Gotta get down on Friday

Friday, May 4, 2012

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:

• A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspoll’s 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowan’s 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnett’s favour, compared with 43-30.

• The Australian reported this week that Queensland election exit polling conducted for a private client by Liberal pollsters Crosby Textor gave Kevin Rudd ratings of 38% approval and 35% disapproval, Julia Gillard 20% approval and 60% disapproval, and Tony Abbott 30% approval and 41% disapproval.

Preselection activity remains at a high pitch:

• Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, “a former soldier who now works with disabled people”, is “well entrenched among the party’s branches”. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a “grassroots” candidate who would “do the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapers” suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.

• The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.

• The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was “a policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaign”, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.

• The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Ruston’s Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophon’s bid for re-election.

• Richard Willingham of The Age reports that Jason Wood, who was unseated by Labor’s Laura Smyth at the 2010 election, is the favourite to win Liberal preselection in La Trobe.

• The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Western Australian Politics

3270 Responses

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2139218/Local-elections-2012-Bloody-nose-David-Cameron-Labour-gains-800-seats.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/may/04/labour-ed-miliband-election-victories-delight

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 7:55 am
Good Morning Bludgers,

I have been blissfully un-media-aware? I have to say it is kind of serene in a media free world. Not getting angry at the media’s outright lies is a blessing.

So burst my bubble. What’s the goss on the Ashby affair?

by Space Kidette on May 5, 2012 at 7:56 am
Good morning, Bludgers.

Well rua, fredn, Lyne Lady, it always did reek of being Utegate Mark 2, and seeme to be getting moreso by the minute: Slipper accuser Ashby was secretly helping rival

The Saturday Age can reveal that James Hunter Ashby was actively promoting the preselection campaign of one of Mr Slipper's Liberal National Party political rivals in a series of YouTube videos while he was working as a media adviser to the Speaker.

The Saturday Age has also learnt that Mr Ashby held a secret meeting with another of the Speaker's political rivals and former Howard government minister, Mal Brough, just two weeks before his explosive claims against Mr Slipper were made public.

The subject of two videos compiled by Mr Ashby is a Sunshine Coast businesswoman, Peta Simpson, who intends - along with Mr Brough - to nominate for the seat of Fisher, now held by Mr Slipper.

Meanwhile, a Sunshine Coast LNP member told The Saturday Age that Mr Ashby met Mr Slipper's long-time political rival and former Howard cabinet minister, Mal Brough, on the Sunshine Coast in early April. At that time he was still working as Mr Slipper's press secretary. This information was backed by another senior LNP source, with yet another LNP member having written anonymously to party headquarters over their concerns about the meeting between Mr Brough and Mr Ashby

Lord, what fools these [Liberals] be

Wonder how long before Ashby’s lawyers drop him.

And only 2 more sleeps before Slipper lets fly in the House of Parliamentary privilege.

by OzPol Tragic on May 5, 2012 at 7:56 am
OzPol Tragic,

This information was backed by another senior LNP source, with yet another LNP member having written anonymously to party headquarters over their concerns about the meeting between Mr Brough and Mr Ashby

Hahahahaha! This Ashby affair is smellier than a fishmarket. Documentary evidence for the AFP. This is going to get messy for the LNP.

by Space Kidette on May 5, 2012 at 8:04 am
Mod lib,

What appears to be the reality, and this is pure opinion on my part, is that everyone knew Slipper was gay, they knew about the images of him and male staffers, but there were no formal allegations of harassment and so nothing was done. When allegations of harassment were made that needed to be taken to the authorities, and that is what happened. If an MP encouraged the alleged victim to do just that, then so be it. If they encouraged the alleged victim to make up the story, then a tonne of bricks is about to fall on their heads. Again, so be it.

So, “everyone knew Slipper was gay….” I challenge that statement on the basis that they didn’t bloody well KNOW anything – they may have suspected because of all the smear rumours doing the rounds. Back in 2003 a video turned up which precious few actually viewed and it has since disappeared – My suspicions are that the video was faked and so obviously faked that it was destroyed and no action taken.

Your accusations against the PM‘s judgement are as vicious as those of the town gossip who passes on smear and innuendo and causes no end of pain and suffering to many an innocent victim.

The coalition are such a bunch of fine upstanding christians, aren’t they?

by janice2 on May 5, 2012 at 8:06 am
Sad News
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/04/adam-mca-yauch-dead-beastie-boys-dies-battling-cancer_n_1477863.html

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:06 am
Look at the company Climate Deniers are in.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/04/heartland-climate-change-billboard_n_1478011.html

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:09 am
I know last night I missed the denial part of the “honeytrap” thing by Brough. It is however interesting that a News Limited journalist thought it was worth asking the question. An indication of the journalist thoughts on how this is all going. That is in my opinion something does smell here.

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:11 am
I’m still very stiff and sore and discovered last night that two front teeth had been chipped. What a bloody idiot I am!

G’day BK. Two chipped teeth is so not good! I did in some bones in my hand & little finger joint – thankfully all bulk billed.

