Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.
With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).
Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
janice2
Thank goodness some remember, but obviously not enough, judging by the current polls!
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:51 am
Windsor and Oakie aren’t too pleased with Thomson.
As someone said yesterday, I don’t think suspending a member is kosher as a majority government could use its numbers to toss out the opposition whenever it wanted.
by Diogenes on May 9, 2012 at 8:51 am
c@tmomma
I so dearly want karma to bite Abbott et al on their collective arses.
They sicken me
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:52 am
The Government needs about 5 talking points from now until election day. Something like:
1. We are delivering a surplus to keep interest rates low and the economy strong;
2. The Opposition opposed the 1% company tax cut. The Opposition will cut services and jobs and always favours the mega rich over the lowest income earners and the poor.
3. The carbon price/ETS will be cash neutral for the vast majority of Australians and it will do our bit to save the planet for our grandkids. There are many other countries with similtar schemes.
4. We are the only party to deliver economic stability with care for the low wage earner and unemployed
5. We are the party of ideas to carry Australia into the future – NBN etc.
by Lynchpin on May 9, 2012 at 8:53 am
Diogenese
If the W and Back moves to oust Thomson, they could have sided with the coalition yesterday. They didnt.
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 8:54 am
Yes please. Can you take over the ALP press office please? Time to get on the front foot.
by Son of foro on May 9, 2012 at 8:54 am
If that’s the case, put the welcome mat out for Tony Abbott, PM.
by Lynchpin on May 9, 2012 at 8:55 am
Hockey can make a crunch happen here, quick. Look who he gets his advice from.
https://twitter.com/#!/JoeHockey/status/192498581700231168/photo/1
by joe2 on May 9, 2012 at 8:55 am
http://www.hawkerbritton.com/images/data/Budget%202012-2013%20OP.pdf
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/labor-budget-targets-the-base/story-fn59nqgy-1226350537881
Capital Circle blog, with links to various articles
by Leroy on May 9, 2012 at 8:56 am
For once I agree with Shanahan:
Swan is trying to snap us out of our national malaise of whinge, whinge, whinge.
He’s starting from lower bases – economically and of national confidence – but something has to be done to get those battlers back thinking positively again, and voting Labor, of course.
It’s not as if we’re going into debt to do it. We’re actually seeking to turn deficit in surplus at the same time.
There are consequences that flow from whingeing all the time. Eventually the government gives up trying to satisfy you and turns their attention to someone who will be satisfied.
My read of the commentary today indicates that, as hard as they try to slag-off the budget, the opinionistas realise this too.
We can continue to go down a path of national misery, feeling sorry for ourselves and moaning about everything, or we can pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off and start all over again.
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 9:02 am
Italics off
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 9:02 am
off I say!
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 9:02 am
Sorry guys.
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 9:03 am
Would they be happier if he was made vice minister?
by joe2 on May 9, 2012 at 9:05 am
Diogenes, re your post on W & O and “ousting” or “suspending” Thomaosn, do you know what that means in real terms? Would it be similar to what Slipper faced – eg they continue as a member of the HoR but are suspended from Parliament for a period of time, unable to vote. I assume Parliament can vote for that? This causes an interesting tension between the other rule I have heard cited that for a member to be forced to resign they have to be convicted of an offence and receive a gaol term of at least 1 year.
Suspension by Parliament effectively means that electorate is without a voice. Strange indeed.
I would imagine in that case the Govt would lose a vote of confidence without Thomson’s vote, but I may be wrong. Perhaps someone here more enlightened than I on the numbers and Parliamentary procedure could enlighten me.
by Lynchpin on May 9, 2012 at 9:06 am
I kind of like it, bushfire…starboard pb.
by joe2 on May 9, 2012 at 9:07 am
Lynchpin 3103,
I think 3 talking points:
1 We are the top rated economy in the world
2 We have a AAA credit rating
3 We have spread money from the mining boom to other people ( not everyone can go and work in the mines so we are sharing the wealth)
by RNM1953 on May 9, 2012 at 9:09 am
hold the front page , Crikey, pb has suddenly shifted to the right..
by joe2 on May 9, 2012 at 9:10 am
We have missed out on some gst
Second page sonrthing about the
Slippery gillard grip on power.
So news ltd
Then they foun moaning rich parents,
Then moaning pensioners.
Moani g business person
Happy gov. Dentist.
It was discussed here yesterday.’
About time limites overseas re te pension,
Does that apply to old age pensioners. The couple here mention it.
