Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
It’s Time
Gillard had been well-respected as Deputy PM but as the Rudd leaks took hold and the Oppn branded her “Juliar” it was easy for those with underlying sexism to turn to abuse. They bought the narrative too easily.
by lizzie on May 12, 2012 at 4:16 pm
Gary
Yes it is like saying GWS winning today means they are going to win the Grand Final.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 4:16 pm
There most certainly is. You only have to read some of the shit posted here about the PM to know it.
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 4:17 pm
You’re another one, Daretotread.
Let’s hear a sober, reflective, comprehensive analysis of Abbott’s policy suite.
Starting with, say, why he believes parents will blow their bonus payments if they get them now, but won’t if they have to wait until next year.
And which parents will blow their bonuses? Just the Westies? Or does it incude the North Shore ones too?
We’ve found out so much about them in the past few days, how they’re battlers too, struggling to pay a mortgage, so I guess it can’t just be the Westies who’ll go done the club, and blow it all on the pokies, as Abbott suggests.
No shirking now. I’m conceding your point about Gillard. It looks next to impossible. So let us know what we have in store for us, perhaps within the next month or two from Abbott.
by Bushfire Bill on May 12, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Michael Lawler was an Abbott appointment from the Howard years and the FWA rules applying to Thomson are Howard/Abbott rules.
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Gary:
Some people need to emote publicly in order to feel as though they are coping.
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Sheedy is going off.
by guytaur on May 12, 2012 at 4:20 pm
On the Windows scammers I usually answer with ‘What computer?’ ‘We don’t have a computer’ They always hang up before I say goodbye.
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 4:20 pm
P.S. to DTT: you DO agree that we should know what the Coalition’s policies are, don’t you?
by Bushfire Bill on May 12, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Of course, the irony of Abbott’s argument that parents will blow their money on the pokies is that he was arguing only a few months ago that the same people should be allowed to make their own decisions when it came to spending their money…
by zoomster on May 12, 2012 at 4:20 pm
It’s Time
Part of work choices that were retained as I understand it.
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Oh, did he?
And what does SWMBO signify?
She Who Must Be Obeyed.
Oh, what a fkn laugh.
You obviously didn’t get the laugh.
The laugh was She Wasn’t Obeyed. She Just Was Allowed To Think She Was Obeyed.
The people on this site who use that acronym, from what I’ve observed, are the one’s who are taking the mickey.
The others, like you DTT and bemused, think it’s literal.
by kezza2 on May 12, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Not to mention the bitter things posted here about the LOTO.
Oh, hang on, that doesn’t fit with the poor PM Gillard is being treated badly meme. Sorry, continue as before please….
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 4:32 pm
fredn @ 1265
Enough is enough. From now on, I will call stupid for what it is.
Apparently you think it a good idea to win a fight by underestimating your opponent. It isn’t. Look at how successful Abbott has been in the polls.
Nothing in my post could possibly be taken of approving of Minchin. But he was a more substantial and formidable opponent than Costello for example.
You are doubly stupid.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Abbott must find it hilarious that he’s allowed to say anything and contradict anything he says and just about never get picked up on it.
by rishane on May 12, 2012 at 4:34 pm
confessions @ 1267
Speaking of stupid, right on cue, here’s confessions.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Zoomster – I hope George Wright is noting all the contradictions and is read to have nice clear charts showing them.
BTW – have you seen how well Emmo is going on tweeting. He’s a cracker at it. I just love the bloke’s dedication to fighting the Tories. I notice Doogie is as quiet as a mouse except for his bagging of one of the budget policies last week.
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Bemused,
You are doubly stupid with a cherry on top.
by Greensborough Growler on May 12, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Mod Lib
Our contention would be that the LOTO deserves them, and the PM does not.
Interesting to see you standing up for someone you want to see ousted as leader!
by zoomster on May 12, 2012 at 4:36 pm
I am aware of no law that says that there has to be a half-Senate election if there is a HoR election during the Senate`s election year window.
The Government could call a HoR only election in the second haft of 2013 and leave the half-Senate election until 2014.
Leaving the half-Senate election until later would increase the likelihood of a DD and mean it was likely to be sooner, as the “you can`t have a DD between a half-Senate election and the changeover” argument would not be relevant.
Having a DD sooner would decrease the time an Abbott Government would have a hostile Senate. This is one of the main downsides to a HoR only election.
Having a half-Senate separate election would decrease the likelihood of Coalition control as it would be a giant by-election and there would have been months of Abbott Government.
by Tom the first and best on May 12, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Another problem for Abbott is his state mates have stolen – and squandered – his thunder. The tide has definitely turned on Baillieu, O’Farrell is on the nose, Can Do can’t, and darnit Barnett! Lots of promises, nothing delivered. Abbott’s “Trust me, I’m a self-confessed liar – look over there!” shtick just isn’t going to cut it.
by Jaeger on May 12, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Mod Lib:
How does bitterness expressed towards the LOTO excuse the rank sexism directed towards the PM?
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Do you not see the point that if you think there is media bias because Gillard is great and the media don’t seem to think so, that a perfectly reasonable explanation might be that you are wrong in thinking Gillard is great?
Just saying…
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 4:38 pm
guytaur @ 1275
Sorry, my tardis is only up to 1275 and can’t see ahead to 1282.
What is your inanity this time?
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 4:38 pm
GG:
Resorting to defensive name-calling is a sign bemused knows he’s been caught out peddling multiple idiocies.
Minchin denies the scientific evidence of global warming, passive smoking, and apparently exposure to asbestos.
No sensible person would ever claim the man has any substance at all. Quite the opposite – such an individual deserves pillorying not lauding.
