Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.
With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).
Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
So the first post-Henry Budget allows the govt to make much more electorally appealling news.
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 9:38 am
Re Mr Windsor and Mr O.
They are both intelligent and, especially in the case of Mr Windsor, politically smart, men. They know what the possibilities would be if they voted to suspend Mr Thomson.
They are putting their views on public record. By seeking advice I would think they are going to draw out the fact that Mr Thomson is entitled to remain in Parliament.
End result, they have expressed their views, they may not like what he has been accused of but he is entitled to take his place.
All things covered.
Once again i could well be wrong !
by Doyley on May 9, 2012 at 9:40 am
I think the budget response is running about true to form:
*Those who wouldn’t vote Labor in a fit, find it the work of the devil himself. The West calls it “Black Magic”.
*The conservatives are finding all the bad stuff they can and highlighting this. This is always a perversely good sign as is shows the budget may turn out a positive for the government.
*ABC journo asking about Super was told it was “pretty fair” but when spokesperson bemoaned the “tinkering to the rules” journo came back and spent most of interview on this one small aspect.
*The few sore losers have been found by the media and their plight has been highlighted as some kind of failure of the budget – you know the one, 22 million people in Oz, and some 20 people missed out somewhere along the line.
*Budget has been variously called a “typical Labor budget”, “a budget from the John Howard book of budgets” and a “political rather than an economic budget”.
*The purist have moaned that the “future” has not been taken care of. All the “what ifs” about Europe and China dug up as contingencies. Like Costello really worried about the future in his budget?
As a general summation, the conservatives have bagged the budget because they are worried it might just focus back on the 8% of voters who are currently parking their vote (so-called ‘traditional Labor voters’) with the Liberals or elsewhere.
I give the budget maybe until the end of the week as a matter of interest.
The real news for the papers is Thompson and Slipper. That is where the sex and sin might be found.
In a really mischief-making piece in the West, expenditure by Thompson on a trip to WA in 2005 – yep, 2005 – a “tell-tale” trail of about $1200 can be followed.
Now, the list does include visits to wineries and nice lunches – and yes, one might ask why a union official needs to spend that much money, but illegality? I think not.
This does not matter.
It kind of shows he was “misusing” the funds and living the high life.
The fact that executives from large companies do this at shareholders expense all the time – as a writer to the letters pages noted – does not cut any ice.
I would judge – as some have done here – that despite the normal brickbats, the budget is a plus rather than a minus, and, at this point in the electoral cycle, when the conventional wisdom is that Labor is “finished”, not such a bad thing.
by Tricot on May 9, 2012 at 9:40 am
So it’s crap, then!
I do so hope Slipper sues the backside out of his pants!
by OzPol Tragic on May 9, 2012 at 9:41 am
It seems the cuts or new taxes they have tried to bring in were to damage the local economy as little as possible.
e.g increased departure tax, reduced rise in foreign aid, reduced capital purchases from OS in Defence, reduced level of duty free cigs etc.
Serious efficiency didvdend in Publice Service though.
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 9:41 am
Speers to interview the PM very soon on Sky.
by BK on May 9, 2012 at 9:42 am
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@3137
The gov should move to suspend all members currently facing civil action for two weeks; apply the rule equally.
Gov loses Thomson and Slipper (who is already gone for a few weeks), opp loses Mirabella. (Are there any others?)
Opposition either has to vote with Thomson to keep him there – opp now protecting Thomson; or against and lose Sophie as well – gov can claim Thomson is out of the picture, but no loss of majority.
(It sets a stupid precedent of course, but when we’re already at completely farcical level most of the time….)
by ShiftyPhil on May 9, 2012 at 9:43 am
Dan Gulberry
Self funded retirees in Australia would be red hot favourites for an Olympic gold medal in whinging.
by poroti on May 9, 2012 at 9:44 am
Bk
Will watch. Thanks
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 9:45 am
http://www.zdnet.com.au/budget-2012-slim-pickings-for-it-339337448.htm
more in the article, contains various links
by Leroy on May 9, 2012 at 9:46 am
http://turnleft2013.wordpress.com/2012/05/07/compare-the-pair-tony-abbott-refuses-to-answers-questions-v-arrested-development-chicken-dance/
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 9:46 am
ShiftyPhil
Sean Edwards in the Senate…
…but, as I pointed out yesterday, if such a rule is applied, what’s to stop a heap of us living in Lib electorates, going down to our local court tomorrow and filing civil suits against our MPs?
We could make them sound pretty impressive, even if there’s no basis in fact, and then withdraw them just before they’re scheduled to go to court.
by zoomster on May 9, 2012 at 9:47 am
Oh, and the government wouldn’t lose Thomson.
He STILL hasn’t been charged with anything, and there’s no civil action against him before the courts.
by zoomster on May 9, 2012 at 9:48 am
Did you see that retiree couple that the ABCnews24 trotted out to bag the budget just now?
Iterviewer, whatda you think?