(Workig mumsand dads will receive as little as 100 dollars) end of quote words fro m newsltd
Why not say working mums and dads will .
‘
Blow me own when where young if wehad got 100 e/tra, been ovr the moon
Now of course the hapoy people
are now where to be seen
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 9:11 am
Tony is making plans for all the children, though…
by joe2 on May 9, 2012 at 9:12 am
Especially as the comeback is so obvious: “So you’re saying, Mr Hockey, that Gillard and Swan are the only people who can deliver a surplus?”
Or: “So if you gain government in the next year, Mr Hockey, you’re saying you won’t be able to deliver a surplus?”
by zoomster on May 9, 2012 at 9:13 am
Okay, who’s responsible for the curse of the italics??
by zoomster on May 9, 2012 at 9:14 am
zoomster
Albo made a reference to Ms Sophie yesterday, when she yelled at him across the chamber. Any developments on her aged care policy?
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 9:15 am
For those who dont click on next door
banal budgeting
by Bernard Keane
Wayne Swan’s fifth budget contains few surprises. The government will return to surplus — although it’s an almost negligible result of $1.5 billion — and most of the major new spending has been announced already, with only some additional assistance for Newstart recipients and a Family Tax Benefit A adjustment being the big new spends not yet announced.
And while the government has emphasised the need to find spending cuts to offset big falls in revenue, it is primarily through fiscal discipline and tax rises rather than big cuts that the surplus has been preserved. If this is an austerity budget, it’s a pretty comfortable version of the hairshirt.
The government finds itself dealing with $7.4 billion less revenue (not including GST) across the four year period of the budget. The primary causes are further deteriorations in Capital Gains Tax and corporate tax revenue and lower retail spending. The MRRT has also been revised downwards substantially — from $3.7 billion to $3 billion in its first year —
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 9:16 am
ba·nal /ˈbānl/Adjective: So lacking in originality as to be obvious and boring.
Synonyms: trite – commonplace – hackneyed – trivial – platitudinous More info » Dictionary.com – Answers.com – Merriam-Webster – The Free Dictiona
So there you go.
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 9:17 am
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2012/05/09/health-and-the-federal-budget-a-wrap-of-links-news-and-reaction/
by Leroy on May 9, 2012 at 9:18 am
“Other people” usually means someone else, so I would reword it slight:
by Jaeger on May 9, 2012 at 9:19 am
What ashame mr keanne cannot be happy bright and breeze,
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 9:20 am
Media release from the CPA
http://www.cpaaustralia.com.au/cps/rde/xchg/cpa-site/hs.xsl/38982.html
by mexicanbeemer on May 9, 2012 at 9:20 am
Just doing a little mental arithmetic. By my count even if Thomson was suspended the best the opposition could muster would be 73 against the government’s 74, assuming that Bandt, Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie all continue to support the government in any censure motion and they have all said they would.
One thing I don’t understand is why the opposition moved to suspend Thomson for only 14 days. If they want to go down that path, why not suspend him until cleared. Can anyone shed any light on that please?
by Darn on May 9, 2012 at 9:21 am
FMS
Self funded retirees on ABC24.
Budget bad, very bad.
Interviewer goes through each item, yeah that’s good. That’s good as well. That’s good too.
So all good, except for the fact that it’s bad.
I repeat, FMS.
by Dan Gulberry on May 9, 2012 at 9:22 am
Darn
My guess would be so that the budget couldn’t pass.
by Lynchpin on May 9, 2012 at 9:23 am
But over at turn left 2013
This http://turnleft2013.wordpress.com/2012/05/08/ross-gittins-says-media-missed-it-but-growth-will-accelerate/
Budget Day – exciting for politics and economics geeks, up at dawn like it was Christmas Day or your birthday.
Today Treasurer Wayne Swan is bringing down his Fair Go budget (has that been trademarked yet?), Ross Gittins take the opportunity to have a look at the numbers, and how they get interpreted and spun by the media, by the Reserve Bank and other vested interested.
Gittins is the Economics editor for Fairfax, and this is an edited extract from his piece ‘Media missed it, but growth will accelerate‘.
Just as politicians put their spin on developments, so the media put a spin on the news, preferring to focus on the negative. Thus it was reported that the Reserve “downgraded” its outlook for economic growth.
These cuts, we were told, “underscore the challenges facing the Gillard government” in returning the budget to surplus in 2012-13 –”a task made harder by the slowing growth and the resulting weaker revenue streams”.
