Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.
With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).
Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Didn’t Abbott do the budget reply speech last year? Hockey was left to front the NPC.
by confessions on May 9, 2012 at 7:57 am
by confessions on May 9, 2012 at 7:57 am
The media were always going to return to type very quickly, although I must say ABC 2.4 this morning is almost doing journalism and reporting information, I needed a cup of tea, a bex and a lie down.
I’m sure there will be passionate sympathy on the street for poor Woodside, what a poor unfortunate company, surprising they can afford to sponsor even a team as poor as the dockers.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 7:57 am
confessions
I am loving the Kouk!
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:00 am
i reckon Swannie did pull the Rabbit out of the hat. Providing the mining revenue to lower and middle income families, rather than 1% company tax cut.
On the other hand, wish the govt manage to get rid of another Rabbott
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:03 am
WeWantPaul @ 3052
That is a low blow, WWP!
by Ozymandias on May 9, 2012 at 8:05 am
They considered it extensively before apply the adage ‘good money after bad’.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 8:05 am
Carn the Eagles.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 8:06 am
As far back as I can remember the LOTO has delivered the budget reply. That’s about 50 years.
by ajm on May 9, 2012 at 8:06 am
would have to say though – the government isn’t very good at “tough” budgets – which isn’t necessarily a bad thing
$150 billion in revenue gone in the last 5 years – Finns that should be a BISON if it isn’t already – i.e. despite having a $150 billion less in revenue we’re still a world leading economy – remarkable result in many ways
by womble on May 9, 2012 at 8:09 am
They will have to work hard to manage the risk they say something that goes into writing that some might mistake for policy.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 8:09 am
Good morning, Bludgers.
The Robb & Hockey show at the Canberra Press Gallery Luncheon, as in 2011?
Offspring and I belong to groups which knew, in advance, anything which affected us; in fact have for some years now. So I’ll wait for Swan at the CPG luncheon.
So I thought, instead of Budget comments, you might be interested in the Global context – putting the Oz budget into perspective.
Hello Ken, Kev and Wayne 2008! 4 years too late; but, I guess, better late than never – maybe:
Eurozone crisis: EU moves to loosen grip of austerity: European executive calls for shift towards growth as leftist leader Alexis Tsipras steps up Greece’s eurozone rebellion
What might have happened in Oz had the Government adopted the NeoCon solution, as pushed by the Opposition?
Austerity in Europe: what does it mean for ordinary people?
More in the article.
There, but for the grace of Ken Henry, Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan , go we!
by OzPol Tragic on May 9, 2012 at 8:10 am
Mornin’All!
Headlines today suggesting to me reaction to the Budget could have been worse. I will say that I hope the taking away of the 1% Business Tax Cut sends a very strong message that they need to actually help a government that wants to help you. None of this ‘Entitlement Mentality’ stuff.
Lyndall Curtis on ABC24 saying that it’s up to the government now to develop a convincing narrative to sell to the electorate out of the Budget.
I think she’s right.
I really am counting on the government to do just that myself.
by C@tmomma on May 9, 2012 at 8:11 am
ajm
I recall the budget reply by Abbott last year. It was anything but a budget reply. I was thinking that perhaps this year, they would take the budget seriously. Seems not.
I wont be watching. I am sure Abbott is going to mention Thomson, Slipper, carbon tax, but nothing about a budget.
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:11 am
well clearly there was no-one in cabinet with a clue, they had to buy help.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 8:11 am
c@tmomma
The govt have to sell the budget and nail the coalition for collusion on Slipper.
They need to get tough with this mob. Yesterday’s performance by the coalition, leaves no doubt they have absolutely no shame whatsoever.
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:13 am
I had little doubt left after the disgrace of Utegate, about 5 minutes of Tony removed any that was left.
They are the most amoral dishonest scum this Country has ever seen.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 8:15 am
Guess that makes 2 votes ALP can’t get no matter what is done in that household
by mari on May 9, 2012 at 8:15 am
Oz poll how i wish your post was’on the front pages here.
