Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.
With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).
Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
CC
As I said. Patience.
by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 11:46 am
In the ABS pdf there is a chart of number of people in employment. It is on a definite upward trend.
Another BISON no less.
by BK on May 10, 2012 at 11:47 am
A warning to PBers
http://www.strongercyclist.com/why-compact-cranks-can-make-you-weak/
by poroti on May 10, 2012 at 11:49 am
@5250 The patience of FWA????
by Compact Crank on May 10, 2012 at 11:49 am
muttleymcgee
No, they are just going back to normal with Uhlmann as the no. 2, before Leigh Sales went on leave. Uhlmann has only been filling in as presenter.
by triton on May 10, 2012 at 11:50 am
Geoff D@5248
I think we’re still a bit above the unemployment in the pre-GFC boom times, so it’s not such an clear claim to make.
by ShiftyPhil on May 10, 2012 at 11:51 am
CC
Some honesty from the conservatives would help.
*Why the attempt to tie the increase on electricity prices to “the Budget” meaning the Federal budget?
*Why the big deal of the CT impost of maybe 8% in a rise of nearly 70%
*The conservatives did nothing regarding the break up of the process of electric generation, distribution and sales.
*If it is good enough to Labor to cop the sins of Slipper now, it is good enough for the State conservatives to cop the blame for increases in electricity. It is their watch after all.
*There is no mention of increases in gas prices and water costs.
*Maybe Barnett should turn his a/c off in summer as he said others should do – to save money.
*Maybe the Taj Mahal of offices he has had done since being in power might have been deferred.
*Maybe his efforts to save money on scrapping all the “old” letterheads and amalgamating the bureaucracy might have been believed if he had not employed more consultants than any recent WA state government.
*And just maybe, stopped blaming the Feds for everything and stop being smarmy when trying to wheedled dough out of same Feds to build some flash new stadium around the town.
Suggest, finally, you open the other Liberal eye.
by Tricot on May 10, 2012 at 11:52 am
ShiftyPhil
It is at least as accurate and provable as the Libs “Interest Rates will always be lower under a Coalition Government.”
by Geoff D on May 10, 2012 at 11:53 am
george has been busy again.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7144508963/in/photostream
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7005565558/in/photostream
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7164129990/in/photostream
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7164249248/in/photostream
by BK on May 10, 2012 at 11:53 am
Heard Abbot on radio saying he will get the economy growing again followed by a story saying unemployment is now 4.9%.
That guy is constantly mugged by reality.
by ShowsOn on May 10, 2012 at 11:53 am
@5252 – I love my compact crank, saved my arse on the uncategorised climbs in the French Alps – but don’t actually have it fitted at the mo – and I’m running 12-21 on the back, instead of 12-27.
Regards
by Compact Crank on May 10, 2012 at 11:54 am
4.9% = dysfunctional
governmentopposition.No matter how hard they try …
by This little black duck on May 10, 2012 at 11:55 am
BK
I especially liked the Slipper and Brough pics. I have the popcorn ready
by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 11:56 am
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 4m
VIC Frontbench Liberal MP Kevin Andrews on whoever leaked the (denied) Costello comeback story 'Tony [Abbott] & I take a very dim view.’]
by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 11:58 am
by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 11:59 am
Compact Crank
The writer probably comes from the single speed hair shirt school of riding
by poroti on May 10, 2012 at 11:59 am
@5256 – check the scoreboard – how many lower house ALP seats will be left in WA, State or Fed, after the next elections???
I suppose you think any money spent on any Minsterial Offcies and Parliament Buildings is a complete waste – or do ou have the perfect time for them to be funded and built/refurbished?
Have you been in the existing ones? I have. They are crap.
by Compact Crank on May 10, 2012 at 12:02 pm
by Space Kidette on May 10, 2012 at 12:05 pm
by Space Kidette on May 10, 2012 at 12:06 pm
There is a ‘fuel reduction’ burn happening up the hill. They should just be honest and call it a biodiversity reduction burn.
