Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.

With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).

Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

7724 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147 | 148 | 149 | 150 | 151 | 152 | 153 | 154 | 155 |

1. Tom

   She doesn’t agree with the idea – that’s fair enough and she gets credit for being honest about the matter.

   No argument from me I just hope it is for the right reasons and not for factional considerations.

   by MTBW on May 10, 2012 at 10:07 am

2. Agree with you SK.

   But two things:

   (a) a judge alone will hear the FWA proceedings if and when they run. The judge will be as contemptuous of the trial by media, by govt, by local govt and political opponents as anyone. He/she will ignore it;
   (b) he is never going to be found guilty of anything only in breach of sections of some act (unless there are criminal proceedings).

   My point, which is an obvious one, is that court process for an individual is inconvenient if it is some local court misdemeanour and gets worse once the breadth of the matter widens to the point where it can be crushing personally and financially. Thomson is in the crushing environment.

   by shellbell on May 10, 2012 at 10:08 am

3. A censure is a pretty standard thing. Just a formally lodged disapproval of a member.

   Has been carried out around a dozen times in recent history in the NSW Parliament. Oakshot would have voted on some of them

   http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/la/precdent.nsf/0/FED11E60B2B9619BCA2572A00024686D

   by bluegreen on May 10, 2012 at 10:08 am

4. Ulhman ditched as host. Now back to political reporter.

   sophie black ‏ @sophblack
   RT @thetowncrier: So @leighsales will return to #abc730 on May 28. @CUhlmann will return to Canberra; Heather Ewart goes back to Melbourne.

   by bluegreen on May 10, 2012 at 10:10 am

5. BB @ 4925

   You are a classy gentleman.

   I second that. I missed the kerfuffel at the time but the response is exemplary. Thanks for that BB

   by BH on May 10, 2012 at 10:10 am

6. bg

   It seems that Ulhmann will still be reporting on and interviewing politicians.

   by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:11 am

7. shellbell,

   I hear you on both points. I am reassured on the first in the legal sense, but not in the parliamentary ‘court’. On the second I certainly wouldn’t want to be in Thomsons shoes (or those of his family) financially or emotionally.

   by Space Kidette on May 10, 2012 at 10:12 am

8. Bluegreen

   1. Motion of the Leader of the House agreed to: "That this House: (1) condemns and expresses disgust at the actions of the member for Coffs Harbour in the House on Tuesday 18 October 2005 and censures the member accordingly; (2) abhors the action of the member for Coffs Harbour in physically threatening and assaulting the Minister for Roads and, by this action, seriously reflecting upon the honour and dignity of the House; and (3) suspends the member for Coffs Harbour from the service of the House for a period of eight sitting days."

   That was the drunken Andrew Fraser trying to garotte Joe Tripodi

   by shellbell on May 10, 2012 at 10:13 am

9. SK

   If Thomson did in fact use money that he was not entitled to, and it has been accurately established, he should just repay it. It is a substantial amount of money, but hey he can pay it by instalments. The fact that he maintains that he did not misuse funds, the matter remains unresolved.

   by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:14 am

10. shellbell

    interested in your thoughts on ACL (Australian Consumer Law) and how it applies to state governments re increasing prices and blaming the carbon price.

    confessions posted this earlier (pages back)

    confessions
    Posted Thursday, May 10, 2012 at 8:27 am | Permalink
    Electricity prices are likely to rise almost 15 per cent in next week's State Budget after Treasurer Christian Porter said the carbon tax would have a bigger effect on bills than expected.

    Mr Porter revealed yesterday power prices would need to increase 9.5 per cent to cover the added cost of producing electricity under the tax, which comes into effect on July 1.

    The figure is higher than that previously flagged by the Barnett Government, which has consistently said the Federal Government policy - which imposes a $23 a tonne price on carbon emissions - would push up tariffs between 7 per cent and 8 per cent.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/13646954/electric-shock-of-220-a-year-looms-in-budget/

    The way to call bullshit on Barnett is to print the carbon price element of the charges on people’s bills.

