Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.
With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).
Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
fess
All you have to do is “like” TAWNBPM” and you can get down and dirty with a whole lot of new friends!
by fiona on May 9, 2012 at 11:14 pm
davidwh
Yes Vo Rogue was top class, but I have seen two front runners that were better than him:
- Sunline
- Might And Power
By the way, I think it was Better Loosen Up who finished in the placings with Super Impose behing Vo Rogue.
by Centre on May 9, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Inquiry going into relationship between editor and owner
by guytaur on May 9, 2012 at 11:15 pm
You might be right David.
Super Impose’s win in the 1992 Cox Plate was the best win of all time, IMHO.
Of course it helped that Naturalism lost his rider
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yewKoFzCfDk
by shellbell on May 9, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Centre agree with Might and Power.
by davidwh on May 9, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Dammit – forgot to preview. In any event, confessions, the people who post on that FB page are many and varied. As far as I’m concerned, they are much like any random selection – some are wonderful people whom one would want in one’s life, some are for a slightly laid-back session in the pub, some get a polite acknowledgement, and some …
by fiona on May 9, 2012 at 11:16 pm
If Costello ever had the guts to lead his party we could discuss this instead of hurling hypotheticals about. He moaned and groaned about it for long enough, and then when he was practically being begged to lead the Liberals he mislaid his spine and it never happened.
My guess is he’s much happier talking about how great he would have been than putting it to the test.
by Aguirre on May 9, 2012 at 11:17 pm
William is to congratulated for his actions
____
Silly ausive language and vulger expressions contribute nothing to our debates
Good Workl William…and let see an end to nasty personal abuse
by deblonay on May 9, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Centre
Can remember Lord Fury winning the Melbourne Cup think 1961 and led all the way,ridden by ray selkrig.
by Schnappi on May 9, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Mod Lib at 4752:
That’d be me most of the time. I’m on holidays at the moment so I’ve got a bit more time to burn, but usually I can’t be bothered reading through 1000 comments a day, especially if I know 80% of them will be about Peter bloody Slipper. If there was regular WA threads I’d probably post a bit more. (Which I guess will start happening, with a state election next year.)
I used to help moderate a busy net forum myself for a couple of years. Absolute shit of a job, and the worst part is when you delete something and the resulting flame war complaining about censorship ends up worse than the original deleted post. That forum ended up largely collapsing… I’m kinda glad.
by Bird of paradox on May 9, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Buddhist not Catholic.
(peace not war)
by Mod Lib on May 9, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Shellbell Super Impose was a real champion and I remember that win in the Cox Plate.
by davidwh on May 9, 2012 at 11:19 pm
I am always amazed by this “didn’t have the guts” meme.
He didn’t have the votes.
by Mod Lib on May 9, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Bird,
I wish you posted more often. Seriously – you bring a lot of knowledge when you do.
by drake on May 9, 2012 at 11:21 pm
deblonay
A poster today asked if there were pending court proceedings re Mirabella. I recall you sayg something the other day. What do you know about the matter? Thanks in advance
by victoria on May 9, 2012 at 11:21 pm
He did after the 2007 election. Would have strolled into the leadership. That’s when they were begging him.
by Aguirre on May 9, 2012 at 11:21 pm
POPPYCOCK!
Let’s Elope was first past the post from memory, the whole field finished in a bunch and those that fought out the finish were all past their best.
Naturalism, who I had plenty of my beautiful money on was absolutely cantering behind the bunch before it fell. It would have sitted in!
The next month, Naturalism would finish a very close second in the Japan Cup.
by Centre on May 9, 2012 at 11:22 pm
This is about online media. Currently twitter is focus.
by guytaur on May 9, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Shaftesbury Avenue could beat Super Impose everytime 1600m at Randwick
by Centre on May 9, 2012 at 11:24 pm
He could indeed have taken the LOTO, and stayed there for a year or two and then he would have been rolled. He decided not to do that, and he would not be Robinson Crusoe in that regard.