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Gillard should’ve announced her support for same sex marriage today
by ShowsOn on May 10, 2012 at 12:07 pm
North Shore dog whistle giving her a platform.
Nice National Job numbers although Tasmania still in free-fall.
by bluegreen on May 10, 2012 at 12:07 pm
@5265 – agree – apart from ducking round to the local I can’t get gripped about singl speeds and I am nowhere hip enough – don’t own a pair of skinny jeans or the cool t-shirts.
by Compact Crank on May 10, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Has there been a day yet, where the coalition and their supporters won a debate
by Meguire Bob on May 10, 2012 at 12:09 pm
by Space Kidette on May 10, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Order of play ABC95
1. Oakeshott on Thomson
2. Obama on same-sex marriage
3. Truckers squeezed
Shhh, don’t mention JOBS!
by This little black duck on May 10, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Spot on. He mistakes being rude for being tough, precisely because he lacks the talent to do a good interview.
by Son of foro on May 10, 2012 at 12:11 pm
@5270 – Obama has done it because he is seeing pollling showing him that Romney is going to beat him. Obama no longer has the centre and is therefore trying to reinforce his base and the left.
Gillard is still trying to win the centre.
by Compact Crank on May 10, 2012 at 12:12 pm
5. Jobs
by This little black duck on May 10, 2012 at 12:13 pm
And proved we always follow America and don’t think for ourselves.
by lizzie on May 10, 2012 at 12:13 pm
by Space Kidette on May 10, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Very true. Part of the NeoCon Supremacy of Reagan and Thatcher; through a rabbit hole into 1984 where words suddenly meant the opposite (and, BTW, the beginning of abusive lying instead of truth). At the same time, the language of management changed. Many of you can give examples of pretentious, multisyllable words’ replacing simple ones from the late 80s onward.
I attended a wonderful lecture by a professor from Cardiff Uni on the way NeoCon language used positive words to describe negative actions, and abused instead of apologising. The one I best remember was that workers were no longer “sacked” but “liberated” by the company (as in the …… car company has liberated 1,200 workers”). Another was “humbled by” instead of “proud of” – Howard was fond of “humbled” (correct meaning “humiliated”) instead of saying “I’m proud that/ of” I still find the idea of Howard’s being humble instead of arrogant outrageous!
About the same time, court decisions made truth, warts and all dangerous, unless the speaker and hearer were alone together, out of earshot of anyone else, without anyone’s “wearing a wire”.
by OzPol Tragic on May 10, 2012 at 12:16 pm
That’s not a bad point, especially combined with it being more of a state issue there… that said, unless there’s some factional issue holding her back, it’d be nice for it to just be done and got out of the way here.
by rishane on May 10, 2012 at 12:16 pm
by Space Kidette on May 10, 2012 at 12:17 pm
According to ABC World Today program:
It’s a “surprise” fall in the unemployment figures.
And now we go into all the reasons why these are dodgy figures.
Be careful of headline figures, according to the NAB.
These numbers fluctuate anyway.
Amazing how they cling to the headline figure when it’s over 5% and predicted to climb.
Oh, and beware, the dollar is now well over parity – 1.018 !!!
This will make the figures bigger next month,
especially with all the job losses to come.
Overall stock market is up – oh, but only just.
it is possible to ever get positive news reports?
by kezza2 on May 10, 2012 at 12:17 pm
CC @ 5266
‘check the scoreboard’.
Last time I looked at the scoreboard the ALP was the government and Gillard was still PM. That looks like a win.
by hugh moran on May 10, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Gai Brodtman refused a pair – to attend a function she’d organised with families happy with the KidsBonus.
by kezza2 on May 10, 2012 at 12:20 pm
CC@5266
I will look at my chooks’ entrails for you.
In WA, Barnett is 4 seats short of losing office – as he was at the last election.
Morley is likely to go back to Labor and Mt Lawley is a possibility while Freeo is likely to go back to Labor.
