Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.
With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).
Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Yeah, just watching idiots on Sky saying they can’t explain the drop in unemployment. First of all, why get someone on if all they’re going to say is “I don’t know”? And then, why bother showing clips of them saying “I don’t know” throughout the day?
Of course they’re baffled. They’ve convinced each other everything’s terrible and getting worse. Despite the evidence. If you’re going to ignore the evidence and just carry on basing predictions on what you’re hoping for, you’re going to get the odd surprise now and then.
by Aguirre on May 10, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Snap.
by ruawake on May 10, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Bushfire tne msm tried that hereto its backfirei g read comments below
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/05/10/326741_most-popular-stories.html
by my say on May 10, 2012 at 3:45 pm
That’s a great link, TLBD – now on my favourites bar.
My apologies for having misled wrt the Burking: it was Andrew Laming. I misheard “Bowman” as “Dobell”.
by fiona on May 10, 2012 at 3:47 pm
I heard Ms Bishop refer to 100 things (to be investigated) in relation to Mr Thomson. It did seem to me that she was rather implying that Mr Thomson was guilty of the lot.
I imagine that that would require a motsa of police work and many, many months of work. I imagine that the police, being diligent and thorough, would go through the lot before deciding whether to press charges.
Meanwhile, the Government bleeds.
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 3:47 pm
I talked to my barber today – he said who is Craig Thomson.
by ruawake on May 10, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Boerwar@5609
An alternate term for the same thing: dependapotamus
by Musrum on May 10, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Thanks John Ryan. It was only for a few hours and thoroughly deserved.
I was going to court today on a civil matter as the defendant and was a bit toey last night. I said a couple of things I shouldn’t have.
As to my court case, luckily (representing myself) I won the day in 5 minutes flat by picking out yet another (a second) flaw in the plaintiff’s case and so we all have to go away for another month and cool our heels. It must be costing them a fortune, which (because it’s their fault) they can’t claim costs for.
The magistrate’s getting pissed off with them not paying attention to the paperwork and with their making up excuses about simple errors with gross ramifications, which fits in nicely with my main argument – that they don’t know what they’re doing in my case, or in general, and pay little attention to details, – when I get to finally present it.
And we haven’t even got to the bit where they tried to falsify evidence. They faked-up a document, of which I have the original.
It’s not actually fun, but it certainly gets the blood flowing when you go before the beak and put your case, especially when they agree with your point.
by Bushfire Bill on May 10, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Spur the issue that has the biggest potential for criminal charges relates to persons allegedly accepting bribes to authorize contracts at above market rates. It seems at least one person could be in trouble over that issue but the issue in relation to Thomson is less clear. It will depend on whether he received a benefit from a third party and whether that benefit influenced him to authorize contracts to that third party.
We have to wait and see how that plays out.
by davidwh on May 10, 2012 at 3:48 pm
(I talked to my barber today – he said who is Craig Thomson.)
My neighbour ask me the same question
by my say on May 10, 2012 at 3:49 pm
The Russian jet that crashed in Indonesia was doing a demo flight with respect to possible sales.
I can imagine at least one checkbox that won’t get a buyer’s tick.
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Boerwar
The GM of FWA has stated there are NO criminal offences in their report. They have stated they cannot do anything about breaches of Union rules. She made it extremely clear that they decided that releasing the report was about all they can do.
I doubt Thomson will be charged with anything – civil or criminal.
by ruawake on May 10, 2012 at 3:50 pm
rua
OK, so there is one jot or tittle of budget bounce not yet sunk. Or did you tell him all about Mr Thomson?
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 3:52 pm
DavidWH
Nevertheless that seems like it’s not going to be resolved for a very long time and it would be quite difficult to prove.
by spur212 on May 10, 2012 at 3:52 pm
BTW, I notice how quickly everyone’s forgotten Abbott’s “they just are”.
If Gillard tried that answer …
by Danny Lewis on May 10, 2012 at 3:53 pm
rua
We’ll see.
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 3:53 pm
It’s a good point. This sort of stuff isn’t cutting through. But the Coalition are just creating an overall impression here. People I talk to say things like, “all politicians are liars/hopeless/selfish/boring.” They’re not over the specifics on anything.