    This is the relevant part:

    The key ACL provisions relevant to price-gouging prohibit false and misleading conduct in relation to the sale of goods or services. Where this occurs, the ACCC has the power to issue warning notices, infringement notices (imposing penalties of up to $66,000 for listed companies) and substantiation notices.

    It can also ask the Federal Court to impose penalties of up to $1.1m per contravention and adverse publicity orders.

    A party wishing to exploit the introduction of the carbon tax to increase prices may do so in two ways. First, they may claim that they have raised prices (or will raise prices) because of the tax. Second, they may simply raise their prices following the introduction of the tax.

    If they adopt the first method, and their claims are false, they run the risk of detection and enforcement action. For example, if a company raises its prices by $100 and claims that this is due to the tax, when in fact its tax-attributable cost increase is only $50, it will be guilty of misleading conduct. If, however, they adopt the second method, the ACCC will have no action against them.

    So, is it possible to report state governments to the ACCC for price-gouging in relation to the carbon price?

    I guess I’m asking if a government can be considered a company in regard to ACL?

    by kezza2 on May 10, 2012 at 10:15 am

11. bg – Uhlmann returning to Canberra means he will be doing all the political interviewing. No ditching I guess.

    by BH on May 10, 2012 at 10:15 am

12. Shellbell

    I would have preferred that ICAC did the garotting of Tripodi, like they have done with Kelly, Macdonald etc.

    by bluegreen on May 10, 2012 at 10:15 am

13. Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno

    National Affairs Editor for Network Ten bas Mr Vertv Paul Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno

    Paul bongiorno

    Seems to use his full name….-

    So is the above he

    by my say on May 10, 2012 at 10:16 am

14. So the dream team of PM Palmer and Treasurer Costello is not going to happen?

    by Son of foro on May 10, 2012 at 10:16 am

15. Fit and Proper Zac @zackster 6m
    I heard Mr Pyne say "I'm not playing games" about 6 times on #newsradio this morning in regards to #Ashbygate

    by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:17 am

16. Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno
    …
    National Affairs Editor for Network Ten bas Mr Vertv Paul Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno

    Paul bongiorno

    Seems to use his full name….-

    So is the above he

    by my say on May 10, 2012 at 10:17 am

17. OPT @ 5137

    OMG – where does one start picking to pieces your 5-point parallel universe of generalities? If only half of it were true it would nice but do you really believe all that?….the great union store of investment skills, the power of women (not men) barristers, the better education and connections etc. Unions are wonderful institutions with a great history and current relevance but don’t ascribe to them what they’re not. They’re a cross-section.

    by Mick77 on May 10, 2012 at 10:19 am

18. n Posted Thursday, May 10, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Ulhman ditched as host. Now back to political reporter.

    sophie black @sophblack RT @thetowncrier: So @leighsales will return to #abc730 on May 28. @CUhlmann will return to Canberra; Heather Ewart goes back to Melbourne.

    So why would he do the interviews, the host does. Normally

    Why has his happened, ‘

    by my say on May 10, 2012 at 10:19 am

19. BG

    Ian MacDonald is only under threat of garotte at the moment. ICAC’s report has not been delivered yet. It could be a doozy

    by shellbell on May 10, 2012 at 10:20 am

20. I wasnt aware he was in sydney,

    by my say on May 10, 2012 at 10:20 am

21. I think that means like what, mr brisenden, did sort over view.’

    by my say on May 10, 2012 at 10:22 am

22. This is an interesting article from Ben Keneally about Labor reinvigorating. He has a point because Labor worked well when the Unions ran the YRAW and the Party got behind it.

    The HSU scandal has already led to calls for the ALP to formally separate from the union movement. This would be the wrong answer, based on the wrong diagnosis of Labor's current challenges.

    Instead of formally distancing itself from working people, the ALP should strengthen its political connection with people who depend on modest wages for their standard of living. It can start this change by reconnecting with union members in tangible and meaningful ways.