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 8:15 am
The theme of Abbott’s reply speech will no doubt be “cooked the books”.
Vomit inducing
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:16 am
I woukd doubt mick 77 is labor any way
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 8:17 am
WWP
Their conduct in the parliament yesterday, literally churned my stomach.
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:18 am
victoria@3065,
‘Shameless’ is a word the Gillard government needs to shout far and wide across the nation about the Opposition.
by C@tmomma on May 9, 2012 at 8:22 am
osted Wednesday, May 9, 2012 at 7:57 am | Permalink
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk One Budget measure the Govt should have funded: money for financial literacy for Opposition economic spokespeople.
Must be the tweet of the year, someone like bill shorten should use it all the time , over the next week not the treasure though
Is mr, swan on the press club today
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 8:22 am
And, for The Torygraph’s take on the AntiAusterity revolt:
Eurozone at risk from anti-austerity revolt and Europe austerity crisis: Q & A: How did we get here? Why is Europe different? So voters are unhappy then?
by OzPol Tragic on May 9, 2012 at 8:22 am
I didn’t get to watch question time yesterday but judging from what I’ve seen on the news Anna isn’t going to be anywhere near as controlling as Peter was – shame, he really did keep them in line
by womble on May 9, 2012 at 8:23 am
Abbott says the so-called surplus is so small it is almost invisible to the naked eye. And yes, they’ve ‘cooked the books’ and are increasing our debt by upping our ‘credit card limit by $50b’.
And he knew nothing about Slippergate until he read the papers on the Saturday morning.
by janice2 on May 9, 2012 at 8:24 am
janice2
Of course, we know Abbott is a liar
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:25 am
As sure as night follows day.
I want to see the Government hammering the Opposition – particularly Abbott and Hockey – on their economic illiteracy.
I especially want to see the Government on the front foot today pre-empting the Budget reply by suggesting he will be talking about everything BUT economics. It will all be about Slipper, Thomson, Carbon Tax – and I’m sure he’ll even throw in a “Pink Batts” and “School Halls” for good measure – and nothing about the actual detail of the Budget.
I want to see the Government argue that the reason for this is partly because he doesn’t really understand it very well – he has a well-documented history of being disinterested in economics – but mostly because he KNOWS he can’t argue against those responsible for best-managed economy in the world.
He will be like someone fronting up to a debate on the health system only to spend all his time at the podium talking about defence …
by Danny Lewis on May 9, 2012 at 8:25 am
As far as the ‘cooked the books’ meme from the Opposition goes, I think it might be a useful counter to that for the government to use the “You call that a knife? THIS is a knife!” Crocodile Dundee tactic against them. That is, when the Coalition bleats ‘Cooked the Books!’, Labor should just point to the Coalition’s rubbery figures from the small ‘a’ audit of their spending pledges from the 2010 election. Pick out example after example, and there is a rich vein to mine there, of the Coalition actually being the ones who ‘Cook the Books’.
by C@tmomma on May 9, 2012 at 8:27 am
DL
Actually i believe that the way to shut the coalition down is to nail them on the Slipper saga. If the AFP have done due diligence on this matter, there will be questions for coalition mps to answer. In any case, as Albo said yesterday, he is looking forward to Pyne et al being called to give evidence on the matter. Will the Fibs allow it to get to that stage?
There is still a way to go on this matter.
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:27 am
Womble if you read here arou d question time well the mad hatters tea party time slot
You will see tbe stratedegy pointed out by pbs re the speaker
Also i dont think there was more than one question,,
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 8:29 am
Seems like Swan has transferred the largesse from those who whinge and never vote for you, to those who whinge and might vote for you.
We’ve gone from a confident nation that, as imacca put it last night, weathered the storm of the GFC because it knew its government was behind it, to one full of whingers about everything.
In short, we had confidence.
