Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
bemused:
Oh dear. This is what someone who knows observes about Minchin and his so-called masterful tactics:
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2011/06/lord-of-misrule.html
The “masterful tactics” bemused claims make Minchin “substantial” are responsible for Minchin’s own party being out of government because its leader took Minchin’s advice and refused to negotiate with the cross benchers.
The “getting his way within his party” bemused attributes as Minchin “influencing numbers” went nowhere on a topic Minchin felt very strongly about. So strongly that he went on national primetime TV to emote about it. Some tactician. Some serious opponent. Yet bemused thinks this is evidence of substance. No wonder he fails to see the genuine subtance in Julia Gillard.
Perhaps bemused, you should spend less time here hectoring others and denouncing them as stupid and having comprehension problems, because the completely over the top way you’ve responded to quite reasonable criticism of your comments means the only one who looks stupid and having comprehension problems right now is you.
This is why I and BH laughed at your comments about Minchin. Truly ridiculous.
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Bemused, your unprovoked attacks on Confessions is like a dog returning to its vomit!
by Centre on May 12, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Yep he has all but named Michael already. He has now flushed out all the idiot punters, including Abbott, who have a theory about how identity fraud is impossible.
Maybe Abbott can explain why the Govt he was part of did nothing about SIM card fraud, does Mr Abbott really want to go down another technology rabbit hole?
Fake documents – oh how strange. I found a CD in a stolen laptop the Federal Police returned and forgot to remove. Blank Centrelink forms required to open a bank account.
What happened – oh thats right another list, credit cards, amounts and valid till. This guy did not bother with a drivers licence he went the whole hog, a legit Australian Passport in an assumed name.
Old decrepit journos should be careful about their understanding of how easy it is to pretend to be someone else.
by ruawake on May 12, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Presumably Thomson is saying that the person who set him up used the prostitutes (given there were fees raised and paid in his name).
If he names the person under parliamentary privilege, all hell could break loose.
by Diogenes on May 12, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Dio
Williamson has been mentioned as the perp.
Interesting to note the acting national president Chris Brown, stated that Williamson & Jackson are tight & vote in blocks together.
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Minchin is a real piece of work…
by cud chewer on May 12, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Wiiliam – could you give me Kezza’s email address please as per her post @1514. Thanks
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Dee and ru
Bloody hell.
by Diogenes on May 12, 2012 at 7:00 pm
mod lib @ 1392
I am starting to think it is confessions inherent misandry.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 7:00 pm
BB @1292
Agree, make it clear a vote for coal is a vote for coal, unwind the gains
Create a list of his top 10 stupidest and most expensive policy reversals
explain the differences in a paragraph each, three words if possible, that seems to work
sell it over and over for 17 months
at least one point should be raised in every interview, speech or community function
it it doesn’t get traction in the media, advertise, relentlessly
explain over and over
if you remove the CP you get $1300 soil magic and green army instead
if you stop the NBN you stay on ADSL or get overloaded wireless
do the costing for nauru, how much is is per toilet flush
no mining tax means how many $/fn goes to the miners
existing ppl to gbn 1.5% tax PPL
costed NDIS v’s aspirational
make up examples of how to save $50b from the budget
match them on asian languages, pointing out they are just restoring them to pre howard cuts
ciggy plain packaging v’s ?
pokies v’s ?
explain what the health reforms are, i have little idea
transport deregulation ?
aged care ?
if voters want that, give it to them
by kickin in the front seat on May 12, 2012 at 7:03 pm
cud chewer
Have always associated minchin and abetz with godwin gretch utegate,and think they have something to be answered, labor never got down to their level.
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Presumably the prostitutes wouldn’t have much trouble identifying if it was Williamson or Thomson.
by Diogenes on May 12, 2012 at 7:03 pm
lizzie @ 1403
Careful lizzie, the thought police will ‘out’ you as a secret Abbott admirer.
Of course your post is entirely correct. Abbott has out-manoeuvred the Govt and the end result may be all of us suffering from his malignant policies. Unless of course the PM and rest of the Govt work out how to beat him.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Diogenes,
No one has been able to id Mr Thomson according to NSW police fraud brief.
This was put forward today in a tweet by Chris Murphy.
Consider that as you want.
by Doyley on May 12, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Diog
lol – can the pros be subpoened (or however it’s spelt)?
by Mick77 on May 12, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Diog,
Short-arm parade?
by This little black duck on May 12, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Good one Diogs, I agree.
I’m sick of hearing about Thomson.
Let’s talk about policies.
by Centre on May 12, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Doyley
Perhaps it was dark.
by Diogenes on May 12, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Dio
Must add: the alleged perp!
Interesting too is that Kathy Jackson will be the guest speaker at the HR Nicholls Society. BTW Jackson’s lawyers are also representing Slipper’s accuser.
According to VexNews she has allegedly been appearing alongside union busting barrister, Stuart Wood SC from HR Nicholls.
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 7:08 pm
@Dio I had to wonder though if Abbott is mistakenly trying to protect the Union over Thompson because he’s putting the dirt on Thompson over prostitutes…
Yet the Union itself is under fire…
by zoidlord on May 12, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Interesting to see how the discussion turns when the rest of the Tenby review is released.
