Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
c@tmomma
Perhaps he misread it as c@tpappa!
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Boerwar – OH and I were just talking about the ant activity here and down in the village tis morning. They are very, very busy and marching everywhere.
Is that the sign of a wet winter?
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 10:19 pm
From my kitchen window i see te tide come in go out come in
Happens every day,
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Geoffrey, yes I know. That’s my point. I can’t see the PV getting to an acceptable level this year.
by Lynchpin on May 12, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Gweneth
Must be on your end, avatars appear fine to me!
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:19 pm
zoidlord @ 1816
I don’t do sarcasm.
That is a straight forward refutation of a false accusation.
No more. No less.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 10:20 pm
fiona
stupid westminster bear pit system. abbot would be lost in a congress house – consider that yee moan-archists
by geoffrey on May 12, 2012 at 10:20 pm
Lynchpin
Up to then the only view was the shrill liberals,no presumption of innocence,a slimy abbott was making all the allegations,so guess the guy defended himself.
Perhaps it will be revealed that an abbott appointee ,who is Kathy Jacksons partner ,will be announced under parliamentry privilidge.
Who knows ,your guess is as good as anyones.
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 10:20 pm
Thanks My say. Yes, the tide does go in and out. It just happens to be out at the moment.
by Lynchpin on May 12, 2012 at 10:20 pm
new2this is not.
I see to remember him getting banned before. I wonder how long he will last this time.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 10:21 pm
So STFU and get with the program.
by Bushfire Bill on May 12, 2012 at 10:21 pm
lynchpin
i think this whole blog is unanimous if the pv flatlines all year leadership is fair game
by geoffrey on May 12, 2012 at 10:21 pm
BW
Everyone who pleads not guilty has a defense.
The point is that it was Thomson himself who authorised the use of HSU funds for his own campaign according to the FWA. The FWA say he didn’t declare it because he wasn’t allowed to do it for those purposes.
by Diogenes on May 12, 2012 at 10:21 pm
victoria @ 1818
Thank you victoria.
You are another person I can have a respectful disagreement with.
As well as frequently agreeing.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Who is Kathy Jackson’s partner?
Schnappi, are you only speculating?
by Lynchpin on May 12, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Thanks for the good vibes btw. Sorry to have to report that early signs that I have ovarian have now been dashed I am dealing with gallbladder cancer – Rare and tricky but not beyond hope just yet. A harder road to travel but I am fit and healthy so look forward to the best outcome rather than the worst.
Sounds trite but when you are in this spot a lot of the angst wasted on crap really stands out. Smell the roses, love the children, dance and be merry…
by Gweneth on May 12, 2012 at 10:22 pm
bemused:
Defend the arguments you’ve articulated about Minchin. Don’t hide behind weasel words about me verballing you when all I’ve done is quote the exact words you’ve used about minchin.
Let’s have some substance rather than belligerent fluff from you for a change. Why is Minchin a more savvy operator than say Gillard who is actually delivering stuff rather than running away from it like Minchin did?
by confessions on May 12, 2012 at 10:23 pm
victoria, my say,
That’s true, victoria. However, if that Abbott creature becomes PM, I determine, here and now, to become a hairy hermit and scrounge food from the back garden. Might need the odd chook, though.
The next door neighbour has a petrol-driven tiller machine. I’d guess it dates from the 1930s. It is a beast of a thing. I know, I’ve used it. But, if you don’t lose a leg and it doesn’t head off into the scrub, it does the job.
So, I’ll return the plot out the back to its former use as a market garden.
Oh, and I’ll most likely need a bunker for the duration.
I understand that the common garden snail, if soused properly, is edible. Some garlic, some parsley, perhaps a dash of plonk, if available. More plonk.
my say,
Yes, quinces need tender care. I stew them with some lemon or lime, sugar, a clove or two, cinnamon … fresh cream. Simple but nicely yum.
by Scringler on May 12, 2012 at 10:23 pm
What program is that?
by Lynchpin on May 12, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Vic interesting re avatars but then technology amazes me. I dont even really get how a telephone canwork.
by Gweneth on May 12, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Please let me indulge WB.
3 pound rainbow trout from the thredbo river today.
by rummel on May 12, 2012 at 10:25 pm
(then … “The AYES (i.e., those who support the motion) shall pass to the right of the Chair, the NOES (those who oppose the motion) shall pass to the left; I appoint the Members for …. /Senators …. tellers for the Ayes, and the Members for …. / Senators …. tellers for the Noes.”
Yes, I have to admit it (but please don’t tell anyone else) …. I’m a political junkie…)
I am learning all the time,
Me to but a scared junkie at this time,
But still have the philosophy. Good defeats evil in time
Just wish it would hurry up
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Gweneth
Not trite at all.