Mr Retiree. “it is all smoke and mirrors”
(Gee, he got that line right.)
What about the aged care funding. (Eyes light up)
That is good, good, good.
NDIS?
We have a kid with disability. NDIS good good good. (eyes light up)
Tax affecting retirees
Doesn’t affect us, we are self-funded.
How about the how Australia overall?
Bad, carbon dioxide bad. Gloom doom. Compo won’t help, electricity prices will kill us.
Cut to shot of couple having coffee on terrace of two story home in leafy green suburb overlooking their swimming pool in their superb Homes & Gardens backyard. (I can see how they will be rooned, I guess it takes a lot of power to keep the pool pumps running.)
Final take:
It is all mirrors and umm umm and the the budget is bad.
Liberal stooge fluffs lines at the end.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 9, 2012 at 9:48 am
The FWA report is diabolical. It does not, however, pass a threshold to justification of removal from the parliament.
However, the House really can do, what the House wants to do, within the rules it sets for itself.
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 9:48 am
From twitter. Did anyone else hear the interview?
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 9:49 am
Online polling at SMH – after 31000 votes counted 34% happy, the rest unhappy. What a population we have? I am now beginning to support the idea of a small Australia – which will mean that we will have fewer dickheads.
by adam abdool on May 9, 2012 at 9:50 am
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 9:52 am
bluegreen
Well, no it can’t.
It’s restricted by the Constitution, for example.
Otherwise we’d end up in a situation where, whenever there was a change of government, the first motion to be passed would be one suspending all Opposition members from the House.
Tempting.
by zoomster on May 9, 2012 at 9:53 am
Yes but if itwasa howard budget would tbey find happy chappies
Ithink themoaners on tnepages may work in reverse
Ifi was acleaneror even awell paid, middle of tbe road, i would, thiink what are these people on about.
As ido any way.
Poor sods
The rich are ne ver happy, ‘ and would vote for abbott any way,
What iwo nder how do the msm find these people
Who are upset by the budget so quickly, for thepages today, ‘??
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 9:53 am
Would the whingers like the budget to be done Tory style ?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/08/osborne-growth-detroit-uk-double-dip
by poroti on May 9, 2012 at 9:54 am
my verdict on the politics of this budget
Best handled budget in years for Government.
No messy leaks about cuts to medical research or lack of mental health funding.
Party values explicit in guiding budget direction.
Enough headlines to cut through the noise.
Makes the mining tax a BIG plus for government rather than a neutral/negative.
Handouts to families are Tony Abbott’s reason for being and he will not be able to provide an internally consistent response.
Make it harder again for coalition to cost out election promises (carbon tax, mining tax, ppl, direct action)
Makes PPL levy look really really bad for business.
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 9:54 am
The FWA findings against Thomson are dreadful but for the life of me, I cannot condone the opposition pushing for the Paliament to act as judge and jury. Thomson pleads innocence and he should, at the very least, be given the opportunity to put his case before the courts and not be tried, convicted and thrown out of parliament by the coalition, the media or every other man and his dog.
If the allegations against Thomson are proved then he will suffer the full force of the law, and even if perchance, the allegations are not proved or he is actually declared innocent, he will still suffer the stain on his character for the rest of his life. Some of the mud thrown always sticks.
In the event that Thomson is proved to be innocent, then I think his accusers should be held to account and made to pay for all the pain and suffering he was made to endure.
by janice2 on May 9, 2012 at 9:55 am
Interestingly, BB, the future HAS been taken care of by the increasing amount funneled into our de facto Sovereign Wealth Funds: superannuation, Federal (aka Future Fund), State Government & Territories’ (inc qangos & councils) superannuation funds, Industry Superannuation Funds, and private funds, trusts etc.
Most of those are very long term funds, with more entering funds (mainly newly employed) than leaving on retirement (or through death, disability). The sheer wealth in Government and Industry Funds is staggering (over a trillion when it entered Finns’ BOSONs).
Think how rich the nation would be now if Costello hadn’t flogged the gold reserves (at a third or less of their current value!)
Besides, if we converted it to gold bars, the next Liberal government would probably flog them to fund Middle Class welfare splashes. They can’t sell the Super funds!
by OzPol Tragic on May 9, 2012 at 9:55 am
Zoomster
that is exactly what I meant
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 9:56 am
bluegreen
So nothing to do with having the power to vote out MPs then?
by zoomster on May 9, 2012 at 9:58 am
Speers going in hard on “cynical vote buying” angle re. education rebate.
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 9:59 am
Zoomster
We were talking about suspending an MP for 14 days, which I assume is in the standing orders.