And you can bet the beneficiaries of all the good stuff in the budget are responding with “about time” rather than “good on them”. You’d be surprised how few of them can even tell the difference betweeen Liberal and Labor.
The biggest problem with good policy is that it’s all wasted on people. And people, in the main, are ungrateful sods.
by Aguirre on May 10, 2012 at 3:54 pm
His underwhelmingness just gets more and more underwhelming.
Plus I guess we long ago gave up on the hope that the MSM would start pointing out just how hopeless he is.
by Son of foro on May 10, 2012 at 3:54 pm
BB
Good on you for your legal industry efforts. Reminds me of my old man doing his own defence in front of a country beak against a city QC.
The country beak took some satisfaction in seeing the old man knock off the arguments of the city QC.
The point at law, believe it or not, was whether my old man was a ‘qualified’ fencer.
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Greg Smith SC, Attorney General, has just appointed, to the Supreme Court, one of the barristers who defended two of the terrorists plotting to blow/shoot up Holsworthy army base in western Sydney.
Maybe, just maybe, that will make Hadley spontaneously combust.
http://www.nswbar.asn.au/circulars/2012/may/button.pdf
by shellbell on May 10, 2012 at 3:56 pm
A good piece for the evening news bulletins would be Albo saying Abbott hadn’t updated the registry for 2 years and then a shot of the LOTO. The look on the faces of Abbott, Bishop and Pyne were classic – caught out!!
by BH on May 10, 2012 at 3:57 pm
by victoria on May 10, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Had to go out all day .. have read back several pages … what was the SSO on today and was there anything interesting in QT?
by jenauthor on May 10, 2012 at 3:57 pm
I noticed in the House again that Mr Abbott is, in the non-PC terminology of yore, cack-handed.
And he may well be short-sighted – he was wearing specs in the House during the SSO barney.
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Hmmm, so Wilkie voted with the Opposition wrt Thomson – and Katter was MIA.
by fiona on May 10, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Spur the NSW police in the same press release said they expected their investigation to be completed this year and that they will not necessarily wait until all the matters requiring investigation are completed before laying any charges.
In relation to proof both the FWA and Tenby reports highlighted contracts awarded at above market rates and without proper authorization. The other side of that is the AMEX cards provided and paid for by the third party. The police are likely to get to the bottom of that and it will come down to who in HSU were involved. It’s basically the type of corruption that saw Nuttall charged and convicted.
by davidwh on May 10, 2012 at 4:00 pm
jenauthor
SSO
Same old boring crap.
by ruawake on May 10, 2012 at 4:00 pm
j
The Gubbies talked about what a wonderful thing the budget was and that it was time for Mr Abbott to put up or shut up in Address in Reply tonight.
Those Opposite fixated on what a terrible person the Prime Minister was for consorting with Mr Thomson.
The framework of the attack was that Labor is paying Mr Thomson’s legal bills, using the funds of the long-suffering poor of the HSU membership, in order to prevent him from becoming a bankrupt and therefore ineligble to be a member of the Reps.
Those Opposite stopped short of referring to chook raffles, but it was a near-run thing.
Only one red card, with mixed, but generally positive reviews on Ms Burke’s performance.
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 4:04 pm
shellbell
Once can always hope. Meanwhile, well done Greg Smith SC.
by fiona on May 10, 2012 at 4:04 pm
A reminder that the Government made a good decision delaying purchase of this.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/why-the-joint-strike-fighter-is-a-calamity-in-progress-20120509-1ycjt.html
by guytaur on May 10, 2012 at 4:05 pm
DWH
Well, that kills one of my assumptions. Those chaps know who is going to be controlling the bread bin for the next couple of NSW elections.
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Bushfire
What! Another one! Suspend him I say!
by ajm on May 10, 2012 at 4:06 pm
You would have to hope so.LOL
by Ian on May 10, 2012 at 4:07 pm
DavidWH
As far as I’m aware, the AMEX cards have nothing to do with Thomson as they relate to a state branch, not the national one
by spur212 on May 10, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Boerwar I think they were intimating that it may be possible to deal with some of the matters sooner than others but expect all matters to be completed this year.
by davidwh on May 10, 2012 at 4:08 pm
The NSW Plod investigation into HSU East has nothing to do with Thomson.
by ruawake on May 10, 2012 at 4:10 pm
@5716
Yes. You’re right – the polling must be wrong.
