:09 am
Is Leveson back?
by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 12:09 am
Meanwhile, back at the Rancid Ranch:
I think, guytaur, that MB is launching a pre-emptive strike to distance himself from Ashby and Pyne.
by This little black duck on May 5, 2012 at 12:10 am
I just bolded that bit because my claim is that she’s entitled to make that decision. Which she is. I don’t believe I’ve said anything about the wiseness of it.
That’s because it entirely depends on the outcome of the Ashby claim. If her only misjudgement was not foreseeing that someone might try to fit Slipper up, that’s not a misjudgement at all. There are two ways to look at this:
1. Slipper slipped up. Ashby’s claim is entirely correct.
2. The entire thing was cooked up as a way to get back at Slipper for defecting.
The first would be an indictment on Gillard. The second would be a massive indictment on the LNP. This is why it’s so important to establish who knew what about Ashby, the reasons for him taking the position with Slipper in the first place and for placing his harassment claim, and what the nature of his contact with Pyne and Brough has been.
I can see why you’d want to sweep those aspects under the carpet instead of taking an interest in the facts of those incidents. But I think they’re crucial, not only for the ALP but more importantly for Slipper himself, who has a right to clear his name before people go dragging it around in the mud.
It’s an unconscionable attitude to take to say that Gillard made a mistake recruiting Slipper to the speakership simply because his reputation could be the victim of dirty politics. If you’re not saying that, then I’d suggest you can only call it a bad decision if Ashby’s claims are proven.
by Aguirre on May 5, 2012 at 12:10 am
spur
That is the Herald story I mentioned. Interesting Canberra Times got it first.
Wonder which online paper is going to have the Brough interview with salacious details.
Allegedly including a “honeytrap”
by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 12:11 am
JohD:
You assume that the only reason not to make Slipper Speaker would be if he had criminal or civil charges against him. If you want to excuse Gillard from any responsibility for knowing anything about someone she wanted to make Speaker of the House that is your right, however, I suspect the public may not be so forgiving. I am certainly not!
Irrespective of whether Slipper is found guilty of anything, I can’t imagine he will ever sit in the Speaker’s Chair again.
Its about politics and impressions and “the vibe”.
Politics is an unforgiving game, and Gillard aint gonna be forgiven. She is politically gone, its just a question of who wants to be the next deckchair on the titanic.
by Mod Lib on May 5, 2012 at 12:11 am
To quote Rolf Harris, he’s just passed by.
by This little black duck on May 5, 2012 at 12:11 am
spur212
The water is getting murkier and murkier.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 12:11 am
Mod,
You edited my response to the first part of your answer into the second part of your answer to misrepresent it.
Like I said Mod, it’s becoming tiresome.
by drake on May 5, 2012 at 12:13 am
What? Getting a new PM is not worth talking about????
This is a political blog isn’t it….or have I walked into a legal blog? It is not the prerogative of ALP insiders to decide on the Prime Ministership of this country behind closed doors without little old voters getting to discuss who the candidates might be.
by Mod Lib on May 5, 2012 at 12:13 am
Let’s see what the vibe is like if the Libs are seen to be up to their necks with setting up Slipper.
by Gary on May 5, 2012 at 12:13 am
Well, to me the main issue is he is a good speaker and they should get him back. He makes Parliament work a bit better.
by swamprat on May 5, 2012 at 12:14 am
All hypothetical. At least with the Slipper and Thomson issues they are happening.
by Gary on May 5, 2012 at 12:14 am
If the honey trap story is true the there is a good chance the Slipper matters will resolve in Slipper’s favour very quickly and possibly even by Tuesday. Any MP involves should resign immediately.
by davidwh on May 5, 2012 at 12:14 am
Mod Lib
think the libs do the same ,and abbott got elected leader on a tainted toxic slipper vote,should resign.
by Schnappi on May 5, 2012 at 12:15 am
drake:
You accused me of ignoring the possibility of Pyne getting Ashby to make false claims just above quoting me saying if Pyne got Ashby to make false claims that would be massive news.
If you are tired, go to sleep- don’t tell me not to point out what you did.
by Mod Lib on May 5, 2012 at 12:15 am
ML
Wrong. That just raises the question of the ethics of Mr Abbot in withholding information vital to protecting the Respect of the Office of the Speaker for his own venal political gain. It sheets back to Abbott every which way. Gillard did nothing wrong by appointing the best Speaker of the House the public has seen. In the process increasing the Respect for the Office of Speaker.
by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 12:15 am
Thank goodness the ALP is not governing for the vibe.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 12:15 am
Too true David. If they are LNPers it won’t be a good look for them. We’ll see if it pans out that way. It is all beginning to smell rather bad.
by Gary on May 5, 2012 at 12:17 am
davidwh,
If the honey trap story is true, and we don’t know yet, but if it is – Ashby’s case is gone.
by drake on May 5, 2012 at 12:17 am
Mod Lib
The voters get no say in who is the Prime Minister.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 12:17 am
Mod Lib
is this Blog behind closed doors??? Hardly as even I lurk here.