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 10:00 am
ADAM who ownes the SMH please
Also i oftenwonder do you g liberals man the on linepolls
This hour of the morning
Observant mainladers, on trains
Are people wildly clicking i to news items on trains and trams with their phones as tbe tram trundles along
Is this a common occurance
Otherwise its the old retired people doing tbese polls
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 10:00 am
Julia pushing back against Speers. Just won’t let him stop her answering the question to her satisfaction.
by BK on May 9, 2012 at 10:00 am
Italics off – Bushfire Bill back!
by BK on May 9, 2012 at 10:00 am
Apologies, actually, bluegreen (I’m playing online Scrabble & a bit distracted)….
but there must be something stopping the kind of scenario I outlined before.
by zoomster on May 9, 2012 at 10:01 am
I did get a 7 letter word out…
by zoomster on May 9, 2012 at 10:01 am
poroti
There’s no shortage of competition.
by Dan Gulberry on May 9, 2012 at 10:02 am
Why does b/g
Like to find the worst possible scenarios daily. ??????@
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 10:02 am
Most of the Opposition’s dummy spits are actually not designed to succeed. We saw this when they accidentally defeated one of the Speaker’s rulings and backpedalled at a furious rate. It’s all tactics and designed for the media. They don’t actually want Thomson suspended any more than the Government does because they know what an enormous can of worms it would open, so you can bet that if Windsor and Oakie start making positive noises about it the Coalition will find some pretext to back away.
This is confirmed by the fact that they continue to move SSOs which they have no chance of winning (because it requires an absolute majority) rather than putting a genuine no-confidence motion on the notice paper for a subsequent day.
However, history is littered with stories of generals who won many tactical victories but failed to notice the strategy of their opponent who was cannily outflanking them and then pounced with a deadly strike when least expected.
By breaking with the consensus that EVERYTHING must be good for business. the government is making an outflanking move = let’s just see how it pans out.
by ajm on May 9, 2012 at 10:03 am
The other reason the company tax measures were separated out is because the Constitution requires tax legislation to be standalone.
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 10:04 am
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sydney_Morning_Herald
by my say on May 9, 2012 at 10:06 am
I do wish that once, just once, Gillard or whomever is being interviewed would ask the interviewer,
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 10:06 am
Good Morning
I see the budget is getting good coverage. The nasties are being covered. That being the nasties that do not matter to voters. Eg. Dumping tax cuts for companies is seen as a good thing for most. Just not Company CEO’s and their business organisations.
Abbott is stuck saying he is against the mining tax. He is also stuck with saying the government is bribing voters. Voters think this is a good thing as long as the Surplus is real. So Abbott’s strongest argument is you cannot trust the government.
by guytaur on May 9, 2012 at 10:08 am
Victoria 3146 it very much depends on where the money comes from, how much of it gets spent and how it is spent. Where you have what is basically a balanced budget then you are taking money from some sectors of the economy and giving it to other sectors but you have little control over what they do with it.
The growth forecast will be the critical variable.
by davidwh on May 9, 2012 at 10:09 am
My reading of the standing orders is that Speakers can toss people out for disordely conduct and bringing the House into disrepute, but that appears to be for actions inside the House, not outside it.
Big grey area. Would trigger some for of constitutional/parliamentary crisis if carried out.
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 10:10 am
Speers useless.
by BK on May 9, 2012 at 10:11 am
Ended up creaming him.
Now the journo to journo interview, with the talentless underlings.
by Bushfire Bill on May 9, 2012 at 10:12 am
It may not even happen, if Statute of Limitations applies. Unless some of the charges apply to actions during the last 7 years (ie relate to Thomson’s period as Federal head of the HSC) the reputed offences occurred in NSW at specific times (almost all c8+ years ago) and predate FWA (there may be other factors), charges are limited by relevant state and union legislation at the time.
I rather suspect that legal considerations in both Thomson’s and Slipper’s cases (ie, Thomson may be beyond legal redress for reasons stated above), more than any possibility of winning a SSSO vote, were what lurked behind yesterday’s attacks.
If the Opposition is to get a real crack at rolling the Gillard government, it has to do so before the Ashby-Slipper saga unravels, entangling senior Libs.
by OzPol Tragic on May 9, 2012 at 10:12 am
bg
Constitutional Crisis. Nikki Savva would be happy.
by guytaur on May 9, 2012 at 10:12 am
BK
Agreed. Speers was next to useless.
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 10:12 am
Save the Childrens’ “State of the World’s Mothers 2012 ” report give Australia another BISON.
TOP 10 BEST PLACES TO BE A MOTHER
1. Norway
2. Iceland
3. Sweden
4. New Zealand
5. Denmark
6. Finland
7. Australia
8. Belgium
9. Ireland
10= Netherlands
10= United Kingdom
http://www.savethechildren.org/site/c.8rKLIXMGIpI4E/b.8076153/k.B2B6/Chronic_Malnutrition_and_Child_Survival__Facts_and_Stats.htm
by poroti on May 9, 2012 at 10:12 am
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 10:14 am
In NSW Oakshott has come out and complimented the Government on its Pacific Highway funding and blasted the NSW Government for playing games and named local members who should be standing up for pacific highway upgrades.
by guytaur on May 9, 2012 at 10:14 am