Gotta get down on Friday
The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:
• A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspoll’s 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowan’s 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnett’s favour, compared with 43-30.
• The Australian reported this week that Queensland election exit polling conducted for a private client by Liberal pollsters Crosby Textor gave Kevin Rudd ratings of 38% approval and 35% disapproval, Julia Gillard 20% approval and 60% disapproval, and Tony Abbott 30% approval and 41% disapproval.
Preselection activity remains at a high pitch:
• Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, “a former soldier who now works with disabled people”, is “well entrenched among the party’s branches”. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a “grassroots” candidate who would “do the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapers” suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.
• The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.
• The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was “a policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaign”, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.
• The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Ruston’s Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophon’s bid for re-election.
• Richard Willingham of The Age reports that Jason Wood, who was unseated by Labor’s Laura Smyth at the 2010 election, is the favourite to win Liberal preselection in La Trobe.
• The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Western Australian Politics
Was it a Datsun 180B?
Nah. That would have been stolen. Must have been a 120Y.
by Boinzo on May 4, 2012 at 9:20 pm
I’m guessing this didn’t get a very good response here?
Sounds like some in the ALP are looking for the elusive Plan B. Unfortunately, Plan B was well and truly neutralised in Feb…
So what happens now?
by Mod Lib on May 4, 2012 at 9:21 pm
mari
Lucky you! Dashed off your Powerball Jackpot winnings, I’ll bet!
This week, I’ve had 2 telling me to check “my criminal record” (attached). Weird, eh? I wonder how many they catch with that? Plus 5 (this morning) offering “support” ie gambling money
I love spam folders!
by OzPol Tragic on May 4, 2012 at 9:21 pm
btw does anyone recall Abbott and his weasel words “to my knowledge, no Canberra coalition members helped Ashby, “
by victoria on May 4, 2012 at 9:22 pm
Mod Lib
Tell me you are only jesting by quoting Richardson? If you are serious…nah…not possible.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 4, 2012 at 9:24 pm
@Mod Lib/50
You never learn, media want blood, they then get blood money from selling their paper.
by zoidlord on May 4, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Ozpol
I had a couple headed ‘arrest record’. I must sleepwalk or something.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 4, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Psyclaw
I thought it was interesting that on the day of the police raid, the police stated that in relation to Thomson they were not pursuing criminal activity.
Yet, unbelievably, Jackson stood on the media pulpit contradicting the police statements & not one, not one friggin media outlet called her on it.
by Dee on May 4, 2012 at 9:26 pm
victoria
Remember?
I had his words burnt into a wooden plank and nailed up in the town square.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 4, 2012 at 9:28 pm
so what day next week will the Ashby thing blow up?
by middle man on May 4, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Glad to see nothing has changed in 30 years.
by fredn on May 4, 2012 at 9:31 pm
They want blood, and more importantly, they can smell blood.
It is just a question of time and more importantly: WHO.
That is the question that I find most interesting. She cannot surrender to Rudd, which was my suggestion a year ago, after what she said in Feb.
The young up and comers are unlikely to want to poison their chalices.
The old and run down might have to step into the breach to minimise the disaster, and then they can resign and leave it to a newbie to fight back to a contestable position…
decisions, decisions…
by Mod Lib on May 4, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Mm
Wednesday of course. That would bury the budget for the General Public not following politics.
by guytaur on May 4, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Wonder Why?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/may/04/leveson-inquiry-rebekahwade
by Schnappi on May 4, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Nyaah! That was plan D (for “Drubbing”).
Plan B is “Tough it out: because, inevitably, some Liberal loonies, whose creative index is Absolute Zero, will think reprising Utegate (this time targeting Peter Slipper using a very slightly tweaked version same stuff used on him in 2003) is a well-devised “cunning plan!”
Note: No disrespect to Baldrick, Plan B is working a treat!
by OzPol Tragic on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 pm
You keep on coming out with this BS. If they want to make a change eventually they will make it. They may not even need a plan B.
by Gary on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 pm
As long as you don’t mean Crean
by bluegreen on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Mod Lib
Yeah the govt do smell blood. Who is going down Pyne, Abbott??? Will be interesting to see
by victoria on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Re my windfall coming
Think I will fly First Class now, as soon as I contact the Pastor, you always trust a pastor can’t you, plus a barrister to boot. No Puff sorry not donating the the Liberal Party benevolent $70 billion black hole, but of course would share with my PB friends, just send your bank details to me over in the Bahamas and I will immediately send your portion
by mari on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Ml/60
Good description of Liberal problems after Abbott has to resign.
by guytaur on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Labor would be absolutely delighted if the Libs ran Jason Wood again in La Trobe. Probably the biggest blockhead elected to Parliament in recent years.
by Psephos on May 4, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Nice “look over there” tactics ML.
by Gary on May 4, 2012 at 9:34 pm
@Mod Lib/60
I’d say it’s alot of hoopla.
by zoidlord on May 4, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Well at the moment my money is on Pyne, although there is now a late runner Brough, but watch out for the “fast” runner coming up the middle by the name of Abbott
by mari on May 4, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Probably whatever time Tuesday Slipper addresses the HoR from the Chair – under Parliamentary privilege – and tips the great big dunny can.
by OzPol Tragic on May 4, 2012 at 9:36 pm
middle man
It’s in Rabbott’s best interests to nail Brough.
Coalition heavy weights were touting Brough as the next great leader after Howard and I have no doubt that if he was parachuted back into fed politics Rabbott would be gone.