Thinking of you up here. Wishing I could nick around with a few tubes of Feldine & OH’s last bottle of Duty Free Lagavulin, still unopened in its box on the sideboard: no one I know drinks it. Sad.

Hope the news from Slipper’s electorate cheers you up. We Qlders do keep saying what sleazy, bumbling dummies the SEQ Libs, esp “Easties”, are. And that Brough is not the sort of bloke you’d want as your MP.

Probably, after this, he may never be anyone’s MP ever again.

by OzPol Tragic on May 5, 2012 at 8:12 am
geraldine doogue on rn now about slipper case – very interesting

by Lyne Lady on May 5, 2012 at 8:12 am
I did hear that the US Academy of Measuring Ice or whatever name they go by their latest report shows Antartic ice is at record levels this winter.

Also that Piers A thinks CO2 a good gas but that’s hardly news.

by davidwh on May 5, 2012 at 8:13 am
BK,
Hope you mend soon. Me thinks we are going to have to appoint a minder for you to keep you out of trouble.

by janice2 on May 5, 2012 at 8:14 am
Sorry that should be Artic ice

by davidwh on May 5, 2012 at 8:15 am
BK,

You must have hit the ground pretty hard BK to have chipped your teeth. Hope your muscles stop complaining quick smart.

by Space Kidette on May 5, 2012 at 8:15 am
it’s looking more and more likely that slipper may not even need his parliamentary pension to live in the manner to which he is accustomed

by Lyne Lady on May 5, 2012 at 8:17 am
Even the ABC has come up with Ashby now, of course only Mal Brough nothing about Pyne , also reporting form The Australian and then straight to Brough and what he thinks thats Their ABC in action

by mari on May 5, 2012 at 8:18 am
Guytuar,
Sometimes i wish people who spread”joy, and beautiful ‘lyrics and words could live and stay young forever, robin gibb comes to mind also.
I posted a link for shellbell this week 1st of may, ‘but found my self listening to it over and over.

I suppose each generation has their season, of beautiful music

by my say on May 5, 2012 at 8:19 am
Thankyou Oz, janice and Kidette.
I think I do need a minder. That or slow down a bit!
But I am cheered up by the ordure starting to attach itself to certain Libs.

by BK on May 5, 2012 at 8:22 am
Brough on ABC 24 now. According to him he’s as pure as the driven snow.

by janice2 on May 5, 2012 at 8:22 am
my say

Beastie Boys had a hit that everyone likes. It hits that rebellion against the parents.
That fool in Melbourne took the idea to the extreme.
The song. “Everyone has got to fight for their right to Party”.

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:22 am
Geraldine

Now thereis a real lady of the abc, she must cringe at times

Life matters, never botbered with it when she left,”there was another lady with her she was great to,
Wish we could reclaim our abc

by my say on May 5, 2012 at 8:23 am
BK

I like your Spirit!!

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:24 am
As i said last night the ABC only started reporting this once NewsLtd supplied some suitAble lines.

by roaldan1000 on May 5, 2012 at 8:25 am
Mal Brough – The Man Who Couldn’t Wait…

by Burgey on May 5, 2012 at 8:26 am
Does anyone know if Peta Simpson – she who Ashby was promoting for Fisher – is any relation to Fiona Simpson – state member for Maroochydore and current Qld Speaker?

by hugh moran on May 5, 2012 at 8:30 am
Gosh bk does that mean caps and crowns, big coin,

by my say on May 5, 2012 at 8:31 am
Since its brough , will abbott be questioned about it and will he resign until this fiasco is settled

by Meguire Bob on May 5, 2012 at 8:31 am
Bob Katter has said he will not support a no confidence motion in the government.

by Burgey on May 5, 2012 at 8:31 am
Bob Carr ‏ @bobjcarr
This Ashby seems more rehearsed than a kabuki actor.
Collapse
8:28 AM - 5 May 12

by Leroy on May 5, 2012 at 8:31 am
I must admit I am looking forward to the Government presser on this Slipper thing. I do expect it wil be Emerson again.
Newsradio is not playing the Katter comments. Not the bit about Slipper. Just the bit about Tony Abbott should put up or shut up about No Confidence motions.

Katter reads the political wind well no matter what you think of his politics.

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:32 am
Leroy

Mr Carr is another who has a good turn of cut through phrase.

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:34 am
my say
I reckon I can get away with some epoxy fillings. At least I hope so.

by BK on May 5, 2012 at 8:34 am
Since its brough , will abbott be questioned about it and will he resign until this fiasco is settled

No standing aside / resigning in the face of concocted and / or totally unsubstantiated rumor that liberals and their mindless followers call convincing evidence or ‘smoke’ (implying there is definitely a fire) only applies to opponents of the liberals, they get the full benefit of the doubt up to and including the day they are in court. Obviously if they are convicted it is minor and ok and they are fit and proper to continue.

by WeWantPaul on May 5, 2012 at 8:34 am
Meguire Bob,
Most probably not. Resignations are only right and proper if it involves the Labor Party.

by janice2 on May 5, 2012 at 8:35 am
A handy bar graph provided here on London elections

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:37 am
Correction 434: national council elections not just London.

