Crikey



Gotta get down on Friday

The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:

• A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspoll’s 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowan’s 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnett’s favour, compared with 43-30.

The Australian reported this week that Queensland election exit polling conducted for a private client by Liberal pollsters Crosby Textor gave Kevin Rudd ratings of 38% approval and 35% disapproval, Julia Gillard 20% approval and 60% disapproval, and Tony Abbott 30% approval and 41% disapproval.

Preselection activity remains at a high pitch:

• Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, “a former soldier who now works with disabled people”, is “well entrenched among the party’s branches”. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a “grassroots” candidate who would “do the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapers” suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.

• The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.

• The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was “a policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaign”, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.

• The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Ruston’s Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophon’s bid for re-election.

Richard Willingham of The Age reports that Jason Wood, who was unseated by Labor’s Laura Smyth at the 2010 election, is the favourite to win Liberal preselection in La Trobe.

• The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013, Western Australian Politics

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  1. http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/may/04/david-cameron-leveson-inquiry-wins

    by my say on May 5, 2012 at 2:56 pm

  2. If so, what was Slipper using?

    He is using his cabcharge card, swiped though a manual machine. The resulting bits of paper are not a cabcharge voucher.

    A voucher is like a cheque, filled in like a cheque, torn out of a book of vouchers.

    by ruawake on May 5, 2012 at 2:56 pm

  3. zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, May 5, 2012 at 2:45 pm | Permalink
    @TLM says nothing to see – move along.

    LOL! I think your a Liberal supporter with that sort of remarks TLM.

    No, he’s just an inveterate Gillard hater and as such, any enemy of her’s is a friend of his, even if they happen to come from the dark side.

    by Darn on May 5, 2012 at 2:56 pm

  4. BB, 660

    So where does Lewis come in? How do you define “for some time”?

    C@tmomma,

    What are official government documents from the Office of the Special Minister of State in 2006, doing in the hands of Steve Lewis AND the Liberal Party? Did they keep them for a Dirt File to use subsequently should the need arise? Is this legal?

    FOI? or did he use the same methods he used in ‘utegate’

    by IMOHO on May 5, 2012 at 2:56 pm

  5. Thank you Aguirre. :)

    by C@tmomma on May 5, 2012 at 2:57 pm

  6. Apologies if this link has already been given. Emerson didn’t really have to slap down the interviewer, but it’s nice to see him going hard. Perhaps getting feisty doesn’t work for the general public, but ALP supporters should enjoy this.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-05/emerson-alleges-coalition-slipper-cover-up/3993288

    by Tobe on May 5, 2012 at 2:57 pm

  7. Steve Lewis is now like the plumber who broke into Watergate. Pyne/Ashby/Brough/Abbott are now the Tricky Dicky/Halderman/Colston

    by The Finnigans on May 5, 2012 at 2:58 pm

  8. The Australian’ spends two broadsheet pages and a full editorial running Uncle Rupert’s lines.

    Some of it is straight out hagiography.

    by Boerwar on May 5, 2012 at 3:00 pm

  9. C@tmomma

    Sorry, no-one in Port Macquarie will get a chance to (shudder) look at Abbott’s budgies. He’s not competing in tomorrow’s iron man. His vist yesterday was just a brief one to whinge about the carbon tax. According to Their ABC he’s on a whistle-stop tour ahead of next week’s budget.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-04/abbott-uses-port-macquarie-visit-to-renew-carbon-tax-call/3991658/?site=midnorthcoast&section=news

    Or more likely he’s just getting as far away as possible from pesky journos who might, for once, want to ask curly questions

    He can’t ponce around in lycra this weekend because he’s ‘occupied’ in the lead-up to the budget.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-04/ironman-fever-grips-port-macquarie/3991676/?site=midnorthcoast&section=news

    by leone on May 5, 2012 at 3:01 pm

  10. Specific and general knowledge. The new core and non-core promises.

    by Acerbic Conehead on May 5, 2012 at 3:02 pm

  11. Boerwar

    Some of it is straight out hagiography.

    Why not? He looks like a hag.

    by fiona on May 5, 2012 at 3:02 pm

  12. I can’t believe they’re so stupid. Up by a zillion in the polls. Why would you possibly bung this on?

    Thicker than two short planks.

    by Burgey on May 5, 2012 at 3:03 pm

  13. Alexander conquered the world at 17 and died at 33

    Downer’s dead?

    by This little black duck on May 5, 2012 at 3:03 pm

  14. C@tmomma

    Maybe FOI. However, if so, knowing how long it takes to get an FOI up, proves Lewis has been planning this take down, with the Liberal Party (?), for a long time.

