Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan
Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Dan You know what they say, when there is honey, the bees will congregate buzzzz buzzzz buzzzz
by The Finnigans on May 12, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Victoria, yes probably removal and possibly other bits too. Major renovation.
by Gweneth on May 12, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Diogenes
I absolutely love the band The Killers!!!!!
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:42 pm
The Finns
Moar now or we still have to wait???
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Hi Gweneth,
I am way behind, but better late than never.
I hope your treatment is progressing well and the chemo is not knocking you around too much.
Thinking of you and wishing for the best.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Kezza,
Yes, I saw Dee’s ref. Didn’t get any better the second time around.
Bek, Rupe and Michelle all in one.
george has competition.
by This little black duck on May 12, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Used to go fishing Lake Tantangra and Lake Ecumbene,but younger then,would camp for two weeks at a time in September.
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Fiona and Dee
Holiday, I live in Queanbeyan.
Yes they are gorgeous at any time of year. -2.1 at this point in time with snow falling while I snuggle a bottle of red In front of the fire.
by rummel on May 12, 2012 at 10:44 pm
my say,
You can do the same with japonica fruit. Which reminds me – must check our japonica bush tomorrow. Quince/japonica jelly on toast is yummy. And in cheese sandwiches. And with cold chicken/duck/lamb/pork. And on ice cream…
by fiona on May 12, 2012 at 10:44 pm
@bemused/1897
don’t put words in my mouth.
And No but you quoted WOMEN.
p.s. I am male.
@Dio/1898
Chicago River?
by zoidlord on May 12, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Well, rummel, you can get nearly as cold in Queanbeyan – I know: I was born in and grew up in Canberra
by fiona on May 12, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Puff,
Nice comment about NotNew2This. Very smelly last time, too.
by This little black duck on May 12, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Lynchpin
Though, I do remember reading somewhere that he was going to stand for Liberal pre-selection, alas, have been unable to find that snippet.
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 10:45 pm
That’s the most delicious thing I’ve heard of in a while. How do you use the beer in the stuffing? (And what kind of beer?)
by Bird of paradox on May 12, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Excellent.
by drake on May 12, 2012 at 10:45 pm
DanG – Just waiting for this laptop to finish recharging so I can log off and saw that comment. Heard it last night but didn’t want to believe it.
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 10:45 pm
vic
I’ve heard a rumour they might be headlining the BDO. Let’s keep our fingers crossed. They haven’t been here in ages.
by Diogenes on May 12, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Gweneth
Sending you positive vibes and agree about the important things.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Bemused, my friend, who is a Federal parliamentarian, is a Rudd supporter. I trust this person’s judgement. Ultimately, I want the ALP to retain Government. I wish I knew the best way to secure that. My fear of a return to Rudd would be that his popularity in the polls is soft and somewhat illusory. Still, he seems more popular to non-Labor voters than to Labor voters.
While he is popular, my impression is that he lacks fortitude. I think the Tories will savage him mercilessly. Swan’s comments in February will be trotted out. The Tories will run the disunity line.
I am also afraid of the NSW ALP disease of revolving door leadership. It was an embarrassment.
I would therefore prefer to see Gillard remain leader.
But as I posted above, the current polling is diabolical. Without some major schism in the Libs, Abbott will continue his aggressive campaign that has been so effective. SNIP: See article 11 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management. But he is PPM. Is is so thoroughly frustrating I feel like tearing my hear out.
It is hard to believe that not so long ago we had 53-47 polls. Oh, for that luxury now!
by Lynchpin on May 12, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Bit of information on Michael Lawler:
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/02/one-flew-over-the-hsu-nest-kathy-jackson-asks-is-kathy-jackson-a-hero/
by C@tmomma on May 12, 2012 at 10:47 pm
BH
We shall see.
by Dan Gulberry on May 12, 2012 at 10:47 pm
tlbd
Didn’t he arrive in tinny from the tropics?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 10:47 pm
The ABC is this evening running promos for Q and A. It takes the form of one clip of the audience laughing as Richo makes a joke about a question on trusting Labor, followed by another clip with Tony Jones sarcastically quipping that sacking Kevin Rudd did not do much good. This is a promo. On the supposedly balanced ABC.
Sky News has a similar promo running on their countdown sequence to their hourly news bulletins.