Don’t you believe it…
Here’s the point: the news the media didn’t think worth passing on is that, notwithstanding its downward revisions, the Reserve is
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 9:23 am
Media release from CA
http://www.charteredaccountants.com.au/News-Media/Media-centre/2012/Business-certainty-destroyed-on-path-towards-budget-surplus
by mexicanbeemer on May 9, 2012 at 9:23 am
Another $3.56 billion to add to the surplus:
Pacific Highway budget sweetener turns sour
by Jaeger on May 9, 2012 at 9:25 am
Sorry about the italics.
I am suspending myself from the service of the blog for the next 50 comments.
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 9:26 am
Don’t you just love the way $1.5 billion rolls of the tongues of all the commentators – as if it is something tiny.
Here’s Bernard Keane on the surplus: “an almost negligible result of $1.5 billion”
Then, a few sentences later, $700,000 is something “substantial”:
Wish they’d make up their minds what is what – or maybe asking for a little consistency is too much.
by kezza2 on May 9, 2012 at 9:27 am
There are already rules that deal with misconduct by a member. These are the rules that parliament operates by and there is no provision for making it up as you go along, unless everybody (as in an absolute majority, I assume) agrees to permanently change the rules FOR EVERYBODY.
As I understand it, a member can be forced out if there was something dodgy in their election so the election for that seat needs to be held again.
If their conduct is such that a member is convicted of an offence that carries a sentence of 12 moths or more, they can’t remain an MP.
Other than that, if they electorate has voted them in, they stay voted in unless they resign.
If the Opposition really want Craig Thomson out for ethical reasons they should agree to not appose the Labor candidate in Thomson’s seat. Mr Thomson can then be smoothly replahced, Parliament’s integrity that are rapping on about can be upheld and life can go on.
Well, Mr Abbott?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 9, 2012 at 9:27 am
mean mr mustard?
by joe2 on May 9, 2012 at 9:28 am
Don’t go Bushfire.
I will put up with italics to read your stuff.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 9, 2012 at 9:29 am
Diogenes at 3101:
The article about Windsor and Oakeshott wrt Thomson is written by….Steve Lewis
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/julia-gillard-risks-losing-majority/story-fn7x8me2-1226350241789
by citizen on May 9, 2012 at 9:29 am
I’ll be very surprised if Slipper doesn’t pushing back against his accusers once the Budget focus runs its course.
He maintained the dignity of the office yesterday but if he has dirt on other Tories surely he will use it. Plenty of time on his hands and the cab charge claims should be determined one way or another fairly soon.
Once cleared, why not the say, what about the following people…..Oh and make sure you stand aside from any committees etc.
Brough not out of the woods either.
by dave on May 9, 2012 at 9:29 am
Of course when in media youfid the moaners, the rich moaners
A lot of self no pension at all and know a couple could sell there second residence , or beach,
Side shack
Poor dears
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 9:29 am
I think the motion regarding Thomson yesterday was just a political move to keep the spotlight on the issue on budget day. Regarding the budget it has good and not so good elements. There isn’t a lot there to help those sectors of the economy that continue to struggle. What will determine the final budget outcome will be how close or how accurate that 3.25% growth forecast will end up.
by davidwh on May 9, 2012 at 9:31 am
dave
I am waiting. Popcorn at the ready!
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 9:31 am
.
What sick bahstards.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 9, 2012 at 9:31 am
davidwh
Yeah putting extra money into the hands of people wont help the economy in any way
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 9:32 am
Sucked in!
by Lynchpin on May 9, 2012 at 9:33 am
Well said:
by Dan Gulberry on May 9, 2012 at 9:33 am
And, in doing so, feed cash back into the retail economy and buttress the economy against any downturn.
Working & lower middle classes tend to “live from week-to-week” with little over after paying bills and setting aside small amounts to pay bigger bills and for holidays. Budget handouts might not be as big as 2008′s $900 ones, but, as most parents (and kids) will spend the money on essentials and entertainment, that cash goes up the “food chain”, mostly to big business – supermarket chains, their clothing etc arms (eg Big W, K mart, Bunnings), liquor outlets and fast-food chains, picture theatres etc.
Not that it will shut Gerry Harvey up; but then it never seems to occurr to him that mouthing-off about imposing the GST on internet purchases is a sure-fire way of increasing online sales of goods he’s trying to flog at several times their online price! Go Catch of the Day, Fishpond, Kogan etc, Go!
by OzPol Tragic on May 9, 2012 at 9:37 am