I’m new to PB, so feel somewhat presumptuous – but my very best wishes to you. Dance and be merry indeed, and keep smiling as much and as loudly as you can.
by fiona on May 12, 2012 at 10:29 pm
Nice work. Did you eat it, and if so, how did you cook it?
by drake on May 12, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Lynchpin
Michael Lawler!
FWA Vice President appointed by Rabbott when he was a minister in the Howard government.
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Lynchpin
Michael Lawler 2nd in charge of FWA
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Scringler
If u boil quinces about one hour
Strain in mesh wire strainer over night,
For every cup of juice add one cup of sugar boil, . Put a saucer in fridge,
Boil few min, test on cokd saucer it it sits with out moving u have just made quince jelly
I put half a lemon in when boiking helps the pectin
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Happy mothers day, and grandma day,
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Rummel
I am soooo…jealous!
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 10:32 pm
BB
Seriously, you don’t want to know.
If we knew what their policies were (they don’t have any but humor me), we’d be even more depressed at what they will do to the country if they get in.
It really doesn’t bear thinking about.
by Diogenes on May 12, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Gweneth
Is the treatment required different in light of this diagnosis?
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Gweneth – a timely reminder, thankyou, and sending positive vibes for your treatment.
Night all
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 10:32 pm
@bemused/1855
Denile is a river in Africa.
by zoidlord on May 12, 2012 at 10:33 pm
C@tmomma @ 1820
Not quite right.
I see it as one possible solution.
That is based on the empirical evidence of published polls. They show the Government and the PM in a dire situation and indicate that the voting public has a strong preference for KR as ALP leader. I did not invent the polls.
The other is that the PM finds her mojo and gets on top of the opposition. I regularly engage in serious discussions with some posters here as to how that might be done.
I am entitled to my opinion, but like any opinion, it could be wrong. Time will tell.
Yes, my interpretation could prove wrong. That is true of many opinions here and elsewhere.
I do sometimes show exasperation with being verballed or having poor devices such as ‘straw men’ used by some here.
That does disappoint me as I regard you as worth engaging with despite our disagreement on some points. I always read your posts.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 10:34 pm
2 questions. Was he ACTUALLY appointed by Abbott? What is Lawler’s background?
by Lynchpin on May 12, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Gweneth,
I’m sending you good vibes.
by C@tmomma on May 12, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Rummel
Do you live up that way?
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Scrimgler
I doubt you will need to become a hairy hermit!
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Lynchpin
stop being a doubting thomas
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 10:36 pm
rummel,
Holiday – or where you live? Either way I’m jealous: the Snowys at this time of year are just gorgeous.
by fiona on May 12, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Victoria yes different but as I was already booked in there was no delay. Chemo then surgery and then more chemo. Surgery will be the tricky bit.
by Gweneth on May 12, 2012 at 10:37 pm
(That’s true, victoria. However, if that Abbott creature becomes PM, I determine, here and now, to become a hairy hermit and scrounge food from the back garden. Might need the odd chook, though.)
Us too if we had a cow , and flour mill we coukd be selfsufficient
I make my own bread, jams preserves, ckooks, 15 fruit trees,
I would never turn on the news , ir look at him .
I would try to forget we are part of aus.
By the wy the meme of the libs here is we want an election
Quess who was here last week
by my say on May 12, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Gweneth
Does the surgery involve removing the gall bladder?
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Got a communique from Gus just now.
Still no more on “moar”, however he is hearing that a prominent member of the House of Reps is resigning from their position.
Not their seat mind you, just what he/she does in Parliament.
If true, it’ll change what goes on there rather dramatically.
I can say no more.
Watch this space for a dramatic announcement. Or not.
by Dan Gulberry on May 12, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Lynchpin
Yes, he was appointed by the Rabbott.
His history I have not followed.
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Not yet.
Tommorow at home it will be cooked.
Trout stuffed with crisp bacon, beer, lemon, and pan fried pine nuts then BBQ cooked.
by rummel on May 12, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Rummel – thanks for the good thoughts btw. We are have more in common here than we have differences. At least we care enough to turn up for the argy bargy.
by Gweneth on May 12, 2012 at 10:40 pm
zoidlord @ 1835
OK for all except me?
Quoting out of context. Very poor form.
I had been accused of thinking all women are stupid.
Stupidity knows no gender. There are stupid people of both genders. Is that sexist?
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 10:40 pm
zoidlord
Quiz
What major river has reversed it’s direction of flow?
(And don’t listen to the lyrics of The Killers for the answer. They got it wrong.)
by Diogenes on May 12, 2012 at 10:40 pm
There will be MOAR!!!!!!!
by The Finnigans on May 12, 2012 at 10:40 pm