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4002496.html

    by BH on May 10, 2012 at 10:23 am

23. my say

    Leigh Sales was on maternity leave. It looks like that has ended and she’s returning to her old job.

    by Dan Gulberry on May 10, 2012 at 10:26 am

24. my say

    Leigh Sales has been on maternity leave and is now due to return to 7:30.

    by MTBW on May 10, 2012 at 10:27 am

25. kezza2

    I dont know anything about the area. Cth control of States is alway super tricky eg WorkChoices in the High Court.

    Here is the relevant section.

    COMPETITION AND CONSUMER ACT 2010 - SECT 2B
    Application of Act to States and Territories
    (1) The following provisions of this Act bind the Crown in right of each of the States, of the Northern Territory and of the Australian Capital Territory, so far as the Crown carries on a business, either directly or by an authority of the State or Territory:

    (a) Part IV;

    (b) Part XIB;

    (c) the other provisions of this Act so far as they relate to the above provisions.

    (2) Nothing in this Act renders the Crown in right of a State or Territory liable to a pecuniary penalty or to be prosecuted for an offence.

    (3) The protection in subsection (2) does not apply to an authority of a State or Territory.

    Part IV is Restrictive Trade Practices and XIB is telecommunications so maybe what you are mentioning is not covered.

    by shellbell on May 10, 2012 at 10:27 am

26. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/bugger-the-numbers-says-angry-oakeshott-on-thomson-saga-20120510-1ye14.html

    by MTBW on May 10, 2012 at 10:29 am

27. Good news for the FWA

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/qantas-pilots-lose-fair-work-court-challenge-20120510-1ye45.html

    by shellbell on May 10, 2012 at 10:30 am

28. Thanks shellbell

    obviously a lot more complicated than I thought.
    hey, but when is anything straightforward with the law.
    perhaps I should just complain to the ACCC and see what happens.

    by kezza2 on May 10, 2012 at 10:31 am

29. Interesting the UK government has announced a system to protect suppliers from predatory practices by supermarkets against their suppliers.

    I think there is a genuine argument that australian supermarkets ahev a negative effect on small business and local manufacturing.

    I think at the very least the government should seek to ban the fees that supermarkets demand for stocking a product.

    by bluegreen on May 10, 2012 at 10:32 am

30. I cannot imagine what is like for anyone with a young family to receive a letter from lawyers saying this is how much you will need to give us to act in your defence when

    shellbell, as posted earlier, if the relevant person is a member of a TU with a legal defence fund, and that union’s solicitors determines that the member’s case is sound, the member is covered. Note that the famous Geyer case (the one which redefined “duty of care”) went all the way through HCA appeals – paid for by the NSW Teachers’ Union.

    If the relevant person is not a union member, s/he has to pay legal costs if s/he loses.

    IMO, you make your bed re union membership, you lie in it! You get all the benefits members win for fellow workers (and pay legal teams to win for fellow workers); you take the benefits but don’t join the union; tough!

    Blame whatever/ whoever made you come to that decision.

    by OzPol Tragic on May 10, 2012 at 10:32 am

31. Dan Gulberry

    Leigh Sales has been on maternity leave and is now due to return to 7:30.

    774 just reported end of May. Thank goodness for that.

    by triton on May 10, 2012 at 10:32 am

32. mtbw

    Windsor and Oakeshott have been the standout of this parliament

    by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:33 am

33. Marcus Priest ‏ @MeddlesomPriest
    I can feel a big yarn coming on. Watch this space...

    The AFR reporter who was running the Ashby story.

    by bluegreen on May 10, 2012 at 10:34 am

34. mari

    thanks for the update re Mike Kelly.

    The article should be really useful to him because Hager had to put so much work into gathering information, he should have a really handy dossier.

    by kezza2 on May 10, 2012 at 10:35 am

35. bg

    I thought the journo On the case at Fairfax was Jess Wright?

    by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:35 am

36. The Finns

    Have you been in contact with Jess Wright lately? Can she confirm there is more to come?

    by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:36 am

37. Ms Bishop says she is sure there will be a female prime minister “one day”, and has touted fellow frontbencher Sophie Mirabella and parliamentary newcomer Kelly O’Dwyer as women who will go far in politics.