You are also constitutionally incorrect the PM is decided by Parliament…., “little old voters” have never in 110 years elected a PM. Indeed, cannot under our constitution. You seem to be again misled by the Libel Party HQ
by swamprat on May 5, 2012 at 12:17 am
There goes your earlier claim that there’s “no meat on the Pyne bone” and so therefore it doesn’t matter about him, or wtte.
by confessions on May 5, 2012 at 12:18 am
sorry mis-type not Libel Party .. Liberal Party tsp tsp
by swamprat on May 5, 2012 at 12:18 am
You may be disappointed if you actually look at what I posted….
I said he was politically damaged, and he would have lost some skin. I just said that I thought he would survive it and remain in his position when Parliament resumed.
At this stage, the only thing he has done is forgotten that he sent a text message.
by Mod Lib on May 5, 2012 at 12:20 am
Actually the PM is chosen by the party in power. It came as a shock to many, but that is an indictment of the education system. Civics should be taught in 1st year high school.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 12:20 am
Drake no argument from me there. I also believe that any MP who had knowledge of the matter is not fit to hold office. But I am not going to make any assumptions of who may be involved if this turns out to be true.
by davidwh on May 5, 2012 at 12:21 am
Latest effort by Steve Lewis.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/embattled-speaker-peter-slipper-left-cabcharge-paper-trail/story-e6freuy9-1226347287698
by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 12:22 am
Mod Lib
But it is the politics, the impression and the vibe, don’t you know?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 12:23 am
The hubris of the ALP machinists!
Yes, I do understand the technicalities, but who is up there heading the show has a big impact on how voters vote- it certainly will for me.
Go ahead and wish for a quiet period in which no-one interrupts and pesters the ALP as it decides on how to move into the post-Gillard period, but I don’t like your chances. The media missed the last leader to be knifed, so they will be looking all over the joint for the knives this time around…
by Mod Lib on May 5, 2012 at 12:23 am
Mod,
No, I never said anything about false claims (the point upon which your whole argument rests). I said:
So, once again – pure obfuscation.
It really is very tiring Mod and, as you have been amply warned, I’m afraid I am going to have to sit you in the naughty corner.
by drake on May 5, 2012 at 12:24 am
Penalty for12.5 million fraud.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/fraud-sentence-suspended-20120504-1y4kz.html
if guilty what would thompson get?
by Schnappi on May 5, 2012 at 12:24 am
God “embattled” is good.
I bet no journo even knows what ‘embattled’ means. What an appalling trade that is.
by swamprat on May 5, 2012 at 12:25 am
Swamprat
You gotta love it when a “paper trail” is suspect.
by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 12:28 am
davidwh,
I agree. We need to wait and see.
by drake on May 5, 2012 at 12:29 am
I’m a bit puzzled; what did anyone know about Slipper before he became speaker that should have ruled him out as speaker? If he was supposed to have acted improperly, rorted his entitlements in a criminal fashion, or in any way unfit for such a high office; who knew? If they knew, did they have evidence? If they had evidence, did they bring it to the attention of the proper authorities?
Abbott claimed that the incident in 2003 the Ashby lawsuit refers to “was different” because “there was no formal complaint made”. (I think I quote him accurately)
What this means in plain English was that it was deniable because it was swept under the carpet and buried. But the fact is he knew. Did he inform the Prime Minister? He was quite vocal about things when Slipper was appointed, why did he not bring it up to the Prime Minister in writing?
Would that not have been fulfilling his duty of care to his employer; the Commonwealth? Why does he believe he does not owe it to the Australian Public to protect them from the horror of having a serial sexual abuser and and all-round cad to the highest office in our Parliament?
How can he now, with a straight face, declare he it has brought our Parliament into disrepute, when he knew, and could have prevented it with a written affidavit? He could at the very least have let the PM know of the 2003 incident. That would have prevented Slipper from becoming Speaker, and embarrassed the PM. That seems not to have been on the agenda, they were playing their little game of Chinese checkers.
The problem, to use your analogy, is that when you play with ‘poo-poo, you get covered with sh*t. I don’t see any sh*t on the Prime Minister, despite your declaration that she is ‘smeared’ with it.
by JohD on May 5, 2012 at 12:29 am
Mod Lib,
I am asking you politely to refrain from the continual use of the knife and knifing analogies.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 5, 2012 at 12:30 am