The media is not to blame for all Labor’s problems. However, it is the most biased media coverage I have ever seen and I lived in the UK during the peak support of Murdoch’s papers for Thatcher.
There is no way back for Labor in this climate, whoever leads the party. They must just hang on grimly for as long as they can and make reversal of their policies as close to impossible as they can.
by roaldan1000 on May 12, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Gweneth
I am sure the medicos will do a great job with the renovation! But seriously, all the best positive vibes are going your way!!
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:47 pm
I wasnt bron to annoy my say,
i wasnt born to annoy victoria
i wasnt born to annoy Fess,
i wasnt born to annoy Horsey
bloody hell i wasnt born even to annoy Bemused (but almost)
But i was born to annoy bloody Diog
by The Finnigans on May 12, 2012 at 10:49 pm
DG
I am guessing the initials CP
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Gweneth
Take care Gweneth!
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Puff,
I seem to remember William saying it wasn’t a sock puppet. There was quite a convo about IP addresses.
by This little black duck on May 12, 2012 at 10:49 pm
tlbd
I bought some grapefruit to start a diet. Damned son bought me 2 litres of Golden North Lime ice-cream. Progeny are evil.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Diogenes
Last time they were in Melbourne, my daughter went to see them. This time, i am not going to miss out!!
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:50 pm
OK, he didn’t arrive in a tinny. Must have been a hot air balloon.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 12, 2012 at 10:51 pm
BH
If you dont mind me asking, where did you hear the rumour?
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Apoplexy finally won?
by This little black duck on May 12, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Puff,
Go 50-50. That’s win-win.
by This little black duck on May 12, 2012 at 10:53 pm
victoria – sorry, can say no more. Dan and Gus probably feel same way
by BH on May 12, 2012 at 10:53 pm
I like a kill keny
by rummel on May 12, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Night guys. Time to get my beauty sleep!
by Gweneth on May 12, 2012 at 10:54 pm
vic
Cyril Plonker?
Let’s just say that this person attracts a lot of commentary on PB.
by Dan Gulberry on May 12, 2012 at 10:54 pm
TLBD
Could be from senate but hoping whiney piney.
by Schnappi on May 12, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Scringler……. re Snails(which are not to my taste)
Take care
__________________________
I uderstand that one should never eat them uncooked
There was a case of a yung boy in Sydney some years ago who being a showoff to his friends ate some raw snails
He then developed a serious disease spread by rat shit which snails eat if it is in their path in he garden__ and the shit carries certain bacteria and the boy was very ill till the hospital chanced on the cause and treated him… he survived
I know that the French soak them in salty water before cooking…I don’t like them..myself….and never eat shellfish either
by deblonay on May 12, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Are we talking about the minister who said he wouldn’t mind getting the speakers gig?
by Dee on May 12, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Finns
I try to find you annoying but you are so darn cute I just can’t do it.
by Diogenes on May 12, 2012 at 10:56 pm
night Gweneth
Enjoy mother’s day tomorrow!
by victoria on May 12, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Dee
Keep you eyes and ears peeled.
by Dan Gulberry on May 12, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Re ABC>>>Q and A/
______________
Why do they so oftenhave Juduth Slone ??
She is a very right academic with a hard- neo-liberal economic view .. a real”dry”Thatcherite viewpoint
by deblonay on May 12, 2012 at 10:57 pm
I use the beer to flavour the pine nuts with a bit of butter after ther are browned. Then stuff the lot into the trout. Place a few slices of lemon on the trout, add a slash of beer for good measure then BBQ.
It’s a good recipe to turn a heathy trout into mc pleasure.
by rummel on May 12, 2012 at 10:57 pm
So, if CP is moving from a prominent position in the HoR, can only mean it is linked to Ashby.
Hope springs eternal.
by Lynchpin on May 12, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Monsieur Finns:
by fiona on May 12, 2012 at 10:58 pm
There are no CP ministers.
by This little black duck on May 12, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Gweneth @ 1865
That surprises me as gall bladders are often removed because of a gall stone so it is not like a lot of other organs you can’t do without.
Anyway once again, best wishes.
BTW, I once had to undergo treatment in an outpatients oncology ward and the nurses were the most fantastic, cheerful bunch I have ever encountered. I hope yours are the same as they will buoy you up no end.
by bemused on May 12, 2012 at 10:59 pm