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Why is bitterness towards the PM mean sexism but bitterness towards the LOTO does not?
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Over at The Political Sword, one of my favourite people – Talk Turkey – has posted:
Indeed!
by fiona on May 12, 2012 at 4:40 pm
confesssions,
Agree! I pillory Bemused all the time.
by Greensborough Growler on May 12, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Mod Lib
I for one am saying that ALP policies are great,the PM is implementing them and Abbott is frothing wondering how he lost an election 18 months ago.
by ruawake on May 12, 2012 at 4:41 pm
I had a chin wag with a young fellow who lamented that we must have an election NOW.
When I asked him why, his reply was he just wanted the aggro to stop.
He said everytime he turns on the box, the radio there’s whinging and aggro on how bad the government is & he feels like he cannot escape the negativity & he just wants it to end.
Have had a few conversations along similar lines lately.
Mission accomplished MRabbott & your media lickspittles!
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 4:43 pm
1370
The tide has definitely turned on Baillieu. At state level it is receding slowly but there is evidence that it is effecting Victorians willingness to vote for a change to the Coalition at Commonwealth level. That 54% 2PP for the Commonwealth ALP in Victoria shows that. I would say that it also shows Baillieu is going to loose in 2014 (unless he looses a by-election in a Coalition held seat before then).
by Tom the first and best on May 12, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Abbott is a weathervane, Abbott does regularly cut and run from his own pressers.
Perfectly valid criticisms of any politician, they do not bear any relation to the lying crap Gillard cops, and Gillard does not cut and run from her pressers.
by political animal on May 12, 2012 at 4:43 pm
John Faulkner on Nick Minchin:
by William Bowe on May 12, 2012 at 4:43 pm
A chimp in a suit could be “successful in the polls” if they had the compliant media he’s got.
Don’t overestimate Abbott: he’s barely capable of stringing words together (He just is). He’s just a puppet for some of the wealthiest, most powerful forces on the planet.
by Cuppa on May 12, 2012 at 4:43 pm
I’m not the one saying it’s bitterness towards the PM. I’m saying it’s sexism and misogyny.
It was you who used bitterness, not me.
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Fightback – bemused-style
Hahahahaha
What a load of BS.
You applauded him.
Now you’re backing off when you’ve been given a little bit of info – which you should have been able to provide to us.
Really. Didn’t say that when you posted your support of him, did you?
Minchin was a bloke who was determined to get rid of unionism.
Then again, you want to get rid of unionism, too.
You have posted that you think Labor factionalism is too heavily weighted towards unions. You have no idea of Labor’s roots, if that’s the case.
You should get out of the Labor Party.
But have fun in the Libs or the Nats
They have factions, too, in case you hadn’t noticed.
And, Costello, the worst Treasurer in Australia’s history, according to Treasury.
Lazy, bastard.
by kezza2 on May 12, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Mod Lib
The media have their own motivation for dragging Labor down. It is easier because there is an innate sexism in much of Oz. Surely you agree that the Murdoch media is biased to the Right?
by lizzie on May 12, 2012 at 4:44 pm
it’s time. i think its because they find the first excuse to say ‘i told you so’. asset sales for bligh and carbon price/tax for gillard. i’ve never known male politicians to cop it for telling ‘lies’ like that before.
by middle man on May 12, 2012 at 4:45 pm
Rua:
After 2008/9 when the talk was about the ALP winning 100 seats or more, now you are saying Abbott must be disappointed with essentially drawing with Gillard in 2010!
If you think the 2010 result was a great result for the ALP lets have more of it! It was certainly a miraculous result for the LNP after 2007, thats for sure!!!
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 4:45 pm
The Power of the Govt was shown last week, introduced kids payments, same day 2nd reading, same day GG does her stuff, 3rd reading, off to the Senate, passed, returned to Reps – law, cheques in the mail.
While Abbott flapped about nothing and hadn’t even figured what he supported.
by ruawake on May 12, 2012 at 4:45 pm
Senator Faulkner: ever the gentleman.
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 4:46 pm
He lost, he did not essentially draw, he lost. Get it lost. That is why he is Leader of the Opposition HE LOST.
by ruawake on May 12, 2012 at 4:47 pm
My exact point is that you always see any criticism of Gillard through the “sexism” prism.
I understand why, it absolves your side of any blame.
Nothing is ever the fault of the ALP.
I can’t wait to see the repercussions of this “born to rule” arrogance when the voters get to let you know what they think of this!
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 4:47 pm
ModLib
I’ve never said Gillard was great.
But I do think the media is biased in its reporting of her and of Labor.
by zoomster on May 12, 2012 at 4:47 pm
kezza2
[And, Costello, the worst Treasurer in Australia’s history, according to Treasury.
Lazy, bastard.
John howard for mine,and worst PM holds both for some.
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 4:48 pm
if a male had performed like Bligh did during the floods and yasi, they would have romped in the next election.
by middle man on May 12, 2012 at 4:49 pm
He won more seats, and in a majority of HOR seats, the majority of voters wanted him to be PM. Two MPs voted against their electorates preferences and chose the ALP, which is entirely legitimate and within their rights, hence the ALP government. However, Abbott’s side won more seats and a had a majority of seats TPP preferences.
by Mod Lib on May 12, 2012 at 4:49 pm
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 4:49 pm
mod lib. he didnt win the TPP. the Mod has corrected you on that many times before.
by middle man on May 12, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Lizzie,
Don’t bother with him. If you’ve got to go that far back to basics, he’s not worth it.
by Cuppa on May 12, 2012 at 4:51 pm