    Also, I would have thought that, if this info was gained via FOI from the Departments of Special Minister of State(Gary Gray), and/or Finance(Penny Wong), that the Department Heads would have brought the requests to the attention of the Minister, so unusual(2006), and specific(Cabcharge), and unrelated to any current government business, and to Peter Slipper specifically, as they are. As the Gillard government appear to have been blindsided by the imbroglio, chances are that Lewis did not obtain this information via FOI but from the Liberal Party. I would not be surprised if ‘IT Specialist” and former Special Minister of State, Gary Nairn, did a Bradley Manning. However, that is an unsubstantiated allegation I am making.

    Explained so much better than I could have done – thks

    by IMOHO on May 5, 2012 at 3:04 pm

  15. Grattan. What a laugh, asked for the pm to fall on her sword and now demands the libs tell the whole truth on Slipper Gate. The whole thing is a mess of the highest order and all created by Gillard talking on Slipper.

    by rummel on May 5, 2012 at 3:06 pm

  16. What is Quite Delicious about Waiting For Tuesday is that neither the government nor the opposition know what The Hon. Peter Slipper will say or do (I hope).

    I know which side is feeling more relaxed and comfortable.

    by This little black duck on May 5, 2012 at 3:07 pm

  17. Tobe

    Emmerson said that the govt is not letting this go until Abbott fronts the media and explains himself

    by victoria on May 5, 2012 at 3:08 pm

  18. Will slipper put a boot into the libs using parliamentary protection?

    by rummel on May 5, 2012 at 3:08 pm

  19. If there was an FOI request then the date of lodgement would be common knowledge.

    by This little black duck on May 5, 2012 at 3:08 pm

  20. ruawake,
    He is using his cabcharge card, swiped though a manual machine. The resulting bits of paper are not a cabcharge voucher.

    A voucher is like a cheque, filled in like a cheque, torn out of a book of vouchers.

    Isn’t that what Ashby accused him of using – vouchers from a book? And isn’t that what the Memo recommended that they get rid of? Now I’m confused…

    by IMOHO on May 5, 2012 at 3:10 pm

  21. It appears brough and pyne are saying the gay community do not look after their own..

    Think ashby could have got advice from at least two disinguished gays,in Bob Brown and ex justice Michael Kirby,unless of course brough and pyne are gay?

    Think slippers brief will have a field day with ashby,await the tears.

    A likely scenerio is the sleaze party will cut their losses and ashby will drop the case as he is now feeling mentally ill lke godwin gretch.

    by Schnappi on May 5, 2012 at 3:10 pm

  22. r

    Will slipper put a boot into the libs using parliamentary protection?

    Is there honour amongst thieves?

    I would like to think that there are a few perps sleeping badly for fear of blowback.

    by Boerwar on May 5, 2012 at 3:11 pm

  23. Grattan. What a laugh, asked for the pm to fall on her sword and now demands the libs tell the whole truth on Slipper Gate. The whole thing is a mess of the highest order and all created by Gillard talking on Slipper.

    rummy, true to form. Blame PM Gillard (anytime now the Painful Pavlovian Doggy will appear)

    by The Finnigans on May 5, 2012 at 3:11 pm

  24. rummel

    Are we headed for a Abbott Spring

    Abbott sprung more like …

    by muttleymcgee on May 5, 2012 at 3:11 pm

  25. We’ve all made/believed so many assumptions/sordid stories about Slipper – makes you wonder whether any of it is really true

    by IMOHO on May 5, 2012 at 3:12 pm

  26. I can’t believe they’re so stupid. Up by a zillion in the polls. Why would you possibly bung this on?

    Hubris. Abbott took Slipper gaining the Speaker’s Chair personally, he also saw his dream of an early election evaporate.

    So the only way to redeem the situation is force a by-election in Fisher and regain his lost vote.

    Patience is not one of Abbott’s virtues.

    by ruawake on May 5, 2012 at 3:14 pm

  27. Emmerson said that the govt is not letting this go until Abbott fronts the media and explains himself

    Nice to see him remmind us that when Abbott gets questions he doesn’t like he walks away.