And
I always love the condescending attitude of the ALP to the voters.
by Compact Crank on May 10, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Another positive budget article. This time where it counts linked to job opportunity.
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/budget-2012-ict-opportunities-aplenty-20120510-1ye3w.html
by guytaur on May 10, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Rua – I thought there were possible civil matters arising from the FWA reprt
by Burgey on May 10, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Spur it has been alleged that Thomson was given a card. It hasn’t been established if he obtained a benefit from the card or if he gave something inappropriate in return. Also Thomson was involved in HSU NSW during the period being investigated.
We just have to wait and see what happens.
by davidwh on May 10, 2012 at 4:13 pm
DWH
When they say ‘completed’ I assume that they would lay charges or not.
This would or would not, set in train engagement with the legal industry which would not be ‘completed’ this side of the implementation of the Coalition’s DAP.
by Boerwar on May 10, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Yep breaches of the reporting required – 20 penalty points maximum penalty for an individual.
by ruawake on May 10, 2012 at 4:14 pm
@5729 – they said the same thing about the F-111, F-22, B-2, Wedgetail Project etc etc etc.
They aren’t making Holdens.
Anyone who expects these cutting edge complex projects to run exactly to schedule and cost are feeeling themselves up.
by Compact Crank on May 10, 2012 at 4:14 pm
What do you think talking to voters in three-word slogans is?
Three, one-syllable words apiece.
Stop the Boats … Great Big Tax – that’s the level of language sophistication of a kindergarten kid.
Condescending.
by Cuppa on May 10, 2012 at 4:14 pm
By whom?
by ruawake on May 10, 2012 at 4:14 pm
TKS Ru
by jenauthor on May 10, 2012 at 4:16 pm
BW and Aguirre
I agree with what you have said to the extent that the Govt will continue to be tainted by the Thomson situation as long as the Opposition continue to raise it. I suspect his statement will only lead to further questions. Oakshott’s reported attitude is a big worry and despite the correct arguments regarding “innocent until proven guilty” etc, I am not convinced Oakshott might not just act to have Thomson suspended, as wrong as that might appear to be.
If Thomson is suspended that leaves the numbers in a very precarious position and gives a lot of power to Wilkie and potentially Katter. They have said they won’t block supply, and vote on no confidence; but I am not confident Wilkie won’t vote against the Govt if he doesn’t get his way and if the he shares the sorts of concerns Oakshott has.
While Thomson remains a millstone around the Govt’s neck, the message will continually be blurred. As Rua said, Joe Average might not know who Thomson is. But does that matter when the general impression is one of chaos and a Government teetering on the edge of extinction. My sense is that a large proportion of the electorate is sick of the hung parliament and the general sense of uncertainty and lack of civility in the HoR. That’s where Abbott’s “I’ll wreck the joint” is working; and why it is likely to see, based on opinion polls, the electorate voting decisively to install one party as Government with a clear mandate. Any objective observer would have to say that the Libs are favourite to be given that mandate, as things currently stand.
by Lynchpin on May 10, 2012 at 4:20 pm
How much did the SA Libs give to Hockey Pokie Fisher.
by ruawake on May 10, 2012 at 4:20 pm
The detail of what happens to Thomsom will emerge, civil criminal etc but slowly.
Whatever happens he is fucked. He needs a court case to clear his name but he will not be able to afford one unless he stays in a well remunerated vocation ie HoR.
Crean made it clear that he has buckleys of getting pre-selection so the money will run out.
The Federal ALP is slowly and as undemonstrably as possible letting him go. It is all they can do.
If they were radical thinkers they may call on him to resign his seat knowing that he cannot afford to do so with a young family and 6 figure legal bills looming to have his day in Court. That would give them more space but they could lose government if he agreed to quit.
by shellbell on May 10, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Rua doesn’t matter who alleged the matter. The important issue is that it is being investigated and the NSW police have confirmed he is still a person of interest. So until those investigations are completed we can only speculate and offer opinions.
by davidwh on May 10, 2012 at 4:21 pm