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:38 am
Next question.

If Brough was doing this out of the kindness of his heart and only helping Ashby why did Lewis become involved ?

by Doyley on May 5, 2012 at 8:40 am
David, if we had uploading like franks, i couod show photos i took in alaska, from tne ship. We cruised the coast. Off alaska
Of a glacier falling in to the ocean we virtualy watched it slide.
It was so huge it crashed to the depths. Parts where bouncing up as high as tne 4 th deck.
A scientist that gave us talk
Said tney had decided to say at anchor longer thst day as for some hours tber could her cracking
Noises, some of us remarked , goodness was that a rifle being fired some two hours later crash

by my say on May 5, 2012 at 8:41 am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/9247436/Cameron-faces-Tory-backlash-after-poll-drubbing.html

Cameron faces Tory backlash after poll drubbing
PM faces calls for major shift in Coalition policy after disastrous performance in local elections.

By Robert Winnett, Political Editor
10:26PM BST 04 May 2012

Voters across Britain rejected the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, leading to Tory backbenchers demanding that the Prime Minister drop unpopular policies such as gay marriage and House of Lords reform.

Amid growing tensions in the Coalition, senior Liberal Democrats blamed the local election rout on unpopular policies in the Budget such as the cut in the top rate of tax from 50p to 45p.

Both Coalition parties suffered heavy losses as they were apparently blamed by voters for a series of policy blunders including new taxes on pensioners, pasties and charity donations.

Labour gained more than 800 council seats and seized control of 30 additional local authorities including Plymouth, Birmingham and Southampton. The party also regained control of Cardiff and Glasgow councils.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/9242816/Local-elections-2012-results-map.html

Local elections 2012: results map
Live results map from the 2012 local elections in England, Scotland and Wales.

by Leroy on May 5, 2012 at 8:42 am
Bk 431 i hope so to

by my say on May 5, 2012 at 8:43 am
Cameron faces Tory backlash after poll drubbing

Couldn’t happen to a nicer person.

by WeWantPaul on May 5, 2012 at 8:44 am
Slept in this morning and missed the pancakes with maple syrup, it seems.

Why didn’t we search for this before?

A Peta Simpson Youtube video uploaded by none other than…. “jamesashby”

by Bushfire Bill on May 5, 2012 at 8:44 am
Link

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HdraMMoTko

by Bushfire Bill on May 5, 2012 at 8:45 am
morning bludgers

This has go to be the biggest laugh of the century!

Out all the gin joints, in all the towns, in all the world, he walks into mine.

Are we really meant ti be that Mr Brough!

by victoria on May 5, 2012 at 8:47 am
New post at The Daily Derp

Some questions as yet remain unanswered.

The first is in regards to the alleged $50,000 payment to Ashby that Vexnews claims to have heard of from "LNP sources". Was it Simpson or Brough that made this payment (if indeed it did take place)?

Also, was Pyne aware of both Ashby's extra curricular activities and the alleged $50,000 payment?

Was Abbott or any other LNP MP aware of these matters?

Obviously there is more information needed before judgement can be passed, but if these new revelations are confirmation that Mr Slipper was set up, there are a number of outcomes possible.

The first is that Simpson and/or Brough will lose the LNP pre-selection for the seat that Mr Slipper currently holds (Fisher).

The second is, if any sitting MPs are also involved (such as Pyne or Abbott), they will have to resign from Parliament, forcing by-elections in their seats. Due to the scandal ridden nature of their departure, voters may well choose an ALP, Greens or Independent candidate in that seat, further eroding the LNP's voting power in the House Of Representatives.

Once again, The Derp can only conclude today's update with the phrase that was used used to wrap up yesterday's article - "Watch this space".

Slippergate Update May 5 2012

by Dan Gulberry on May 5, 2012 at 8:48 am
So what’s the score now?

* Ashby talking to Lewis “for some time”.

* Ashby having in-depth chats with Brough.

* Ashby help Slipper’s rival, Peta Simpson, uploads Youtube promos in February.

* Pyne visits Ashby for dwinkies and gets his phone number but “doesn’t call him”.

* Half the LNP knew about it and some were very concerned, writing letters.

by Bushfire Bill on May 5, 2012 at 8:50 am
Oops believe!

by victoria on May 5, 2012 at 8:51 am
In the world of weird. Found while looking for Murdoch views on UK election.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4297732/Runaway-ostrich-visits-roadside-drive-thru-takeaway.html

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:51 am
The Liberal and National parties have shown themselves to be rotten to the core yet all their slime and mud is projected onto the shoulders of PM Julia Gillard. No matter what dirty tricks the coalition get up to, they and their media shovel the “putrid, stinking mess” they’ve created onto the PM and yell, “incompetent, no judgement, etc”.

If there are any fair-minded people left in the coalition ranks who still have a conscience, it is way past time for them to muster up a bit of courage and stand up for decency and truth.

by janice2 on May 5, 2012 at 8:53 am
Can Do legacy

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-05/city-councils-warn-of-carbon-tax-rate-hike/3993028

by guytaur on May 5, 2012 at 8:55 am

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