    I think the ALP should go a bit harder on programs designed for political junkies. Such programs do set the tone for the media mindset. Perhaps save their more patient and polite speakers for the more widely watched programs.

    by Tobe on May 5, 2012 at 3:15 pm

  28. Isn’t that what Ashby accused him of using – vouchers from a book? And isn’t that what the Memo recommended that they get rid of? Now I’m confused…

    No Ashby is alleging Slipper gave the drivers the equivalent of a swiped credit card chit, like some car rental companies used to demand.

    by ruawake on May 5, 2012 at 3:17 pm

  29. Oakes probably got it right today when he said WTTE that Gillard will likely survive. Kevin is a certain “no”. Crean is a “no” – close to JG. Smith is a “no” – no support. Shorten – an election to early. So JG remains. So does TA.
    I think that means the MSM will quietly get back to less hysterical coverage of JG – and a bit more scrutiny of TA. Suspect it won’t make much difference to the outcome. But its not quite over. This current Sklipper/Pyne stuff will blow away – but will remind voters that the Oppn are nothing more than a bunch of ordinary pollies. They are not saviours.

    by al palster on May 5, 2012 at 3:17 pm

  30. Burgey:

    I can’t believe they’re so stupid. Up by a zillion in the polls. Why would you possibly bung this on?

    Thicker than two short planks.

    They don’t think they can wait for an election. NBN/carbon pricing/mining tax will be too entrenched by then. This is supposed to, first of all, drive Gillard out of the leadership, and then force ALP to an election by – I suppose – making the parliament unworkable.

    They’ve tried a few things. This is just the latest. But it’s looking like a bit of an overstretch this time.

    by Aguirre on May 5, 2012 at 3:17 pm

  31. 815

    I’m actually hoping that JG knows about the content of P Slipper’s address. Surely, he’d try not to embarrass her.

    by gigi on May 5, 2012 at 3:18 pm

  32. Just watching Brough on Sky multiview and he is too keen to fob off his involvement. He’s a wonderful person, just ask him. He will help any of us who are bullied or harassed at work.

    BTW – it’s Maiden’s fault for not asking him the right questions. Why did Maiden only ask if Brought knew about the Court docs and filing of same. Did she already know about the meetings via Steve Lewis.

    I had a look at the Daily Terror while having a cuppa in a Cafe this morning. Was surprised that I couldn’t find any big headlines about Brough/Ashby. Saw lots of weird stuff about JG and others.

    by BH on May 5, 2012 at 3:18 pm

  33. What is Quite Delicious about Waiting For Tuesday is that neither the government nor the opposition know what The Hon. Peter Slipper will say or do (I hope).

    I know which side is feeling more relaxed and comfortable.

    LOL!

    Dont worry, the MSM will spin it all as:

    “a carefully planned distraction from Tony’s upcoming Budget in Reply speech where he was planning to forensically dissect and debunk the ALP surplus and lay out a detailed plan, with numbers, for an incoming Coalition Govt to rescue Australia’s fiscal credibility.

    Unfortunately because THAT WOMAN sneakily and underhandedly maneuvered a sleazy independent into the Speakers Chair we will now not have the benefit of being showered in Tony’s pearls of fiscal wisdom as he has to defend himself against scurrilous and unfounded rumors and is denied the presumption of innocence.”

    Oh, and BOATS BOO!!!!!!

    by imacca on May 5, 2012 at 3:18 pm

  34. If this is true… All because O’Farrell needed the shooters’ support?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-05/young-hunters-allowed-more-freedom/3993180

    New laws proposed in New South Wales are set to allow children as young as 12, armed with bows and arrows, dogs, and knives, to hunt feral animals without adult supervision.
    The new guidelines have been drawn up by the NSW Game Council, the State Government body which regulates hunting.
    Children are already allowed to hunt feral animals; they just cannot do it alone.
    The head of the NSW Game Council, Brian Boyle, says the age limits are being lowered to encourage families to get involved.

    by lizzie on May 5, 2012 at 3:18 pm

  35. gigi

    Why would Slipper try and embarrass the PM?

    by victoria on May 5, 2012 at 3:19 pm

  36. What is Quite Delicious about Waiting For Tuesday is that neither the government nor the opposition know what The Hon. Peter Slipper will say or do (I hope).

    I know which side is feeling more relaxed and comfortable.

    They probably consider it good training and will later introduce something like the Hunger Games. They arr Libs after all and want to encourage real competition.

    by imacca on May 5, 2012 at 3:22 pm

  37. We sometimes forget here the motivation of journalists. To them politics is just another form of entertainment. So, over the past 2 years, Labor has provided endless entertainment – Rudd v Gillard v Rudd v Who Knows?

    We forget the 2 years prior to the Abbott ascension…. Endless Lib leadership speculation. 4 leaders in 2 years!! What sport!! What fun!!

    So has Ashby now turned the worm, to coin a phrase. A new leadership crisis? Abbott ‘s “political judgement” being questioned?

    One they smell some blood, they’re all like sheep. Follow the leader stuff. And if GRATTAN is starting to turn, God help Abbott. It’s the new sport! It’s one of the reasons I’m a bit of a sceptic about msm conspiracy stuff, much as it has hurt Labor for 2 years. Journos are generally much simpler folk. Smell the blood and follow the leader.