The government did some amazingly scary things back then. It handed out money in cash to anyone with a grasping paw to grab it. It built schools, put batts and foil in roofs. It gave local government fund to fix up footpaths and bike tracks… anything to keep the nation at work and busy. It was so sudden and terrifying that it made us realise the GFC was serious shit.
On the other side of the equation, we still hadn’t come out of the mindset that we could borrow money on any pretext, that we would pay it all back one day, no worries. It was hard to believe that the economy could be threatened so seriously, so quickly, that it needed the GFC stimulus.
Combine the two – a willing government and a nation not quite ready to believe that things could go as bad as we were being told they could go, still clinging onto the old Howard handout mentality, and we survived the GFC, still confident. The government acted so swiftly and decisively that our native confidence didn’t have a chance to dissipate.
Come to today, and we’ve had a few more years of everyone else going bad around the world. The pundits and shock jocks keep telling us our turn is next. The confidence that we clung to in 2008-2009 has finally been beaten out of us, partly by overseas events, partly by commentators who have a vested interest in doom and gloom, and partly by political types who just want to win an election or score a handover.
As a result, nothing the government does seems to be ever interpreted in a positive way. Even giving up-front payments to eligible parents (instead of making them keep receipts and claim reimbursement a year down the track) looks suspicious to the naysayers who just wanna be miserable..
The once-hated mining tax – that’s the one that was going to make all the miners up-stakes and go to Africa or somewhere to dig their dirt – is now seen as the salvation of small business. So they’re having a whinge too, not about the tax itself, but about the benefits they’re not getting from it.
The whingers hate the way legislation is negotiated on the floor of the house, via grubby deals done with the hated Indies and Greens, but they wanted this 1% company tax grubby deal done. Of course they’re all proudly independent, boastful of their resilience, smart bizoids all, none of them need the Stimulus, the GFC never happened etc., but a government handout by way of a tax cut never went astray either. Something else to whinge about. They don’t want the mining tax but they DO want the goodies from it.
They also don’t want the wasteful NBN, but they’re all whingeing about not getting it and queueing up to get connected.
There are a thousand examples of this ironic ability to complain about everything, to cast a cynical eye over whatever the government does, but when it comes to the glittering prizes they all put their hands out.
We’re a proud country, able to stand on our own two feet. So give us more money.
Then we’ll mock you for trying to bribe us, even as we trouser the loot. that’s the Australian Way.
But there are some people who really DO need the money. They’ve been caught up in the vortex of plenary cynicism that pervades everything, but the money might come in handy. And they vote, millions of them. Labor only needs a million or so to change their minds and the government’s well and truly back in the game.
To me, that’s what the budget yesterday was all about. It gives us something to be proud about (a surplus), hands out money to those who can use it (voters) and set Australia on the up-slope, instead of the slippery one.
It’s got to be sold. The Coalition’s and the Greens’ intransigence on the company tax cut has to be rammed home. It’s not the government that abandoned it. It’s the other mob who wouldn’t let it through. Why waste time beating your head against a brick wall of negativism. The government’s got a job to do, and a country to run… incidentally, a country with the best economy in the world. Be proud of that.
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 8:30 am
womble
There was hardly a QT, there were to SSSO by Pyne and Bishop one re Slipper and the other Thomson. Naturally, they went to town and Anna Burke gave them enough rope for Albo to come in and give it back in spades.
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:31 am
He has a machine that wipes his mind entirely clean each night, sometimes over lunch as well, it works in most planes also.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 8:32 am
Two
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:33 am
Chamber of Commerce squealing like a stuck pig over the axing of the promised corporate tax cut. Sabra Lane asked Andersen what they said to the Opposition when they were opposing it – Andersen said they told the Opposition that if they are going to oppose the mining tax then they had to come up with an alternative to provide the tax cut. What he didn’t say (my suspicious mind in gear again) is that the rabid Abbott assured him the coalition would be in office shortly and therefore the mining tax would never happen.
by janice2 on May 9, 2012 at 8:33 am
Isn’t he a candidate to be a candidate, I wasn’t following he might be a liberal party candidate already. If the ACCI had any credibility they’d have blown it, lucky for them they have been ridiculous partisan hacks without credibility for more than 30 years. They should have been hit with a 2% tax increase.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 8:36 am
janice2
Perhaps Abbott can promise them a 1% company tax cut, after he slaps a 1.5% levy on them first. You know it makes sense!