Might come just after the statement by Mr Thomson Monday week.
by Doyley on May 12, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Urgghh!! Swannies played like mangy dogs but Tigers were terrific and it was a well deserved win.
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Mod Lib @ 1418
That is you at your worst.
I could easily write a list like that describing the Howard Govt or the Abbott Opposition. In fact it would show a lot more twists and turns and could be made a lot more humorous.
Please return to adult conversation.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Dio,
Or else every one had their eyes closed !
On a serious note three more reports may well change the whole tone of this.
NSW, VIC police and the rest of the Tenby report.
Mr Abbott has gone way out on this, especially today.
Interesting times.
by Doyley on May 12, 2012 at 7:12 pm
bemused
Think gab bot will do that to himself,needs no help at all.
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Seems they cannot be found. The FWA Delegate – to be fair, found that Thomson credit cards paid for a bit of nookie, but that there was no evidence Craig got the nookie.
Although the dates of supposed nookie are interesting. NSW Labor meeting weekends.
by ruawake on May 12, 2012 at 7:14 pm
So, let’s see where we are up to in the Thomson saga…
Michael Lawler was appointed to FWA by Tony Abbott back in the Howard days.
Michael Lawler is Kathy Jackson’s boyfriend/partner/lover.
Michael Lawler failed to ensure that the witness Craig Thomson put forward was interviewed as part of that investigation. Three years and they didn’t bother?
Kathy Jackson’s former husband Jeff Jackson was employed by HSU until 2009 and has been accused of retaining a car HSU provided to him during his employment.
Kathy Jackson has been all over the media for months now screeching about her desire to destroy Craig Thomson and anyone else she doen’t much like the look of.
Kathy Jackson earns mega-bucks.
Michael Williamson and Kathy Jackson are either deadly foes or as close as two peas in a pod, depending on who you talk to.
The HSU Credit Union is said to have made substantial loans to Ms Jackson to allow her to maintain the lifestyle to which she thinks she is entitled. No-one is too sure about how/when/if these have been repaid.
Craig Thomson has always said he was innocent of all allegations.
Craig Thomson, now free from the restraints imposed by being a member of the Labor caucus, can at last tell it the way he sees it.
It’s not hard if you move in the right circles, to obtain ID, credit cards, drivers licences etc in a name that is not your own.
It is not beyond the bounds of possibility to think that maybe someone with a grudge or sixty against Thomson (maybe he was going to blow the whistle on that celebrated whistleblower K Jackson) would set him up.
Setting up Craig Thomson would not be hard, you’d just need the fake plastic and a few henchmen willing to pretend to be Craig at a lot of brothels and fine dining establishments, all at company expense. (Gee, it must have been hard getting anyone to do that part).
Craig says he was interstate on at least one of the dates he was supposed to have been frolicking courtesy of HSU.
Craig has been looking remarkably calm and unflustered lately, not at all like a bloke about to be found guilt of the treasonable offence of visiting a prostitute – or six.
Kathy Jackson looks and sounds more maniacal every day.
Have I missed anything?
by leone on May 12, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Thought that was supposed to be inspection
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 7:15 pm
It’s Time @ 1420
That is how I read it.
It is to Bligh’s credit that she got as mush of a bounce as she did during the floods.
The ‘brains’ behind the asset sales and other policy disasters seems to have been Fraser. Bligh’s big mistake was in listening to that arrogant twerp.
At least he is gone now and the Qld ALP can rebuild unencumbered by him and his discredited policies.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 7:16 pm
leone
I like your list much more than Mod Libs
by lizzie on May 12, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Finally some sense on this Blog. Krudd being re-installed is getting closer and closer. he has being laying low no doubt beding down some innovative policy ideas to take to the next election. ideas which neither Gillard or Swan would be capable of. Rudd is the creative genius behind the ALP , the Steve Jobs of the party. prick to work with but made the company the biggest in the world.
by the spectator on May 12, 2012 at 7:19 pm
I’m sceptical of claims that Thomson was set up.
It seems a very elaborate set up gig when presumably there are many easier ways to set up colleagues that don’t involve the use of other people like prostitutes.
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 7:21 pm
(Unfortunately for Labor most Abbott will do absolutely no harm if he wins in 2013 and that is the problem. The majority think they were well off during the Howard years, forgetting that their));
I doubt very much, he could not sit still and do nothing
I coukd see, workchoices selling medibank private,,
Not increasing pensions. And who knows what else
None of us can predict what will be happening in the future yers
Will he cauce trouble with indones ia fall out with china
Abbott is an unknown , a scary unknown to say he would do nothing.
He talks now with out thinking its not commented on
What if he acted or gave commands with out thinking
How any one coukd think abnott woukd be a spectator, is really not thinking about his personality, he is nno howard
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 7:21 pm
lol Ruddsters are out.
by zoidlord on May 12, 2012 at 7:21 pm
You wouldn’t know a straw man argument if you fell over it.