    As the Chinese curse goes, may you live in interesting times. Enjoy the triathlon Tone!

    Gillard’s 53/47 could be a lot sooner than I had dreamt in my wildest dreams, especially if the Budget gets a good reception.

    PERCEPTION is everything in politics.

    by Outsider on May 5, 2012 at 3:23 pm

  38. This current Sklipper/Pyne stuff will blow away – but will remind voters that the Oppn are nothing more than a bunch of ordinary pollies. They are not saviours.

    The BISONs will be the saviour

    http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/ ( :P Diog :P )

    by The Finnigans on May 5, 2012 at 3:25 pm

  39. Unpublished letter to the Editor of the Oz, Politics of envy edition
    Posted on May 5, 2012 by Peter Whiteford

    Your editorial (Politics of envy threatens our economy and ethos, 2 May) claims that “Research by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling has shown that all income levels prospered in the Howard years and that under the Rudd-Gillard governments the gap between rich and poor has widened.” This is close to the exact opposite of the facts. While it is true that all income groups benefited from real income increases in the Howard years, the gains for high income groups were much greater than for low income groups, and the gap between rich and poor widened. In contrast, ABS statistics show that income inequality fell slightly under the Rudd-Gillard government, partly due to the impact of the GFC, but also because the very large increase in pensions in 2009 helped some of the poorest by the most. I have not been able to find any NATSEM document that actually says what the editorial claims.

    Matt Cowgill ‏ @MattCowgill
    Excellent (unpublished) letter from Peter Whiteford to the editor of the Oz, correcting an editorial's erroneous claims http://clubtroppo.com.au/2012/05/05/unpublished-letter-to-the-editor-politics-of-envy-edition/

    by lizzie on May 5, 2012 at 3:25 pm

  40. Why do so many tweeps have ‘fit and proper’ before their name on twitter?

    by confessions on May 5, 2012 at 3:26 pm

  41. Peter van Onselen ‏ @vanOnselenP
    My column today... "Treasurer will stand or fall on his policy message" | The Australian http://bit.ly/JJxA5Y

    How unsurprisement that News hacks are now reluctant to talk about Slipper.

    by confessions on May 5, 2012 at 3:29 pm

  42. The media turn on Abbott :lol: :lol:

    And not only am I going to contest the Olympics later on in the year, I am going to win the 100m sprint, the marathon and the 1500m at the swimming :P

    by Centre on May 5, 2012 at 3:30 pm

  43. If hockey and the other liberal leadership have no connections with this, they will be very interested see how abbott stands up.

    If he keeps on walking away its good bye abbott in a few weeks time

    by Meguire Bob on May 5, 2012 at 3:30 pm

  44. 834

    Victoria, I was worried at some stage that he might decide not to stand down after all. Also that he might be angry with her for the decision she took about him and say some regretable things to her.

    by gigi on May 5, 2012 at 3:30 pm

  45. confessions

    PVO had better hope Jess Wright of fairfax does not have any more dirt to leak in next few days

    by victoria on May 5, 2012 at 3:30 pm

  46. While we are on the topic of submarines…

    If you think we have problems buying them and/or building them…

    Malaysia has just ordered two Scorpene class boats for $1.7 billion. That is all very well but there is a fraught scandal involving the murder of a young woman including blowing up her body with enough C4 to cause a 4 storey building to collapse. C4 is not available at your average corner shop in Malaysia so there is a suspicion that someone with links to officials with access to C4 had to be involved. The lady had a relationship of unknown depth with someone who is related to someone very, very important in the Malaysian Government. The lady’s friend was involved in the negotiations around the purchase of the two subs. The commission for these services is said to have been around a $145 million which is nice money if you can get it.

    There is discussion that the scandal, along with other issues, may be big enough to topple the mighty UMNO which has ruled Malaysia for all of the 55 years since merdeka.

    by Boerwar on May 5, 2012 at 3:31 pm

  47. gigi

    The PM had a chat with Slipper during the weekend before her presser. i am sure they reached a fair agreement and both understood what they were dealing with. The PM is two steps in front of the pack

    by victoria on May 5, 2012 at 3:32 pm

  48. Mr PvO has an article in today’s The Australian in which he describes the environment as ‘a post-material issue.’

    Does anyone know what he thinks this means?

    by Boerwar on May 5, 2012 at 3:32 pm

  49. @lizzie/833

    As if NSW needs more crime related stories of young as 12 doing murders.

    by zoidlord on May 5, 2012 at 3:32 pm

  50. What is the situation now with Slipper and how are the Liberals involved?

    You never hear about it in the MSM, could somebody give me a brief but accurate update?

    by Centre on May 5, 2012 at 3:32 pm

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