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:38 am
janice2@3076,
It should be pointed out that the Surplus may be small but it has been achieved by a massive contraction of the Budget.
The government has to start boxing clever with the puny pugilist. When Abbott says, “It’s just a small surplus”, agree with him but then go on to point out why it is small and what big mountains had to be moved to get there.
Front foot advocacy and offense, not back foot defense.
As far as the Sergeant Shultz line conveniently being employed by Abbott wrt Ashby, well, that’s an old trick by the Coalition, as the obvious trail to the Deputy Leader’s door but not the Leader’s door exemplifies in spades.
When it came to AWB especially, Howard was able to go out day after day in the media and say, hand on heart, “I knew nothing about it.” The king in the castle, or the Opposition Leader in his office, is never to be allowed to get his hands dirty so that he may leave his fingerprints to be found by an enterprising Investigative Journalist.
by C@tmomma on May 9, 2012 at 8:39 am
Howard was canny evil, Abbott is a moron, he wasn’t smart enough to keep his hands clean.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 8:41 am
We Want Paul@3087,
It’s a former leader of ACCI, Peter ‘The Undertaker’ Hendy, who is a candidate for the Liberal Party in the upcoming election, for Eden Monaro. Not Peter “The Hangdog’ Anderson, the current head of ACCI. His time will come, no doubt, as it does for all good Liberal lapdog apparatchiks.
by C@tmomma on May 9, 2012 at 8:42 am
My bad thanks for the correction.
by WeWantPaul on May 9, 2012 at 8:43 am
BB
Apparently some economist on ABC last night, said that everything the govt does turns black and icky!
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:45 am
@BB/3082
I call it Post-GFC Syndrome.
by zoidlord on May 9, 2012 at 8:46 am
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/05/taliban-smackdown-tony-abbott-cleans-up-a-senate-mess-reminding-mitch-fifield-whos-in-charge/
by Leroy on May 9, 2012 at 8:47 am
Nature called at 1.20am this morning and I pressed the snooze button on the radio to help me get back to noddyland again. Was just in time to catch the last two callers (Delroy) on the budget. Both of them offered much praise which surprised me as Delroy’s callers are usually 99% anti anything Labor. Anyway, one of those callers made the point that people have forgotten the reality of the Howard era when the taxpayer bailed out Howard’s brother, had a mountain of gold from which they delivered surplus budgets after handing out pork to the big end of town and throwing the odd pebble in one-off miserably small payments to pensioners.
It is so good to know there are still some people out there who remember how tories work.
by janice2 on May 9, 2012 at 8:47 am
abc radio this morning relayed on tv – the pm of country interviewed on budget – second question, is anyone listening. will someone give all abc staff a course in journalism 101. slash the abc.
by geoffrey on May 9, 2012 at 8:47 am
What is this claptrap that journalists keep letting Abbott, Hockey et al., get away with when they say, “I don’t think Wayne Swan or Julia Gillard will be around in September next year.” That’s just a nasty bitchslap and he’s the one that should be called on it by any journalist with more than an ounce of courage to stand up to him over it.
I mean, the man does not have crystal balls in his Budgie Smugglers, for feck’s sake!
by C@tmomma on May 9, 2012 at 8:48 am
Now, a little Budget background from the Great US of A Obama’s Low-Down, Dirty Use of Statistics
Warning: you might find some of the article’s content very very familiar – Looking at you, Joe!
Not a case of Only in America!
by OzPol Tragic on May 9, 2012 at 8:48 am