You just trot out that put-down, as if it carries a lot of weight.
And as if you know what it means. (well, let’s face it, you’ve seen it used a fair bit on here, and it does seem to shut down an argument).
And, it does, in the right hands.
But, your straw-man name-calling (let’s not call it an argument, because all you’ve done is label someone with the tag) doesn’t make the cut.
All you use it for is to hopefully shut-down what is happening to you.
But do you question what is happening to you?
A lot of people have called you out on your attacks on JG.
Why have they done that?
Because, night after night, day after day, you sit on here and bag JG.
You lament the change of leadership. You want KR restored.
You then backtrack and pretend you don’t understand why people are angry with the way you refuse to support JG.
And when you’re called on it, you have the gall to try to misrepresent anybody else’s opinion and throw up your hands in innocence.
You consistently misrepresent my position and anybody else’s position and then try to argue that position you’ve set up.
You, yourself, are the epitome of the straw man.
by kezza2 on May 12, 2012 at 7:21 pm
leone
You missed that Michael Lawler had Kathy Jackson committed to a mental health ward and that the FWA delegate has identified 3 occasions when Thomson must have given his card to someone else.
by ruawake on May 12, 2012 at 7:22 pm
I fully agree with the huge reduction in defence spending.After all in Australia we have the HSU ninjas…the uber stealth warriors…capable of using other peoples mobile phones without their knowledge, even making phone calls from their hotel rooms…sneaking in through the crack at the doorway…expert grapholgists…fully versed in impersonation….poor Craig, how could he compete with these super spies…in fact he was so afeard of em he dinna wanna tell nobody about them.
by zimmerman on May 12, 2012 at 7:23 pm
BH @ 1428
And I wish I had kept a brilliant pamphlet by Max Teichmann “Don’t Let History Repeat Itself” which compared 1975 Australia with Germany of the 1930s.
Same tactics, just create an endless atmosphere of crisis and offer the ‘strong leader’ who will resolve it.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Selling Medibank private would be sensible. why should the govt own it? the govt owning it does nothing for health insurance premiums in keeping them down. the govt should just sell it and use the cash.
by the spectator on May 12, 2012 at 7:23 pm
The spectator @ 1580
I have preferred replacements for Gillard and they don’t include Rudd. However, if it happens the timing will need to be superb: maximising and exploiting any poll bounce, policy decisions and announcements (eg deferring carbon tax), going to polls before old animosities start to bite his leadership, etc Can’t suggest how best timed but with optimum timing Rudd could make a fight of it.
by Mick77 on May 12, 2012 at 7:24 pm
‘fess do you have a mobile phone?
does you phone allow call forwarding?
Do you know when your phone is forwarding calls?
by ruawake on May 12, 2012 at 7:26 pm
@the spectator/1588
Sure you know what happens when they sell stuff right? Hell breaks loose, happens with every single Assist sale.
by zoidlord on May 12, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Based on the evidence thus far, the published polls where Abbott is now 8pts aheand of Gillard the tactics have been extremely successfull so far. It is now upto the ALP to counter this but with communicators like Gillard and Swan I doubt they are capable
by the spectator on May 12, 2012 at 7:27 pm
It begs the question to Thomson: what did you do about this in the 5-6-7 years that you’ve known about it and who did you tell? I’d be a tad angry and wouldn’t have approved the expenditure (which he admits he did) if someone set me up this way and it became the subject of criminal investigation, wouldn’t you PBers?
by Mick77 on May 12, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Why not do a Hockey, sell it and keep the dividend. That was one of the Libs dumber bits of Auditing.
by ruawake on May 12, 2012 at 7:28 pm
And, as if to confirm what I said at 1584
you again belittle another poster
Rather than refuting an argument with facts,
you resort to a put-down.
Please return to adult conversation, indeed.
Physician, heal thyself.
by kezza2 on May 12, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Why would it have to be either. Haven’t you heard of escort services/brothels for visiting business blokes or dignataries? Many CEO’s PAs know all about booking these services – known as normal business expenses to help seal a deal or that’s what it was before the retirement of a couple of my friends who were PAs. We used to laugh about it but threatened our own OH’s with all kinds of nasty things if they tried it.
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Keating did it all the time. qantas, commonwealth bank etc NSW should have done it years ago sell the power assets and invest infrastructure except the weak kneed leaders there did not stand up to the unions. its called leadership and making tough decisions in the long run interest. john robertson the fool in charge at the moment can be thanked for blocking these sales.
by the spectator on May 12, 2012 at 7:31 pm
It’s Time @ 1435
John Faulkner is a NSW Labor Senator from the left of the party. He is highly regarded and was one of the authors of the report into the 2010 election result that is in part withheld from party members (I wonder why?).
Kezza2 seems to have lost the plot long ago.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 7:31 pm
ru:
Yes, I have a mobile, and the only way I’d know if it was forwarded somewhere else was if I suddenly received no calls.
I have a work mobile which gets substantialy more calls than my personal one which gets mostly texts. If my work mobile suddenly stopped ringing I’d want to know why.
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 7:33 pm