So, on a good day for the Libs they might scrape back, but a lot depends on what their harlot partners, the Nationals, hold out for. Also, I suppose which Labor rat deserts for the conservatives as Bowler did last time.
Based on the Victorian scenario of 51-49 to the Libs at the moment Labor will not lose seats and with the cost of living going up, has a reasonable chance of even winning.
The Federal call is not so optimistic for Labor in WA it is true to say, because not even in the best of circumstances is it possible for Labor to overcome the Red Neck state factor. So, working from an absolute best case scenario of 8 seats out of 15 in the lower house, and with the likelihood after 16 months, one more budget and and election campaign, there is a possibility of maybe two extra seats for Labor – two they came within an ace of winning/holding last time. So, total of maybe 5 in 2013?
Anyhow, with the possibility of two more here than last time, Victoria, South Australia and Tassie holding for Labor, and the gloss going off BOF, some gains in NSW, I would rate Labor as competitive at least.
At this point I am going to kind of put Qld in the too hard basket as I don’t understand the politics up there.
In some respects they have the same Red Neck characteristics of WA, but there are other factors at work I just don’t get.
See, there CC, I just don’t accept your glib view that it is lay down misere for the conservatives.
And, by the way, I never suggested money spend on new buildings for the government is wasted, neither did I for the BER or the pink batts.
See, this is what I mean about Liberal hypocrisy. Part of the DNA. All Liberal expenditure “good”, all Labor expenditure “waste of tax payers money”. Any improvement in the economy by the conservatives, all due to “good management”. All improvements by Labor, good luck. What did I see the unemployment figure down to just a moment ago? Oh, below 5% – Must just be a bit of good luck of the government eh?
This is why the conservatives are a joke.
by Tricot on May 10, 2012 at 12:21 pm
NOT TRUE, as any reader of US papers (inc online Huffington Post) knows. BK & others do a great job ensuring we are kept up to date re USA politics & the run into US Election12.
Note also that, in the UK, Cameron is trailing Labour in the polls by 13%. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
by OzPol Tragic on May 10, 2012 at 12:22 pm
@hugh moran/5285
Gillard is in Minority Government, not Majority Government.
Majority requires 76 or over.
by zoidlord on May 10, 2012 at 12:22 pm
K2
Not while Murdoch has his sway.
I am hoping every negative report is making JG and Conroy blood pressure rise.
Media Reform here we come. True diversity in media. Forced sale of papers by Sauron of Mordor.
by guytaur on May 10, 2012 at 12:24 pm
CanDo is thinking of overturning Wild Rivers legislation for outback rivers.
by This little black duck on May 10, 2012 at 12:25 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-10/grazier-vows-severe-fight-over-wild-rivers-laws/4003072?section=qld
Vandal Newman.
by This little black duck on May 10, 2012 at 12:28 pm
guytaur
was talking about the ABC!!
I know all about Mordor.
Even the Rob Oakeshott stuff over Thomson is misleading.
They keep reporting that he said he is considering a censure motion against Thomson.
But in every report – where they play a snippet of Oakeshott – he is not saying that at all. It’s interpretation of what he is saying, otherwise they’d replay his actual words.
by kezza2 on May 10, 2012 at 12:28 pm
K2
I was talking ABC Too. There they have to remember that progressives are not in power all the time. As well as job prospects if they ever leave. Where do they go?
Mordor.
by guytaur on May 10, 2012 at 12:30 pm
by guytaur on May 10, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Wow! 4.9%?
Obviously we need an ELECTION NOW or we’ll all be rooooooooooned!
by imacca on May 10, 2012 at 12:32 pm
by guytaur on May 10, 2012 at 12:32 pm
It guts me to hear that unemployment has fallen and now has a 4 in front of it (not sure you can be prouder of a figure like that in these uncertain times) and yet the ALP’s primary vote has a 2 in front of it.
Yes, there has been scandals and melodrama and a bit of parliamentary uncertainty, but the ALP simply doesn’t deserve to be this far behind in the polls
by spur212 on May 10, 2012 at 12:33 pm
by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 12:34 pm