    Dan
    I’ve gotta dash now. I have vomit to clean off the carpet!

    by BK on May 10, 2012 at 10:37 am

38. Bill Shorten @billshortenmp 5m
    @TonyAbbottMHR @JoeHockey Is it not class warfare to say the poor will steal money from their children? What else is it? #fairgo #budget

    by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:38 am

39. Vic

    Jess Wright ran is for SMH. Priest wrote some article for the Fin

    by bluegreen on May 10, 2012 at 10:41 am

40. bg

    I must have missed the AFR article.

    by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:42 am

41. bg

    Jess Wright was asked on twitter if she had more to report on the Slipper saga, and her response was wtte “doing due diligence”.

    by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:43 am

42. OPT at 5179

    Good detail about union defence funds, thank you. They are used extensively in litigated industrial matters eg unfair dismissals, award determinations etc.

    Give the seeming consensus that the HSU (whichever level) was a rabble, one wonders what defence fund it has/had. It commissioned Slater & Gordon to do the original legal work on expenses some time ago which predated FWA involvement.

    S&G was seeking restraint of the immediate release of the Temby’s interim report on behalf of some HSU (East) officials.

    The well, if it existed, must be nigh on bloody dry.

    by shellbell on May 10, 2012 at 10:44 am

43. bg

    Sorry. I should have added, I took it to mean that she had more and was ticking all the boxes as required

    by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 10:45 am

44. Latham does a great job of highlighting Combet’s failure in not even bothering to discuss the climate policy.

    by bluegreen on May 10, 2012 at 10:45 am

45. vic

    Windsor and Oakeshott have been the standout of this parliament

    They have indeed and they appear to seek integrity in other politicians which is a fair call for mine.

    Noticed Albo talking with both of them during QT yesterday and from what I heard on radio Joel Fitzgibbon was doing his bit as well. There has to be a resolution to the Thomson issue the ALP is already bleeding enough votes.

    by MTBW on May 10, 2012 at 10:50 am

46. bluegreen

    You will be disappointed to know JG was on Melbourne 774 this morning and kept referring to ‘Tony Abbott’. So at least one of your suggestions has not been picked up.

    I am curious. Do you have some sort of background in PR or other communications occupation? I have found a lot of your suggestions very persuasive.

    by bemused on May 10, 2012 at 10:52 am

47. Mod Lib

    “I am always amazed by this “didn’t have the guts” meme.

    He didn’t have the votes.”

    A bit late in replying, I know. He had the votes in November 2007. He didn’t have the guts. But keep on re-writing history if it makes you feel better.

    My reading of that piece of history is that it kicked off the gigantic sook the Conservatives have been running from that day on. How dare anyone usurp them from their natural seat of power?

    by Roy Orbison on May 10, 2012 at 10:53 am

48. has touted fellow frontbencher Sophie Mirabella and parliamentary newcomer Kelly O’Dwyer as women who will go far in politics.

    Did anyone else see O’Dwyer laughing with Costello in the clip on 7.30 last night?
    I cannot comment because it would be rude, but I was reminded of the entrance of Luna Park in St Kilda.

    by lizzie on May 10, 2012 at 10:53 am

49. If the Libs move a motion to suspend Thomson, will Labor have the balls to immediately move to suspend Mirabella? Be fun to watch

    by Burgey on May 10, 2012 at 10:54 am

50. Barnaby in the CanberraTimes.

    So what are we going to do with all that water? Well there’s another question that the Budget raises, but never answers. They have set up the Commonwealth Environmental Water Office to water 2,442 paddocks of frogs, swamps and moss. How they get it there and how much these paddocks require, nobody knows.

    I thought that the narrative is that farmers know all about the environment and will alwasy do what’s best for it. Barnaby’s scathing comment about “frogs, swamps and moss” shows his contempt.
    http://us4.campaign-archive1.com/?u=ff2ebaedf0d3569f441cfef14&id=99a3befdcc

    by lizzie on May 10, 2012 at 10:57 am