So, whose doing the slow drip feed on the Ashby affair?
by Dee on May 4, 2012 at 9:37 pm
so a tough budget completely overshadowed by a massive Lib implosion?? wouldn’t be the worse thing that could happen.
by middle man on May 4, 2012 at 9:37 pm
The WA Liberal party website still has Wilson Tuckey named as the Member for O’Connor.
You’d think they’d want to move on after his Unhinging, but apparently they are still happy to have him in the fold.
by confessions on May 4, 2012 at 9:38 pm
OPT very good point. I forgot about that. (we need a hands rubbing together emoticon)
by middle man on May 4, 2012 at 9:38 pm
mari
Schnappi says: You mean Glen?
mari: Sure Do,LOL,lewis in a bunker with Sen Milne.
Oh You Are Arwful.
by Schnappi on May 4, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Dee. also a good point.
i spent the day sitting next to an ex-Lib staffer for ex PM and last 3 LOTO. was a fun chat
by middle man on May 4, 2012 at 9:40 pm
mari
I’ve got a boxed trifecta on Pyne, Abbott and Brough.
by Dan Gulberry on May 4, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Jeeeebuzzz Mod. Easy on the cool aid. I’d say we’re about 72 hours from ashby exploding in your face. What is your plan B.
by Boinzo on May 4, 2012 at 9:40 pm
I am not sure there is any meat on the Pyne story actually.
Even if we make the following assumptions:
Pyne met Ashby
Pyne asked for his contact details
Pyne contacted him
Pyne heard about Ashby’s planned court action (even if Pyne recommended it)
The final question is: so what? None of that is either illegal or immoral.
Ditto for Brough.
The only problem would arise if there was some evidence either Pyne or Brough asked Ashby to concoct a story about Slipper to discredit him. In that case, there would be flames. At the moment there is barely any smoke.
by Mod Lib on May 4, 2012 at 9:40 pm
BG #45 – Roger Wilkins would be the Secretary most likely, I think … actually most likely to write it in German and then translate into various other languages with trick variations to trap the unwary.
by Marrickville Mauler on May 4, 2012 at 9:41 pm
Modlib
Exactly. It also depends on whether the Fed Police or Court in the civil case find there is anything to the legal claims.
by bluegreen on May 4, 2012 at 9:42 pm
There was quite a bit of competition from the class of 2010
by bluegreen on May 4, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Mod Lib
But what if slipper is cleared of cabgate,the civil charge even appears pissweak even without it.
by Schnappi on May 4, 2012 at 9:44 pm
You remember that prestigious rightwing thinktank, The Heartland Institute, which has a mirror in OZ in the form of that our prestigious rightwing thinktank the IPA with its chamber pot under the bed called The Liberal Party?
Well, they have been edumacatin’ Americans again, nice fellas they be.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 4, 2012 at 9:45 pm
The newly-preselected WA Liberal candidate for Albany on his electorate:
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/state/about-trevor
‘Tough on criminals’ has nothing to do with it, as this article identifies:
Including better youth engagement programs delivered through the Albany PCYC, proving that ‘tough on crime’ stuff isn’t the panacea Liberals seem to think it is.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/regional/great-southern/a/-/news/13602780/drop-in-burglaries-earns-praise/
According to his bio on the website, Trevor served for 7 years in WA Police. Seems he left too early.
by confessions on May 4, 2012 at 9:46 pm
ML
Politically it is a problem for Pyne. He has been doing a cover up. Hence Craig Emerson’s questions. For Pyne his best option is it was personal and he comes out of the closet. (even if he is straight). Otherwise why the cover up?
by guytaur on May 4, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Ah, Puff, I put it down to Advanced Age and Senior Moment Black Holes. I hope I remember where I stashed the loot my nice young Toy Boy helped me win on the pokies. I put it in “a safe place” and we all know what that means ….
by OzPol Tragic on May 4, 2012 at 9:47 pm
As guytaur says, then, why cover up?
by joe2 on May 4, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Guytaur,
You are suggesting Pyne could ‘come out’ as cover even if he is straight? I would be horrified if I wasn’t rofl at the thought.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 4, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Thought you would like it, perhaps I could also send in the latest hot girl I have been offered on Twitter in as well? You have really got the hang of Twitter now
Sounds good glad you got it before the “smart” money goes on and the odds are blown out of the water
by mari on May 4, 2012 at 9:50 pm
The WA Liberals have also preselected a Nathan Morton, who looks remarkably similar to current Mental Health MInister, Helen Morton.
Aside from the insularity, why is it so hard for women to get a go in today’s Liberal party? Why do today’s Liberals seem to hate women so much?
by confessions on May 4, 2012 at 9:51 pm
It matters not. The new confected-outrage benchmark set, ironically by Liberals like Pyne himself now demand that something be made out of anything, however innocuous it may appear.
I’m sure you won’t complain, given your comments on all matter of non-story beat ups in recent months.
by confessions on May 4, 2012 at 9:57 pm
confessions
Maybe they are scared of getting another julie bishop.
by Schnappi on May 4, 2012 at 9:57 pm
And they’ve also got the lovely Michaelia Cash.
by BK on May 4, 2012 at 9:59 pm
If Slipper is cleared, he can add his numbers to the ever increasing cross bencher numbers! He won’t sit in the Chair again IMO.
by Mod Lib on May 4, 2012 at 10:00 pm