I would be a little careful making comments about pollies retiring if I were you….I suspect the Senator Sherry resignation is going to be the first of many from your side.
Many many in fact.
by Mod Lib on May 9, 2012 at 11:26 pm
I see that Centre’s international markets are just surfing so wonderfully. You would have to be an imbecile to not know the fundamentals of the US and various European economies are total crap and whose survival had and is dependent on continuance money printing and bail outs after bail outs, pouring water into a sieve.
But those whose research is looking at the local paper is bound to get burnt. US unemployment improving? Sure with participation rates now back to 1980s levels. Massive numbers 43 million+ now on food stamps. Where the Fed spends billions propping up the stock market when QE & Twist were functioning, and naked short selling metals to the value of billions. Housing market still scrapping the bottom of the pit and so on…
Which is the ugliest currency? This week and next its the Euro, but I’m sure the Fed will back door bailout Europe some more……..
Stocks…buy and forget right? lol
And the surplus may turn out to be a very large anchor for Swan Labor. If the US can’t keep the presses running and floating this mirage long enough then flow on effects will accelerate into Australia’s economy, and just about election time things could become quite gloomy. And who will the MSM and Coalition blame…..carbon tax, Swans cuts to bring on a possible ‘surplus’.
Timing is everything.
by Thomas Paine. on May 9, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Centre
Watch the video – Super Impose was about 35 wide coming around the narrowest track in the world with Lets Elope, the reigning Melbourne Cup winner, inside.
Super Impose ran past Let’s Elope and Better Loosen Up which had won the Japan Cup in 1990.
Let’s Elope was second past the post but was relagated to sixth having interferred with the whole field down the straight like Stephen King had done when riding Lets Elope in the 1991 Cup.
by shellbell on May 9, 2012 at 11:27 pm
In Oz …. everyone’s a battler now !!
_______________________
Listerning to the post-budget comments on the media.I was struck by the grumpy and silly tone of many well -off people who seem to think that they had some entitlements that had been ignored
A man on one station said he/wife had total income of $13O’000 and it was ” a real struggle” …no one asked him about the size of his house or mortgage/about private school fees/annual new car/etc/family holiday in Ball./or whatever.
There was even in some a sense of resentement that low icome workers and familikes had received some help
Howard’s”aspirational”class was out in force and don’t like the budget on bit
Others spoke of “the rising cost of food” while all the evidence is that inflation is low…none of this has any part in their whinging !
I have no doubt that the next polls will be very bad for the Govt..they seldom improve after Budgets in my experience…nobody if ever satisfied
Australians are a very grasping lot in the main
Perhaps they deserve Abbott and Costello
by deblonay on May 9, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Bait and switch. Cute. Stopped talking about Costello now, have we?
by Aguirre on May 9, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Schnappi
In 1961 I was in heaven getting fine tuned to enter the planet.
I did back Might And Power and Beldale Ball who led all way in Melb Cups
by Centre on May 9, 2012 at 11:29 pm
There were some champions around back then Shellbell.
by davidwh on May 9, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Getting out and about the last two days I am getting a better feeling about the governments position. I am now expecting a five point recovery in Newspoll next week as I think Swan has triumphed with a real working families budget. Stuff the well off as they vote for the Libs anyway.
by Mike Patton on May 9, 2012 at 11:31 pm
centre
me too,think beldale ball was sangster and colin hayes
by Schnappi on May 9, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Fascinating insight how online media works internationally at Leveson.
by guytaur on May 9, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Shellbell, yes I remember Let’s Elope having a protest upheld in the race.
They were all past their best at the time, Naturalism was at its prime. It should have won by 2.5 to 3 lengths
by Centre on May 9, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Mike,
5 points. So about 47:53.
I think it will be a minor improvement, if at all. 44:56
And overall view of the budget will poll as negative.
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 11:35 pm
Centre
I got 20-1 on Super Impose at the Armidale racecourse.
I had 5 big ones on it. Yep….$5
by shellbell on May 9, 2012 at 11:35 pm
In the parliament the Smirk would probably whip most, including gillard. Out of parliament gillard and the smirk are both uninspiring insipid debators who would put you to sleep. Gillard wins by having the most annoying speech pattern.
And I don’t think Gillard would have such an easy victory over Abbott in a debate either. To adoring eyes she will have the technical victory, but to the public….again it would be who was the most condescending, annoying..
Good communication, getting your message across sharply and in fewest words is something gillard is terrible at. God, she has been struggling against abbott all this time. At least with the Smirk people will take a little bit of time to try and listen a little while.
I doubt Costello has the passion to go into politics again, unless he is really bored, cant get a job, and need something to do.
by Thomas Paine. on May 9, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Tabloids have gone to town on Gillard and budget in tomorrows papers. HS and DT.
by bluegreen on May 9, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Dio
re: Jack the lad, don’t bother just regurgitated rubbish that has been churned over numerous times, waste of an hour.
by HaveAchat on May 9, 2012 at 11:37 pm
It’s been a good week for Labor Mick relatively so they should get some sort of bounce. I don’t expect 59/41 is going to last long-term. The problem is that the Thomson issue is likely to drag on for a while yet even if the Slipper matter resolves.
by davidwh on May 9, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Deblonay & Mike Patton
I’m sure that the budget will boost polls but +5 (Mike) is a tad optimistic. I’d predict +2 or +3. Any improvement from there on will be a mammoth struggle particularly if Gillard doesn’t move aside.
by Mick77 on May 9, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Well for you yougsters the greatest run for me in the cox plate was Kingston Town he won 3 in a row and the one where bill collins said kingston town cant win he did.
Next youngsters The Melbourne Cup Where KIWI came from last to win.
by Schnappi on May 9, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Here is my team to beat QLD in the origin for sure:
Front Row: Phar Lap (c), Makybe Diva, Tulloch
Second Row: Better Loosen Up, Octagonal
Lock: Saintly
Halfback: Manikato
5/8th: Might And Power
Centres: Kingston Town, Sunline
Wings: Placid Ark, Schillaci
Fullback: Black Caviar
Will Win
by Centre on May 9, 2012 at 11:39 pm
by guytaur on May 9, 2012 at 11:39 pm
I made a comment about the likely election outcome with Costello
You made a comment about Costello not taking up the mantle because he was a wimp
I said he didnt have the numbers not because he was a wimp and said there are many people in politics who retire when they know what is about to happen, and it is starting in the ALP.
How that is bait and switch is beyond me, but I can how things are going to be around these parts now that we are settling in to a drastic time for the ALP for the next few years…
by Mod Lib on May 9, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Dare I say it was a good day for Team Gillard, because of Abbott’s dumb decision to oppose the education payments to families.
However, the clouds of Thomson, Slipper & the Carbon Tax still lurk.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 9, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Shellbell I had about $2k Naturalism, that was back in early 90s
by Centre on May 9, 2012 at 11:41 pm
However, I’d be amazed if Labor gets more than a 2% primary vote boost from the budget.
Gillard’s comment about people on the North Shore being out of touch with ordinary families hasn’t gone down well today on radio in Sydney.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 9, 2012 at 11:43 pm
She needs more programmatic specificity, I’d say.
by rishane on May 9, 2012 at 11:43 pm
TLM
so does ashby/pyne/brough/bidhop/entsh.
by Schnappi on May 9, 2012 at 11:44 pm
centre
Without KIWI you do not have a come from last to win
by Schnappi on May 9, 2012 at 11:46 pm
Octaganol kenny callenders favourite horse and the little shit always gave heart failure before that nose was in front.
by Schnappi on May 9, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Rishane anything but that please. The PM is good in the House but struggles to connect with ordinary people. It’s a big problem.
by davidwh on May 9, 2012 at 11:49 pm
I suspect someone from Conroy’s office will be taking notes. Lots of discussion about mistakes and corrections. Leveson Inquirey
by guytaur on May 9, 2012 at 11:50 pm